市场资讯及洞察

Quantitative trading, often referred to as quant trading, is a trading strategy that relies on the use of mathematical models, statistical analysis, and data-driven approaches to make trading decisions. Often associated with the creation of specific automated trading systems, terms Expert advisors (EAs) on MetaTrader platforms, it a perceived as a specialist branch of the trading world. This article offers a brief overview of quantitative trading and some of the key processes involved in employing this as a trading approach.

What is Quantitative Trading? In a nutshell, quantitative trading involves the systematic application of algorithms and quantitative techniques. These algorithms are designed to identify patterns, trends, and opportunities in financial markets by analysing historical and real-time data, ultimately providing the required information to execute trades.

Quantitative Trading Process: From Idea to Action There are several steps involved in the quantitative trading system process that must all be actioned prior to the implementation of any such strategy in live markets. Data Analysis: Quantitative traders analyse vast amounts of historical and real-time data, including price movements, trading volume, and other relevant financial metrics. They use this data to develop models and strategies that aim to predict future market movements.

Arguably, the increase in the development of machine learning and AI suggests that this approach may evolve further, although a detailed exploration of this is beyond the scope of this introductory article. Algorithm Development: Quantitative traders design algorithms based on the data analysis stage that implement their trading strategies. These algorithms are programmed to follow predefined rules for entering and exiting trades, managing risk, and making other trading-related decisions.

Strategy Testing: Before deploying their algorithms in real markets, quantitative traders extensively test their strategies using historical data. This process is twofold and involves back-testing, which helps traders evaluate how their strategies would have performed in past market conditions, and forward testing to ensure the validity of any back-test results. Risk Management: Risk management should be part of any strategy, and quantitative trading emphasizes strict risk management.

Traders set parameters to control the size of positions, the maximum acceptable loss per trade, strategies to reduce profit risk (i.e. giving too much back to the market from winning positions), and overall portfolio risk in specific and often adverse market conditions. These parameters help mitigate potential losses which of course is crucial in any trading approach. High-Frequency Trading (HFT): Some quantitative trading strategies are categorised as high-frequency trading.

This is where trades are executed at extremely fast speeds, often in milliseconds. HFT relies on technology infrastructure and low-latency connections to execute a large number of trades in a short time and despite concerns of this as an approach on market pricing seems to be subject to ever-increasing popularity as an approach worth consideration. Additional Potential Challenges Outside of risk management related to quant-driven trades themselves, there are four other critical considerations that must be taken into account and may contribute to the success or failure of a quantitative trading approach.

Data Quality and Consistency: Accurate and consistent data is crucial for quant trading. Discrepancies or errors in data can lead to faulty models and incorrect trading decisions. Overfitting (or Curve Fitting): Developing models that perform well in historical testing but fail to work in real-time trading is a common risk.

Overfitting occurs when models are overly complex and tailored to historical data noise rather than genuine market trends. Market Dynamics: Market conditions can change rapidly, and strategies that work in one type of market may not perform well in another. Adaptability is key to staying successful in different market environments.

Some quantitative models run all the time, riding out the fluctuations associated with different market conditions, while others may have "switches" that turn the model on or off based on specific criteria. Technology Infrastructure: Quantitative trading relies heavily on technology, including fast computers, low-latency connections, and robust trading platforms. Maintaining and updating this infrastructure is essential.

Summary Quantitative trading is frequently employed by institutions and professional traders who have access to advanced, specialist technology and data resources. It allows for systematic and disciplined trading while minimizing emotional biases. As technology develops, its prevalence is likely to increase.

However, it requires expertise in programming, data analysis, ongoing monitoring systems, and a deep understanding of financial markets to be successful.

OPEC stands for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Founded in 1960, OPEC's main objective is to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers. This article briefly outlines who this organisation is and their significant influence on the pricing of oil.

Who are OPEC? OPEC has 13 member countries, including nations like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela, among others. OPEC holds 80.4% of the world’s proven oil reserves, while the set of 11 non-OPEC nations represent 9.7% of proven oil reserves.

With 90% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves held by these nations, they have the capability to disrupt or enhance the supply of crude oil. The list of non-OPEC nations includes Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Russia, Mexico, Malaysia, South Sudan, Sudan and Oman. And OPEC+?

OPEC+ refers to OPEC and its alliance with other major oil-exporting countries that are not part of OPEC. OPEC+ aims to bring more coordination to global oil production levels, thereby stabilizing prices. The most notable non-OPEC country in OPEC+ is Russia, but the group also includes Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan And what are the “Observer states”?

Observer states do not have voting rights in OPEC decisions but may be invited to participate in discussions, share perspectives, and sometimes even coordinate policies informally with OPEC members. The status of observer can serve as a preliminary step before becoming a full member, although this is not always the case. Observer state countries include Canada, Egypt, Norway and Oman.

What Does OPEC do? Production Quotas: Both OPEC and OPEC+ set production quotas for member countries to balance supply and demand in the global oil market. These quotas aim to stabilise or increase oil prices depending on prevailing market conditions and arguably to meet their needs as oil producing nations.

Market Monitoring: The organisations monitor global economic conditions, energy markets, and supply/demand factors to inform their decisions. Policy Coordination: Through regular meetings, OPEC and OPEC+ members coordinate their national policies regarding oil production. Data and Research: They gather and publish data on oil production, exporting, and pricing, providing valuable insights into the global oil market.

How Do They Do It? Regular Meetings: Both OPEC and OPEC+ hold regular meetings to review current market conditions and decide on production quotas. Technical Committees: These are specialized committees that analyze market conditions and recommend policies.

Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC): In the case of OPEC+, this committee reviews compliance with agreed production quotas and recommends corrective measures if needed. Consensus Decision-Making: Decisions, especially in OPEC, are generally made by unanimous agreement, although OPEC+ operates more on a negotiated basis between its leading members. Market Implications of OPEC Decision Making A knowledge of both the direct and wider indirect influence of OPEC on financial markets is worthwhile as this goes across the majority of asset classes, and therefore can influence traders significant irrespective of their preferred trading instrument.

These include: Oil Prices: OPEC and OPEC+ decisions hold significant sway over global oil prices. These organizations, representing a substantial portion of the world's oil production, can influence supply levels through production cuts or increases. Consequently, their actions often result in immediate and sometimes substantial effects on oil prices.

Higher production quotas tend to lower prices, while production cuts can drive prices upward. These price fluctuations impact both energy companies and consumers, as they affect fuel costs and energy-related expenses. Stock Markets: While energy stocks and indices are particularly sensitive to OPEC/OPEC+ decisions, the broader stock market is also affected.

This broader impact arises from the economic implications of oil price changes. For instance, rising oil prices can lead to increased production costs for many businesses, potentially impacting corporate profits. Conversely, lower oil prices can benefit various industries but may negatively affect energy sector companies.

Therefore, stock markets, as a whole, as well as individual stocks react to these shifts in energy prices, influencing investment strategies and market sentiment. Currency Markets: Changes in oil prices can have a cascading effect on currency markets. Oil-exporting countries e.g., Canada, often rely heavily on oil revenues to support their economies.

When oil prices rise, these countries tend to experience increased income, which can strengthen their currencies. Conversely, falling oil prices can weaken their currencies. This currency impact, in turn, affects Forex markets as traders adjust their positions based on shifts in exchange rates driven by oil price movements.

Inflation: Oil prices have a direct and immediate impact on inflation levels worldwide. This is because energy costs are a significant component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in many countries. When oil prices rise, it often leads to higher transportation and production costs, ultimately contributing to inflation.

Central banks closely monitor inflation levels, and significant changes can influence their monetary policies, including decisions on interest rates. Thus, OPEC's choices can indirectly affect central bank decisions, which, in turn, impact financial markets. Geopolitical Implications: The decisions made by OPEC and OPEC+ are not just economic; they also have geopolitical ramifications.

Oil is a strategic resource with far-reaching geopolitical significance. Countries that are major oil producers often wield considerable influence on the global stage due to their energy resources. Therefore, OPEC's decisions can sometimes lead to geopolitical tensions or alliances, affecting international relations and potentially impacting global security.

Sector Impact: Certain industries are highly dependent on oil prices. Airlines, transportation, and the automotive sector, for instance, are profoundly affected by OPEC/OPEC+ decisions. Airlines may experience changes in fuel costs, which can significantly impact their operational expenses and profitability.

Similarly, transportation companies and automakers rely on affordable fuel prices to maintain competitive pricing and consumer demand. Consequently, OPEC's choices can ripple through these sectors, influencing business strategies, stock performance, and investor sentiment. Summary Although by no means the only influence on the price of oil and related assets, OPEC undoubtedly plays a major part.

For traders, particularly those involved in commodity trading, energy sectors, or currencies of oil-dependent countries, understanding the dynamics of OPEC and OPEC+ is crucial. Their decisions can create volatility and trading opportunities, but also pose risks that need to be managed carefully. A knowledge of timing of OPEC meetings and observation of the impact of OPEC statements are a great start point in managing such risks and taking advantages of opportunities that may exist.

Averaging down is an investment strategy in which an investor purchases additional shares or other assets at a lower price than their initial purchase price. This strategy is employed when the price of the asset has declined after the investor's initial purchase. Through buying more of the asset at a lower cost, the average cost per unit or share decreases.

Averaging down can be applied to various types of investments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. This article provides an example of what averaging down may look like and explores some of the considerations that must be taken into account prior to implementing such a strategy. Averaging Down – An Example To illustrate the principle of averaging down, consider the following example.

An investor believes in the long-term potential of an AI company's stock, ABC Tech Pty Ltd, and initially purchases 100 shares at $50 per share, resulting in a total investment of $5,000. However, over the next few months, the stock price declines due to market volatility and concerns about the company's financial performance. Initial Purchase: Bought 100 shares of ABC Tech Pty Ltd. at $50 per share.

Total investment: $5,000. Breakeven cost: $50 per share Averaging Down actioned After a few months, the stock's price has fallen to $40 per share. The investor believes that the price drop is temporary.

Rather than selling the shares at a loss of $1,000, the investor decides to employ an averaging-down strategy. The investor purchases an additional 100 shares of ABC Tech Pty Ltd at the current price of $40 per share. Here's how the investment looks after the additional purchase: Initial 100 shares at $50 per share: $5,000.

Additional 100 shares at $40 per share: $4,000. Total investment: $9,000 Breakeven cost: $45 per share The Opportunity in Averaging Down With the average cost per share now reduced from $50 to $45, a profit will be realized if the stock's price eventually rebounds and exceeds $45 per share. If the stock price increases to $55 per share, here is the updated financial picture: Initial 100 shares at $50 per share: Original value $5,000, now worth $5,500 — $500 profit.

Additional 100 shares at $40 per share: Original value $4,000, now worth $5,500 — $1,500 profit. Current total value of holdings: $11,000 from an initial investment of $9,000. Total profit: $2,000 Risks of Averaging Down However, if the stock price declines further to $35, the situation would be as follows: Initial 100 shares at $50 per share: Original value $5,000, now worth $3,500 — $1,500 loss.

Additional 100 shares at $40 per share: Original value $4,000, now worth $3,500 — $500 loss. Current total value of holdings: $7,000 from a total investment of $9,000. Total loss: $2,000 So rather than an opportunity realised there is a compounding of the losses.

This can be exaggerated further should additional averaging down purchases be made at the new lower price, which some who use this strategy would subsequently action. What this example aims to illustrate is that despite any potential advantage, merely buying more of an asset because its price has declined doesn't guarantee that the asset's value will eventually recover. Without proper research and analysis, investors might be investing in an asset with poor long-term prospects.

So, the key message is that this strategy should be based on additional considerations that must form part of the decision making. Key Considerations for Averaging Down As we have outlined, averaging down can be a tactical move when executed with careful consideration of the asset's fundamentals and market trends. It can be particularly effective for investors with a long-term perspective who believe in the asset's long-term potential.

However, the following represent some of the considerations that must be at the forefront of any such decision. Potential for Larger Losses: As already referenced but is worth re-iterating, averaging down carries the risk that the asset's price might continue to decline after additional purchases. This can result in larger losses if the price does not recover as anticipated.

The reason for any decline must be fully investigated. Of course, it could be a simple short-term market fluctuation that may be taken advantage of, but it is vital to explore whether there is a more permanent decline in company performance meaning recovery is less likely. Sunk Cost Fallacy: Averaging down can lead to a cognitive bias termed sunk cost fallacy (or sunk cost bias), where investors continue investing in a losing position because they've already committed capital.

This can prevent them from objectively assessing the asset's true potential and an emotion-based refusal to accept that the loss in value may not recover. Loss of Diversification: Overcommitting to an averaging down approach in a single asset can lead to an imbalanced portfolio, reducing diversification and so arguably increasing overall risk. Opportunity Cost: Funds used for averaging down could potentially be invested in other assets with better potential for growth.

Investors need to assess whether averaging down is the best use of their capital and so by committing more into a single asset may be losing opportunities in another. Time Horizon: Averaging down often requires a longer time horizon to potentially realise any potential gains. If an investor needs liquidity in the short term, this strategy might not align with their investment profile or goals.

Psychological Stress: Sustained declines in an asset's price can lead to emotional stress for investors who are hoping for a recovery. Emotional decision-making can lead to poor choices. Using averaging down as a substitute for a clearly defined exit strategy: Any investment should be underpinned with a soldi and unambiguous risk management foundation.

Averaging down is often employed without due consideration of this reality and often employed by those without clearly defined exit points for longer term positions. Summary Averaging down can be useful if applied thoughtfully and with a clear risk management plan. However, it comes with its own set of risks, and investors must carefully consider their risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions before deciding to implement this strategy.

As always, it's crucial to maintain a well thought out portfolio, conduct thorough research, and avoid emotional decision-making.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an oscillator type of indicator, designed to illustrate the momentum related to a price movement of a currency pair or CFD. In this brief article we aim to outline what this indictor may tell you about market sentiment, and along with other indicators assist in your decision-making. As with most oscillator type of indicator, the RSI can move between two key points (0-100).

The major aim of the RSI is to gauge whether a particular asset, in our context a forex pair or CFD, is overbought or oversold, and the associated key levels are below 30 (when it is classed as “Oversold”) and above 70 (where it is classed as “overbought”). To bring up an RSI chart on your MT4/5 platform it is simply a case of finding the RSI in your list of indicators in the Navigation box and clicking and dragging it into your chart area. The diagram below illustrates this on a 30-minute chart.

It is generally thought that if the RSI moves into either of these two zones then a change may be imminent. Most commonly the RSI may be used as part of entry decision making. Traders may use this as an additional tick (when other indicators suggest entry) to make sure they do not enter a long trade on an overbought currency pair, or short trade on an oversold currency pair.

Therefore, when articulating this in your trading plan it may read something like the following: a. I will refrain from entry into a long trade if the RSI has moved above 70 on the last trading bar. b. I will refrain from entry into a short trade if the RSI has moved below 30 on the last trading bar.

Less frequently but logically, if one accepts this premise that a move into either of the previous described zones then a trend change may be imminent. It could also be used as a “warning” to potentially exit from an open trade. Traders who wish to explore this in their own trading could: a.

Tighten a trail stop to within a specified number of pips from current price e.g., 10 Pips. or b. Exit the trade entirely. Of course, in either case and with any indicators we discuss, back-testing it with previous trades to ascertain any change in outcomes can be performed to justify a prospective test.

Finally, after gathering a critical mass of trade examples exploring if this would make a difference, this could provide the evidence to suggest whether you should (or should not if there is no difference) formally add to your trading plan. For a live look at how indictors may be used in the reality of trading decision making, why not join our “Inner Circle” group with regular weekly webinars on a range of topic including that of indicators. It would be great to have you as part of the group.

CLICK HERE to enroll for the next inner circle session. This article is written by an external Analyst and is based on his independent analysis. He remains fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

热门话题10多年前，那时候曾经学过水墨画和工笔，后来学习了素描和油画。在认知当中，画作的手法，风格，色彩都间接地反映了那个时期的文化和经济。文化和经济文化呢主要是体现在价值观和社会信仰。经济方面主要体现为其中的主题，材料和风格。例如经济繁荣的时期主题会感觉充满乐观和希望，材料用料较好，颜色偏向于明亮。而在经济萎靡时期，主题会相对偏向于挣扎，材料用料较差，颜色也会相对偏暗。

（source：维基百科）总体来说，艺术家通过画作，传达思想，信仰、价值观和审美观。其中画作不乏包含着时代的更替，历史的变革，其中包括但是不仅限于如下几种：

• 古埃及壁画：反映了当时的宗教信仰、社会等级和生活方式。
• 文艺复兴绘画：描绘了更为丰富多样的主题，如神话、宗教和日常生活，表现了人文主义的价值观念。
• 印象派绘画：反映了19世纪末工业革命后的社会变迁，以及新的审美追求和艺术表达方式。
• 20世纪抽象艺术：折射了现代社会的复杂性、多元性和快速变化

相较于这些类型的画作，其实国画更为独特。国画常常运用象征手法，通过各种自然元素，如竹、梅、兰、菊，来表达艺术家的情感和思想，反映了人与自然和谐相处的文化理念。国画深受道教和儒教的影响，强调人与自然的合一，注重表现人物的内心世界和道德品格，体现了中国传统的道德观念和人生哲学。国画与书法有着密不可分的关系。许多国画作品融入了书法，将文字和绘画融为一体，体现了文学与视觉艺术的完美结合。时代的变革下，很多事物，包括艺术都在潜移默化之间改变了。画作的价值说回画作本身，实际上对于艺术家来说，画作本身是无价的。因为赋予了心血，情感，甚至还有寄托。但是对于非艺术家来说，艺术品画作的直观价值，就是用金钱进行衡量。然后在近年来，绘画的方式，手法，都有所改变。比如人们更倾向于电脑作画，快速，高效，还有就是新兴的VR作画的艺术形式。但是在今年，出现了一些不同。今年二月份的ChatGPT上线，引爆了AI的浪潮。通过AI的兴起，AI作画也迅速发展，这样使得传统艺术受到了巨大的冲击。AI作画主要是用机器学习的算法，来进行绘画。其中他可以不断学习人类艺术家的风格，创造出自己的画作。举个例子，和AI说，我要有车，人，树，什么时间点，什么风格画作，AI就可以快速帮忙生成。节省成本，时间，还有人力。这样高效，快速，仿佛更符合目前快节奏的生活，但是这里就不禁有个疑问，这个还算是艺术品吗？而且，画作的价值变得更加难以评判。同时那些画作者，没日没夜锻炼的技法，一笔一画的深刻雕琢似乎都可能成了现代科技进步的牺牲品。

（Source：The Value）对于个人而言，我更倾向于传统手绘的画作。就像很多人所说的，这些画作是有着灵魂的，而不只是手法的堆砌，技巧的层叠。我其实更觉得这是艺术家一种情感的表达。相对于现在来说，AI是暂时没有和人类一样的情感的。当然深度学习中，neural network神经网络是模仿大脑神经元所做出的判断，AI作画未来会是怎么样，也是个未知数。AI作画还面临着许多挑战和争议，例如关于机器是否能够真正创作艺术、AI创作的艺术品应该如何归属和其中知识产权等问题。这些问题涉及艺术、伦理、法律和科技等多个层面，需要社会各界共同探讨和解决。然而，不可否认的是，时代和科技的进步的确提供了不少便利，抛开艺术而言，普通的AI作画也确实节省了时间成本等等问题。现阶段来说，AI创造的公司，AI芯片等等，还是有着可观的前景。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 分析师

热门话题曾几何时，对中国股市和香港股市保有期望的投资者，一直在希望被打破和继续燃起希望的循环中自我往复。但是，信仰是虚的，金钱是实的，有时候大家也会感慨，如果当时买的是美股，现在是不是已经告别小康，在财务自由的道路上奋勇狂奔，也能够轻松打败巴菲特，流传一段佳话给自己的孩子：你爹曾经超越股神。然而，买了HK50和China50，或者投资中国股票的投资者，能够互相安慰的就是：我亏的已经很少了。

从上图可以看到，疫情前2019年至今，一个完整的周期，到今天为止，美股道琼斯上涨了33%，澳洲ASX200指数上涨了10%，而香港恒生指数下跌了40%。用数字大家看到的更明显，比如10万美金，投资美国股市，最差你买了指数，相当于基金中的基金，放那不动，咱也不说什么梯度买入，什么定投，就是简简单单的买入，用GO Markets的优势，来个2倍杠杆，然后把咱们的MT5软件删除，等到今天，打电话问一下Jacky，我账户里面多少钱了，我就告诉你，16.6万了。然后快快乐乐的取出6.6万，去换一辆特斯拉，或者带着全家去美国，去欧洲，去日本，找一些地方转一圈。但是，如果咱们用2倍杠杆，买了HK50，很不幸，亏得啥也没了，只剩2万了，亏了8万，只能开着Toyota，骑着小电车，去送送外卖，开开Uber，带着一丝忧伤，告诉下一代，一定要靠勤劳致富，投资什么的咱还是不适合。近期港股连番下跌，不建议大家抄底，虽然之前说过，政策底来了。但是，一旦市场出现破位下跌，不要靠信念抄底，多头打不过空头，咱们就战术性撤退，实在是想赚钱，打不过就加入，顺势做空。所以，投资和打仗一样，瞬息万变，切不可一个思维走到底，除非咱们钱很多，可以不停的加仓，拉着大盘往上走。我非常喜欢游击战的策略，赚一点就跑，咱们钱少好掉头，每一次短线顺势，都要增加一点自己的资金规模，这样积少成多。千万不要用自己的几万几十万去打阵地战，对面空头凶的很。

之前还有句玩笑话，买涨股市就买涨美国的，NDX100，WS30，做空就做空HK50，这个也算是一种低风险的套利。没想到，都2023年了，还能应验。一个上涨33%，一个下跌40%，这样算来，策略的回报是73%。还是没有使用任何杠杆的情况下。真的是，一言难尽。香港上市公司开始自救，部分上市公司正在大力回购股票，以期提升估值，今年以来港股回购金额已经超过800亿港元，约为去年全年的79%，是港股连续三年加码回购。“股王”腾讯今年以来86次回购，回购金额合计313.6亿港元，占港股总回购额的39%.整体来看，156家出手回购的公司“亏多赚少”，因为整体股市还在下行。市场预计2023年年度回购金额可能达到929亿港元，是前5年年度平均水平的3.9倍。从这个数据来看，或许未来港股会有一个反转，只是何时来临并不知晓，我们还需要耐心等待。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管