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油价上涨拖累欧元/加元,欧元承压

- 原油价格上涨支撑加元,令欧元/加元承压。
- 地缘政治发展以及持续进行的美伊谈判限制了全球油价的涨幅。
- 交易员等待欧元区10月HICP数据,以判断欧洲央行未来的货币政策。
欧元/加元在前一日录得涨幅后回落,周二欧洲时段交投于1.5620附近。由于加元(CAD)受到原油价格上涨的强劲支撑,这一货币对面临挑战。作为美国最大的原油供应国,加拿大的经济和货币仍与全球能源市场表现高度相关。
不过,油价的潜在涨幅仍受到持续地缘政治发展的限制。由于伊朗确认,与美国就解决双方持续八个月冲突而进行的间接讨论仍在继续,原油价格可能面临进一步阻力。这些谈判是在伊朗官员与卡塔尔调解人进行了数日磋商之后展开的,磋商提出了修订方案,但未能取得突破。
交易员正等待定于周三公布的欧元区10月消费者物价调和指数(HICP)初值。该数据预计将显著影响市场对欧洲央行(ECB)即将作出的货币政策决定的预期。
市场预测显示,整体HICP年率增幅预计将小幅加快至3.9%,高于9月的3.8%。与此同时,剔除食品、能源、酒精和烟草等波动性项目的核心HICP预计将维持在2.5%的年率不变。
法国利差维持高位,欧元风险溢价持续存在
ING分析师指出,法国国债利差“昨天并未受益于较低的油价”,并表示“目前高于150个基点的水平已成为新的常态”。他们认为,在这一背景下,“欧元仍然难以摆脱持续存在的风险溢价”,而要让油价从当前水平持续走低,“能源方面还需要取得更切实的进展”。
下表显示了 欧元 (EUR) 对所列主要货币 今日的变动百分比。 欧元 对 加拿大元 最弱。
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | -0.04% | 0.11% | -0.19% | 0.38% | 0.04% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.05% | -0.22% | 0.35% | -0.02% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.13% | -0.15% | 0.41% | 0.05% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.13% | -0.30% | 0.27% | -0.09% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.57% | 0.20% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.38% | -0.35% | -0.41% | -0.27% | -0.57% | -0.35% | -0.46% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.05% | 0.09% | -0.20% | 0.35% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.19% | -0.10% | 0.46% | 0.10% |
热图显示了主要货币相对于其他货币的百分比变化。基础货币从左列中选取,而报价货币从顶部行中选取。例如,如果您从左列选择 欧元 并沿着水平线移动到 美元 ,则框中显示的百分比变化将表示 EUR (基数)/ USD (报价)。
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