市场资讯及洞察

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昨天的美股大跌大涨，早间快速消化美国关税大棒恐引发的贸易战，本人分析贸易战利弊后坚定认为电力板块是无论贸易战与否都会在2025年爆发的标的，因此昨天美股夜盘的暴跌是难得的进场或加仓机会，围绕电力供应VST和CEG，核技术OKLO和NNE的布局都会是精准而有效的，关于铀矿股由于需要牵扯加拿大本土公司，因此不在本轮波段考虑范围。令人宽慰的是今早看到美国对墨西哥和加拿大的加关税政策延迟执行，股指全面回暖，尽管三大股指依然收跌，但相较昨天夜盘的恐慌和股指期货的暴跌，基本已经收复了失地。目前对美股的针对性选择非常重要，对于大盘，周末复盘已经做了详细介绍，本周非农和财报的冲击令大盘较难大幅上冲，但周一的走法和上周一如出一辙，一周开始就大幅消耗恐慌和洗盘，周中股市不会差，因此在今年重点大牛预期板块核电和AI应用方面可以大胆布局。昨晚一系列操作本证明是相对高效的，对夜盘超跌是的NNE波段今早止盈，保留了VST仓位不受恐慌影响，新进布局了电力供应CEG和量子计算RGTI，目前看都在本周值得期待。关于AI应用，TEM的确是一个不错的选择，技术面看目前进场还不晚，PLTR财报如期强势，盘后涨超22%，这些也验证了开年所预测的今年会是AI应用年。美元指数坐了回过山车，跳涨暴跌后目前回到了108平台，关税政策的暂停止住了恐慌，但并未压低美元，美元依旧强势。由于美元的剧震表现，黄金趁势冲上2800。昨天的恐慌也是剧烈震荡，周中或能表现稳定，但非农夜又会暴走。原油价格大幅下行，原本美油可以因对加拿大的关税政策而大幅提高价格，现在关税政策暂停，油价也继续回到原来的水平趋势中。比特币也重回十万大关。外汇方面，澳美回到0.62以上，澳日也恢复到了96之上，澳元昨天经历了暴跌后的回升。日元表现强势，美日跌破155大关，美元人民币波动也加大，目前围绕7.3位置展开争夺。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

Introduction The ability to recognise and effectively use chart patterns is often considered a fundamental skill in technical trading. Traders across all levels, from beginners to institutional professionals, study recurring price formations in an attempt to predict future market movements. However, the actual reliability of these patterns is frequently debated.

Most traders are aware of terms like 'bullish flag,' 'double top,' or 'ascending triangle,' but what do these formations truly indicate in terms of statistical success rates and practical trading strategies? More importantly, how do we use them effectively rather than treating them as standalone signals? Key Principles: Why Reliability Matters in Trading Understanding the probability of a price move based on historical occurrences is essential for making strategic decisions.

Theoretically, at least, there are three considerations worth outlining when considering this as a topic. Risk Management Traders should be able to set more accurate stop-loss and take-profit levels by understanding the likelihood of pattern success. This helps reduce emotional decision-making and provides better-defined risk-reward ratios.

Confidence in Trade Execution If traders have quantified probabilities, they can trust their system instead of second-guessing trades. A data-driven approach particularly one that has demonstrated some evidence of success in live trading helps build system confidence and so maintain discipline, in multiple market conditions, Strategy Optimisation Patterns should not be used in isolation. They must be tested against various timeframes, market conditions, and confluence factors.

Not only with commonly used lagging indicators but also candle structure and trading volume. Optimizing trading strategies involves identifying weaknesses in pattern success rates. Reliability of Bullish and Bearish Patterns Historically, many authors have suggested potential reliability:scores of various patterns, We have summarised these and relevant ranges of such, in the following two tables, a) Bullish Patterns and Reliability Scores Pattern Type Description Reliability (%) Double Bottom A reversal pattern indicating a potential upward move after a downtrend. 60-75% Breakout (Bullish) Price moves above a resistance level with increased volume. 70-90% Head and Shoulders (Inverse) A reversal pattern indicating a potential upward move. 70-80% Bullish Flag A continuation pattern indicating consolidation before the uptrend resumes. 65-75% Ascending Triangle A continuation pattern indicating a potential upward move after consolidation. 50-60% Cup and Handle A continuation pattern indicating a potential upward move after a consolidation period. 60-70% Moving Average Crossover (Bullish) A shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average. 55-65% b) Bearish Patterns and Reliability Scores Pattern Type Description Reliability (%) Double Top A reversal pattern indicating a potential downward move after an uptrend. 60-75% Breakout (Bearish) Price moves below a support level with increased volume. 50-70% Head and Shoulders A reversal pattern indicating a potential downward move. 70-80% Bearish Flag A continuation pattern indicating a brief consolidation before the downtrend resumes. 65-75% Descending Triangle A continuation pattern indicating a potential downward move after consolidation. 50-70% Bearish Divergence Price makes a higher high while an oscillator makes a lower high. 50-60% Moving Average Crossover (Bearish) A shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average. 55-65% Potential Flaws in Generalised Reliability Figures However, despite theoretical benefits, to focus solely on the reliability of chart patterns would logically be an error.

There are potential flaws in doing this and we would suggest these are threefold. 1. Lack of Context These figures often (unless measured specifically) will not account for market conditions (trending vs. ranging markets). Different timeframes, direction, and instrument volatility can produce vastly different probabilities. 2.

Absence of Trade Management Factors Intra-trade movements (retracements, consolidations) impact the final success rate of a pattern, as well as candle structure and trading volume as previously mentioned. Exit criteria matter just as much, if not more, than entry probabilities. Without a clear context of what exit has been used in such probability calculations, to be frank, such numbers verge on the almost meaningless. 3.

The Role of Confluence A chart pattern alone is not enough. Other factors should confirm reliability, such as: Volume Key support/resistance levels or zones Market sentiment indicators Moving Toward Higher Probability Entries & Exits There is no doubt, that one of the biggest mistakes traders make is focusing too much on entry setups while neglecting to balance this with as much attention on trade exits. While choosing the right entry is important, arguably it is the exit strategy that ultimately determines profitability.

The Reality of Chart Patterns in Trading Many traders enter the market with the assumption that recognizing chart patterns is enough to become profitable. They rely on historical probabilities and assume that a pattern’s past success rate will repeat itself in the future. However, as we’ve explored, trading is not that simple.

The true edge in trading does not come from pattern recognition alone. It is worth emphasizing that despite reservations related to the probabilities, for the reasons expressed earlier, one still shouldn’t dismiss these as completely irrelevant. Of course, entry remains important.

As a potentially more fruitful approach, one would suggest that effective use of this information comes from understanding when and how to use a pattern effectively within a broader context. A pattern might work 70% of the time in theory, but what happens if: The market conditions change? The volume doesn’t confirm the breakout?

A key resistance level invalidates the move? The trader manages the trade poorly, leading to an early exit? This is why trading success is not about blindly trusting probabilities—it is about using real-world, data-driven insights to determine when a pattern has the highest probability of success.

Key Lessons for Traders Moving Forward So how do we balance this? Perhaps a consistent reminder of some basic truths. Probabilities Are Not Absolute Patterns do not have fixed success rates.

Their effectiveness depends on market conditions, timeframe, volatility, and confluence factors. A double top on a 5-minute chart in a choppy market is not the same as a double top on a weekly chart in a trending market. Entry is Important, But Exit is Crucial Trade exits, risk management, and stop placement ultimately define profitability—not just how good an entry looks.

Dynamic exits, such as volatility-based trailing stops, often outperform rigid take-profit targets. A Trading System Must Evolve with, and be Responsive to, Market Conditions No system works forever. The best traders consistently refine their strategies based on new data and performance insights.

Journaling and backtesting allow traders to identify patterns that work best in their preferred market. Technology & Automation Can Improve Consistency in decision making Algorithmic backtesting can help traders quantify pattern reliability under different conditions. Using tools like MetaTrader Strategy Tester, or even basic journaling and meaningful evaluation can uncover insights that an overview analysis might miss.

Final Thought: The Path to Becoming a Data-Driven Trader So how do we summarise this in practical terms? Perhaps it is right to emphasise that the transition from an average trader to a successful one is not about memorising patterns but about developing a systematic approach to trading. A data-driven trader does not ask, 'Does this pattern work?' Instead, they ask, 'When does this pattern work best, and how can I optimize my strategy around it?' The difference is mindset - and mindset is what separates profitable traders from those who struggle.

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过去一周事件众多，周末复盘也仔细做了介绍。周五美股尾盘跳水，主要是基于美国落实对加拿大和墨西哥加征25%关税，其实上周股指下跌是预判准确的，上周一因Deepseek影响而崩塌经过后面几日的修复并未全面扭转美股的强势，这一点从高科技财报和美联储利率决议，四季度GDP以及核心PCE落地后市场的反应就可以体现。然而本周对美股的预期是不好的，至少股指难以上冲。周末加拿大和墨西哥均表态对美反击，特朗普率先打响的贸易战对美国股市的影响有待被验证，加上对中国加征10%关税的政策，肯定也会立即招来中国的反制，因此这几天美股的表现，需要看这几个国家对美国关税大棒的反制政策。本周十二月首周，非农数据又将影响美股走向，目前预测值17万增幅大幅低于前值，但不排除前值大幅下修，而预测值接近20万增幅也是中规中矩不至于拖累市场，加上时薪预期的回落和失业率没有上升，也并未对美联储利率政策形成迫切压力。本周有谷歌和亚马逊财报待公布，从上周高科技巨头公布的财报看，似乎没有像24年那样成为当时影响股指的主因，或许是因为近日更多其他更为重要的消息在影响市场。

在周五三大股指均小幅收跌的影响下，各板块基本普跌收盘，能源指数，铀矿和铜矿跌幅较大，AI方面应用公司走势强劲，成分股涨多跌少，谷歌，亚马逊，特斯拉和Meta均保持上行，微软也没有下跌，英伟达因Deepseek产生本质上对未来其发展效率的影响而持续下行。核能铀矿普跌，电力供应股在连续大涨后终于收下较明显回撤，但国际铀价并未下跌，加拿大可能对美关税反制很可能夹带对铀矿出口的影响，国际铀价很可能被进一步推高，美国核电板块的公司中长期就继续坚定看好。量子计算板块小幅收涨，但整体上升幅度不大，依然处于横向整理区间。机器人概念也是盘前大涨收盘回落仅收下小幅上涨。美元指数继续上冲，黄金勉强被压制在2800以下，后劲依然十足。美国大幅回落的四季度GDP并未形成对美元太多冲击，核心PCE没有回落和上周央行周加拿大和欧元区降息而美联储没有降息等综合因素均推高了美元，更有特朗普关税大棒开启，令美元短期无所顾忌，本土产业有了关税保护，竞争优势不减，变相也推高了美元。金价之所以持续冲高，也是为了避免被关税影响以及为全球贸易战而准备的避险需求。恐慌小幅上行，本周恐慌大概率难以下行。油价小幅反弹，但目前依然处于中期震荡区域的下区间。

外汇方面美元持续强势拖垮了非美货币，澳美已经跌破支撑来到0.615平台，能源价格大幅回落以及矿业前景的暗淡，令澳洲经济预期很差。日元相对稳健，美日并没有明显上涨，而美元人民币直接暴走冲上了7.36大关，就看贸易战后续中国的反应了，没有合适的应对策略单靠人民币贬值只会慢慢耗尽外汇储备。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

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股价过山车背后，一边是财报惨淡，一边是AI狂欢。

昨天1月30日美股盘后，特斯拉发布了一份堪称“灾难级”的四季度财报，但资本市场却上演了一出魔幻剧情：盘后股价先暴跌5%，随后迅速反弹上涨3%。这种撕裂的市场反应，恰如其分地映射出特斯拉当下的尴尬处境——坍塌的造车业务与狂飙的AI叙事，正在将特斯拉撕裂成两个世界。

现实世界：造车业务全面“塌方”？

若单看特斯拉的造车基本面，这份财报只能用“触目惊心”来形容。收入、毛利率、经营利润率三大核心指标全部低于预期，尤其是汽车业务的崩盘，让市场大跌眼镜。

首先是汽车单价“跳水”，毛利率创历史新低：

·汽车收入：198亿美元（预期217亿），缺口近20亿美元；

·单车收入：3.98万美元（预期4.14万），环比暴跌2200美元，创2024年以来最大跌幅；

·汽车毛利率：剔除碳积分后仅13.6%（预期16.2%），甚至低于二季度的“谷底”水平。

致命问题可能出在价格端，尽管四季度中美两大市场未直接降价，但特斯拉通过0息贷款、库存车折扣（最高4000美元）、旧款Model Y补贴等隐性手段变相促销，导致单车收入“隐形坍塌”。而原材料成本下降带来的单车成本节省（约500美元），在价格暴跌面前杯水车薪。

其次是经营利润跌至个位数，现金流恶化。

·经营利润率从三季度的7.6%骤降至6.1%，经营利润环比暴跌40%；

·自由现金流仅20亿美元，环比减少7亿，创2023年新低；

·研发费用暴涨至12.8亿美元（预期11.1亿），AI投入持续吸血传统业务。

造车业务可能沦为“现金奶牛”，利润空间被持续压缩，而马斯克的“AI梦想”正在吸走更多资源。

理想世界：AI画饼：特斯拉的“救命稻草”？

当造车故事难以为继，特斯拉的股价支撑已完全转向AI叙事。马斯克在电话会上用了近70%的时间谈论FSD（全自动驾驶）、Robotaxi和Optimus机器人，试图用未来科技对冲当下的业绩暴雷。

首先是 FSD寄期望于从技术突破到商业落地

·当前进展：FSD V13版本号称“重大干预里程提升2-3倍”，2025年将在美国推出无监督版服务；

·野心：渗透率目标从当前的10%提升至30%，Robotaxi计划6月奥斯丁试运营；

·障碍：中国和欧洲的法规壁垒（数据跨境限制、监管审批）仍是硬伤。

·关键矛盾：FSD的性能提升依赖美国本土数据，但特斯拉全球销量的40%来自中美欧以外市场，这些地区的用户无法贡献训练数据，形成技术迭代的“死循环”。

其次是Optimus机器人寄期望于从工厂到外销

2025目标：内部部署1万台，承担工厂生产任务；

2026野心：量产第二代机器人并对外销售；

现实质疑：当前Optimus行走速度仅0.6米/秒，且未解决复杂场景交互问题。

画饼逻辑：通过工厂“自产自用”验证可行性，但成本控制（当前单台成本约5万美元）和场景迁移能力仍是未知数。

综上，2025年或是特斯拉的“生死局”。特斯拉当下面临双重夹击：短期造车业务失速，长期AI故事需要巨额投入。而2025年将成为验证其战略可行性的关键窗口。

1.造车业务：增长引擎熄火？

销量指引“降级”：马斯克不再重申“2025年增长20%-30%”，仅模糊表示“重回正增长”；

Model 2.5也面临尴尬境地，低价车型（预期售价2.5万美元）被曝“减配为主”，在中国市场难敌比亚迪海鸥、五菱缤果；

IRA的补贴危机也悬而未决，若美国取消7500美元税收抵免，特斯拉需在“保销量”和“保毛利率”间二选一。

因此，市场预期或许在逐渐转向悲观，各大行对2025年销量预期仅195-205万辆（同比增长约10%），远低于管理层此前目标。

2.AI故事：需要回答三个灵魂拷问

·FSD能否兑现30%渗透率？当前仅10%，且用户吐槽“订阅不如单次付费”；

·Robotaxi会否沦为“奥斯丁特供”？美国本土数据训练的系统难适配全球路况；

·Optimus成本何时降至2万美元以下？（否则毫无商业化竞争力。

但是现实是，即便将FSD和Optimus的乐观预期打满，特斯拉合理估值上限约1.4万亿美元，当前市值已隐含过度乐观的“马斯克溢价”，特斯拉估值已严重偏离基本面。

当下的特斯拉，就像一家同时经营“传统车企”和“AI科技公司”的混合体。前者在红海中流血厮杀，后者在云端描绘星辰大海。资本市场选择相信后者，本质上是对马斯克个人IP的赌注——毕竟他曾在SpaceX和星链上复制过奇迹。

但投资人需要清醒，当一家公司的股价与基本面彻底脱钩，它要么成为下一个苹果，要么沦为下一个威马。特斯拉的故事，还能讲多久？

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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在本周，除了deepseek的横空出世，全球金融市场的目光还聚焦于美联储即将公布的利率决议。市场普遍预期美联储将维持当前利率不变，但特朗普总统近期的降息呼声为这一决议增添了不确定性。自2024年下半年以来，美联储连续三次降息，每次25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.25%-4.50%。这一系列降息的主要目的在于应对经济增速放缓，降低借贷成本并且缓解通胀压力。然而，近期数据显示，美国经济呈现出复杂的信号。2024年12月，非农就业人口增加25.6万人，远超市场预期的16.5万人，失业率降至4.1%。与此同时，通胀虽然回落但其实依旧高于预期，12月CPI同比上涨2.9%，核心CPI同比上涨3.2%，略低于预期的3.3%，但仍然高于美联储2%的通胀目标。

根据CME“美联储观察”，市场预期美联储在1月30日的会议上维持利率不变的概率为99.5%，降息25个基点的概率仅为0.5%。然而，特朗普总统近期表示，希望美联储立即降息，声称自己“比美联储更懂利率”，并计划在“合适的时候”与美联储主席鲍威尔讨论此事。特朗普的表态引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，毕竟特朗普曾经在2018到2019年强烈要求美联储降息，并且最终却是促成了美联储从2019年下半年开始降息，这表明虽然美联储强调政策独立，但政治影响依然不容忽视，所以特朗普这次的发言也增加了对未来货币政策走向的不确定性。本周，除美联储外，欧洲央行、瑞典央行、加拿大央行、巴西央行和南非央行等也将公布利率决议。其中，欧洲央行备受关注。多位欧洲央行官员表示支持进一步降息，行长拉加德在进入静默期前表示，渐进式降息可能会持续，政策制定者有信心通胀率将在2025年达到2%的目标 。市场普遍预计欧洲央行将在本周会议上将关键政策利率下调25个基点，未来可能还会进一步降息。

在当前环境下，我们应该重点关注以下方面：1. 美联储的政策声明和鲍威尔的讲话：任何关于未来货币政策方向的暗示都可能引发市场波动。2. 全球其他央行的政策行动：尤其是欧洲央行的降息决定及其对欧元区经济的影响。3. 特朗普政府的政策动向：特别是可能对美联储施加的压力，以及对全球贸易政策的影响。总体而言，本周的央行决议和相关政策声明将为我们下一步的投资决策提供重要的指引，帮助我们在全球经济充满不确定性的背景下作出适合自己的决定。此外，作为投资者我们还要密切关注关注即将公布的美国2024年第四季度GDP初值，以及即将发布的科技巨头财报，这些数据将为评估经济健康状况和企业盈利能力提供进一步的线索。在全球经济充满不确定性的背景下，央行的政策决策和政府的政策动向将对市场产生深远影响。投资者需密切关注这些动态，以制定相应的投资策略。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

As we sit here and watch our overseas central bank counterparts move on interest rates. Our central bank gave us a new term, to explain why rate cuts are a long way off in their thinking. This term “sustainably” – that is “sustainably back to target”, “sustainable path”, and a hundred other zingers that basically point out that the central bank doesn’t think we are returning to the target band of its inflation mandate.

Yet despite this language and rhetoric, the movement in the market is – muted, bordering disobedient. The movement in the AUD has been strong as seen in the chart below. But that is basically down to the news out of China, (which we will come to later) and the US Fed finally pushing the trigger.

But domestically - the interbank and bond markets see rate cuts much sooner than the Board does, and if you look at the differentials between the RBA and the rest, there is a strong argument that the uptick in the AUD should be more than has occurred. What are we missing? So, what is it that the market sees that the RBA is missing?

Or more importantly – what does the RBA see that the market isn’t taking as seriously? First – we need to really drill into the August monthly inflation read, because there is some reasonable dispute between Board and Market. The headline monthly inflation rate fell to 2.7% and marks the first time in the post inflation era that Australia’s inflation has been back in the target 2% to 3% band.

Couple this with its decline from 3.5% in July and 4.0% in June. Thus, maybe the market has a point as it marks the lowest annual inflation rate since August 2021 and a sharp contrast to the 8.8% peak in December 2022. Which is why a lot are crowing about this chart from the ABS.

This may seem like a positive sign that inflation is under control and is ‘returning’ to a sustainable level, under the hood of the headlines, the data tells a different story. For example: The monthly index recorded a 0.24% decline between July and August, after a ‘no change’ from June to July. This decline is mainly down to a 0.58% increase in prices last August falling out of the 12-month calculation, so that is a one of and would be transitory and not sustainable.

We are also about to see another technicality happen this month when a similar 0.58% increase from September 2022 drops out. Even if we see a modest 0.2% rise between August and September, the headline inflation rate will likely fall further, potentially reaching 2.3% by September. This is a ‘seller beware’ issue for traders, bears will make a lot of noise about this but the RBA has made it clear here, it’s not for moving.

Next example: the August inflation drop is largely attributed to temporary relief measures. The whopping 14.6% decline in electricity prices in August was a direct result of the federal government’s $300 energy relief measure. The Queensland and WA state governments threw in $1000 and $400 respectively adding further downside in energy inflation.

Interestingly enough – since this has been pointed out the government has stated it might make the subsidy ‘semi-permanent’ again this is artificial and something the Governor has stated is transient. Finally August saw a 3.1% fall in petrol prices due to lower global oil prices – something that is likely to hold true for most of September but the increase tensions in the Middle East over the past week and China properly stimulating itself for the first time in the post COVID world coupled with the approaching Northern hemisphere winter that 3.1% reduction will be quickly returned. These highlight why the RBA never really pays much attention to headlines month-to-month quarter to quarter as it bounces around randomly.

And AUD traders in particular would be prudent to remember this. Stuck like a fly in a honey pot The catch with chasing the headline inflation figure is that although it may be back within the RBA’s target band the critical trimmed mean inflation rate, which excludes the most extreme price movers, is not. The trimmed mean rose by 3.4% over the year to August, down from 3.8% in July and 4.1% in June.

Now some will argue that is close to the band, but it’s still significantly above the RBA’s target range midpoint of 2.5% which is seen as the magical ‘sustainable’ point the RBA needs. For more context if we collate the first two months of the September quarter, the calculated annual underlying inflation rate sits at 3.6% even further away from the band and mid-point. The RBA’s most recent Statement of Monetary Policy forecast expects this to ease to 3.5% by the December quarter.

A full 1% above the midpoint illustrating just how stubborn inflation has been to budge. It’s even more of a headache when you look at where the stickiness sits Have a look at service-based inflation of education, health and financial services – these are all over 5% year on year. Then have a look at the housing.

Rent increases are still sitting at 6.8%, New dwellings 5.1%. These five things make up more than a third of the total CPI basket. There is nothing sustainable about these figures.

RBA versus the Market The RBA has been a pain to point out the issues of ‘purchasing power’, that long term issue of cost compounding on themselves and making essentials unattainable in the long run. This old adage is running through our heads: “short term pain for long term gain” thus from our views interest rates are staying on hold for the rest of 2024 as the RBA seems determined to make the inflation rate fall further before acting. Yet you wouldn't know it judging by the perception in the market - it is still pricing in a near enough to 75% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting.

How is that conclusion being reached? If we take what has been stated by the RBA as ‘baseline’ there is next to no information the RBA sees between November and December that would justify a cut especially if they do not cut in November. The only piece of additional information is the September quarter GDP figures (due first full week of December).

If that was to register a contraction and a recession is on the cards then maybe. That’s the only data that could trigger the RBA this year – but considering Government spending in this quarter is so large, the consumer will have had to really bottomed out and retail sales while poor are not that bad. With this in mind there is a real justification for the AUD to be higher than it currently is.

Each time we see another piece of data that is weak but not weak enough should be an upside mover for the currency. We are not normally ones to fight the market as the trend is your friend, and we are not considering the AUD has moved some 3.8% in September alone. It's more – we think the upside has more to go as the market realises it under-pricing a more hawkish RBA and it isn’t going to deliver Australian debtholders a Christmas present.