市场资讯及洞察

随着伊朗冲突的重塑 能源市场,中央银行转为鹰派,尽管混乱不堪,黄金仍处于自由落体状态,2026年的避险手册比以往任何时候都更加复杂。
事实速览
- 尽管中东战争活跃,但黄金已从历史最高水平下跌了20%以上
- 新加坡元兑美元汇率接近自2014年10月以来的最高水平
- 这个 澳大利亚储备银行(RBA) 由于伊朗推动的油价推动澳大利亚通货膨胀率上升,2026年3月将利率上调至4.10%
1。黄金(XAU/USD)
黄金仍然是全球交易最广泛的避风港。它受益于地缘政治压力、美元疲软和负实际利率环境。但是,它在2026年的短期行为需要解释。
尽管中东战争活跃,但黄金仍大幅抛售。可能的原因是美联储下调了2026年的降息预期,理由是生产者通货膨胀率高于预期, 霍尔木兹海峡-油价推动了通货膨胀的持续性。
归根结底,黄金的牛市取决于实际收益率下降和美元疲软,而目前这两个条件都不具备。交易者应意识到,在像伊朗冲突造成的通货膨胀供应冲击中,黄金的表现并不总是如预期。
但是,如果你缩小视野,长期前景将巩固黄金的避险地位,到2025年成为有记录以来最强劲的年份之一。
值得关注的关键变量:美联储指引、实际收益率和美元方向。
2。日元 (JPY)
由于日本是世界上最大的净债权国,日元长期以来一直是避险货币。在压力时期,日本投资者倾向于汇回资本,推动日元走高。
但是,到目前为止,这种动态似乎在2026年发生了变化。日元同比下跌6.63%,接近2024年7月以来的最低水平,石油进口成本的飙升正在打压该货币。
但是,日元的避险作用并未消失。在股票大幅抛售和流动性事件中,它往往会重新站稳脚跟。但是在石油驱动的通胀冲击中,它面临着结构性阻力。
值得关注的关键变量:日本央行的利率决定、美日收益率差异以及日本当局发出的任何干预信号。
3.瑞士法郎 (CHF)
瑞士的政治中立性、账户盈余和强大的机构框架使法郎成为反身避险货币。与日元不同,瑞士法郎在当前环境中保持不变,2026年法郎兑美元汇率上涨,欧元/瑞郎保持稳定。
对于欧洲和中东的交易者来说,瑞士法郎通常是压力事件中的第一停靠港。
值得关注的关键变量:瑞士国家银行的干预语言、欧洲的地缘政治发展和全球风险指数。
4。美国国债 (US10Y)
在正常情况下,美国政府债券是世界上最大、流动性最高的避险工具。但是 2026 年不是正常情况...
收益率一直在上升,而不是下降,这意味着对于任何寻求安全的人来说,债券价格都朝着错误的方向发展。
当避险事件期间收益率上升时,这表明市场将债券视为通货膨胀风险而不是安全资产。
但是,像票据和2年期国债这样的短期国债则是另一回事。与长期债券相比,它们可能提供更高的收入和更低的期限风险,这就是为什么一些投资者在动荡时期更能防御性地使用它们的原因。
值得关注的关键变量:美联储通讯、消费者价格指数和个人消费支出数据,以及10年期国债收益率是否突破4.50%或回落至4.00%以下。
5。澳元兑美元(澳元/美元):反向竞争
澳元被广泛认为是一种风险货币,与全球大宗商品需求和中国的增长密切相关。
在避险环境中,澳元/美元通常会下跌。澳元/美元下跌可以作为更广泛全球压力的主要指标,这对于具有区域风险敞口的交易者来说可能是一个有用的背景。
澳洲联储的加息周期(自2026年初以来两次加息)为澳元提供了一些下限,但在持续的全球避险走势中,这种支撑是有限的。
值得关注的关键变量:澳大利亚央行前瞻性指导、中国采购经理人指数数据、铁矿石价格以及石油对澳大利亚通胀预期的影响。
6。美元指数(DXY)
在急性压力期间,美元充当世界储备货币和反身避风港。当流动性枯竭时,无论潜在趋势如何,全球对美元的需求往往会激增。
在过去的12个月中,由于全球对美国财政轨迹的信心动摇,美元已经下跌。但在过去的一个月中,在鹰派美联储和地缘政治风险上升的支持下,它已经走强。
在避险环境中,美元继续吸引避险资金流动。但是,油价上涨会增加通货膨胀风险,使美联储的政策预期复杂化。
值得关注的关键变量:美联储利率路径、美国通胀数据和全球流动性状况。
7。新加坡元 (SGD)
新加坡元是当前环境中最具弹性的货币之一,在全球范围内鲜为人知,但在整个东南亚都具有很高的相关性。
在避险资金流和投资者被新加坡AAA评级债券、股息密集的股票市场和可预测的政府政策所吸引的支持下,新加坡元已升至接近2014年10月以来的最高水平。
新加坡金融管理局通过名义有效汇率区间而不是利率来管理新加坡元,使其具有与其他避险货币不同的性质。
对于有印尼、马来西亚、泰国、越南和更广泛的东盟地区敞口的交易者来说,美元/新加坡元可以作为区域风险偏好的实用基准。
值得关注的关键变量:新加坡金融管理局的政策区间调整、区域贸易流动以及更广泛的美元/亚洲动态。
8。现金和短期固定收益
有时,最有效的避风港可以简单地减少暴露。由于主要经济体的中央银行利率仍处于较高水平,现金和短期政府债券可以在不受市场风险影响的同时提供可观的收益率。
澳洲联储在3月份的会议上将现金利率提高至4.10%。英格兰银行维持在3.75%,而欧洲央行将其存款便利利率维持在2.00%,主要再融资利率维持在2.15%。 在所有主要经济体中,短期政府票据多年来首次提供了实际回报。
在动荡的环境中,资本保值有时比回报最大化更重要。
值得关注的关键变量:所有主要经济体的中央银行会议日历,以及利率路径前瞻性指导的任何变化。
接下来要看什么
美联储通胀数据。 核心个人消费支出是目前黄金、债券和美元最重要的单一数据点。任何一个方向上的任何惊喜都可能同时移动所有这三个方向。
日元干预风险。 日元接近此前引发日本当局行动的水平。具有亚太地区风险敞口的交易者应密切关注。
澳洲联储的下一步行动。 澳大利亚目前为4.10%,通货膨胀率仍高于目标,问题在于徒步周期是否还有更长的路要走。下一次澳洲联储会议将于5月5日举行。
地缘政治轨迹。 任何缓和中东局势的举措都将迅速减少避险需求,并将资本转回风险资产。反之亦然。
中国的增长信号。 中国复苏强于预期,可能会提振大宗商品货币,降低整个亚太地区的防御地位。
长期镜头
2026年的环境表明,避险资产的有效性取决于 类型 令人震惊,而不仅仅是其严重性。
伊朗冲突造成的通货膨胀供应冲击是传统避风港最困难的环境之一。
随着实际收益率的上升,黄金下跌。随着通货膨胀预期的攀升,债券抛售。随着日本进口成本的飙升,即使是日元也可能贬值。
无论宏观条件如何,都保持着机构信誉、管理框架和充足流动性的资产。瑞士法郎、新加坡元和短期现金工具比目前的黄金或多头债券更符合这种描述。
在2026年,交易者面临的问题不是 “哪个避风港?”它是 “避风港,避开什么?”

One of the must-watch economic events this week will be the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday at 14:00 PM London time. It will be the first meeting since the new United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).
The bank has increased its interest rates four times since July of last year, so will there be another hike? Why Is The Announcement Important? A bank interest rate is a rate at which a countries central bank lends money to local banks.
The interest rate is charged by nations central or federal bank on loans advances to control the money supply in the economy and the banking sector. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1% to 2% (currently 2.8%), and the interest rates are changed accordingly to meet the target. Therefore, the Bank of Canada’s and other central bank rate decisions can have a significant impact on the financial markets.
Expectations In a recent speech, Stephen Poloz, the Governor of Bank of Canada said he continues to believe gradually increasing interest rates is the right approach. According to the latest forecasts, it is highly anticipated that the Bank of Canada will raise its interest rates in the upcoming meeting from 1.5% to 1.75%, potentially a fifth rate hike since July 2017. "We expect the Bank to hike this month, in addition to hiking four more times in 2019, as the BoC’s measure of core inflation touched 2.0% for the first time since 2012 in August and is facing increased capacity constraints," said Daniel Hui, an analyst at J.P. Morgan. "This [October] hike was already well anticipated by markets even before the USMCA breakthrough (80% priced before, 90%+ priced now), so it is the forward-looking rhetoric that might imply future pace and terminal rate that is more important for markets to monitor," says Hui.
All eyes will be on the decision on Wednesday. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper

The Buraeu of Labor Statistics have released the latest jobs report for April. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers. The total non-farm payroll employment increased by 263,000 the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, beating the forecast of 190,000. Biggest job gains were in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance. Professional and business services added 76,000 Construction added 33,000 Employment in health grew by 27,000 Social assistance added 26,000 The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 1969 to 3.6% beating the forecast of 3.8%.
The number of unemployed persons decreased by 387,000 to 5.8 million. The average hourly earnings remained unchanged at 3.2%, below the forecast of 3.3%. USDCAD – Hourly USDJPY – Hourly The next US jobs report is on 7th June.
This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper,


The electric vehicle industry has had a tough few weeks with the global chip and battery shortages affecting electric vehicle manufacturers around the world. Despite that, Tesla delivered 184,800 vehicles in Q1 of 2021, exceeding the number of vehicles produced (180,338). The deliveries consisted of 182,780 Model 3 and Model Y.
The rest (2,020) were made up by Model S. The latest figures mark a 109% improvement from Q1 in 2020 when the company delivered 88,400 vehicles. The latest figures also put the company on track to beat last year’s deliveries of 499,500, which was just shy of Elon Musk’s target of 500,000. ''Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q1 earnings.
Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles'' – statement read on the company’s website following the latest delivery numbers.
Tesla – Monthly Chart Source: TradingView With the Tesla reporting strong numbers for Q1, the price target was also increased by Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. Ives lifted his price target on the stock to $1,000 a share from $950, with a "bull case" level of $1,300. "In our opinion, the first quarter delivery numbers released on Friday was a paradigm changer and shows that the pent-up demand globally for Tesla's Model 3/Y is hitting its next stage of growth as part of a global green tidal wave underway," Ives said. "With a green tidal wave kicked off by Biden last week in the US, and global EV demand skyrocketing going after a $5 trillion (total addressable market) over the next decade, we believe these delivery numbers are a paradigm and sentiment shifter for the space going forward." You can trade Tesla (TSLA) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.


805,734,252 – that’s how many doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been given globally so far as of the 12 th April (from 185 locations), according to Our World in Data. Israel, Bahrain and Chile are leading the way with 54.7%, 24.7% and 24.6% of the population fully vaccinated. With more and more people getting the jab across the world, the chance of side effects becomes more likely.
We have already seen the AstraZeneca vaccine being suspended for use for in few countries. Today, it was announced that the US agencies are calling to pause the Johnson & Johnson vaccine rollout after reports of extremely rare blood clot cases. Following the FDA and CDC advice, all federal sites in the US have stopped using the vaccine until further investigation.
European Union and South Africa have also confirmed that they will temporally stop the rollout of the Johnson & Johnson jab. The share price of Johnson & Johnson was down by around 1.34% following the latest news on their vaccine, trading at $159.48 per share the close. The stock is up by 1.57% year-to-date.
Johnson & Johnson - YTD Chart Source: TradingView You can trade Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

With the Brexit negations dominating the news flow over the last few weeks, you may forget there are other events taking place. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its decision whether to increase, decrease or maintain the interest rates. The decision is scheduled to be announced at 12:45 PM UK time.
Why Is The Announcement Important? The European Central Bank is the central bank for the Eurozone, the countries which have adopted the Euro, including Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. ECB’s decision to increase, decrease or maintain the interest rate has a significant impact on the financial markets because changes in interest rates affect the exchange rate of the Euro, so it is one of the must-watch economic events in the calendar.
Expectations The European Central Bank has not changed its interest rates since March 2016 and analysts are forecasting that the rates will also remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting. All eyes will be on the European Central Banks President, Mario Draghi’s speech shortly after making the announcement. Hot topics will involve the Italian and the Brexit process, which has developed into complete chaos.
The French budget is another issue to address for the ECB after the French President Emmanuel Macron gave in to the recent anti-government protests by the ''yellow vest'' movement which will cause France to exceed the European Union’s budget deficit ceiling next year. Other ECB data releases to keep an eye out: ECB Marginal Lending Facility (12:45 PM London time) Previous: 0.25% Forecast: 0.25% ECB Deposit Facility Rate (12:45 PM London time) Previous: -0.40% Forecast: -0.40% This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper

One of the must-watch economic events this week will be the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday 29th May at 15:00 PM London time. Why Is The Announcement Important?
A bank interest rate is a rate at which a countries central bank lends money to local banks. The interest rate is charged by nations central or federal bank on loans advances to control the money supply in the economy and the banking sector. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1% to 2% (currently 2%), and the interest rates are changed accordingly to meet the target.
Therefore, the Bank of Canada’s and other central bank rate decisions can have a significant impact on the financial markets. Expectations The last time the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rates was back in October of last year and it is expected that the rates will remain unchanged at 1.75%, according to the analysts. ''Recent economic data suggest that growth will be stronger than the Bank was expecting in the first quarter, providing a reason to not cut rates.'' ''At the same time, growth will remain below potential, providing no reason to lift rates. The Bank of Canada will, therefore, remain in a holding pattern for now and make any necessary adjustments to that stance based on incoming economic data'', Principal economist Alicia MacDonald said at the Conference Board of Canada last week.
Even though a rate decision is not expected, traders will be keeping a close eye to the upcoming meeting and the comments after the rate decision has been announced. To keep up to date with other upcoming economic events click here for our Economic Calendar. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: DataWrapper, Bank of Canada
