US Trade vs the World Since Donald Trump became the President of the United States in 2016, we have heard him say a lot about the "unbelievably bad" trade agreements the world’s largest economy has with some countries around the world. We have already seen Trump attempt to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which has reached a deadlock, and there is a possibility of the US scrapping the decades-old agreement between Canada and Mexico. But how does the trade balance look between the US and other nations around the world?
Trade Surplus President Trump has said that "We don't have any good deals. In fact, I'm trying to find a country where we actually have a surplus of trade as opposed to... Everything's a deficit." However, there are many countries which the US has a positive trade balance with.
It’s largest trade surplus is with Hong Kong at $29.7 billion, followed by the Netherlands. The US exports reached nearly $37 billion with Hong Kong in 2017 (from January to November) with $6.9 billion worth of goods imported. However, some analysts are suggesting that Hong Kong’s trade with the US will suffer from the ongoing tensions between the two largest economies in the world.
Trade Deficit Trump has aimed some strong words towards the countries which the US has a negative trade balance with. Most of the criticism has been towards the trading relationship with China – the world’s second largest economy. He may have a point as the trade deficit stands at a whopping $344.4 billion (year-to-date).
Trump said – "With China we have close to a $500 billion trade deficit, so we have to do something. I spoke to the president, I spoke to many people — we're going to work on that very, very hard. And we're going to do things that are the proper things to do." The second largest trade deficit is with one of Americas two closest neighbours – Mexico.
Donald Trump has slated the NAFTA agreement in particular, which he has called a disaster for US manufacturing. However, since Trump was elected we have seen some big American companies move their production back to the US. Most recently Fiat Chrysler, the world’s eighth largest auto maker announced its plans to move production of its Ram heavy pickup trucks from Mexico to Michigan.
Moving production of the Ram, which is mainly sold in the US and Canada, means that Fiat Chrysler will not be paying the high import duties which are likely to apply if the NAFTA agreement is rolled back. Overall, we can see why Trump has been criticising the trading agreements with some countries around the world. But will he be able to change it during his presidency?
His current actions would suggest that the United States’ trade policies will be changing.
By
GO Markets
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.
The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
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The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Source: US Energy Information Administration, dated June 17, 2025, using 2024 daily average
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
🌋 Trump, volatility and Hormuz.
As tariff shocks collide with a ten year extreme in oil positioning, the margin for error is zero. See the technical markers and safe haven pivots defining the current risk environment.
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
GO Markets — Idle Tankers: Days of Cover
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
6.75 daysof Hormuz throughput covered
6.75 days
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
1.3 daysof world demand covered
1.3 days
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135 daysof full SPR release pace covered
135 days — but SPR exists to replace this role
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Indicative market trajectories based on disruption severity
Scenarios for the weeks ahead
1–2 WEEKS
Ceasefire catch-up
Markets face catch-up repricing. Brent could consolidate in the US$105–US$115 range as risk premia unwind. Brent may trade lower (US$95–US$110) if strategic stocks bridge the temporary shortfall.
2–4 WEEKS
Infrastructure blitz
Shifts to structural supply shock. Brent moving toward US$150–US$200 cannot be ruled out. This is the stagflation trigger where energy costs constrain central bank flexibility.
STRUCTURAL
Geopolitical floor
Iran's transit fee demand creates a permanent input cost. The pre-crisis price structure (US$60–US$70) may not return, embedded in insurance and freight rates.
Critical Threshold
US$120 remains the level at which energy inflation becomes a direct Federal Reserve policy problem.
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
🛢️ Brent hits $100.
Exxon and SLB are leading the rotation out of tech. Get the price targets and technical support levels for the top 5 energy majors.
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
Market Opportunity
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A headline about a civilisation "dying tonight" is built to overwhelm, but the more telling signal may be the calm underneath it, because markets are starting to treat this cycle of sharp escalation followed by sudden de-escalation as a pattern, not a surprise.
In macro circles, that pattern has a blunt label: TACO, or "Trump Always Chickens Out". The phrase is loaded, but the logic is simple. A maximum-pressure threat hits, risk assets wobble, then a pause, delay or softer outcome appears once the economic cost starts to bite.
That does not mean the risk is small. It may just mean investors have grown used to a script where rhetoric flares, markets absorb the shock, and restraint shows up before the worst-case scenario fully lands.
Developing situation
|
Strait of Hormuz | Section 122 Tariffs
PublishedApril 2026
Brent CrudeAbove US$100
VIX31
In focus6 markets
Oil PositioningDecade-low longs
The Framework & MechanismIs the market the red line?
+
This is where the TACO idea starts to matter. Traders are not just watching the rhetoric. They are watching when it starts to hit markets, inflation and the wider economy.
Oil is at the centre of that risk. If disruption around the Strait of Hormuz starts to threaten global energy flows, the story quickly becomes macro. Higher oil can lift inflation expectations, pressure central banks and tighten financial conditions.
That is why a pause can look less like diplomacy and more like pressure relief. The real red line may be the point where the economic damage becomes too obvious to ignore.
Short Squeezed
Positioning adds another layer. Oil still looks under-owned, with futures positioning near decade-long bearish extremes. If a fresh shock lands, short-covering could drive prices higher much faster than fundamentals alone would suggest.
That is the short-squeeze risk. In the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, recent data suggests oil long exposure is relatively low by historical standards.
Humanitarian Reality
Whatever may be promised in political messaging, any sustained conflict in Iran would carry a heavy cost in displacement, infrastructure damage and wider regional stress. A relief rally in markets does not change that.
Global Isolation
Even if pauses are used to steady domestic market sentiment, allies and multilateral institutions may view bluff-and-retreat tactics as a credibility problem that creates longer-term diplomatic friction.
Positioning gap indicator
Divergence analysis between positioning and risk environment
APRIL 2026
Bars show GO Markets’ internal estimate of the divergence between current futures positioning and levels seen in comparable historical shock environments.
Brent crudeExtreme
Gold (XAU/USD)Very high
Nasdaq 100High
USD/CNHHigh
US 10 yr yieldMedium
USD/CADMedium
Extreme decade scale positioning extreme
High significant divergence
Medium moderate divergence
Methodology note
The Positioning Gap Indicator is based on GO Markets’ internal analysis and is intended as a high-level, illustrative framework only. It uses a combination of market positioning data, historical comparisons and discretionary assumptions about how similar energy and trade shocks have affected markets in the past. The ‘Extreme’, ‘Very High’, ‘High’ and ‘Medium’ labels are relative internal classifications, not objective market standards, and should not be relied on as predictions, forecasts or a guarantee of future outcomes.
The Six Markets
The six markets that matter most
Each of these six markets is exposed to the current situation through a different mechanism. Understanding the mechanism, not just the price, matters. It helps explain whether a move is a headline reaction or the start of something broader. Tap any card to expand the full analysis.
01
BRENT
Brent crude oil
ENERGYDIRECT CHANNELSQUEEZE RISK: EXTREME
+
The Clear Transmission Channel
Brent is the international benchmark for crude and the most direct transmission mechanism in this geopolitical thesis. Any disruption to physical flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, forces an immediate tightening of global energy supply.
The Positioning Backdrop
Futures positioning currently sits at a ten year bearish extreme. Leveraged funds have cut long exposure heavily. In the event of a physical supply shock, this imbalance creates the potential for a violent short covering squeeze.
● Bull Case
Hormuz disruption extends beyond four weeks. Extended disruption could lift Brent sharply if supply flows are impaired for longer.
● Bear Case
Diplomatic intervention reopens the strait quickly. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases and increased spare capacity cap any price rally.
Strategic Marker
US$120: the point at which energy inflation becomes a direct Federal Reserve policy problem, rather than just a market narrative.
02
XAU/USD
Gold
SAFE HAVENUNDER-OWNEDSQUEEZE RISK: VERY HIGH
+
The Counter-Intuitive Setup
Despite a clear geopolitical risk profile, leveraged funds have been reducing bullish gold exposure. This leaves the market under-owned at the exact moment the fundamental case for safe haven assets is strengthening.
The Inflation Variable
The critical factor for Gold is whether energy-driven inflation limits the Fed's room to maneuver. If policy flexibility weakens, Gold could catch up quickly as a hedge against stagflation.
● Bull Case
Real yields fall as energy inflation outpaces rate hikes. Under-owned positioning amplifies the catch up move as institutional funds rebuild exposure.
● Bear Case
Geopolitical tensions ease rapidly. The Fed remains credibly focused on inflation, keeping real yields positive and supporting the USD over Gold.
Strategic Marker
One level to monitor is prior resistance, alongside any change in COT positioning.
03
US100/NAS100
Nasdaq 100
TECHNOLOGYDUAL PRESSURERATE AND SUPPLY RISK
+
Why it is a complicated position
The Nasdaq faces immediate pressure from two fronts: Stickier energy-driven inflation forces rates higher for longer, compressing multiples, while trade tensions unsettle the supply chains beneath major tech names.
Why the 10 year yield matters here
When the 10 year Treasury yield holds above 4.5%, the future value of technology earnings must be discounted at a higher rate. AI linked earnings momentum must overpower this valuation headwind.
● Bull Case
Earnings season delivers proof of AI investment generating real revenue. Index components successfully insulate supply chains, and AI capex momentum overrides the macro headwind.
● Bear Case
Energy inflation keeps yields above 4.5%. Multiple compression in high valuation names triggers a broader index decline amid disappointments in AI monetization.
Strategic Marker
S&P 500 at 6,498: a widely watched Fibonacci cluster. A sustained move below this threshold highlights a historically challenging framework for growth equities.
04
USD/CNH
US dollar/offshore Chinese yuan
FXBEIJING READPOLICY PROXY
+
What it tells you
USD/CNH is the cleanest real time read on how Beijing is responding to tariff pressure. A sharp rise suggests China is allowing currency weakness to absorb the costs of trade friction.
Why it matters beyond China
A move in USD/CNH doesn't stay contained. It spills into Asian equities, commodity demand, and broader risk appetite. Deliberate depreciation signals a shift in the global trade environment.
● USD Bull / Yuan Bear
Beijing allows yuan weakness as a deliberate countermeasure. Capital outflows accelerate, and USD safe haven demand reinforces the move.
● Yuan Recovery
Trade negotiations begin and a face saving off ramp is found. PBOC intervention defends the yuan, and the dollar's safe haven premium fades.
Strategic Marker
7.30 on USD/CNH: a sustained move above this has historically been associated with broader risk off moves in Asian markets.
05
US10Y/TNOTE
US 10 year Treasury yield
RATESMACRO PLUMBINGSHAPES EVERYTHING ELSE
+
Why it sits under everything
The 10 year yield shapes mortgage costs, corporate borrowing, and the valuation framework for risk assets globally. When it rises, borrowing becomes more expensive across the entire system.
The Independent Movement Risk
If oil forces the Fed to delay cuts, the 10 year yield could rise regardless of Fed communication. It can tighten financial conditions even before a formal policy shift occurs.
● Rates Fall Case
Oil shock proves transient. Fed maintains guidance and 10 year yields pull back toward 4.0%, relieving pressure on equities and providing support for bonds.
● Rates Rise Case
Sustained oil above US$100 pushes inflation higher. Fed pauses rate cut language and the 10 year yield breaks above 4.5%, compressing equity multiples.
Strategic Marker
4.5% on the 10 year yield: a sustained break above this while oil remains above US$100 is a historically challenging combination for equities.
06
USD/CAD
US dollar/offshore Canadian dollar
FXOIL-LINKEDLEAD INDICATOR
+
The Double Exposure
USD/CAD is a lead indicator because Canada sits at the intersection of energy and trade. It benefits from higher oil revenue but is highly sensitive to US economic and trade conditions.
When the Forces Collide
When oil rises, the CAD often strengthens; when trade stress rises, it weakens. In the current environment, these forces are colliding rather than canceling each other out.
● CAD Strengthens
Oil sustained above US$100 boosts export revenue while trade tensions stay short of Canada specific tariffs. Bank of Canada holds rates steady.
● CAD Weakens
Safe haven USD demand outweighs the oil benefit. Bank of Canada cuts rates to offset trade headwinds.
Strategic Marker
1.42 on USD/CAD: a sustained move above this signals trade anxiety is dominating the oil benefit, often preceding broader risk off moves.
What could go wrong
Four reasons the market logic could fail
+
A coherent macro case is still only a case. Markets regularly ignore tidy narratives for longer than expected, or invalidate them quickly. Four failure paths stand out.
1
The situation de-escalates faster than the news cycle suggests
Geopolitical risk premia can build slowly and disappear quickly. Any credible sign of de-escalation, especially around shipping lanes or energy infrastructure, could reverse oil sharply and drain urgency from the rest of the thesis. This is precisely the scenario the TACO framework predicts.
2
Tariff posturing does not become tariff policy
The market may be reacting to opening positions rather than settled policy. If Washington and Beijing find a face-saving off-ramp, as they have in previous trade disputes, currency and equity moves that anticipated escalation could unwind just as fast as they built.
3
AI investment spending overrides the macro headwind
Technology capital expenditure has remained more resilient than expected for much of the past two years. If earnings season shows that AI infrastructure spending is still translating into real demand and returns, the growth narrative may reassert itself, particularly in the Nasdaq 100.
4
The squeeze never arrives: extended positioning holds for longer than expected
Stretched positioning does not automatically produce a violent reprice. Markets can stay under-owned for months if risk appetite remains weak and institutions are unwilling to rebuild exposure. The set-up can exist without the catalyst arriving in a way that forces the move.
Forward Calendar
What to watch and when
+
Three time horizons matter here. The first tests supply resilience. The second tests financial system health. The third tests whether any shift in market leadership is cyclical or structural.
Three horizon watchlist
Signals and catalysts across the next two months
Next Two Weeks
Chipmaker guidance and supply commentary
Major semiconductor earnings calls will offer an early read on whether supply bottlenecks are worsening and whether management teams are changing production assumptions. If supply commentary deteriorates, the inflation story gets another push and the case for higher for longer rates strengthens.
Next 30 Days
Bank earnings and loan demand
Major US banks will provide a useful check on whether capital spending related to AI infrastructure is still being financed. The most important signal may not be earnings per share. It may be commercial loan demand. If businesses are pulling back on borrowing, the growth cycle may be softening earlier than the market expects.
Next 60 Days
Enablers versus spenders
The more structural test is whether the market begins rewarding businesses that produce physical outputs: energy producers, hardware makers and defence contractors, while penalising software companies that still cannot prove a clear return on AI spending. A wider performance gap between those groups would suggest something deeper than a temporary rotation.
The path ahead
The current convergence of geopolitical tension and historical positioning extremes has created a unique "coiled spring" environment for global markets. While the TACO framework suggests a pattern of sharp escalation followed by strategic pauses, the real test for traders over the next 60 days will be the transition from headline-driven volatility to structural market rotation.
Whether the positioning gap closes through a gentle de-escalation or a violent short squeeze, having a defined reaction framework can help traders navigate the noise.
Market Opportunity
Don't just watch the squeeze. Trade the framework.
As positioning gaps hit decade extremes, access advanced charting tools and real time execution on the six key markets defining this cycle.
Here is the situation as April begins. A war is affecting one of the world's most important oil chokepoints. Brent crude is trading above US$100. And the Federal Reserve (Fed), which spent much of 2025 engineering a soft landing, is now facing an inflation threat driven less by wages, services or the domestic economy, and more by energy. It is watching an oil shock.
The Fed funds rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on 28 and 29 April and the key question for markets is not whether the Fed will cut, it is whether the Fed can cut, or whether the energy shock may have shut that door for much of 2026.
A heavy run of major data releases lands in April. The March consumer price index (CPI), non-farm payrolls (NFP) and the advance estimate of Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) are the three that matter most. But the FOMC statement on 29 April may be the release that sets the tone for the rest of the year.
Fed Funds Rate
3.50%–3.75%
Next FOMC
28–29 April 2026
Brent crude
Above US$100
Key data events
12 major releases
Growth: Business activity and demand
Think about what the US economy looked like coming into this year: AI-driven capital expenditure (capex) was a major part of the growth narrative, corporate investment intentions looked firm and the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act was already in the mix. On paper, the growth story looked solid.
Then the Strait of Hormuz situation changed the calculus. Not because the US is a net energy importer, it is not, and that structural insulation matters. But what is good for US energy producers can still squeeze margins elsewhere and weigh on global demand. The 30 April advance Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) estimate is now likely to be read through two lenses: how strong was the economy before the shock, and what it may signal about the quarters ahead.
Key dates (AEST)
2
Apr
US international trade in goods and services (February)
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 10:30 pm AEDT
Medium
30
Apr
Q1 GDP — advance estimate
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 10:30 pm AEST
High
What markets look for
Resilience in Q1 GDP despite the elevated interest rate environment and early energy cost pressures
Trade balance movements linked to shifting global tariff frameworks
Business investment intentions following passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"
Early signs of capacity constraints emerging in technology-heavy sectors
How this data may move markets
Scenario
Treasuries
USD
Equities
Stronger than expected growth
↑ Yields rise
↑ Firmer
Mixed - depends on inflation read
Softer growth/GDP miss
↓ Yields fall
↓ Softer
Risk off if stagflation narrative builds
Labour: Payrolls and employment
February's jobs report was, depending on how you read it, either a blip or a warning sign. Non-farm payrolls (NFP) fell by 92,000, unemployment edged up to 4.4% and the official line was that weather played a role. That may be true but here is what also happened. The labour market suddenly looked a little less convincing as the main argument for keeping rates elevated.
The 3 April employment report for March is now genuinely consequential. A bounce back to positive payroll growth would probably steady nerves and a second consecutive soft print, particularly against a backdrop of higher energy prices, would start to build a very uncomfortable narrative for the Fed. It would be looking at slower jobs growth and an inflation threat at the same time. That is not a comfortable place to be.
Key dates (AEST)
3
Apr
March employment situation (NFP and unemployment rate)
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEDT
High
30
Apr
Q1 employment cost index
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEST
Medium
What markets look for
A return to positive payroll growth, or confirmation that February's softness was the start of a trend
Stabilisation or further movement in the unemployment rate from 4.4%
Average hourly earnings growth relative to core inflation — the wage-price dynamic the Fed watches closely
Weekly initial jobless claims as a real-time signal of whether layoff activity is rising
Inflation: CPI, PPI and PCE
Here is the uncomfortable truth about where inflation sits right now. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred gauge, was already running at 3.1% year on year in January, before any oil shock had fed through. The Fed had not fully solved its inflation problem, rather, it had slowed it down. That is a different thing.
And now, on top of a not-quite-solved inflation problem, oil prices have moved sharply higher. Energy prices can feed into the consumer price index (CPI) relatively quickly, through petrol, transport and logistics costs that can eventually show up in the price of nearly everything. The 10 April CPI print for March is probably the most important single data release of the month, it is the one that may tell us whether the energy shock is already showing up in the numbers the Fed watches.
Key dates (AEST)
10
Apr
Consumer price index (CPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEST
High
14
Apr
Producer price index (PPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10:30 pm AEST
Medium
30
Apr
Personal income and outlays incl. PCE price index — March
Bureau of Economic Analysis · 10:30 pm AEST
High
What markets look for
Monthly CPI acceleration driven by energy and shelter components — the two stickiest inputs
PPI as a forward-looking signal: producer cost pressure tends to feed into consumer prices with a lag
PCE trends relative to the Fed's 2% target, particularly the core reading that strips out food and energy
Any sign that AI-related pricing power is feeding into corporate margins in ways that sustain elevated core readings
How this data may move markets
Scenario
Treasuries
USD
Gold
Cooling core inflation
↓ Yields fall
↓ Softer
↑ Supportive
Sticky or rising inflation
↑ Yields rise
↑ Firmer
↓ Headwind
Policy, trade and earnings
April is also the start of US earnings season, and this quarter's results carry an unusual amount of weight. Investors have been pouring capital into AI infrastructure on the basis that returns are coming. The question is when. With geopolitical volatility driving a rotation away from growth-oriented technology and towards energy and defence, JPMorgan Chase's 14 April earnings will be read as much for what management says about the macro environment as for the numbers themselves.
Then there is the FOMC meeting on 28 and 29 April. After the early-April run of data, including NFP, CPI and producer price index (PPI), the Fed will have more than enough information to update its language. Whether it signals that rate cuts could remain on hold through 2026, or whether it leaves the door slightly ajar, may be the most consequential communication of the quarter.
Geopolitical volatility has already pushed investors to reassess growth-heavy positioning. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is also coming under heavier scrutiny on return on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.
Monitor this month (AEST)
◆
14 April - JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings
The first major bank to report. Management commentary on credit conditions, consumer spending, and the macro outlook will set the tone for financial sector earnings and broader market sentiment.
◆
15 April - Bank of America Q1 earnings
A read on consumer credit conditions and household financial health, particularly relevant given rising energy costs and the 4.4% unemployment rate.
◆
28-29 April - FOMC meeting and policy statement
The month's most consequential event. The statement and any updated forward guidance may effectively confirm whether rate cuts remain a possibility for 2026.
◆
Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic
A live indicator of energy supply risk. Any escalation or resolution carries immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's options.
◆
Ongoing - Sovereign AI export restrictions
Developing policy around technology export curbs may affect capital expenditure plans for US technology firms, with knock-on implications for growth and employment in the sector.
The Bigger Picture
Geopolitical volatility has forced a rotation into energy and defence at the expense of growth oriented technology positions. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being scrutinised for returns on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.
The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
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The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Source: US Energy Information Administration, dated June 17, 2025, using 2024 daily average
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
🌋 Trump, volatility and Hormuz.
As tariff shocks collide with a ten year extreme in oil positioning, the margin for error is zero. See the technical markers and safe haven pivots defining the current risk environment.
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
GO Markets — Idle Tankers: Days of Cover
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
6.75 daysof Hormuz throughput covered
6.75 days
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
1.3 daysof world demand covered
1.3 days
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135 daysof full SPR release pace covered
135 days — but SPR exists to replace this role
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Indicative market trajectories based on disruption severity
Scenarios for the weeks ahead
1–2 WEEKS
Ceasefire catch-up
Markets face catch-up repricing. Brent could consolidate in the US$105–US$115 range as risk premia unwind. Brent may trade lower (US$95–US$110) if strategic stocks bridge the temporary shortfall.
2–4 WEEKS
Infrastructure blitz
Shifts to structural supply shock. Brent moving toward US$150–US$200 cannot be ruled out. This is the stagflation trigger where energy costs constrain central bank flexibility.
STRUCTURAL
Geopolitical floor
Iran's transit fee demand creates a permanent input cost. The pre-crisis price structure (US$60–US$70) may not return, embedded in insurance and freight rates.
Critical Threshold
US$120 remains the level at which energy inflation becomes a direct Federal Reserve policy problem.
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
🛢️ Brent hits $100.
Exxon and SLB are leading the rotation out of tech. Get the price targets and technical support levels for the top 5 energy majors.
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
Market Opportunity
Don't just watch the squeeze. Trade the framework.
As positioning gaps hit decade extremes, access advanced charting tools and real time execution on the six key markets defining this cycle.
A headline about a civilisation "dying tonight" is built to overwhelm, but the more telling signal may be the calm underneath it, because markets are starting to treat this cycle of sharp escalation followed by sudden de-escalation as a pattern, not a surprise.
In macro circles, that pattern has a blunt label: TACO, or "Trump Always Chickens Out". The phrase is loaded, but the logic is simple. A maximum-pressure threat hits, risk assets wobble, then a pause, delay or softer outcome appears once the economic cost starts to bite.
That does not mean the risk is small. It may just mean investors have grown used to a script where rhetoric flares, markets absorb the shock, and restraint shows up before the worst-case scenario fully lands.
Developing situation
|
Strait of Hormuz | Section 122 Tariffs
PublishedApril 2026
Brent CrudeAbove US$100
VIX31
In focus6 markets
Oil PositioningDecade-low longs
The Framework & MechanismIs the market the red line?
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This is where the TACO idea starts to matter. Traders are not just watching the rhetoric. They are watching when it starts to hit markets, inflation and the wider economy.
Oil is at the centre of that risk. If disruption around the Strait of Hormuz starts to threaten global energy flows, the story quickly becomes macro. Higher oil can lift inflation expectations, pressure central banks and tighten financial conditions.
That is why a pause can look less like diplomacy and more like pressure relief. The real red line may be the point where the economic damage becomes too obvious to ignore.
Short Squeezed
Positioning adds another layer. Oil still looks under-owned, with futures positioning near decade-long bearish extremes. If a fresh shock lands, short-covering could drive prices higher much faster than fundamentals alone would suggest.
That is the short-squeeze risk. In the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, recent data suggests oil long exposure is relatively low by historical standards.
Humanitarian Reality
Whatever may be promised in political messaging, any sustained conflict in Iran would carry a heavy cost in displacement, infrastructure damage and wider regional stress. A relief rally in markets does not change that.
Global Isolation
Even if pauses are used to steady domestic market sentiment, allies and multilateral institutions may view bluff-and-retreat tactics as a credibility problem that creates longer-term diplomatic friction.
Positioning gap indicator
Divergence analysis between positioning and risk environment
APRIL 2026
Bars show GO Markets’ internal estimate of the divergence between current futures positioning and levels seen in comparable historical shock environments.
Brent crudeExtreme
Gold (XAU/USD)Very high
Nasdaq 100High
USD/CNHHigh
US 10 yr yieldMedium
USD/CADMedium
Extreme decade scale positioning extreme
High significant divergence
Medium moderate divergence
Methodology note
The Positioning Gap Indicator is based on GO Markets’ internal analysis and is intended as a high-level, illustrative framework only. It uses a combination of market positioning data, historical comparisons and discretionary assumptions about how similar energy and trade shocks have affected markets in the past. The ‘Extreme’, ‘Very High’, ‘High’ and ‘Medium’ labels are relative internal classifications, not objective market standards, and should not be relied on as predictions, forecasts or a guarantee of future outcomes.
The Six Markets
The six markets that matter most
Each of these six markets is exposed to the current situation through a different mechanism. Understanding the mechanism, not just the price, matters. It helps explain whether a move is a headline reaction or the start of something broader. Tap any card to expand the full analysis.
01
BRENT
Brent crude oil
ENERGYDIRECT CHANNELSQUEEZE RISK: EXTREME
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The Clear Transmission Channel
Brent is the international benchmark for crude and the most direct transmission mechanism in this geopolitical thesis. Any disruption to physical flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, forces an immediate tightening of global energy supply.
The Positioning Backdrop
Futures positioning currently sits at a ten year bearish extreme. Leveraged funds have cut long exposure heavily. In the event of a physical supply shock, this imbalance creates the potential for a violent short covering squeeze.
● Bull Case
Hormuz disruption extends beyond four weeks. Extended disruption could lift Brent sharply if supply flows are impaired for longer.
● Bear Case
Diplomatic intervention reopens the strait quickly. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases and increased spare capacity cap any price rally.
Strategic Marker
US$120: the point at which energy inflation becomes a direct Federal Reserve policy problem, rather than just a market narrative.
02
XAU/USD
Gold
SAFE HAVENUNDER-OWNEDSQUEEZE RISK: VERY HIGH
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The Counter-Intuitive Setup
Despite a clear geopolitical risk profile, leveraged funds have been reducing bullish gold exposure. This leaves the market under-owned at the exact moment the fundamental case for safe haven assets is strengthening.
The Inflation Variable
The critical factor for Gold is whether energy-driven inflation limits the Fed's room to maneuver. If policy flexibility weakens, Gold could catch up quickly as a hedge against stagflation.
● Bull Case
Real yields fall as energy inflation outpaces rate hikes. Under-owned positioning amplifies the catch up move as institutional funds rebuild exposure.
● Bear Case
Geopolitical tensions ease rapidly. The Fed remains credibly focused on inflation, keeping real yields positive and supporting the USD over Gold.
Strategic Marker
One level to monitor is prior resistance, alongside any change in COT positioning.
03
US100/NAS100
Nasdaq 100
TECHNOLOGYDUAL PRESSURERATE AND SUPPLY RISK
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Why it is a complicated position
The Nasdaq faces immediate pressure from two fronts: Stickier energy-driven inflation forces rates higher for longer, compressing multiples, while trade tensions unsettle the supply chains beneath major tech names.
Why the 10 year yield matters here
When the 10 year Treasury yield holds above 4.5%, the future value of technology earnings must be discounted at a higher rate. AI linked earnings momentum must overpower this valuation headwind.
● Bull Case
Earnings season delivers proof of AI investment generating real revenue. Index components successfully insulate supply chains, and AI capex momentum overrides the macro headwind.
● Bear Case
Energy inflation keeps yields above 4.5%. Multiple compression in high valuation names triggers a broader index decline amid disappointments in AI monetization.
Strategic Marker
S&P 500 at 6,498: a widely watched Fibonacci cluster. A sustained move below this threshold highlights a historically challenging framework for growth equities.
04
USD/CNH
US dollar/offshore Chinese yuan
FXBEIJING READPOLICY PROXY
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What it tells you
USD/CNH is the cleanest real time read on how Beijing is responding to tariff pressure. A sharp rise suggests China is allowing currency weakness to absorb the costs of trade friction.
Why it matters beyond China
A move in USD/CNH doesn't stay contained. It spills into Asian equities, commodity demand, and broader risk appetite. Deliberate depreciation signals a shift in the global trade environment.
● USD Bull / Yuan Bear
Beijing allows yuan weakness as a deliberate countermeasure. Capital outflows accelerate, and USD safe haven demand reinforces the move.
● Yuan Recovery
Trade negotiations begin and a face saving off ramp is found. PBOC intervention defends the yuan, and the dollar's safe haven premium fades.
Strategic Marker
7.30 on USD/CNH: a sustained move above this has historically been associated with broader risk off moves in Asian markets.
05
US10Y/TNOTE
US 10 year Treasury yield
RATESMACRO PLUMBINGSHAPES EVERYTHING ELSE
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Why it sits under everything
The 10 year yield shapes mortgage costs, corporate borrowing, and the valuation framework for risk assets globally. When it rises, borrowing becomes more expensive across the entire system.
The Independent Movement Risk
If oil forces the Fed to delay cuts, the 10 year yield could rise regardless of Fed communication. It can tighten financial conditions even before a formal policy shift occurs.
● Rates Fall Case
Oil shock proves transient. Fed maintains guidance and 10 year yields pull back toward 4.0%, relieving pressure on equities and providing support for bonds.
● Rates Rise Case
Sustained oil above US$100 pushes inflation higher. Fed pauses rate cut language and the 10 year yield breaks above 4.5%, compressing equity multiples.
Strategic Marker
4.5% on the 10 year yield: a sustained break above this while oil remains above US$100 is a historically challenging combination for equities.
06
USD/CAD
US dollar/offshore Canadian dollar
FXOIL-LINKEDLEAD INDICATOR
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The Double Exposure
USD/CAD is a lead indicator because Canada sits at the intersection of energy and trade. It benefits from higher oil revenue but is highly sensitive to US economic and trade conditions.
When the Forces Collide
When oil rises, the CAD often strengthens; when trade stress rises, it weakens. In the current environment, these forces are colliding rather than canceling each other out.
● CAD Strengthens
Oil sustained above US$100 boosts export revenue while trade tensions stay short of Canada specific tariffs. Bank of Canada holds rates steady.
● CAD Weakens
Safe haven USD demand outweighs the oil benefit. Bank of Canada cuts rates to offset trade headwinds.
Strategic Marker
1.42 on USD/CAD: a sustained move above this signals trade anxiety is dominating the oil benefit, often preceding broader risk off moves.
What could go wrong
Four reasons the market logic could fail
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A coherent macro case is still only a case. Markets regularly ignore tidy narratives for longer than expected, or invalidate them quickly. Four failure paths stand out.
1
The situation de-escalates faster than the news cycle suggests
Geopolitical risk premia can build slowly and disappear quickly. Any credible sign of de-escalation, especially around shipping lanes or energy infrastructure, could reverse oil sharply and drain urgency from the rest of the thesis. This is precisely the scenario the TACO framework predicts.
2
Tariff posturing does not become tariff policy
The market may be reacting to opening positions rather than settled policy. If Washington and Beijing find a face-saving off-ramp, as they have in previous trade disputes, currency and equity moves that anticipated escalation could unwind just as fast as they built.
3
AI investment spending overrides the macro headwind
Technology capital expenditure has remained more resilient than expected for much of the past two years. If earnings season shows that AI infrastructure spending is still translating into real demand and returns, the growth narrative may reassert itself, particularly in the Nasdaq 100.
4
The squeeze never arrives: extended positioning holds for longer than expected
Stretched positioning does not automatically produce a violent reprice. Markets can stay under-owned for months if risk appetite remains weak and institutions are unwilling to rebuild exposure. The set-up can exist without the catalyst arriving in a way that forces the move.
Forward Calendar
What to watch and when
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Three time horizons matter here. The first tests supply resilience. The second tests financial system health. The third tests whether any shift in market leadership is cyclical or structural.
Three horizon watchlist
Signals and catalysts across the next two months
Next Two Weeks
Chipmaker guidance and supply commentary
Major semiconductor earnings calls will offer an early read on whether supply bottlenecks are worsening and whether management teams are changing production assumptions. If supply commentary deteriorates, the inflation story gets another push and the case for higher for longer rates strengthens.
Next 30 Days
Bank earnings and loan demand
Major US banks will provide a useful check on whether capital spending related to AI infrastructure is still being financed. The most important signal may not be earnings per share. It may be commercial loan demand. If businesses are pulling back on borrowing, the growth cycle may be softening earlier than the market expects.
Next 60 Days
Enablers versus spenders
The more structural test is whether the market begins rewarding businesses that produce physical outputs: energy producers, hardware makers and defence contractors, while penalising software companies that still cannot prove a clear return on AI spending. A wider performance gap between those groups would suggest something deeper than a temporary rotation.
The path ahead
The current convergence of geopolitical tension and historical positioning extremes has created a unique "coiled spring" environment for global markets. While the TACO framework suggests a pattern of sharp escalation followed by strategic pauses, the real test for traders over the next 60 days will be the transition from headline-driven volatility to structural market rotation.
Whether the positioning gap closes through a gentle de-escalation or a violent short squeeze, having a defined reaction framework can help traders navigate the noise.
Market Opportunity
Don't just watch the squeeze. Trade the framework.
As positioning gaps hit decade extremes, access advanced charting tools and real time execution on the six key markets defining this cycle.
So here is the thing: April’s US earnings season is arriving in a market that still feels anything but normal. As GO Markets explains in The global US earnings playbook: The essential guide for traders, this reporting period is landing after a real shift in what markets care about. It is no longer just about chasing growth at any cost. It is about what the numbers are saying beneath the surface.
And in 2026, those signals are colliding with a high-friction backdrop:
Geopolitical conflict: Ongoing tension in the Middle East
Oil supply shock: Brent crude above US$100
The Fed: A central bank still boxed in by sticky inflation
The durability pivot
Yes, AI is still the market’s main story but it's still the flashy engine getting most of the attention. But underneath that, there is a quieter move towards companies that look built to hold up better when conditions get harder.
When rates are uncertain and energy markets are under pressure, names like JPMorgan Chase and the major defence contractors start to carry more weight. They are not replacing the AI narrative, rather, they are becoming part of the way traders read risk appetite, earnings durability and, ultimately, where the market is looking for something more solid to hold on to.
!
Important: Reporting schedules can change without notice. Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are from third-party market consensus sources, as of 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are from the latest company filings or results presentations unless stated otherwise. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
$JPM| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
NYSE | Financial Services | 14 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$5.42
Consensus Revenue
US$47.88bn
AU/ASIA14 Apr | 8:45 pm
US/LATAM14 Apr | 6:45 am
Market Intelligence: $JPM
Analysis: JPM price drivers and scenarios
NII guidance
~US$103 billion
Full year | US$95 billionn ex:markets
ROTCE target
17%
Possible return on tangible common equity
Analyst range
US$5.02-5.70
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW US$5.02AVG US$5.39HIGH US$5.70
The analyst spread of US$0.68 signals genuine disagreement about how the rate environment is flowing through to margins. A result above consensus but below the high end estimate may produce a muted reaction. A result above US$5.70 may shift the discussion.
Key swing factors for the result
Net interest income (NII)
The clearest macro lever. It reflects the gap between lending rates and deposit costs.
Guidance: US$103 billion for the full year
Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE)
A scale check. It indicates whether JPM is converting scale into efficiency. 17% is the benchmark.
Target: 17% ROTCE
Trading and investment banking
Strong Q1 growth was expected in fees and markets revenue. These lines can offset softness in lending, and stronger-than-expected performance here may shift the narrative away from rate sensitivity.
Watch: investment banking (IB) fees versus the prior quarter
Expense discipline
A bank can beat the EPS estimate and still sell off if expense growth is running too hot. Pairing the EPS result with the expense trajectory gives a fuller read on whether the beat is durable.
Watch: Expense outlook commentary
Trade Execution: $JPM
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$5.70, NII on track | ROTCE at or above 17%
The result comes in above the top of the analyst range. NII guidance holds or is revised higher. IB fees and markets revenue show strong Q1 growth. Expense commentary is constructive.
Possible reaction: momentum and repositioning
Base case
EPS between US$5.39 and US$5.70, NII in line | ROTCE near target
The result beats consensus but stays within the expected range. NII tracks guidance. The tone of the conference call may matter more than the headline number. The first move may fade if guidance is unchanged.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
Bear case
EPS below US$5.39 | NII misses | Expense growth surprises
The result comes in at or below the consensus midpoint. NII guidance is cut or qualified. Expense growth comes in above market expectations. IB or markets revenue disappoints.
Possible reaction: earnings multiple repricing
Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.
Sentiment Analysis · JPMorgan Chase
Interactive scenario analysis: $JPM
Select earnings outcome
Growth momentum
AI-linked offset, beat supported by NII and ROTCE
Stronger-than-expected demand for AI-related industrial lending may offset softer mortgage activity. Management maintains guidance as NII remains resilient in higher-for-longer conditions. IB fees and markets revenue may provide additional support. ROTCE at or above 17% would suggest the bank is converting scale into earnings efficiently.
EPS Outcome
Above US$5.70
NII Signal
On track
ROTCE
At or above 17%
Likely Reaction
Momentum may build
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
From credit to defence
If JPMorgan gives the market an early read on the consumer, credit quality and business activity, the defence names may be telling a different story. This is the point where the focus may start to shift from the credit cycle to government-backed demand.
In a market still shaped by geopolitical risk, that matters. Long-dated programs can help support revenue visibility, even when the broader outlook looks less certain. That is one reason the sector remains on the watchlist.
$LMT| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Lockheed Martin Corp.
NYSE | Aerospace | Defense | 22 Apr 2026
Estimated
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.50
Consensus Revenue
US$16.32bn
AU | ASIA22 Apr | 9:20 pm
US | LATAM22 Apr | 7:20 am
Market Intelligence: $LMT
Analysis: LMT price drivers and scenarios
Order backlog
US$194 billionn
Record visibility
Book-to-bill
1.2x
Orders outpacing sales
Analyst range
US$6.90-7.10
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90AVG ~US$6.94HIGH US$7.10+
The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That positioning may leave room for upside if backlog growth and F-35 delivery timelines support execution. A print near the high end, above US$7.10, may extend the move, although the reaction would still depend on guidance and margins.
Key swing factors for the result
Backlog visibility
Primary evidence of demand. Book-to-bill above 1.2x would support full-year guidance and the production ramp.
Backlog: US$194 billion record
Free cash flow (FCF)
Defence stocks are often assessed on cash conversion. The market may look for confirmation of the US$6.5 billion floor.
Guide: US$6.5 billion - $6.8 billion
Missile segment growth
PrSM and THAAD deliveries remain key watchpoints. Strong space margins may help offset softness in aeronautics.
Watch: Fire Control margins
Margin pressure
Pension charges and production inflation remain risks. An earnings beat may fade if operating margins contract.
The result clears the upper half of the analyst range. Management reaffirms or raises the full-year FCF outlook. Strong Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) margins help offset any aeronautics supply chain lag.
Possible reaction: momentum may build and positioning may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.30 and US$6.70 | Backlog steady at about US$194 billion
The result aligns with the US$6.38 consensus. F-35 delivery pace remains on track but offers no meaningful upside surprise. The market may wait for more specific segment guidance on the conference call.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
The result falls towards the bottom of the analyst spread. Management cites further software delays or program losses. The FCF trajectory narrows towards the lower end of previous expectations.
Possible reaction: the share price may come under pressure
Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.
Sentiment Analysis · Lockheed Martin
Interactive scenario analysis: $LMT
Select earnings outcome
Backlog confirmed
Backlog and FCF confirmation may support continuation
EPS clears the top of the analyst range. Backlog holds at or above US$194 billion and book-to-bill stays above 1.2, which would suggest orders are replenishing faster than revenue is being recognised. FCF guidance holds within the stated range.
EPS outcome
Above US$7.00
Backlog signal
Above US$194 billion
FCF guide
Holds or improves
Likely reaction
Continuation may follow
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Not all defence names are the same
Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman may sit in the same defence bucket, but the market does not always read them the same way. Lockheed is more closely tied to the F-35 and current air combat demand. Northrop is more closely linked to next-generation programs such as the B-21 Raider and Sentinel.
That gives this section its contrast. One is often read through the lens of current defence demand. The other is more closely tied to longer-cycle strategic modernisation.
$NOC| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Northrop Grumman Corp.
NYSE | Defense | Space Systems | 23 Apr 2026
Estimated
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.12
Consensus Revenue
US$10.24 billion
AU | ASIA23 Apr | 10:30 pm
US | LATAM23 Apr | 8:30 am
Market Intelligence: $NOC
Analysis: NOC price drivers and scenarios
Consensus EPS
US$6.96
Quarterly analyst average
Order Backlog
US$95.7 billion
Record revenue visibility
FY 2026 EPS guide
US$27.40-US$27.90
Full-year 2026 outlook
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90AVG ~US$6.96HIGH US$7.20+
The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That offers a quick visual for whether the result is merely in line or strong enough to ease the guidance concerns that weighed on the stock after its last update. A result above US$7.20 may shift the conversation more materially.
Key swing factors for the result
Book-to-bill ratio
Currently at 1.10, suggesting orders are still running ahead of revenue recognition. This remains an important signal for multi-year growth visibility in defence.
Watch: 1.10 target
Guidance reset risk
Management’s guidance previously came in below market expectations. The market may be sensitive to any further softening in the 2026 outlook.
Watch: guidance commentary
Program concentration
The B-21 Raider and Sentinel carry outsized execution sensitivity. Updates on production ramp and funding may be the clearest drivers of sentiment for the stock.
Watch: B-21 and Sentinel updates
Capacity investment
Higher capital expenditure (capex) supports the industrial base over the longer term, but it may pressure near-term margins. Watch for signs that current investment is weighing on earnings power.
The result comes in above the cited threshold. Management says B-21 Raider production is ahead of schedule, with improving margins. Sentinel program restructuring costs remain below baseline expectations. International awards lift the book-to-bill ratio above 1.15.
Possible reaction: momentum may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.00 and US$6.20, backlog steady at about US$95.7 billion
The result is broadly in line with the cited range. FCF targets for 2026 are reaffirmed but not expanded. Market focus shifts to organic sales growth metrics and segment operating margins. The initial reaction may depend on the timing of B-21 milestone payments.
The result lands near the low end of the analyst spread. Management flags higher infrastructure costs for Sentinel or delays in restricted space segment awards. Margin pressure in Aeronautics persists, and the 2026 revenue guide narrows towards the US$43.5 billion floor.
Possible reaction: shares may weaken
Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.
Sentiment Analysis · Northrop Grumman
Interactive scenario analysis: $NOC
Select earnings outcome
Stealth momentum
B-21 momentum, stronger execution and FCF support
EPS clears US$6.15. Management confirms a production capacity agreement for the B-21 Raider. Sentinel restructuring reaches Milestone B on schedule. Record backlog visibility and higher FCF guidance towards US$3.5 billion may support broader repositioning.
EPS outcome
Above US$6.15
B-21 Signal
Acceleration
FCF guide
$3.5 billionn range
Likely reaction
Momentum rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Bottom line
In a market shaped by geopolitical risk and shifting rate expectations, companies with visible demand and longer-cycle revenue may continue to attract attention. But sentiment can still turn quickly if valuations are stretched, rate expectations shift again, or tensions in the Middle East ease.
That is why the story still needs to be tested against the numbers, not just the narrative. GO Markets will be analysing more companies throughout this earnings season. For more updates, visit our
earnings page,
follow our social media channels, or check the weekly newsletters.
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