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这样的利率环境对科技行业尤为有利。一旦长期利率不再上行，大型科技公司的估值压力明显缓解，加上 AI 投资还在继续推进，科技板块仍是支撑大盘的核心力量。从伯克希尔 2025 年 Q3 的持仓变化来看，巴菲特体系首次新增 GOOGL（Alphabet A 类股），虽然仓位占比仅 1.62%，但因为这是“第一次买入”，这意味着巴菲特体系对“AI 必需基础设施”的认可。虽然巴菲特本人多次说“我不懂科技”，但过去几年伯克希尔对科技公司的态度明显软化，尤其是苹果（AAPL）成为伯克希尔最大重仓后，科技类资产的占比逐年上升。本次买进谷歌意味着，谷歌已从“科技成长股”变成伯克希尔眼中的“稳定型现金流企业”，AI 基础设施（尤其是 Google Cloud）被认为有长期稳定价值。
在人工智能与金融结合的大潮下，Alpha Arena 和 RockFlow 分别以不同方式探索 AI 在投资交易中的应用。Alpha Arena 是一个开源加密货币交易竞赛，由 Nof1.ai 发起。平台将多个顶级大语言模型（如 GPT-5、Claude、Gemini、Grok 等）赋予真实资金，在去中心化永续合约市场中自主交易。每个模型完全独立决策，从行情分析、下单到风险管理都由 AI 执行，所有交易记录在链上公开透明，可供研究者和公众观察。而RockFlow最近也推出了美股 AI 交易竞赛，允许用户在真实或模拟账户中使用平台内置 AI 助手“Bobby”进行策略交易。
图1：Alpha Arena第一季开源数字货币交易
Alpha Arena 的首季17天交易结果显示Qwen 3 Max 获得冠军，初始 1 万美元本金实现约 +22% 回报。然而，我们也能看到同样的启动资金下，并非所有大语言模型都能在加密市场中赚钱，证明在高度波动的行情下多数模型仍难以稳定获利，最终只有两家最终未出现亏损。
此外，据The Times of India报道，印度一商人因盲目信任 AI 投资 APP 被骗，多次投入后无法提现，最终报案，损失 2.3 亿印度卢比（约数千万人民币）。
AI 本身中性，但市场和人性复杂，AI 投资可能被滥用作诈骗噱头，亦非“必胜法宝”，切勿盲从所谓的“稳赚收益”。即便在AI时代，人类的实践经验和判断力依然是市场正常运作的重要保障。
银行与央行忧虑：AI 投资热潮与泡沫风险
随着 AI 在金融市场的应用越来越广，其潜在风险也日益显现。中国证券监管机构指出，AI 生成虚假“投资内幕”和股市传闻的能力，使造谣更容易传播，可能误导散户。
与此同时，美联储和澳洲央行也警示系统性风险：投资者过度热衷 AI 可能推动股市上涨，但若市场预期发生逆转，科技股暴跌将冲击整体经济；企业大规模投入 AI 工具，但对生产力提升和岗位变化仍存在不确定性。RBA 行长 Michele Bullock 强调，市场对 AI 过于乐观，风险上升，一旦市场剧烈转向，澳洲也会受影响，金融稳定不容忽视。AI 不再只是辅助工具，它可能主动参与决策，其影响范围可及整个市场。在监管尚不完善的背景下，投资者需保持警惕，理性对待 AI 投资。
同时，国际机构也对 AI 热潮可能带来的泡沫风险提出警示。国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最近的世界银行年会上，将 AI 投资列为“三重风险”之一（另两个是关税和公共债务），IMF 研究主管 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas 表示，目前 AI 投资的“估值与繁荣”迹象与 2000 年末互联网泡沫相似，存在泡沫风险。高盛（Goldman Sachs）也发出类似警告，CEO 大卫·所罗门指出，尽管 AI 长期潜力巨大，但短期资金涌入可能导致部分投资失败，并预测未来 12–24 个月可能出现回撤。
资本市场对 AI 的热情推动了大量资金流入概念股，但过度乐观可能被误导。
结论：AI 炒股是趋势，但不能盲从
综上所述，人工智能（AI）已深度融入真实投资领域。大型机构如主权基金利用 AI 优化交易，节省巨额成本；普通投资者也开始尝试 AI 自动交易。然而，市场操纵、系统性风险、泡沫和诈骗等风险也日益凸显。
对投资人来说：
可以关注 AI 辅助投资工具，但不要把 AI 当作万能赚钱机器。
投资决策仍然要有基本面、估值、风险管理这些老套路。
对于声称 “用 AI 一夜暴富” 的平台，要特别小心，多做验证。
从长期看，真正能靠 AI 获得优势的，是那些把 AI 融入交易系统、风控体系、策略研究的机构或个人。
这样的利率环境对科技行业尤为有利。一旦长期利率不再上行，大型科技公司的估值压力明显缓解，加上 AI 投资还在继续推进，科技板块仍是支撑大盘的核心力量。从伯克希尔 2025 年 Q3 的持仓变化来看，巴菲特体系首次新增 GOOGL（Alphabet A 类股），虽然仓位占比仅 1.62%，但因为这是“第一次买入”，这意味着巴菲特体系对“AI 必需基础设施”的认可。虽然巴菲特本人多次说“我不懂科技”，但过去几年伯克希尔对科技公司的态度明显软化，尤其是苹果（AAPL）成为伯克希尔最大重仓后，科技类资产的占比逐年上升。本次买进谷歌意味着，谷歌已从“科技成长股”变成伯克希尔眼中的“稳定型现金流企业”，AI 基础设施（尤其是 Google Cloud）被认为有长期稳定价值。
NVIDIA delivered a resounding answer to AI bubble concerns this morning, reporting third-quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street expectations and signalling sustained momentum in AI infrastructure spending.
The chip giant posted adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share on revenue of $57.01 billion, beating analyst estimates of $1.26 EPS on $54.92 billion.
Revenue surged 62% year-over-year, with the critical data centre segment delivering $51.2 billion against expectations of $49 billion.
More importantly, NVIDIA projected fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $65 billion, significantly above the $61.66 billion consensus, indicating demand for AI accelerators shows no signs of cooling.
The company's next-generation Blackwell architecture is seeing unprecedented demand from cloud providers building out massive AI infrastructure. CEO Jensen Huang simply stated: "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out."
NVIDIA shares had declined nearly 8% in November as prominent investors raised concerns about AI valuations. Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro completely exited its approximately $100 million position, while SoftBank divested $5.8 billion in holdings.
However, the continued capital expenditure by Big Tech customers — Microsoft alone spent nearly $35 billion in its most recent quarter, with roughly half allocated to chips — suggests the buildout phase is far from complete.
Beyond data centres, NVIDIA’s gaming revenue reached $4.3 billion (up 30% year-over-year), professional visualisation generated $760 million (up 56%), and automotive/robotics sales hit $592 million (up 32%).
The near-term trajectory remains strong, with the company continuing to capture the lion's share of AI chip demand in a market showing no signs of saturation.
Experts Split on Bitcoin's Trajectory
Bitcoin is at a vital inflection point, trading around $92,300 after briefly dipping below $90,000 for the first time in seven months.
The pressure stems from retail selling, leveraged trading liquidations, and institutional positioning, creating an environment where experts are split as to whether this is the end of the cycle or just a healthy pullback.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit its lowest reading since April
Glassnode data show approximately 65,200 BTC—valued at roughly $6.08 billion—was sold at a loss within 24 hours, indicating capitulation among short-term holders who bought near recent highs.
Yet, while retail investors panic-sell, wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC have increased to 1,384, a four-month high. Over 102,000 whale transactions exceeding $100,000 and 29,000 transactions over $1 million have been made this week, potentially making this the most active whale week of 2025.
This accumulation pattern during fear-driven selloffs has historically preceded medium-term recoveries (though past performance offers no guarantees).
For now, the market remains on a knife's edge, with high volatility seemingly the only certainty.
Fed Still Faces Divide as Data Starts Flowing
The Federal Reserve stands at a crossroads heading into its December 9-10 meeting, with internal divisions threatening to derail what was considered a near-certain third consecutive rate cut.
The released minutes of the October FOMC exposed strongly differing views within the Fed about the December policy decision, with many suggesting no more cuts are needed through the end of 2025.
Odds of a rate cut have flipped over the past week
Complicating things further is the data pause from the recent 44-day government shutdown. The Labor Department announced that October and November employment data won't be released until December 16 — six days after the FOMC meeting concludes — depriving the Fed of crucial labor market information.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a December rate cut is "far from a foregone conclusion," and there is "a growing chorus" among officials to "at least wait a cycle" before cutting again.
This represents the highest level of internal discord during Powell's tenure, with predictions of potentially four or five dissents at the December meeting — the most since 1992.
The December meeting will reveal whether the Fed can maintain the credibility needed to navigate a U.S. economy caught between stubborn inflation and (seemingly) weak labour market.
Every data release and Fed official comment between now and then will move markets as investors search for clues about the Fed’s next move.
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