2026 年1 月 29日，全球黄金市场经历了“疯狂星期四”。金价在站上 5600 美元 巅峰后，随即上演了时速惊人的“自由落体”，一度跌破 5100 美元。这一波动不仅刷新了单日振幅纪录，更让全市场见证了高位杠杆博弈的残酷性。

一、 5602 到 5097：为何会出现 500美元的“闪崩”？

这场高位跳水并非偶然，而是多重压力瞬间释放的结果：

1. 极度超买后的“技术性多杀多”：

1 月以来金价涨幅已近 30%，RSI 指数一度飙升至 90 以上。在 5600 美元这个极值点，获利盘的离场指令引发了连环踩踏，导致盘面瞬间失去支撑。

2. 流动性“黑洞”与自动止损触发：

当金价从 5600 跌落至 5400 附近时，由于短线资金过于密集，触发了海量高频交易系统的强制平仓单。在缺乏买盘承接的深夜时段，金价出现“真空式”下跌，一路跌向 5100 美元 这个前期重要支撑区。

3. 白银市场的溢出效应：

昨晚现货白银从 120 美元高位一度暴跌 12%，作为联动性极强的贵金属兄弟，白银的剧烈崩盘直接拖累了黄金的信心。

二、 核心驱动逻辑的变化：从“单边狂欢”到“宽幅震荡”

尽管跌幅惊人，但 5100 美元 的迅速企稳也传递了关键信号：

•基本面依然强劲：美联储虽在 1 月 29 日凌晨维持利率不变，但其“鸽派停顿”和对通胀的默许，意味着实际利率的下行趋势未改。

•避险底色仍在：美伊局势及全球关税政策带来的不确定性，使得 5100 美元以下依然有强劲的买盘（如各国央行和长线主权基金）在“接飞刀”。

三、 市场新常态：黄金已进入“超高波动率”时代

昨晚的行情告诉我们，目前的黄金已经不再是那个“慢牛”的避险资产，它表现出了明显的“类数字货币”特征：

•估值锚点模糊：在信用货币受质疑的背景下，市场在5100 与 5600 之间反复寻找新的定价共识。

•散户 FOMO 情绪高涨：国内金饰报价突破 1700 元/克，这种全民抢金的狂热，往往伴随着极高的波动风险。

结语：趋势未死，但“杠杆”已死

昨晚 5600 至 5100 的惊心动魄，是一次教科书式的风险出清。它标志着本轮行情从“共识性上涨”进入了“高波动震荡期”。

•长期看：黄金作为对冲信用风险的地位依然稳固。

•短期看：5100 美元已成为本轮行情的“生命线”。

‍

Global markets enter a catalyst-dense week where multiple central bank decisions, ongoing US earnings, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may help shape near-term direction.

‍

• RBA rate decision: Market expectations lean towards a Target Cash Rate increase.
• Global central banks: The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) both communicate within the same week, creating the potential for policy cross-currents.
• US earnings: The earnings cycle continues with Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week.
• Gold: Trading near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations.

‍

RBA rate decision

• RBA decision Tuesday, 3 February, 2:30 pm (AEDT)
• RBA media conference: Tuesday, 3 February, 3:30 pm (AEDT)

A 67% likelihood of a rate rise is suggested on the RBA rate-tracker within the futures pricing framework, indicating a market-implied probability of a move. 

Market impact

• AUD pairs may respond quickly to any repricing of the rate path.
• Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see rotation.
• Government bond yields may adjust if expectations shift.

‍

ECB and BoE of England

Key decision timing

• ECB monetary policy meeting: 4–5 February
• BoE announcement: Thursday, 5 February

When several major central banks communicate within the same window, markets often focus on forward guidance as much as the decisions themselves.

Market impact

• EUR and GBP volatility may increase around policy communication.
• Relative yield expectations could influence capital flows.
• Equity sentiment may respond to shifts in liquidity assumptions.

‍

US earnings continue

The earnings cycle remains active, with investors typically focusing on guidance, margins, and capital expenditure alongside headline results. 

After an extended equity advance, consistent outcomes may help stabilise sentiment, while disappointments can influence short-term positioning.

Scheduled earnings

• Walt Disney: Monday, 2 February (US time)/ Tuesday, 3 February (AEDT)
• Palantir Technologies: Monday, 2 February (US time)/ Tuesday, 3 February (AEDT)
• Advanced Micro Devices: Tuesday, 3 February (US time)/ Wednesday, 4 February (AEDT)
• PayPal: Tuesday, 3 February (US time, after market close)/ Wednesday, 4 February (AEDT)
• Alphabet: Wednesday, 4 February (US time, after market close)/ Thursday,5 February (AEDT)
• Amazon: Thursday, 5 February (US time, after market close)/ Friday, 6 February (AEDT)

Additional notable reporters across the week include Eli Lilly, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, Ford, and Roblox. 

*All above dates observed as of 30 January 2026; dates subject to change.

Market impact

• Index moves may hinge on guidance durability across companies.
• Volatility may cluster around major releases.
• First reporters in each sector may influence other companies yet to report.

‍

Why gold remains in focus

Gold has traded near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. For many traders, strength in gold is sometimes associated with defensive positioning, though gold prices can be volatile and can fall. 

The US dollar, Treasury yield movements and geopolitical narrative often influence short-term direction.

Market impact

• Continued strength may suggest some investors are leaning toward defensive positioning.
• USD and sovereign yield movements often influence short-term direction.
• After a strong advance, periods of consolidation or profit-taking are common.

Expected earnings date: Thursday, 5 February 2026 (US, after market close)/early Friday, 6 February 2026

Amazon’s earnings provide insight into global consumer spending trends, cloud infrastructure demand, and the monetisation of its ecosystem across retail, advertising, and subscription services.

Focus is expected to remain on performance across key business areas, along with commentary on cost efficiency, capital expenditure, and AI-related investments, including data centre expansion. 

‍

Key areas in focus

Online stores and third-party services

Amazon’s core retail business remains sensitive to discretionary consumer demand, particularly through the December-quarter holiday period. Markets are likely to focus on revenue growth and margins across both first-party retail and third-party seller services. Cost pressures will also be evaluated. 

AWS (Amazon Web Services)

AWS is a key earnings driver. Investors are likely to focus on revenue growth rates, margin trends, and indications around enterprise cloud spending. AI workloads will also be noteworthy. Any commentary on capacity expansion and capex is likely to be closely watched.  

Advertising services

Amazon’s advertising business has become an increasingly important profit contributor. Markets are likely to assess growth momentum, advertiser demand, and how advertising integrates across Amazon’s retail and Prime ecosystems.  

Subscription services (including Prime)

Subscription revenue includes Prime memberships and related digital services. Investors may watch engagement, pricing dynamics, and retention trends as indicators of ecosystem strength. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has previously emphasised the need for cost discipline across fulfilment, logistics, and corporate expenses. Reported operating margins and any updates on efficiency gains or reinvestment priorities across key business services will be of interest. 

‍

What happened last quarter

Amazon’s most recent quarterly update reported revenue growth and operating income outcomes, with AWS and advertising referenced as key contributors, alongside ongoing cost-control measures across the retail business. 

The prior update also included discussion relevant to investment priorities in cloud and AI infrastructure, which continue to influence market expectations. 

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$180.2 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.95 (diluted) 
• AWS revenue: US$33.0 billion 
• Advertising services revenue: US$17.7 billion 
• Operating income: US$17.4 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Amazon shares moved higher in after-hours trading following the previous release, based on reporting at the time. 

‍

‍

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus estimates point to year-on-year EPS growth for the quarter ended December 2025, with markets focused on the revenue outcome, operating margins, and AWS performance, given the importance of the December quarter (Q4) to Amazon’s earnings profile. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• EPS: about US$1.60 
• Revenue: about US$170 billion 
• Full-year FY2026 EPS: about US$5.10 

*All above points observed as of 27 January 2026.

‍

Expectations

Market sentiment around Amazon may be sensitive to any disappointment in AWS growth, operating margins, or December-quarter (Q4 2025) retail performance, given the stock’s large index weighting within major US equity indices and its role in these areas. 

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±4% to ±5% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT, 28 January 2026. 

Implied volatility was approximately 32% annualised at that time. 

These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

‍

What this means for Australian investors

Amazon’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release. It may also influence sentiment towards ASX-listed companies with significant online sales exposure.

‍

Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.