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美元：上行风险仍存 – 荷兰国际集团
ING策略师Francesco Pesole、Frantisek Taborsky和Chris Turner预计，美国CPI将略高于共识，从而强化美元支撑。他们认为，随着市场重新评估10月美联储加息概率，美元有望进一步走强，尽管定价可能不会超过50%。他们指出，短期内美元存在高估和仓位拥挤，但美国通胀风险使美元兑欧元/美元的底部保持完好。
美国CPI风险支撑美元
"我们预计，今天公布的美国CPI月率将比共识高出0.1个百分点，无论是整体CPI（0.7%）还是核心CPI（0.3%）都是如此。虽然这还不足以让市场计入10月美联储加息概率超过50%，但它可以强化市场对未来进一步收紧政策的预期，并由此支撑美元底部。欧元/美元在任何反弹之前，可能会重新测试近期低点。"
"由于仓位过度和短期高估与全球债券反弹同时出现，美元昨日表现疲软。美联储的John Williams发表鸽派言论，对美元形成了一定压力，但更多是通过支撑风险情绪，而非在短端引发明显的鸽派重新定价。"
"今天，所有目光都将聚焦9月份美国通胀数据。市场共识预计整体CPI月率加速至0.6%，核心CPI月率为0.2%。我们的宏观团队预计数据会略热一些，分别为0.7%和0.3%。"
"因此，我们预计美元今天将有所重新走强。市场可能会小幅上调对10月加息的预期，但要使定价重新回到50%以上（目前为20%），我们可能需要看到整体CPI接近1.0%月率和/或核心CPI达到0.4%月率。"
(本文由人工智能工具协助创建，并经编辑审核。 了解更多。)
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