震荡中的信号，港股能否迎来真正的底部？

震荡中的信号，港股能否迎来真正的底部？

10月，恒生指数延续回调格局，全月累计下跌948点，月初触及27,381点高位后快速回落至25,145点，跌幅达到61.8%的黄金比率水平，随后虽反弹至26,588点，但未能持续突破，显示短期受均线压制，向上动力有限。内地9月制造业PMI创半年低位且低于预期，加上全球宏观因素如美元走强、通胀压力持续，使恒指多次受挫，市场情绪谨慎。

进入11月，恒指夜期先行反弹69点，显示短期市场情绪略有回暖。此前美联储降息预期和中美贸易谈判利好消息已陆续落地，提供有限支撑，但短期缺乏新利好刺激，恒指重返高位可能性有限。若A股走势改善或科技股业绩超预期，恒指未来两个月仍有机会向今年高位27300点挑战。

本周一盘中，恒指回到26,000点附近震荡，显示市场仍在观望。技术面上，强势股指数微升，弱势股指数下降，优质板块仍具一定抗跌能力。整体来看，港股短期延续震荡整固格局，预计仍在25,300至26,300点区间震荡整理。

市场个股表现

从板块来看，科技股受业绩不及预期及全球芯片需求疲软影响出现回调；高股息蓝筹如银行、公用事业等抗跌板块成为资金避险首选；部分资源类个股受金属价格反弹支撑出现阶段性上涨；房地产板块风险仍存，部分开发商财务困境对市场情绪形成压制。总体而言，港股呈现“震荡筑底”态势，反映出市场在基本面、政策面及宏观因素间的博弈。

主要影响因素

1. 美联储政策预期主导资金流向
   多位美联储官员暗示降息窗口可能在明年上半年开启，短期推高风险资产包括港股和A股的资金流入。然而，美国通胀仍保持黏性，政策宽松节奏不确定，使市场短线资金频繁进出，缺乏持续上涨动力。对于港股而言，这意味着短期资金流入可能只是“阶段性反弹”，而非趋势性上涨。
2. 内地经济复苏分化，港股估值修复受限
   中国10月制造业PMI略低于荣枯线，显示复苏力度仍不足。尽管政策持续宽松，如专项债加速发行、房地产融资边际放松，但企业盈利恢复仍需时间。港股估值虽处历史低位，但市场仍在等待更强的基本面催化。投资者可关注政策落地力度及企业盈利改善的信号，这将决定港股后续的估值修复空间。
3. 地缘局势与全球风险偏好
   中东紧张局势持续，提升全球避险情绪，推动黄金、原油价格上行，部分风险资产承压。港股短期可能面临外资重新配置至美元或避险产品的压力，削弱流入力度。同时，人民币汇率波动也让南向资金趋于保守，进一步增加市场的不确定性。
4. 宏观经济数据与市场情绪
   美国通胀压力仍存，市场对降息预期降温，加息预期增强可能导致资金流出香港，从而对港股形成下行压力。中国经济数据虽显示复苏，但房地产市场调整拖累整体增长，使市场短期内难以形成强劲上涨动力。
5. 行业特定新闻
   中国科技行业监管政策仍是市场关注焦点。虽然监管有所缓和，但未来可能出台的新规仍对科技股产生压力，导致板块短期承压。投资者应关注科技股业绩发布及政策变化，以判断其中长期投资价值。
6. 地缘政治因素
   中美关系紧张、贸易摩擦及技术竞争仍在，对市场情绪形成影响。国际贸易环境的变化可能影响港企盈利前景，从而影响港股表现，尤其是出口导向型及高科技板块。

结构性机会与市场影响
尽管港股整体震荡，但结构性机会逐渐显现：高股息、现金流稳定的金融与公用事业板块受机构青睐；科技股短期承压，但AI、半导体及互联网龙头中长期前景仍被看好；新能源与资源板块受能源转型及金属价格上涨支撑；内地消费和旅游板块若政策落地，有望迎来补涨。

如果政策与市场流动性同步改善，恒指有望逐步筑底并展开估值修复；反之，若全球通胀回升或地缘风险加剧，市场可能继续维持震荡格局。短期来看，恒指预计将在25,300至26,300点区间震荡整固，投资者应关注内地经济数据、科技股业绩及全球宏观因素对市场的影响。

总体而言，港股正处筑底期，中长期投资价值逐步显现。投资者应保持审慎，密切关注市场动态，并结合板块机会进行合理配置，以应对潜在不确定性。

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免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。

联系方式：

墨尔本 03 8658 0603

悉尼    02 9188 0418

中国地区(中文）  400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903

作者：

Alena Wang | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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上周我们看到美联储在十月的利率决议一如市场预期的进行了25个基点的降息操作，在决议公布后全球的金融市场波动较为平淡；但是重点集中在鲍威尔和记者在一些尖锐问题上的看法和一些话外音当中。利率决议重要信息总结：预期管理方面：

• 全面否认12月必定降息的预期，美联储官员内部存在分歧
• 利率已经接近中性利率，在这个观点上相较于九月来说有所提升
• 在风险平衡方面表示通胀问题暂时比就业问题影响要大

‍就业数据方面：

• 就是市场放缓，但是病危显著恶化
• 将主要因素归功于劳动力供给下降

‍通胀

• 9月CPI表现温和，剔除关税核心PCE 2.3-2.4%
• 服务通胀（除住房）“横盘”，将逐步回落

‍资产负债表

• 将在12月1日起停止缩表，已达“充裕储备”
• 未来再投资短期美债，缩短久期
• 准备金将随现金增长自然下降，但“不会太久”

‍其他方面答记者问：

• AI投资对利率不敏感，对AI泡沫化表示不是工作重点
• 车贷和商业地产的次级贷违约局部、可控，未系统性蔓延
• 银行资本十分充足，整体金融体系稳健，压力测试并无风险

‍对鲍威尔讲话的数据交叉验证尽管从鲍威尔本次的利率决议中我们发现市场并没有过度敏感，甚至在鲍威尔口中一切欣欣向荣，数据空窗期只给美联储的决策带来了小部分影响，但是并不会对整体经济走势带来大的逆转，所以全球市场并未表现出任何的过度恐慌和逆向交易，在短暂波动中便产生了震荡的收敛，但是事实也许并无那么乐观。就业方面：根据已知数据，美国现阶段就业“稳固”：失业4.3%（BLS数据），随后陷入了数据真空期，而我们也可以从图表中看到，失业率数据在2025年整体上呈现上升态势，也许现在的真空隐藏了数据中最会促使市场衰退恐慌的一面，而鲍威尔通过一句整体稳健维持市场对美联储决策方向的信心；恰巧利用了该真空期对市场进行议论新的预期管理。

‍通胀方面：如果对美国通胀进行长期的观测会看到实际上美国通胀水平已从疫情期间回归常态，而逐渐在现水平出现下行放缓的迹象，尽管鲍威尔提及了关税可能带来的影响，但是随后中美会谈对关税带来的通胀影响实际上是多方利好，从通胀角度看，美联储的压力将会逐步缩减，但是也从长期中可以关注为何鲍威尔会重点强调中性利率的攀升，而这也会对市场对长期的利率预期产生一定程度的影响。

美国现在的次级贷问题：近期市场十分关注的二手车暴雷事件在两周前引起了一波小范围的恐慌，本次利率决议记者也就该问题对鲍威尔进行了相关问答，美联储主席在该话题上表现得非常含糊粉饰太平，基本上话语中处处透露本次事件影响范围较小，不会带来较大范围的扩散和金融市场的整体压力，但是实际数据并非如此支持。

从真实数据上看多重数据显示房地产由于受到了08年的教训影响，整体违约率水平处于低位看起来并不存在大范围暴雷的潜在危机，但是二手车和商业地产确实实打实的在数据上已经亮起了黄灯。如果接下来出现中等银行的挤兑和暴雷那将是对金融系统带来真正意义上的考验。结论来看：从近期中美更新合作协议，降低关税来看，美国的通胀压力或将不会过度挤压美联储后续的政策空间，但是美国的失业率真空也许会在公布后给美国带来一定程度的惊吓，而鲍威尔尽管言辞已经极其谨慎仍然在次级贷近期的问题上表态过于乐观，各类型数据并不支持该市场不存在隐患的定论，对于风险偏好类的投资，也许赛道的拥挤或将拱火危机进行进一步发酵，所以在投资偏好和风险均摊上投资者应进行更进一步的风险管理。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。

联系方式：

墨尔本 03 8658 0603

悉尼    02 9188 0418

中国地区(中文）  400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903

作者：

William Zhao | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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Multi-Timeframe (MTF) analysis is not just about checking the trend on the daily before trading on the hourly; ideally, it involves examining and aligning context, structure, and timing so that every trade is placed with purpose. 

When done correctly, MTF analysis can filter market noise, may help with timing of entry, and assist you in trading with the trending “tide,” not against it.

Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters

Every setup exists within a larger market story, and that story may often define the probability of a successful trade outcome.

Single-timeframe trading leads to the trading equivalent of tunnel vision, where the series of candles in front of you dominate your thinking, even though the broader trend might be shifting.

The most common reason traders may struggle is a false confidence based on a belief they are applying MTF analysis, but in truth, it’s often an ad-hoc, glance, not a structured process. 

When signals conflict, doubt creeps in, and traders hesitate, entering too late or exiting too early.

A systematic MTF process restores clarity, allowing you to execute with more conviction and consistency, potentially offering improved trading outcomes and providing some objective evidence as to how well your system is working.

Building Your Timeframe Hierarchy

Like many effective trading approaches, the foundation of a good MTF framework lies in simplicity. The more complex an approach, the less likely it is to be followed fully and the more likely it may impede a potential opportunity. 

Three timeframes are usually enough to capture the full picture without cluttering up your chart’s technical picture with enough information to avoid potential contradiction in action. 

Each timeframe tells a different part of the story — you want the whole book, not just a single chapter.

Scalpers might work on H1-M15-M5, while longer-term traders might prefer H4-H1-H15. 

The key is consistency in approach to build a critical mass of trades that can provide evidence for evaluation.

When all three timeframes align, the probability of at least an initial move in your desired direction may increase. 

An MTF breakout will attract traders whose preference for primary timeframe may be M15 AND hourly, AND 4-hourly, so increasing potential momentum in the move simply because more traders are looking at the same breakout than if it occurred on a single timeframe only.

Applying MTF Analysis

A robust system is built on clear, unambiguous statements within your trading plan. 

Ideally, you should define what each timeframe contributes to your decision-making process:

• Trend confirmed
• Structure validated
• Entry trigger aligned
• Risk parameters clear

When you enter on a lower timeframe, you are gaining some conviction from the higher one. Use the lower timeframe for fine-tuning and risk control, but if the higher timeframe flips direction, your bias must flip too.

Your original trading idea can be questioned and a decision made accordingly as to whether it is a good decision to stay in the trade or, as a minimum action, trail a stop loss to lock in any gains made to date.

Putting MTF into Action

So, if the goal is to embed MTF logic into your trade decisions, some step-by-step guidance may be useful on how to make this happen 

1. Define Your Timeframe Stack

Decide which three timeframes form your trading style-aligned approach. 

The key here is that as a starting point, you must “plant your flag” in one set, stick to it and measure to see how well or otherwise it works. 

Through doing this, you can refine based on evidence in the future.

One tip I have heard some traders suggest is that the middle timeframe should be at least two times your primary timeframe, and the slowest timeframe at least four times. 

2. Build and Use a Checklist

Codify your MTF logic into a repeatable routine of questions to ask, particularly in the early stages of implementing this as you develop your new habit.

Your checklist might include: 

• Is the higher-timeframe trend aligned?
• Is the structure supportive?
• Do I have a valid trigger?
• Is risk clearly defined?

This turns MTF from a concept into a practical set of steps that are clear and easy to action.

3. Consider Integrating MTF Into Open Trade Management

MTF isn’t just for entries; it can also be used as part of your exit decision-making.  

If your higher timeframe begins showing early signs of reversal, that’s a prompt to exit altogether, scale out through a partial close or tighten stops. 

By managing trades through the same multi-timeframe approach that you used to enter, you maintain logical consistency across the entire lifecycle of the trade.

Final Action

Start small. Choose one instrument, one timeframe set, and one strategy to apply it to.

Observe the clarity it adds to your decisions and outcomes.  Once you see a positive impact, you have evidence that it may be worth rolling out across other trading strategies you use in your portfolio.

Final Thought

Multi-Timeframe Analysis is not a trading strategy on its own. It is a worthwhile consideration in ALL strategies. 

It offers a wider lens through which you see the market’s true structure and potential strength of conviction.

Through aligning context, structure, and execution, you move from chasing an individual group of candles to trading with a more robust support for a decision.