The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here.
Any references to Australian or international shares, sectors, indices, ETFs, crypto-related stocks or other instruments are provided for market commentary and watchlist purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or adopt any investment strategy. International markets may involve additional risks, including currency fluctuations, regulatory differences, market structure differences, reduced liquidity and higher volatility. Company-specific, sector-specific and macroeconomic risks may also affect performance.
Commentary on geopolitical developments, economic data, central bank decisions, earnings, policy changes and other global or financial market events is based on information available at the time of publication and may change without notice. Such events can lead to sudden market moves, price gaps, reduced liquidity, wider spreads and increased volatility, particularly in leveraged products such as CFDs. Forward-looking statements, expectations and scenario analysis are inherently uncertain and should not be relied on as guarantees of future market behaviour or outcomes.
金价预测：黄金/美元在美国CPI和美联储官员讲话备受关注之际走低
- XAU/USD自4,200美元区域回落后，延续反转，触及低于4,150美元的盘中高点。
- 美元小幅走弱，令黄金本周未进一步回落。
- 美联储威廉姆斯的鸽派言论周二给美元带来看跌压力。
尽管美国国债收益率走低，黄金（XAU/USD）周三仍延续跌势，投资者在场外观望，等待当天晚些时候公布的9月美国消费者物价指数（CPI）报告以及美联储（Fed）官员的讲话。周一在4,200美元区域遭遇拒绝后，XAU/USD货币对已回落至4,150美元下方，技术指标显示看跌动能正在增强。
美联储官员周二未能为美元提供任何显著支撑。纽约联储主席约翰-威廉姆斯在接受彭博采访时表示，美国央行今年可能还需要再加息一次，但他也强调，自己认为2027年没有必要将借贷成本进一步上调。
这些言论与市场预期明年至少还会加息两次形成对比，并提升了市场对周三美国CPI数据和周四生产者物价指数（PPI）数据的关注。市场共识预计，9月消费者价格将进一步加速上升，这将为美联储再次加息铺平道路，最有可能是在12月。
技术分析：动量指标转为看跌
由于本周早些时候未能突破月度交易区间顶部4,230美元区域，XAU/USD正显示出日益增强的看跌动能。4小时相对强弱指数（14）已跌破关键的50水平，暗示看涨压力正在减弱，而移动平均趋同背离（MACD）已转为负值，在近期上涨后进一步强化了修正倾向。
价格走势已延伸至周一和周二低点下方，即4,150美元区域，使4,070美元区域的区间底部成为焦点。若确认跌破该区域，将暴露4,000美元这一心理关口。
上行方面，若突破前述4,230美元区域（10月2日高点），将确认一个倒头肩形态，并将焦点转向9月25日高点，即略高于4,300美元的几个点位。
(本故事的技术分析由人工智能工具协助撰写。 了解更多。)
黄金常见问题（FAQ）
黄金在人类历史上发挥了关键作用，因为它被广泛用作价值储存和交换媒介。目前，除了它的光泽和用于珠宝之外，黄金还被广泛视为避险资产，这意味着它被认为是动荡时期的一项不错的投资。黄金还被广泛视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具，因为它不依赖于任何特定的发行方或政府。
各国央行是最大的黄金持有者。为了在动荡时期支撑本国货币，各国央行倾向于使储备多样化，并购买黄金，以提高人们对经济和货币实力的看法。高黄金储备可以成为一个国家偿付能力的信任来源。根据世界黄金协会的数据，各国央行在2022年增加了1136吨黄金储备，价值约700亿美元。这是有记录以来最高的年度购买量。中国、印度和土耳其等新兴经济体的央行正在迅速增加黄金储备。
黄金与美元和美国国债呈负相关，两者都是主要的储备资产和避险资产。当美元贬值时，黄金往往会上涨，使投资者和央行能够在动荡时期实现资产多元化。黄金与风险资产也呈负相关。股市的反弹往往会压低金价，而风险较高的市场的抛售往往有利于黄金。
由于各种各样的因素，价格可能会变动。地缘政治不稳定或对深度衰退的担忧可能会迅速推高黄金价格，因其避险地位。作为一种低收益资产，黄金往往会随着利率下降而上涨，而较高的资金成本通常会拖累黄金。尽管如此，由于资产以美元(XAU/USD)定价，大多数走势取决于美元(USD)的表现。强势美元倾向于控制金价，而弱势美元则可能推高金价。
Related Articles
