市场资讯及洞察

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上周在没有重大金融数据影响的前提下美股2024未能留下良好的收尾，但2025开年后表现不错，周五一天大幅反弹基本收复整周颓势，纳指收涨1.77%，标普上涨1.26%，道指也有0.8%的反弹，罗素2000小盘股指数反弹1.72%，美股周五实现普涨行情。本周非农作为最主要的经济数据足以影响1月行情走向，目前预测值仅15万增幅大幅低于前值超20万数据，但也没有低于10万那么惨淡，因此该数据在周五落地前是有利于促进美联储降息的，整体来说预期对股市是利多的。

板块方面美股基本普涨，半导体板块涨幅较大，国际铀价快速反弹令美铀上涨迅速，核技术股更是走出两位数比例的单日反弹。AI板块，高科技指数，稀土，锂电池，银行业，地产以及工业板块均涨超1%。ARM涨超10%，特斯拉反弹8.22%重回$400以上，英伟达涨超4%，PLTR和C3均涨超6%预示着2025年AI应用层相关股将大幅走强。核能铀矿无疑是未来几年的大牛标的，在2024年整年铀价回撤后，国际供需情况令2025铀价上行空间加大，AI算力和电动车电力需求令核能成为不二选择。今天澳铀还将继续稳健上行。BTC大幅反弹，相关概念股齐涨，MSTR涨超13%，COIN涨超5%。量子计算题材周五略显平庸，无人机概念继续爆发，SES再涨18%。美股股指期货有望实现持续反弹波段，美元指数在暴涨至109以后小幅回落，但美元强势依旧，随着风险因素小幅下降，金价也有一定程度下行，恐慌指数快速回落。能源价格的反弹因俄乌局势还在热炒中，美油继续上涨冲上74美元大关。外汇方面美元的小幅回落令非美货币有了一丝喘息，澳美勉强重回0.62平台，美日没有进一步上涨，美元人民币继续因人民币持续贬值而稳定上行，在冲破7.3大关后已经一度攀升至7.36以上。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is a widely recognised technical indicator that has stood the test of time and is used by many trades to this day. First introduced by J. Welles Wilder in his 1978 book "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems", the Parabolic SAR gained popularity as a trend-following tool due to its simplicity and visual appeal.

By plotting dots above or below the price, the indicator facilitates traders to identify potential reversal points in the market that can theoretically be used as the basis for long or short strategy entry points and, of course, for exit also. However, like any trading tool, it is worth emphasising that the Parabolic SAR works best when combined with other criteria and considerations and an understanding how it works is necessary prior to developing a trading strategy around this approach to trading reversals. This article explores how to effectively use it for entry and exit points, discusses its advantages and limitations, and introduces refined methods to improve its reliability.

What Is the Parabolic SAR? In simple terms, the Parabolic SAR is a price and time-based indicator designed to highlight potential trend reversals. Its dots appear: Below the price during an uptrend, indicating bullish conditions.

Above the price during a downtrend, indicating bearish conditions. As trends develop, the dots "accelerate" closer to the price, making the SAR more sensitive to price movements. This acceleration is driven by a so-called “ Acceleration Factor (AF)”, a parameter that increases as the trend continues.

Ultimately, and as a sign that a trend may be ending, the dots change from below to above and vice versa depending on trend direction. So, as with any strategy with trend following at its basis this indicator can be used in decision making for such strategies. Before we get into its actual use there are a few noteworthy benefits and limitations worth highlighting.

The chart example below (4-hourly gold CFD) shows the basic concept of SAR dot entry and exit for long and short trades respectively. Advantages of the Parabolic SAR The Parabolic SAR offers a few key benefits that can add to both its ease and method of use, these include: Visual Simplicity: Its dots provide an intuitive, easy-to-read representation of trend direction and potential reversals. Dynamic Trailing Stop: The SAR adapts to price movement, making it a useful tool for managing risk and locking in profits.

Trend Confirmation: It helps traders stay in trending markets by signalling when to hold positions or whether it may be worth considering exit. Versatility: Although originally designed for use on stock charts, calculation of the dots happens automatically irrespective of the chart you are applying it to, thus contributing to its popularity through adapting to any instrument (e.g. Forex, index or commodity CFDs) or timeframes.

Limitations of the Parabolic SAR Despite its advantages, the SAR has notable drawbacks: Choppy Market Signals: In ranging or sideways markets, the SAR often generates false signals, leading to unnecessary trades. Lagging Nature: While the SAR adapts over time, as with the majority of platform based indicators, it can lag during fast-moving trends, resulting in delayed exits. Lack of Context: The SAR does not consider market context, previous support and resistance levels, or external factors like news events.

Explanation of the Parabolic SAR Settings (PSAR) The two key default settings of Step (0.02) and Maximum Step (0.20) that you will see when you open the indicator on your trading platform, aim to strike a balance between sensitivity and stability. These settings are generally designed to work well in trending markets, and although we usually suggest that when first used, you use the default settings, you will discover in time there may be some benefit in adjustment for different trading styles or market conditions. As with all indicators used on your charts, you should not only understand what the indicator is telling you (and what it is not!), but also what settings indicate so that you may adjust to suit your particular trading style and objectives.

Understanding how these settings affect the indicator's responsiveness is key to optimising the potential use of this indicator. Step (Acceleration Factor): Default Value: 0.02 What It Does: The Step determines the rate at which the SAR dots accelerate toward the price as the trend progresses. Each time a new high (in an uptrend) or a new low (in a downtrend) is reached, the SAR calculation becomes more sensitive by increasing the Step value.

The Step starts at the initial value (e.g., 0.02) and increments by the same amount with every new extreme point in the trend. Impact: A smaller Step (e.g., 0.01) results in a slower acceleration, making the SAR less sensitive but more suitable for long-term trends. A larger Step (e.g., 0.03 or 0.05) increases sensitivity, making it more responsive but prone to false signals in choppy markets.

Maximum Step: Default Value: 0.20 What It Does: The Maximum Step is the cap for how far the Step value can increase during a trend. It ensures that the SAR does not become overly sensitive as the trend progresses, which would lead to premature reversals being signalled. Impact: A lower Maximum Step (e.g., 0.10) results in fewer reversals being signalled, making the SAR more stable in strong trends.

A higher Maximum Step (e.g., 0.30) increases sensitivity and may generate earlier exit signals but can also lead to more false positives. How These Settings Work Together The Step and Maximum Step settings control how quickly the SAR dots move closer to the price and how responsive the indicator is: At the start of a trend, the dots are further away from the price. As the trend strengthens, the Step increases, bringing the SAR dots closer to the price.

Once the Step reaches the Maximum Step, no further acceleration occurs, maintaining stability during extended trends. Examples of the Default Settings in Action Slow and Strong Trends With the default Step of 0.02 and Maximum Step of 0.20, the SAR is moderately sensitive: It allows the price some room to fluctuate without immediately signalling a reversal. This is ideal for trending markets where the price steadily moves in one direction.

Use a smaller Step (e.g., 0.01) and Maximum Step (e.g., 0.15) for smoother, less frequent signals that may suit swing or long-term traders. Short-Term, Volatile Markets If you increase the Step to 0.03 or 0.05, the SAR becomes more responsive (and so may suit scalpers or short-term traders): It adjusts faster to price changes, signalling reversals more quickly. However, this can lead to more false signals in sideways or choppy markets.

Use the Parabolic SAR for Entry Using the Parabolic SAR for entries is most effective when combined with other criteria to filter out false signals. Consider the following refined entry criteria: Dot Switching: Look for the SAR dot to switch from above the price to below (for a long entry) or from below to above (for a short entry). Candle Structure: For long entries, an entry candle close in the top 30% of its range, may suggest bullish momentum.

For short entries, an entry candle close in the bottom 30% of its range, may support bearish momentum may be developing. Sequence Length: Confirm that the previous SAR sequence lasted for at least 3 dots. This helps avoid signals caused by short-lived consolidations and retracements.

Volume Confirmation: Look for increasing volume during the breakout or reversal, which strengthens the likelihood of a genuine trend shift. Confluence with Additional Indicators: There may be some benefit in combining the SAR with complementary indicators such as the MACD. Look for MACD line crossovers to confirm the trend and increasing momentum as seen in the histogram bar length.

Proximity of previous key levels: Close proximity of previous resistance levels or swing highs above a potential long trade may be an indication that upside potential may be limited. Therefore, some caution in entry may be prudent, Obviously, the reverse is the case for short trades i.e. watch for close proximity of previous support or swing lows near short entry, Entry Criteria 2: Alternative approaches Although not commonly discussed, in an attempt to avoid the risk of a consolidating market with dots frequently switching above and below price there are a couple of additional approaches that may be worth consideration and testing. Using higher timeframe confirmation of trend: This could be using any presence of trend indicator e.g., a 4-hourly chart when trading an hourly timeframe, Using a breach of the price of the first dot of the previous sequence: This may suggest a move out of any potential sideways trend.

Let’s call this an “A dot” for this explanation. The chart example below (GBPJPY 30min) shows using the A-dot of previous SAR dot sequence a breach of which confirms move above potential sideways trend risk and potentially a higher probability trade opportunity (although lesser return) than standard approach. Exit Criteria: Using the SAR for Reversals The Parabolic SAR excels at signalling trend exits, especially when a trend reversal is imminent.

Here’s how to use it effectively for exits: Dot Switching: A dot switching to the opposite side of the price can serve as an early warning of a potential reversal. Additional Reversal Signs: These can be added to the basic dot switching described above. Candle Structure: Look for candle reversal patterns, such as engulfing candles, Doji formations, or pin bars.

Volume Drop: Declining volume near the end of a trend may signal that momentum is fading. Additionally, when the dots reverse there may be an increase in volume as the reversal is confirmed, Trailing Stop: Use the current SAR dot level as a trailing stop to lock in profits as the trend progresses. Summary The Parabolic SAR is a versatile and visually intuitive tool that can help traders identify trends, manage trades, and spot reversals.

However, it is most effective when combined with other criteria, such as candle structure, volume, and momentum indicators. If one invests time in measurement and testing then alternative settings can be explored that may better suit your desired trading objectives and strategy choice. Using alternative approaches as discussed above, may be also worth testing consideration, as well of course, its inclusion within a defined exit strategy.

As with any indicator, while the SAR alone is insufficient for making trading decisions, it has potential as part of a broader trading strategy. By understanding its strengths, limitations, and applications, traders can better harness the power of this classic indicator to navigate the complexities of the markets and instruments and timeframes of choice. We trust that this article not only adds to your knowledge and trading potential but would be delighted to welcome you to our live events where strategies such as this are discussed and demonstrated live in detail.

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港股低迷了4年了，4年来2024年首次实现收益转正，2024年的港股市场可谓跌宕起伏，在多轮涨跌交替中，投资者情绪从兴奋到失望不断转换。市场在4月份和9月份分别迎来快速反弹，后来分别回吐了15%和13%左右，全年走势依旧未能摆脱震荡格局，我们说过港股和A股大行情的关键是政策出台和市场情绪转变，因此我们认为港股和恒生指数是非常适合做波段的产品。

2024年，恒生指数涨超16%，与纳指全年上涨31%、标普全年上涨25%相比显然逊色，前面说过港股整体涨势缺乏持续性，市场很快回归震荡，以下因素产生了关键影响：首先政策预期的反复影响市场情绪。年初的市场乐观主要源于国内货币政策宽松预期，以及后续3000亿保障性住房再贷款等财政刺激政策的推动。然而，随着政策实施力度不及预期，市场情绪迅速转向谨慎，反映出投资者对政策兑现能力的担忧。其次是大盘经济的多重压力。信贷疲软、消费萎靡和私人部门去杠杆化成为制约企业盈利改善的核心因素。尽管中国出口表现超预期，但内需恢复及其缓慢，尤其是房地产市场持续低迷，即将到来的关税或进一步对整体经济形成拖累。最后是南向资金互相观望导致市场动能不足。南向资金在年初大幅流入港股市场，但随着市场情绪变化和宏观不确定性增加，外资流入动能逐渐减弱。同时，本地机构投资者在政策预期反复中也保持观望态度，进一步放大了市场波动。尽管整体市场表现不佳，互联网和科技领域在政策支持下还是展现出较高增长潜力，而高分红的传统国企股则因其防御性特点成为资金青睐的对象。桥水基金认为，中国新兴市场能更有效地分散以美国资产（美股）为主的集中化组合风险，根据其模型测算结果，美国资产与中国资产的风险回报相关系数处于最低约0.4，远低于同期的欧洲、日本。

2025年，随着全球货币政策趋于分化，港股市场可能面临不确定性：一方面，港股估值处于低位对资金具有吸引力。截至2024年底，港股的动态市盈率仅约9.3倍，处于历史低位，明显低于A股和美股，具有较高性价比；另一方面，地缘政治和全球市场波动可能带来干扰，特朗普相关政策是一大不稳定性，而在全球中端制造领域具有竞争力的中国企业，有望通过“出海”实现更大的市场渗透，但需要注意出海企业的盈利改善兑换股价上涨所需要的时间成本较高。因此，我们认为2025年对于港股的交易仍保持2个主线：一是把握政策导向型投资机会，即与政策密切相关的行业预计将获得更多支持。例如，具备自主研发优势的计算机和半导体领域，符合中国特色的消费转型升级板块，这些方向不仅符合国家战略，也具备长期增长潜力，腾讯全年涨幅44.6%，市盈率却只有15.7；小米股价上涨81.4%，可选消费股泡泡马特股价上涨262%。二是优选高分红资产，在市场震荡时期，稳定的回报尤为重要。国企股因其高分红特性提供了相对稳健的收益，是防御性配置的良好选择。工商银行全年上涨33.9%，港股股息率7.1%，农业银行全年上涨41.5%，港股股息率6.5%，中远海控全年上涨69.4%，港股股息率7.5%，类似的企业还有很多。2025年，港股市场预计仍将呈现震荡。在这种环境下，投资者需要结合宏观环境和行业趋势，灵活调整策略，重点关注结构性机会。通过聚焦高质量资产、政策支持方向和长期增长领域，投资者有望在不确定性中寻找确定性，获取稳健回报。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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港股低迷了4年了，4年来2024年首次实现收益转正，2024年的港股市场可谓跌宕起伏，在多轮涨跌交替中，投资者情绪从兴奋到失望不断转换。市场在4月份和9月份分别迎来快速反弹，后来分别回吐了15%和13%左右，全年走势依旧未能摆脱震荡格局，我们说过港股和A股大行情的关键是政策出台和市场情绪转变，因此我们认为港股和恒生指数是非常适合做波段的产品。

2024年，恒生指数涨超16%，与纳指全年上涨31%、标普全年上涨25%相比显然逊色，前面说过港股整体涨势缺乏持续性，市场很快回归震荡，以下因素产生了关键影响：首先政策预期的反复影响市场情绪。年初的市场乐观主要源于国内货币政策宽松预期，以及后续3000亿保障性住房再贷款等财政刺激政策的推动。然而，随着政策实施力度不及预期，市场情绪迅速转向谨慎，反映出投资者对政策兑现能力的担忧。其次是大盘经济的多重压力。信贷疲软、消费萎靡和私人部门去杠杆化成为制约企业盈利改善的核心因素。尽管中国出口表现超预期，但内需恢复及其缓慢，尤其是房地产市场持续低迷，即将到来的关税或进一步对整体经济形成拖累。最后是南向资金互相观望导致市场动能不足。南向资金在年初大幅流入港股市场，但随着市场情绪变化和宏观不确定性增加，外资流入动能逐渐减弱。同时，本地机构投资者在政策预期反复中也保持观望态度，进一步放大了市场波动。尽管整体市场表现不佳，互联网和科技领域在政策支持下还是展现出较高增长潜力，而高分红的传统国企股则因其防御性特点成为资金青睐的对象。桥水基金认为，中国新兴市场能更有效地分散以美国资产（美股）为主的集中化组合风险，根据其模型测算结果，美国资产与中国资产的风险回报相关系数处于最低约0.4，远低于同期的欧洲、日本。

2025年，随着全球货币政策趋于分化，港股市场可能面临不确定性：一方面，港股估值处于低位对资金具有吸引力。截至2024年底，港股的动态市盈率仅约9.3倍，处于历史低位，明显低于A股和美股，具有较高性价比；另一方面，地缘政治和全球市场波动可能带来干扰，特朗普相关政策是一大不稳定性，而在全球中端制造领域具有竞争力的中国企业，有望通过“出海”实现更大的市场渗透，但需要注意出海企业的盈利改善兑换股价上涨所需要的时间成本较高。因此，我们认为2025年对于港股的交易仍保持2个主线：一是把握政策导向型投资机会，即与政策密切相关的行业预计将获得更多支持。例如，具备自主研发优势的计算机和半导体领域，符合中国特色的消费转型升级板块，这些方向不仅符合国家战略，也具备长期增长潜力，腾讯全年涨幅44.6%，市盈率却只有15.7；小米股价上涨81.4%，可选消费股泡泡马特股价上涨262%。二是优选高分红资产，在市场震荡时期，稳定的回报尤为重要。国企股因其高分红特性提供了相对稳健的收益，是防御性配置的良好选择。工商银行全年上涨33.9%，港股股息率7.1%，农业银行全年上涨41.5%，港股股息率6.5%，中远海控全年上涨69.4%，港股股息率7.5%，类似的企业还有很多。2025年，港股市场预计仍将呈现震荡。在这种环境下，投资者需要结合宏观环境和行业趋势，灵活调整策略，重点关注结构性机会。通过聚焦高质量资产、政策支持方向和长期增长领域，投资者有望在不确定性中寻找确定性，获取稳健回报。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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从2024下半年开始，减肥药再次成为市场热议的焦点。由于政策支持的放宽、医保扩容以及市场需求的持续高涨，使减肥药相关企业在全球范围内都掀起了一轮新的投资热潮。全球范围内的政策变动进一步驱动了减肥药热潮，首先是欧美放宽了减肥药的适用范围，比如美国FDA批准司美格鲁肽（Wegovy）用于更广泛人群的减重治疗，包括BMI稍高但未达到肥胖标准的个体。而欧盟药品管理局（EMA）也加速了GLP-1药物的审批流程，推动更多患者能及早获得治疗。而中国市场则是采取了纳入医保的措施：医保扩容：部分地区探索将减肥药纳入医保目录，降低患者的用药成本。这一举措会显著提升药物的推广性和使用率。试点项目：例如江苏和广东部分医院已启动针对肥胖治疗的医保试点，将GLP-1类药物也就是司美格鲁肽用于肥胖相关疾病治疗，也已经取得初步效果。并且在中国，“健康中国2030”战略提出重点应对慢性病和肥胖问题。政府加大对国产减肥药研发的支持力度，不仅提升国内企业竞争力，还可能削弱对进口药物的依赖。

除了政策的放宽，这次的减肥药热潮也体现出市场本身的大量需求和潜力。拿中国举例，据《中国居民营养与慢性病状况报告》，目前中国成年居民肥胖率接近19%，超重率达50%以上。随着生活方式的改变和健康意识的提升，对减肥药的需求呈指数级增长。并且减肥药一类的消费群体也随着社会意识的发展而产生了变化，过去，减肥药主要针对中老年人或存在代谢疾病的患者。现在，更多年轻消费者将减肥药视为“生活方式药物”，用于追求更健康的体态。

而通过减肥药这一个赛道，我们也可以对医疗板块进行多维度的挖掘：首先是直接与之挂钩的生物制药类别：司美格鲁肽和Mounjaro的成功表明，GLP-1类药物是未来几年制药行业的重要增长点。而其中不乏表现出色的标的：诺和诺德：减肥药市场的绝对领导者，市场份额稳固。礼来：通过Mounjaro在中国市场快速扩张，展现出强劲竞争力。百济神州：在中国推动本土化GLP-1药物的研发和商业化。其次是起辅助作用的医疗服务与器械：减肥药的普及也带动了与肥胖相关的检测、诊断和服务需求。例如：专注于肥胖治疗的医疗机构和私人诊所正成为新的投资热点。又或者是可穿戴设备（如华为和小米的健康手环）提供体重监测功能，与减肥药物形成互补。最后是近些年兴起的数字医疗，比如远程诊断与处方：数字医疗技术为减肥药市场带来新的增长点。通过线上平台，患者可以远程咨询并获取减肥药处方，降低时间和地域限制。我们比较熟知的可能有阿里健康和京东健康，以数字化方式将减肥药销售与健康管理服务结合。这次减肥药热潮不仅是一次短期的投资机会，更是医疗板块整体向上的重要信号。未来几年，随着技术的进步和政策支持的深化，医疗行业将继续释放更多投资机会：1. 长期持有优质标的医疗板块中不缺具有核心竞争力的龙头公司，做好前期选择并通过长期持有可以帮助获取收益。比如减肥药这一板块在2024到2025都有着不错的表现，在短期未来也能看到这些龙头企业继续走好的发展潜力。2. 分散投资，控制风险医疗板块的风险较高，我们作为投资者应分散投资于多个领域（如生物制药、医疗器械），或者其他板块的资产配置，来降低单一行业波动可能给我们带来的影响。3. 紧盯政策与技术动态医疗行业的发展高度依赖政策支持和技术进步。投资者需密切关注各国医疗政策的变化以及技术的最新突破。

尽管看好目前医疗板块的前景，但作为敏感行业依旧存在着潜在的风险：药物滥用的风险：随着需求的爆发，减肥药被滥用或过度依赖的风险增加。政策制定者需加强监管，确保药物的合理使用。研发与审批的不确定性：GLP-1类药物的成功吸引了大量企业投入研发，但新药的审批和商业化周期较长，作为投资者也需要注意潜在风险。政策波动：医保覆盖范围的调整和药品集采政策可能影响药企的利润率，需密切关注政策动态。和所有目前热门的板块一样，抓住机会投资的同时也需要时刻关注行业的政策和变动，根据自己的风险承受能力做出合理的投资计划。在这里祝大家新年快乐，希望大家在2025年都可以在投资的路上一帆风顺。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

热门话题

从2024下半年开始，减肥药再次成为市场热议的焦点。由于政策支持的放宽、医保扩容以及市场需求的持续高涨，使减肥药相关企业在全球范围内都掀起了一轮新的投资热潮。全球范围内的政策变动进一步驱动了减肥药热潮，首先是欧美放宽了减肥药的适用范围，比如美国FDA批准司美格鲁肽（Wegovy）用于更广泛人群的减重治疗，包括BMI稍高但未达到肥胖标准的个体。而欧盟药品管理局（EMA）也加速了GLP-1药物的审批流程，推动更多患者能及早获得治疗。而中国市场则是采取了纳入医保的措施：医保扩容：部分地区探索将减肥药纳入医保目录，降低患者的用药成本。这一举措会显著提升药物的推广性和使用率。试点项目：例如江苏和广东部分医院已启动针对肥胖治疗的医保试点，将GLP-1类药物也就是司美格鲁肽用于肥胖相关疾病治疗，也已经取得初步效果。并且在中国，“健康中国2030”战略提出重点应对慢性病和肥胖问题。政府加大对国产减肥药研发的支持力度，不仅提升国内企业竞争力，还可能削弱对进口药物的依赖。

除了政策的放宽，这次的减肥药热潮也体现出市场本身的大量需求和潜力。拿中国举例，据《中国居民营养与慢性病状况报告》，目前中国成年居民肥胖率接近19%，超重率达50%以上。随着生活方式的改变和健康意识的提升，对减肥药的需求呈指数级增长。并且减肥药一类的消费群体也随着社会意识的发展而产生了变化，过去，减肥药主要针对中老年人或存在代谢疾病的患者。现在，更多年轻消费者将减肥药视为“生活方式药物”，用于追求更健康的体态。

而通过减肥药这一个赛道，我们也可以对医疗板块进行多维度的挖掘：首先是直接与之挂钩的生物制药类别：司美格鲁肽和Mounjaro的成功表明，GLP-1类药物是未来几年制药行业的重要增长点。而其中不乏表现出色的标的：诺和诺德：减肥药市场的绝对领导者，市场份额稳固。礼来：通过Mounjaro在中国市场快速扩张，展现出强劲竞争力。百济神州：在中国推动本土化GLP-1药物的研发和商业化。其次是起辅助作用的医疗服务与器械：减肥药的普及也带动了与肥胖相关的检测、诊断和服务需求。例如：专注于肥胖治疗的医疗机构和私人诊所正成为新的投资热点。又或者是可穿戴设备（如华为和小米的健康手环）提供体重监测功能，与减肥药物形成互补。最后是近些年兴起的数字医疗，比如远程诊断与处方：数字医疗技术为减肥药市场带来新的增长点。通过线上平台，患者可以远程咨询并获取减肥药处方，降低时间和地域限制。我们比较熟知的可能有阿里健康和京东健康，以数字化方式将减肥药销售与健康管理服务结合。这次减肥药热潮不仅是一次短期的投资机会，更是医疗板块整体向上的重要信号。未来几年，随着技术的进步和政策支持的深化，医疗行业将继续释放更多投资机会：1. 长期持有优质标的医疗板块中不缺具有核心竞争力的龙头公司，做好前期选择并通过长期持有可以帮助获取收益。比如减肥药这一板块在2024到2025都有着不错的表现，在短期未来也能看到这些龙头企业继续走好的发展潜力。2. 分散投资，控制风险医疗板块的风险较高，我们作为投资者应分散投资于多个领域（如生物制药、医疗器械），或者其他板块的资产配置，来降低单一行业波动可能给我们带来的影响。3. 紧盯政策与技术动态医疗行业的发展高度依赖政策支持和技术进步。投资者需密切关注各国医疗政策的变化以及技术的最新突破。

尽管看好目前医疗板块的前景，但作为敏感行业依旧存在着潜在的风险：药物滥用的风险：随着需求的爆发，减肥药被滥用或过度依赖的风险增加。政策制定者需加强监管，确保药物的合理使用。研发与审批的不确定性：GLP-1类药物的成功吸引了大量企业投入研发，但新药的审批和商业化周期较长，作为投资者也需要注意潜在风险。政策波动：医保覆盖范围的调整和药品集采政策可能影响药企的利润率，需密切关注政策动态。和所有目前热门的板块一样，抓住机会投资的同时也需要时刻关注行业的政策和变动，根据自己的风险承受能力做出合理的投资计划。在这里祝大家新年快乐，希望大家在2025年都可以在投资的路上一帆风顺。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部