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Global markets enter a catalyst-dense week where multiple central bank decisions, ongoing US earnings, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may help shape near-term direction.
RBA rate decision: Market expectations lean towards a Target Cash Rate increase.
Global central banks: The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) both communicate within the same week, creating the potential for policy cross-currents.
US earnings: The earnings cycle continues with Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week.
Gold: Trading near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations.
RBA rate decision
RBA decision Tuesday, 3 February, 2:30 pm (AEDT)
RBA media conference: Tuesday, 3 February, 3:30 pm (AEDT)
A 67% likelihood of a rate rise is suggested on the RBA rate-tracker within the futures pricing framework, indicating a market-implied probability of a move.
Market impact
AUD pairs may respond quickly to any repricing of the rate path.
Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see rotation.
Government bond yields may adjust if expectations shift.
Gold has traded near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. For many traders, strength in gold is sometimes associated with defensive positioning, though gold prices can be volatile and can fall.
The US dollar, Treasury yield movements and geopolitical narrative often influence short-term direction.
Market impact
Continued strength may suggest some investors are leaning toward defensive positioning.
USD and sovereign yield movements often influence short-term direction.
After a strong advance, periods of consolidation or profit-taking are common.
Expected earnings date: Thursday, 5 February 2026 (US, after market close)/early Friday, 6 February 2026
Amazon’s earnings provide insight into global consumer spending trends, cloud infrastructure demand, and the monetisation of its ecosystem across retail, advertising, and subscription services.
Focus is expected to remain on performance across key business areas, along with commentary on cost efficiency, capital expenditure, and AI-related investments, including data centre expansion.
Key areas in focus
Online stores and third-party services
Amazon’s core retail business remains sensitive to discretionary consumer demand, particularly through the December-quarter holiday period. Markets are likely to focus on revenue growth and margins across both first-party retail and third-party seller services. Cost pressures will also be evaluated.
AWS (Amazon Web Services)
AWS is a key earnings driver. Investors are likely to focus on revenue growth rates, margin trends, and indications around enterprise cloud spending. AI workloads will also be noteworthy. Any commentary on capacity expansion and capex is likely to be closely watched.
Advertising services
Amazon’s advertising business has become an increasingly important profit contributor. Markets are likely to assess growth momentum, advertiser demand, and how advertising integrates across Amazon’s retail and Prime ecosystems.
Subscription services (including Prime)
Subscription revenue includes Prime memberships and related digital services. Investors may watch engagement, pricing dynamics, and retention trends as indicators of ecosystem strength.
Cost and margin framework
Management has previously emphasised the need for cost discipline across fulfilment, logistics, and corporate expenses. Reported operating margins and any updates on efficiency gains or reinvestment priorities across key business services will be of interest.
What happened last quarter
Amazon’s most recent quarterly update reported revenue growth and operating income outcomes, with AWS and advertising referenced as key contributors, alongside ongoing cost-control measures across the retail business.
The prior update also included discussion relevant to investment priorities in cloud and AI infrastructure, which continue to influence market expectations.
Last earnings key highlights
Revenue: US$180.2 billion
Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.95 (diluted)
AWS revenue: US$33.0 billion
Advertising services revenue: US$17.7 billion
Operating income: US$17.4 billion
How the market reacted last time
Amazon shares moved higher in after-hours trading following the previous release, based on reporting at the time.
Amazon Q3 2025 Consolidated Statements of Operations
What’s expected this quarter
Bloomberg consensus estimates point to year-on-year EPS growth for the quarter ended December 2025, with markets focused on the revenue outcome, operating margins, and AWS performance, given the importance of the December quarter (Q4) to Amazon’s earnings profile.
Market sentiment around Amazon may be sensitive to any disappointment in AWS growth, operating margins, or December-quarter (Q4 2025) retail performance, given the stock’s large index weighting within major US equity indices and its role in these areas.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±4% to ±5% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT, 28 January 2026.
Implied volatility was approximately 32% annualised at that time.
These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian investors
Amazon’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release. It may also influence sentiment towards ASX-listed companies with significant online sales exposure.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
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