2026 年上半年美股展望：慢下来，但方向仍向上

作为AI算力领域的绝对龙头，英伟达2026财年第三季度财报亮点密集，用实打实的数据印证了行业热度，也直接回应了市场核心疑问，成为科技产业的“强心剂”。

财报核心数据表现尤为强劲：收入环比增长22%、同比飙升62%，单季收入净增100亿美元，第四季度收入指引高达650亿美元，按此节奏全年收入有望冲击2000亿美元规模，增长势头迅猛。盈利端同样亮眼，本季度毛利率达到73.4%，虽同比略有波动但环比持续提升，公司更明确给出未来毛利率迈向75%的目标；运营收入与净利润均实现65%的同比增幅，每股收益年化增长67%，盈利质量与增长速度双双在线。

现金流与股东回报形成良性循环，第三季度自由现金流高达220亿美元，充沛资金既支撑了公司在AI芯片研发、产能扩张上的持续投入，上季度还拿出120亿美元用于分红和股票回购，实现了“研发扩产-利润增长-股东回馈”的正向循环。

针对市场最关心的两大问题，答案清晰明了：AI绝非短期泡沫，而是万亿级平台型产业变革——全球AI基础设施年投入已达3-4万亿美元，英伟达2026年在Blackwell和Ruby两大核心业务板块已锁定5000亿确定性收入，英国、德国、韩国等多国还在加速建设国家级AI基础设施，产业投入的真实性与持续性毋庸置疑；而电力、内存等潜在发展瓶颈，公司也已提前完成规划部署，无需过度担忧。

投资者反应积极，财报发布后盘后股价涨幅超5%。从长期来看，AI技术渗透各行各业的过程中，算力需求将持续释放，英伟达在GPU领域的技术壁垒和市场份额优势短期内难以撼动，有观点认为，若保持当前发展态势，明年年底其股价突破300美元是大概率事件。

英伟达的亮眼业绩，本质是全球AI产业爆发式增长的缩影。随着AI技术深度融入实体经济，算力作为核心支撑的需求将持续扩大，英伟达也将继续成为观察科技产业变革的重要风向标。

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随着 2025 年行情接近尾声，市场开始将注意力投向 2026 年。利率周期处于尾段，AI 投资进入应用扩张期，而全球主要经济体都在重新权衡增长与通胀，投资者关心的问题回到最核心的一点：美股在明年上半年会怎么走？

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从大摩最新的宏观预测来看，2026 年上半年更可能呈现温和放缓的走势。不是大幅冲高，也不像见顶式下跌，更像是进入了一个“换挡阶段”。市场在消化上一轮快速上涨后的累积增量，同时为下半年可能出现的重新提速做准备。

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美国经济：略有降温，但基本面依旧稳固

各机构的预测普遍认为，2026 年上半年美国经济会略有放缓。关税、移民政策调整带来的滞后影响开始显现，消费增速可能有所回落，一些行业也会进入自然的景气消化期。但更大的背景是，美国经济的底层韧性仍在，尤其是 AI 投资带来的支撑。

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过去几年，AI 投资主要集中在大型科技公司、云服务商和芯片企业。而到 2026 年，这类投入将逐步扩展至制造业、能源、医疗、零售、物流等更广泛的传统行业，意味着固定资产投资不会快速下滑，企业生产率有望继续提升。这将成为拖住经济下限的关键力量。

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经济不强但也不弱的状态，对股市有两个直接影响：不会有明显的下行压力，但也不会出现强刺激驱动的大幅上涨。

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美联储：利率进入平稳区间，不急也不紧

政策环境将成为 2026 年影响市场节奏的重要因素。预期显示，美联储会在明年初把联邦基金利率降到 3.5% 至 3.75% 区间，之后进入为期3个月的静观期。

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这意味着几个变化：

• 货币政策不会继续明显收紧
• 降息节奏也不会特别激进
• 市场对流动性的预期更趋稳定

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这样的利率环境对科技行业尤为有利。一旦长期利率不再上行，大型科技公司的估值压力明显缓解，加上 AI 投资还在继续推进，科技板块仍是支撑大盘的核心力量。从伯克希尔 2025 年 Q3 的持仓变化来看，巴菲特体系首次新增 GOOGL（Alphabet A 类股），虽然仓位占比仅 1.62%，但因为这是“第一次买入”，这意味着巴菲特体系对“AI 必需基础设施”的认可。虽然巴菲特本人多次说“我不懂科技”，但过去几年伯克希尔对科技公司的态度明显软化，尤其是苹果（AAPL）成为伯克希尔最大重仓后，科技类资产的占比逐年上升。本次买进谷歌意味着，谷歌已从“科技成长股”变成伯克希尔眼中的“稳定型现金流企业”，AI 基础设施（尤其是 Google Cloud）被认为有长期稳定价值。

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整体来看，2026 年是政策逐步转为中性的一年，既没有紧货币的紧迫感，也缺乏进一步大规模降息带来的强刺激。因此，市场更可能进入一种稳中偏暖的节奏。

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企业盈利：保持增长，但节奏从快速转向正常

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美股过去两年的强势表现很大程度上来自企业盈利的持续提升。据FactSet统计，2025年第三季度，标普 500 指数的净利润率创下了自 2009 年（FactSet可取得该指标历史数据的起始时间）以来的最高水平，达到 13.0%，超过此前 2021 年第二季度创下的历史高点。本季度也实现了净利润率的连续增长。到 2026 年，这一逻辑仍在延续，只是增速会比 2025 年略有下降。

分析师预测，标普 500 全年盈利增速预计在 15% 左右，而增幅主要来自 2026 年下半年。上半年更像是盈利维持高位、科技板块持续贡献、其他行业稳中略慢的格局。

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从行业表现看，科技、半导体、云计算、网络安全等与 AI 相关的板块仍将是增长主力。医疗健康行业的稳定性也会在明年进一步显现，在高波动的外部环境下，更容易赢得资金的青睐。相较之下，房地产、原材料等行业仍较弱，难以对指数形成直接推动。

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这意味着美股大盘的结构不会出现明显破裂，但上涨动力会比今年柔和一些。

2026 年上半年，美股的走势大概率以震荡上行为主。

第一季度可能表现平平，市场等待降息落地，同时观察经济放缓的幅度。

进入第二季度，盈利预期更加明确之后，指数可能重新启动，向全年目标区间靠拢。

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按照目前机构预测，标普 500 在 2026 年底有望上涨至 7800 点。但上半年不会走得太快，整体呈现平稳攀升的节奏。科技板块依旧是带动大盘的决定性力量。AI 的渗透速度在提升，从服务器和芯片扩展到能源、制造和医疗等实际应用场景，这将使科技行业在经济放缓期依然保持高景气。

对投资者而言，上半年科技板块依旧是最值得关注的方向。即使市场短期出现波动，也更多属于估值消化阶段。要真正引发系统性大跌，通常需要利率重新上行、企业盈利出现断崖式下滑，或发生超预期的重大负面事件，而当前并没有看到这些信号。即使市场出现调整，更可能是结构性回调，例如部分涨幅过大的科技公司短期消化估值，而不是整个市场的趋势反转。

2026 上半年需要的不是激情，而是耐心

如果把 2025 年视为一轮强劲上涨，那么 2026 年上半年更像一段调整节奏的过渡期。经济略有降温、政策逐渐中性、企业盈利保持增长，在这样的组合下，市场不太可能走出暴涨行情，但持续向上的趋势仍然清晰。

对投资者而言，明年上半年更重要的不是追求短期行情，而是稳住仓位、优化配置、在震荡中提前布局下半年的机会。

市场在慢下来，但方向依旧向上。

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NVIDIA delivered a resounding answer to AI bubble concerns this morning, reporting third-quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street expectations and signalling sustained momentum in AI infrastructure spending.

The chip giant posted adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share on revenue of $57.01 billion, beating analyst estimates of $1.26 EPS on $54.92 billion.

Revenue surged 62% year-over-year, with the critical data centre segment delivering $51.2 billion against expectations of $49 billion.

More importantly, NVIDIA projected fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $65 billion, significantly above the $61.66 billion consensus, indicating demand for AI accelerators shows no signs of cooling.

The company's next-generation Blackwell architecture is seeing unprecedented demand from cloud providers building out massive AI infrastructure. CEO Jensen Huang simply stated: "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out."

NVIDIA shares had declined nearly 8% in November as prominent investors raised concerns about AI valuations. Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro completely exited its approximately $100 million position, while SoftBank divested $5.8 billion in holdings.

However, the continued capital expenditure by Big Tech customers — Microsoft alone spent nearly $35 billion in its most recent quarter, with roughly half allocated to chips — suggests the buildout phase is far from complete.

Beyond data centres, NVIDIA’s gaming revenue reached $4.3 billion (up 30% year-over-year), professional visualisation generated $760 million (up 56%), and automotive/robotics sales hit $592 million (up 32%).

The near-term trajectory remains strong, with the company continuing to capture the lion's share of AI chip demand in a market showing no signs of saturation.

Experts Split on Bitcoin's Trajectory

Bitcoin is at a vital inflection point, trading around $92,300 after briefly dipping below $90,000 for the first time in seven months.

The pressure stems from retail selling, leveraged trading liquidations, and institutional positioning, creating an environment where experts are split as to whether this is the end of the cycle or just a healthy pullback.

Glassnode data show approximately 65,200 BTC—valued at roughly $6.08 billion—was sold at a loss within 24 hours, indicating capitulation among short-term holders who bought near recent highs.

Yet, while retail investors panic-sell, wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC have increased to 1,384, a four-month high. Over 102,000 whale transactions exceeding $100,000 and 29,000 transactions over $1 million have been made this week, potentially making this the most active whale week of 2025.

This accumulation pattern during fear-driven selloffs has historically preceded medium-term recoveries (though past performance offers no guarantees).

For now, the market remains on a knife's edge, with high volatility seemingly the only certainty.

Fed Still Faces Divide as Data Starts Flowing

The Federal Reserve stands at a crossroads heading into its December 9-10 meeting, with internal divisions threatening to derail what was considered a near-certain third consecutive rate cut.

The released minutes of the October FOMC exposed strongly differing views within the Fed about the December policy decision, with many suggesting no more cuts are needed through the end of 2025.

Complicating things further is the data pause from the recent 44-day government shutdown. The Labor Department announced that October and November employment data won't be released until December 16 — six days after the FOMC meeting concludes — depriving the Fed of crucial labor market information.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a December rate cut is "far from a foregone conclusion," and there is "a growing chorus" among officials to "at least wait a cycle" before cutting again.

This represents the highest level of internal discord during Powell's tenure, with predictions of potentially four or five dissents at the December meeting — the most since 1992.

The December meeting will reveal whether the Fed can maintain the credibility needed to navigate a U.S. economy caught between stubborn inflation and (seemingly) weak labour market.

Every data release and Fed official comment between now and then will move markets as investors search for clues about the Fed’s next move.