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欧元:持仓转为净空头 – 美国纽约银行

Geoff Yu 指出,BNY Mellon 的 iFlow 所追踪的托管客户已重新转为欧元净空头,对冲活动正推动资金从欧元区轮动至瑞士、北欧经济体和英国。他强调,EUR/USD 目前的持仓并未出现激进的低配,这意味着仍有进一步抛售的空间,而在曲线中不再计入紧缩之前,该货币难以形成持久底部。
托管资金流显示进一步下行
"iFlow 显示,托管客户目前再次转为欧元净空头。这在第二季度大部分时间里都是默认仓位,因为市场争相买入美元,但最新的变化更具欧元特征,主要由跨境客户增加对冲所推动。"
"欧元仍未出现激进的低配。EUR 持仓的急剧摆动——从相对于过去 1 年滚动均值约高配 50% 到略微低配——令人瞩目,但从绝对水平看,当前 EUR 空头并不过度。"
"与整体 EUR 持仓不同,EUR/USD 持仓相较近期历史并不疲弱,这表明更多的 EUR 对冲发生在交叉盘上。iFlow 指出,部分资金正从欧元区轮动至瑞士和北欧经济体,这些地区的财政实力无可置疑,而英国也受益其中。"
"欧元走弱缓解了欧洲其他地区收紧政策的压力。作为副产品,这种轮动推高了欧洲其他地区的有效汇率,并在边际上降低了当地进一步收紧的必要性。"
"当前 EUR 持仓和估值距离 2024 年的水平仍相去甚远,仍有进一步抛售的空间。我们不愿在曲线中尚未计入紧缩之前就判断该货币已经见底。"
(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,并经编辑审核。 了解更多。)
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