从4月之前外汇市场的实际情况开始：地缘政治冲击，中东的石油供应受到压力。整个货币市场的直接反应是交易者以前所见过的：资金流向安全，向收益率转移，并远离任何看似可能受到干扰的东西。
避险资金流遇收益率差异
美元同时受益于这两种力量。它是一个避风港，它还具有目前大多数同行无法比拟的收益优势。瑞士法郎吸收了欧洲避险情绪带来的部分溢出。过去几乎自动吸引避险资金的日元却陷入了完全不同的境地，现在兑美元的收益率差距如此之大，以至于避险逻辑被套利逻辑所取代。
本月最艰难的货币是处于中间位置的货币：风险敏感型、与大宗商品挂钩的货币或根本无法竞争的运行政策利率。新西兰元是最明显的例子，而澳元则是一个更混乱的故事。其背后是对2026年降息预期的重新定价，多个国家的中央银行现在正在重新评估这些预期。
DXY context
Regained 100 on geopolitical risk
Strongest currency
USD — safe haven plus yield
Weakest currency
NZD — yield gap plus energy
Main central bank theme
Repricing of 2026 rate cut paths
Main catalyst ahead
Fed and BOJ policy meetings
Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers
01
USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strong
02
CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Up
03
JPY
Highly volatile; fell to 20-month lows before intervention commentary.
Volatile
04
AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
05
NZD
Fell sharply; pressured by energy exposure and capital outflows.
Weak
最强推动者：美元（美元）
随着美联储降息和世界其他地区追赶，美元在2025年的大部分时间里逐渐下跌。这个故事在三月下旬停滞不前。伊朗冲突改变了计算方式，美元重新站稳了脚跟，这在某种程度上反映了其在全球市场中的结构性地位。
美国出口石油，当能源价格上涨时，这是贸易条件的改善，而不是贸易条件的冲击。美元的大多数主要货币都处于这个方程式的另一边。再加上3.50％至3.75％的政策利率区间，该区间现在看起来锁定了更长时间，美元的优势既是周期性的，也是结构性的。美元指数（DXY）已重回100水平，但进入4月份的问题是它是保持在这一水平还是进一步推动。
Key drivers
-
Safe-haven demand:
The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
-
Yield advantage:
The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
-
Energy insulation:
The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
-
Rate cut repricing:
Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.
What markets are watching next
The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.
The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.
最弱的走势：新西兰元（NZD）
如果你想设计一种在当前环境下会陷入困境的货币，那么新西兰元几乎完全符合这个要求。它对风险敏感。它与大宗商品挂钩。它的政策利率为2.25％，低于美联储，现在也低于澳洲联储。新西兰也是能源进口国，因此油价上涨同时打击了贸易平衡和国内通货膨胀前景。
这些都不是什么新鲜事物，但在美元飙升和普遍避险情绪的背景下，所有这些因素同时冲击，以一种不容忽视的方式压制了纽元。曾经使新西兰元具有吸引力的套利交易已经逆转，因为资本一直在流出，而不是流入。
Key drivers
-
Energy import exposure:
Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
-
Yield gap:
The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
-
Risk-off positioning:
As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
-
Trade uncertainty:
Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.
Risks and constraints
Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.
But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.
美元/日元
美元/日元是最清楚地说明当货币的避险地位被套利逻辑所覆盖时会发生什么情况的货币对。日元曾经是交易者在地缘政治压力下寻求保护的第一个停靠港。这种动态已经被抑制，原因很简单：你现在为了持有日元而放弃了太多的收益率。
日本银行（BOJ）的政策利率为0.75％，而美联储的政策利率为3.50％至3.75％，这一差距不鼓励避险资金流动。它鼓励以日元借款并在其他地方部署。因此，尽管美元因地缘政治风险而上涨，但日元也因同样的事件而下跌。这不是它应该如何运作，但当收益率差异如此之大时，数学就是这样计算的。
美元/日元位于159附近，这与日本财政部一直将160列为需要关注的水平相差不远。4月27日和28日的日本央行会议现在是真正的现场直播。
Key events to watch
-
Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT):
March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
-
BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST):
Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
-
Intervention watch:
Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.
What could shift the outlook
A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.
For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.
接下来要关注的数据
未来几周，有四个事件是最明显的潜在外汇催化剂。两者都有通向利率预期的直接传导渠道，利率预期是目前外汇市场的大部分变动的推动力。
Key dates and FX sensitivity
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT
A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT
A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST
The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST
The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.
关键关卡和信号
这些是交易者和决策者最密切关注的参考点。每一个都可能是定位转变或官方应对措施的潜在触发因素。
-
◆
DXY 100.00
A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.
-
◆
USD/JPY 160.00
Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.
-
◆
Brent crude US$120
A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.
-
◆
AUD/USD 0.7000
This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.
Bottom line
The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.
One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.
进入更广阔的外汇世界，并在条件变化时保持灵活性。
开设一个账户 · 登录
