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澳元：鸽派加息令澳元承压 – 德国商业银行
德国商业银行（Commerzbank）的 Norman Liebke 指出，澳大利亚央行（RBA）将利率上调至 4.85%，但由于市场将此举视为鸽派，澳元走低。随着增长和劳动力市场预期走软，且通胀部分受外部石油冲击推动，他预计不会进一步加息，并认为澳元的走势将取决于美国和欧洲的利率预期。
澳储行谨慎立场与外部通胀驱动因素
"澳大利亚央行今晨将政策利率上调 25 个基点至 4.85%。然而，由于这一举措已被市场和彭博调查的共识广泛预期，澳元未能从中受益：澳元/美元在消息公布后立即下跌约 0.3%。"
"在声明中，澳储行强调，通胀仍远高于其 2-3% 的目标区间，并且预计要到 2027 年底才会回到该区间，较此前预期晚了大约三个季度。这也可能对通胀预期构成问题，因为至少从调查类指标来看，近期无论短端还是长端都出现了更明显的上升。乍一看，这听起来相当鹰派。然而，澳元却走弱了，而且即便在今天加息之后，金融市场也没有计入进一步加息。那么，原因是什么呢？"
"澳储行强调，经济已经走弱，房价下跌等情况便是体现。随着利率现在更高，预计明年住宅投资将走弱、私人消费将放缓，这应会逐步帮助通胀回落。增长前景也已恶化：澳储行目前预计到 2027 年底增长仅为 1.3%，低于此前预测的 1.6%。"
"今天的加息仅以 6 票对 3 票获得通过，这进一步凸显了董事会内部日益增强的谨慎态度。总体而言，进一步加息的门槛可能相当高，我们不预计利率会再次上调。短期内，澳元可能会因这次相对鸽派的加息而继续承压。"
"不过，往前看，其表现很可能主要取决于美国和欧元区利率预期如何演变。尽管我们的经济学家预计 12 月会加息，但当前市场对进一步货币紧缩的预期可能过头了，这最终可能有利于澳元。"
（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。了解更多。）
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BNY Markets 的 John Velis 维持观点认为，美联储将在 12 月再加息一次，以在最新一次按兵不动后维护公信力。他认为，进入 2027 年前景将更加不明朗，并指出通胀主要由供给端驱动，且预期已被锚定。Velis 怀疑更高的利率能否解决供给压力，但警告称，需求端风险可能会在之后证明进一步收紧政策是合理的。
