Six common trading mistakes during the Olympics (and how to avoid them)
Mike Smith
10/2/2026
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The Olympic and Winter Olympic Games capture global attention for weeks, drawing millions of viewers and dominating headlines. For traders, this attention often feels like a catalyst, yet the real market drivers remain the same: macroeconomics, policy, and global risk sentiment, not the sporting calendar.
So why do some traders say results feel weaker during major sporting events?
Often it comes down to a failure to adapt to conditions that can shift at the margin, particularly liquidity and participation.
1. Expecting “event volatility”
A major global event can create an assumption that markets should move more. Some traders position for breakouts or increase risk in anticipation of bigger swings, even when conditions don’t support it.
Key drivers
In some markets and sessions, reduced participation can weaken trend follow-through
Sentiment can inflate expectations beyond what price action delivers
Example: A trader expects a breakout during the Olympic opening ceremony period, but low regional participation limits price movement, leading to false starts.
2. Forcing trades in quiet sessions
When price action is slower and ranges compress, some traders feel pressure to stay active and take lower-quality entries.
Key drivers
Narrow intraday ranges can increase false signals
Lower conviction can favour consolidation over trend, raising false-break risk
“Staying engaged” can reduce selectivity
Takeaway: Use quieter sessions to refine setups or review data rather than forcing marginal trades.
3. Ignoring thinner liquidity
Participation can ease slightly during major global events, and the impact is often more pronounced on shorter timeframes. Daily charts may look normal, while intraday price action becomes choppier with more wicks.
Key drivers
In lower-depth conditions, price can jump more easily, and wick size can increase
In some instruments and sessions, thinner liquidity can coincide with wider spreads and more variable execution (varies by market, venue and broker conditions)
Timeframe sensitivity to thinner conditions
The above table is illustrative only (varies by market): Daily charts may look normal. Five-minute charts can feel more erratic.
Low volume big wicks example
Source: MT5
4. Using normal size in abnormal conditions
Even if overall volatility looks stable, execution risk can rise when liquidity thins, especially for short-term or scalping-style approaches.
Key drivers
Slippage can increase, and stops may “overshoot”
Thin conditions can trigger stops more easily in noise
Wider spreads can shift entry/exit outcomes versus normal conditions
Adjustment: Maintaining fixed sizing may distort effective risk. Some traders review transaction costs, including spreads, and execution conditions when setting risk parameters such as stops/limits, particularly in thinner sessions.
5. Trading breakouts with low follow-through
Trend-following tactics can falter when participation declines. Momentum may dissipate quickly, and false breaks become more common.
Key drivers
Reduced flow can limit sustained directional moves
Some low-liquidity regimes may favour mean reversion over momentum
Example: A classic range breakout appears valid intraday but fades rapidly as follow-through volume fails to materialise.
Failed breakout example
Source: MT5
6. Overlooking timing and distraction risk
There is no reliable evidence that the Olympic calendar predictably drives geopolitical events. But when tensions are already elevated, major global events can sometimes coincide with attention being spread elsewhere, somewhat similar to holidays, elections or major summits.
Traders should identify when conditions are slower or thinner and adjust accordingly, aligning tactics with reduced follow-through risk and calibrating position sizes to execution reality. Most importantly, avoid forcing trades when edge is limited during these periods.
Upcming economic events
By
Mike Smith
Mike Smith (MSc, PGdipEd)
Client Education and Training
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. If the advice relates to acquiring a particular financial product, you should obtain our Disclosure Statement (DS) and other legal documents available on our website for that product before making any decisions.
The Olympic and Winter Olympic Games capture global attention for weeks, drawing millions of viewers and dominating headlines. For traders, this attention often feels like a catalyst, yet the real market drivers remain the same: macroeconomics, policy, and global risk sentiment, not the sporting calendar.
So why do some traders say results feel weaker during major sporting events?
Often it comes down to a failure to adapt to conditions that can shift at the margin, particularly liquidity and participation.
1. Expecting “event volatility”
A major global event can create an assumption that markets should move more. Some traders position for breakouts or increase risk in anticipation of bigger swings, even when conditions don’t support it.
Key drivers
In some markets and sessions, reduced participation can weaken trend follow-through
Sentiment can inflate expectations beyond what price action delivers
Example: A trader expects a breakout during the Olympic opening ceremony period, but low regional participation limits price movement, leading to false starts.
2. Forcing trades in quiet sessions
When price action is slower and ranges compress, some traders feel pressure to stay active and take lower-quality entries.
Key drivers
Narrow intraday ranges can increase false signals
Lower conviction can favour consolidation over trend, raising false-break risk
“Staying engaged” can reduce selectivity
Takeaway: Use quieter sessions to refine setups or review data rather than forcing marginal trades.
3. Ignoring thinner liquidity
Participation can ease slightly during major global events, and the impact is often more pronounced on shorter timeframes. Daily charts may look normal, while intraday price action becomes choppier with more wicks.
Key drivers
In lower-depth conditions, price can jump more easily, and wick size can increase
In some instruments and sessions, thinner liquidity can coincide with wider spreads and more variable execution (varies by market, venue and broker conditions)
Timeframe sensitivity to thinner conditions
The above table is illustrative only (varies by market): Daily charts may look normal. Five-minute charts can feel more erratic.
Low volume big wicks example
Source: MT5
4. Using normal size in abnormal conditions
Even if overall volatility looks stable, execution risk can rise when liquidity thins, especially for short-term or scalping-style approaches.
Key drivers
Slippage can increase, and stops may “overshoot”
Thin conditions can trigger stops more easily in noise
Wider spreads can shift entry/exit outcomes versus normal conditions
Adjustment: Maintaining fixed sizing may distort effective risk. Some traders review transaction costs, including spreads, and execution conditions when setting risk parameters such as stops/limits, particularly in thinner sessions.
5. Trading breakouts with low follow-through
Trend-following tactics can falter when participation declines. Momentum may dissipate quickly, and false breaks become more common.
Key drivers
Reduced flow can limit sustained directional moves
Some low-liquidity regimes may favour mean reversion over momentum
Example: A classic range breakout appears valid intraday but fades rapidly as follow-through volume fails to materialise.
Failed breakout example
Source: MT5
6. Overlooking timing and distraction risk
There is no reliable evidence that the Olympic calendar predictably drives geopolitical events. But when tensions are already elevated, major global events can sometimes coincide with attention being spread elsewhere, somewhat similar to holidays, elections or major summits.
Traders should identify when conditions are slower or thinner and adjust accordingly, aligning tactics with reduced follow-through risk and calibrating position sizes to execution reality. Most importantly, avoid forcing trades when edge is limited during these periods.
The decision to scale (increase the traded lot size of a specific EA) should be based on statistical evidence that indicates your EA has the potential to perform to certain expectations.
Equal weight should be given to the decision to scale, as to the initial decision to deploy an EA. This guide provides an indicative approach on how to put together and action your scaling plan.
Before You Start Your Scaling Plan
Important: this should be an individual plan that is consistent with your personal trading objectives, your EA portfolio, and your personal financial situation (including account size).
We are going to use a starting lot of 0.10 per trade in the examples in this document —you want to adjust this based on your own risk tolerance.
Whatever your chosen lot size start point, EA scaling should be a pre-planned incremental approach, scaling stepwise based on performance metrics you are seeing in your live trading account.
You should also have assessed the current margin usage of your EA portfolio exposure to ensure that any scaling and related increased margin requirements are appropriate to the size of your account.
Suggested Scaling Baseline Requirements
Scaling should only be performed when your EA is performing to what you deem to be a good standard. To make this judgment, you need to set some minimum performance standards.
The past performance of your EA is not a guarantee of future performance. If market conditions change, you must remain vigilant and continue to measure performance on an ongoing basis for every live EA you have.
You need to define the key metrics that are important to you.
Two important metrics to include are:
The number of trades: to provide some evidence of reliability
The period of time: to have had exposure to at least some variation in market conditions
Example of how you may lay your metrics out in a table:
Table 1 – Sample scaling metrics
Some may choose to include proximity to original expectations of other metrics, such as minimum win rate, average profit in winning trades, and average loss in those that go against you.
It should only be after your metrics are met that lot scaling begins on any specific EA.
Lot Size Scaling Ladder
Below is an example of a performance-based scaling plan assuming a 0.10-lot baseline.
Again, this is indicative. It provides a framework with clear review dates and an approach that illustrates incremental scaling. You must still define a regime that is right for your specific trading objectives.
Table 2 – Review planning
Risk Guardrails
It is vital to keep an eye on your general account risks and have limits in place that guide your EA use.
Such limits must be constant across all stages of scaling and referenced beyond the risk of a single EA, but to your portfolio as a whole.:
Per-Trade Risk (Nominal)
Trade risk for any one trade should be seen in the context of account size and the dollar risk based on the risk parameters you have set for your EA.
Specify a maximum percentage of the account balance — a $200 loss is more impactful on a $1000 account compared to a $10,000 account.
Stick to what is right for you in terms ofyour tolerable risk level based on your trading objectives and financial situation. A common suggestion is a 1-2% risk of account equity per trade.
Total Open Exposure
Specifying maximum exposure in the number of EAs open at any time and those that use the same asset class is important for overall portfolio risk management.
There are tools you can use to monitor exposure risk generally, as well as those that can be used to indicate single asset exposure.
Margin Usage
It is always desirable that your set exit approaches and parameter levels are what your exits are based on. It should not be because your margin usage has meant you have moved into a margin call situation.
Specify a minimum level to adhere to and make sure that your account is sufficiently funded. If volatility or slippage rises (e.g., news events or illiquid sessions), reduce lot size temporarily.
Scaling Psychology – Managing “Big Numbers”
As lot sizes rise, your emotions may respond accordingly when you see the larger dollar amounts that your EA is generating.
If you are used to seeing an average profit of $100 and average loss of $50, and suddenly you are seeing significantly bigger numbers, it creates an emotional challenge where you may be tempted to do a “discretionary override”.
Although there are situations, such as major market events, overexposure in a specific asset, or VPS or account system problems, where such intervention may be considered, generally this would distort the actual performance evaluation of your EA and is not encouraged (unless it is pre-planned).
The table below presents some of the generally accepted challenges and offers suggestions on how to manage them.
Your Plan Into Action…
In practical terms, your scaling plan should have two components:
The key parameters for action on your chosen key metrics
Specified periodic review times to make your next scaling decision
This is not a race. Having systems in place facilitates creating the opportunity that scaling brings while still mitigating the risks.
There are few trades as appealing, or as risky, as trying to catch a market reversal. The idea of entering at the turning point and riding the new trend is exciting. However, most traders fail to consistently produce good trading outcomes on this potential, often entering too early without confirmation, and thus get caught at a pause point of a continuing powerful move.Trend reversals can indeed offer excellent reward-to-risk potential, but as with any trading approach, only when approached systematically, the confluence of key factors, and timing.
What Is a High-Probability Entry?
Before diving into reversals specifically, let’s define what we mean by a high-probability entry.A high-probability entry is a trade taken in conditions where:
There is clear evidence from price action and structure
There is an alignment with the overall market context, such as timing, favourable price levels, and volatility
Risk can be logically defined and limited to within your tolerable limits
It may offer a favourable risk-to-reward profile (providing you execute following a pre-defined plan)
This approach should underpin all trading strategy development. And be consistently executed according to your defined rules, which must be constantly reviewed and refined based on trading evidence.
Reversal vs. Retracement: Know the Difference
Many traders confuse a retracement with a reversal, often with potentially costly consequences. It is ok to exit on a retracement and be ready to go again if there is a breach of the previous swing high. But this must be part of your plan, with a strategy for trend continuation in place. However, if your plan suggests that you DON’T want to exit on retracements, then the following table gives some guidance on what potential differences may be. RetracementReversalA temporary move against the trendA complete shift in directional controlPrice often continues in original directionPrice begins trending in the opposite directionHealthy part of a trend’s rhythmMarks the end of a trendTypically shallow, to a Fib/MA/structureOften deep, may break previous swing structureVolume often reduced after swing high if long or swing low if short.Volume often increased after swing high if long or visa versa.
Understanding Trend Exhaustion
Before any reversal occurs, the existing trend must show signs of exhaustion. This is the first phase of a potential turning point — and one of the most overlooked.
How Trend Exhaustion Looks on a Chart:
Climactic candles – multiple wide-range bars with expanding bodies.
Failed breakouts – price pushes through a level but fails to hold.
Volume spikes with no follow-through – smart money distributing or exiting.
Multiple tests of the same level – a sign that the trend is running out of energy.
The Anatomy of a High-Probability Reversal
A strong reversal setup typically has three key factors that can be supportive of a of follow-through.
1. Location – Price at a Key Zone
Major support/resistance level honoured
Prior swing highs or lows at a similar price point
Higher timeframe structure – I,e, agreement on a 4 hourly chart as well as an hourly.
In simple terms, if the price isn’t at a meaningful location, a meaningful reversal is less likely to occur.
2. Previous Signs of Trend Exhaustion
We have covered this above, with evidence that the current trend has now weakened, and there is some justification to prepare to enter a counter-trend.
3. Structural Confirmation
This is the trading trigger you are looking for as a potential signal for entry. Structural confirmation transforms an idea (“the price might reverse”) into an actual setup (“the reversal is underway”).Look for the following four signs:
Trendline or key short-term moving average breached
Lower highs and lower lows in an uptrend or higher lows in a downtrend
Confirmation that a key swing point has been honoured
Evidence that a retest and rejection of the broken structure has occurred.
This shows that momentum has not just stalled, it has now shifted.
Context Filters
Reversals are more likely to succeed when conditions are supported by other factors. This is to do with the identification of a strong market context where reversals are more likely to happen. These may include:
Time of day: The open of London or US sessions, or into session close when there may be some profit taking on a previously strong move
Volatility extremes: Price has expanded beyond its normal daily range (ATR-based or visually evidenced on a chart)
Market sentiment: Everyone is already long at the top or short at the bottom — setting up for a squeeze
Catalysts: Reactions to news, or data, that may cause a significant one-sided move
Adding context could make the difference between a technically correct trade and one that may offer a higher probability of going in your desired direction.
Recognising Common Reversal Patterns
There are classic chart patterns that may help visually reinforce the principles. They reflect exhaustion, rejection, and structural change, and may encourage many traders to follow the move, adding extra momentum to any initial move. PatternSignal TypeKey ClueConfirmation NeededDouble Top/BottomReversal StructureRepeated rejection of key levelBreak of swing low/high between peaksHead & ShouldersMomentum FailureFailed retest after strong pushNeckline breakPin BarExhaustion CandleSharp rejection with long wickOpposite-direction close after the pinEngulfingSudden Power ShiftOne candle overtakes previous rangeFollow-through candleRounding Top/BottomSlow Institutional TurnGradual stalling and reversalNeckline break of curveBreak of Structure (BoS)Structural ConfirmationNew higher low/lower high, support breakRetest and failure to reclaim broken level⚠️ These patterns should not be traded in isolation. Use them with context and only after signs of exhaustion and structure shifts.
FOUR Trader Reversal Traps to Avoid
Even with a solid framework, it’s easy to fall into common traps:
Trying to pick the exact top or bottom - Wait for price to prove the turn, don’t anticipate and enter early
Entering against the higher timeframe trend – Zooming out and checking alignment with higher timeframes may be prudent to reduce the likelihood of having to fight momentum on larger timeframes.
Trading every reversal signal - Not all signals are valid or particularly strong. Look for the confluence of multiple factors covered earlier, not just the presence of a pattern.
Letting bias override evidence - Just because you want a reversal to happen, it NEVER means it is there unless backed up by evidence.
Don’t Forget the Full Trading Story
A great setup means nothing without excellent execution. These ESSENTIAL facts are critical as with any trade, but there will never be an apology for reinforcing these.
Patience and execution discipline
Wait for your full criteria to be met. Avoid “almost” setups that feel tempting but don’t fully align with your full plan criteria. Likewise, when all your boxes are ticked, then take action.
Exit strategy
Use a mix of targets, structure-based trails, or scaling out, and know in advance how you’ll manage the trade once it starts moving.High-probability entries are only one part of a winning trade. Exit efficiently or you’ll waste great entry setups because of poor execution. There are many traders in this position; make sure you are not one of them.
Summary
High-probability reversals are not about being right at the top or bottom when you enter; this is rarely possible and adds additional risk without confirmation. They are about recognising and being ready when the trend is potentially changing, and taking action when:
Price is at a key level
The current trend shows clear signs of exhaustion
Structure confirms the shift
And context supports the move
Trade the evidence and your plan, not just what you think is likely to happen. Be patient, be ready, and when the setup is there, execute your trade with confidence.
The Olympic and Winter Olympic Games capture global attention for weeks, drawing millions of viewers and dominating headlines. For traders, this attention often feels like a catalyst, yet the real market drivers remain the same: macroeconomics, policy, and global risk sentiment, not the sporting calendar.
So why do some traders say results feel weaker during major sporting events?
Often it comes down to a failure to adapt to conditions that can shift at the margin, particularly liquidity and participation.
1. Expecting “event volatility”
A major global event can create an assumption that markets should move more. Some traders position for breakouts or increase risk in anticipation of bigger swings, even when conditions don’t support it.
Key drivers
In some markets and sessions, reduced participation can weaken trend follow-through
Sentiment can inflate expectations beyond what price action delivers
Example: A trader expects a breakout during the Olympic opening ceremony period, but low regional participation limits price movement, leading to false starts.
2. Forcing trades in quiet sessions
When price action is slower and ranges compress, some traders feel pressure to stay active and take lower-quality entries.
Key drivers
Narrow intraday ranges can increase false signals
Lower conviction can favour consolidation over trend, raising false-break risk
“Staying engaged” can reduce selectivity
Takeaway: Use quieter sessions to refine setups or review data rather than forcing marginal trades.
3. Ignoring thinner liquidity
Participation can ease slightly during major global events, and the impact is often more pronounced on shorter timeframes. Daily charts may look normal, while intraday price action becomes choppier with more wicks.
Key drivers
In lower-depth conditions, price can jump more easily, and wick size can increase
In some instruments and sessions, thinner liquidity can coincide with wider spreads and more variable execution (varies by market, venue and broker conditions)
Timeframe sensitivity to thinner conditions
The above table is illustrative only (varies by market): Daily charts may look normal. Five-minute charts can feel more erratic.
Low volume big wicks example
Source: MT5
4. Using normal size in abnormal conditions
Even if overall volatility looks stable, execution risk can rise when liquidity thins, especially for short-term or scalping-style approaches.
Key drivers
Slippage can increase, and stops may “overshoot”
Thin conditions can trigger stops more easily in noise
Wider spreads can shift entry/exit outcomes versus normal conditions
Adjustment: Maintaining fixed sizing may distort effective risk. Some traders review transaction costs, including spreads, and execution conditions when setting risk parameters such as stops/limits, particularly in thinner sessions.
5. Trading breakouts with low follow-through
Trend-following tactics can falter when participation declines. Momentum may dissipate quickly, and false breaks become more common.
Key drivers
Reduced flow can limit sustained directional moves
Some low-liquidity regimes may favour mean reversion over momentum
Example: A classic range breakout appears valid intraday but fades rapidly as follow-through volume fails to materialise.
Failed breakout example
Source: MT5
6. Overlooking timing and distraction risk
There is no reliable evidence that the Olympic calendar predictably drives geopolitical events. But when tensions are already elevated, major global events can sometimes coincide with attention being spread elsewhere, somewhat similar to holidays, elections or major summits.
Traders should identify when conditions are slower or thinner and adjust accordingly, aligning tactics with reduced follow-through risk and calibrating position sizes to execution reality. Most importantly, avoid forcing trades when edge is limited during these periods.
The torch is lit in Milan, and public attention has moved from the opening-ceremony theatrics to the competition on the slopes.
But for forex (FX) traders, eyes are still on the euro (EUR) charts. With Italy at the centre of the sporting world, the eurozone economy is facing one of its most-watched moments of the year.
1. The home court advantage (Italy’s economy)
Some estimates suggest the Olympics could deliver roughly a €5.3 billion boost to the Italian economy, driven by direct spending and a longer tourism tail once the flame goes out. In practical terms, that can mean a front-loaded “direct expenditure” phase. Hospitality, retail and transport demand can peak as an estimated 2.5 million spectators move between Milan and the Dolomites.
Checklist task: Watch Italy industrial production (Wednesday, 11 February 2026). While the Games may support services activity, it’s worth tracking whether broader production data is keeping pace or if the Olympic impact is narrowly concentrated in tourism‑linked sectors.
At its 5 February meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) held policy settings steady at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. President Christine Lagarde signalled that while inflation appears to be stabilising, the ECB remains in “wait and see” mode.
Checklist task: Monitor speeches from ECB members this week. Any shift in tone, including a more hawkish tilt that suggests rates may stay higher for longer, could act as a potential tailwind for EUR/USD, especially if it contrasts with a more cautious Federal Reserve tone.
The most prestigious Olympic finals often land in the European evening. For traders, this lines up with the London to New York session overlap (typically 14:00 to 17:00 GMT). That’s when liquidity is deepest in EUR crosses and when positioning can whipsaw around data and headlines.
Checklist task: Expect possible peak liquidity and the potential for “false breakouts” during these hours. If a major US data point (such as Tuesday’s retail sales, or Friday’s CPI) lands while European markets are still open, EUR pairs may see a volatility pickup.
While the euro is the star of the show, the Olympics can still be shadowed by broader geopolitical noise. For example, gold is already trading around the US$5,000 mark after briefly breaking above it in early February, driven by central‑bank buying, expectations of a weaker dollar, and upgraded year‑end forecasts.
Checklist task: If sentiment turns risk-off, watch traditional haven assets such as the Swiss franc (CHF) and gold. Gold has seen large swings recently and is currently testing resistance near US$5,000. EUR/CHF may also see higher volatility if geopolitical headlines intensify during the Games.
The week wraps with the eurozone’s Q4 GDP (second estimate) on Friday, 13 February 2026.
Checklist task: The preliminary estimate showed 0.3% growth. If the figure is revised upward, it may reinforce the eurozone’s resilience and could support a late-week bid in EUR.
While the “Olympic boost” may offer a sentiment cushion for Italy, the euro’s direction is still likely to be shaped by whether the ECB’s “wait and see” stance is challenged by Friday’s GDP update or Wednesday’s industrial production release.
With gold hovering near US$5,000 and the US facing a calendar affected by rescheduled data, volatility could stay elevated into key overlap hours, right as prime-time events are taking place.
Your complete day-by-day guide to Australian medal chances and market-moving moments during the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics.
Quick Facts
Opening Ceremony: 6:00 am, 7 February AEDT (8:00 pm, 6 February Milan).
Prime viewing window: 4:00 am to 2:00 pm AEDT daily coincides with pre-market and ASX trading hours.
Medal ceremonies: Typically run from 6:00 am to 7:00 am AEDT. Perfect for pre-market position adjustments.
53 Australian athletescompeting: The second-largest Australian Winter Olympic team ever, with 10 genuine medal contenders.
GO Markets Olympic Schedule
GO Markets Olympic Schedule
Olympic Schedule
All times shown in AEDT
= Australian competing
🏅 = AUS medal chance
🔥 = Potential volatility
Feb 7
06:00
Opening Ceremony
Live from Milano
🔥
21:30
Men's Downhill Final
Harry Laidlaw
🔥
23:00
Women's 10km+10km Skiathlon
Rosie Fordham, Phoebe Cridland
🔥
Feb 8
05:30
Men's Snowboard Big Air Final
Valentino Guseli
🏅🔥
05:57
Women's NH Individual Final
Global Superstars (Ski Jumping)
🔥
Feb 10
05:30
Women's Snowboard Big Air Final
Tess Coady, Ally Hickman
🏅
Feb 12
00:15
Women’s Moguls Final
Jakara Anthony, Emma Bosco, Charlotte Wilson
🏅🔥
22:15
Men’s Moguls Final
Matt Graham, Jackson Harvey, George Murphy
🏅
Feb 13
00:56
Men's Snowboard Cross Finals
Adam Lambert, Cam Bolton, Jarryd Hughes
🏅
19:30
Women's Snowboard Cross Finals
Josie Baff, Abbey Wilson, Mia Clift
🏅
Feb 14
21:46
Women’s Dual Moguls Final
Jakara Anthony, Charlotte Wilson
🏅
Feb 15
08:42
Short Track (1500m Final)
Brendan Corey
21:46
Men’s Dual Moguls Final
Matt Graham, George Murphy
🏅
Feb 16
23:00
Alpine Skiing (Men's Slalom)
Harry Laidlaw
Feb 17
06:00
Pairs Figure Skating Final
A. Golubeva & H. Giotopoulos Moore
07:06
Women’s Monobob Final
Bree Walker
🏅
Feb 18
21:30
Women’s Aerials Final
Laura Peel, Danielle Scott, Abbey Willcox
🏅
23:30
Women’s Slalom Final
Madison Hoffman, Phoebe Heaydon
Feb 19
21:30
Men’s Aerials Final
Reilly Flanagan
Feb 21
05:30
Men’s Halfpipe Final
Scotty James, Valentino Guseli
🏅🔥
23:30
SkiMo Mixed Relay
Phil Bellingham & Lara Hamilton
Feb 22
05:30
Women’s Freeski Halfpipe Final
Indra Brown
🏅
07:05
Two-Woman Bobsleigh Final
Walker/Reddingius & Blizzard/Johnson
Feb 23
00:10
Men’s Ice Hockey Final
NHL Superstars
🔥
06:00
Closing Ceremony
Live from Milano
🔥
Opening Ceremony + first medals - Saturday, February 7
Opening Ceremony at breakfast time, then the first gold medal awarded in primetime on Saturday.
Harry Laidlaw represents Australia in the Men's Downhill, the Games' first Gold medal event, while cross-country skiers Rosie Fordham and Phoebe Cridland compete late Saturday night.
This same-day pairing of ceremony and first medals creates maximum media saturation, with a full weekend news cycle processing before Monday's ASX open.
Key events
Opening Ceremony: 6:00 am AEDT
Men's Downhill Final (first gold medal of the games): 9:30 pm AEDT
Women's 10km + 10km Skiathlon: 11:00 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC (Nine Entertainment): Double viewership event. Opening Ceremony 6:00 am Saturday, lines up for the peak morning TV audience. First medals at 9:30 pm are a primetime Saturday night.
Italian equities (FTSE MIB): Historically underperform during domestic Olympics. Turin 2006 saw -2.1% during the Games.
STLA (Stellantis): ESG headline risk if environmental groups target the ceremony.
Apparel sponsor arbitrage: If a non-favourite wins Men's Downhill, their sponsor sees average +2.3% pop (PyeongChang 2018, Beijing 2022 data).
First medals continue - Sunday, February 8
The medal rush continues on Sunday as 19-year-old Valentino Guseli takes flight in Men's Snowboard Big Air, offering Australia an early podium chance in one of the Games' most visually spectacular events.
With the ceremony glow still fresh, Guseli's performance sets the tone for Australia's snowboard campaign and could influence Monday's ASX open positioning for action sports stocks.
Key events
Men's Snowboard Big Air Final(Valentino Guseli): 5:30 am AEDT
Women's Normal Hill Individual Final: 5:57 am AEDT
FL (Foot Locker), ZUMZ (Zumiez): Youth retail action sports exposure. Guseli gold could create a temporary buzz.
Monday, February 9
A rare quiet day in Australia's Olympic calendar. No Australian medal events are scheduled, making this a pure observation day for traders.
Monitor how Guseli's weekend result is processed through Monday's ASX open, and position ahead of Tuesday's Coady showdown.
Tuesday, February 10
Tess Coady attempts to upgrade her 2022 bronze to gold in Women's Snowboard Big Air. The Tuesday morning timing offers traders a potential pre-market positioning window, though Coady's modest mainstream profile limits exposure compared to the moguls stars on the following day.
Key events
Women's Snowboard Big Air Final: 5:30 am AEDT
For traders
FL (Foot Locker), ZUMZ (Zumiez): Youth retail. Coady gold could create a temporary buzz.
MNST (Monster Beverage): Less volatile, general action sports sponsor.
Wednesday, February 11
The calm before Jakara Anthony. No Australian events on Wednesday means traders spend the day positioning for the biggest moment of the Games: Anthony's moguls final just past midnight.
Moguls Finals - Thursday, February 12
The biggest moment of the Games for Australia arrives just after midnight on Wednesday with Jakara Anthony defending her Olympic crown in the Women's Moguls Final.
As the nation's brightest gold medal hope with 26 World Cup victories, Anthony's 12:15 am performance is the single highest-impact potential event for NEC and VFC stocks across the entire Olympic fortnight.
Matt Graham also chases his first Olympic gold at 10:15 pm Thursday night. Both events carry high NEC and VFC volatility potential.
Key events
Women's Moguls Final (Jakara Anthony): 12:15 am AEDT
Men's Moguls Final (Matt Graham): 10:15 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC (Nine Entertainment): Monitor overnight results and viewership for Thursday open direction.
VFC (VF Corp/North Face): Sponsors both athletes. A double medal could bring a larger impact.
Defending champion volatility: An Anthony loss could create higher emotional swings.
Social sentiment: Track Twitter/Google Trends Thursday morning to gauge the magnitude of Anthony’s performance.
Friday, February 13
Snowboard cross takes centre stage with two Australian medal chances bookending Friday's trading day.
Adam Lambert's overnight final sets the morning open, while Josie Baff's evening showdown takes the Aus prime time slot.
Key events
Men's Snowboard Cross Finals: 12:56 am AEDT
Women's Snowboard Cross Finals: 7:30 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC sentiment gauge: If Lambert medals Fri morning and Graham medaled Thu night, it could create positive momentum.
Jakara Anthony competes - Saturday, February 14
Jakara Anthony goes for the double in Saturday night's Women's Dual Moguls Final.
If she claims gold Thursday and again here, the "double gold Jakara" narrative writes itself, offering geometric rather than linear media value.
Key events
Women's Dual Moguls Final (Jakara Anthony): 9:46 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC narrative power: "Double gold Jakara" could draw in more casual viewers.
If Anthony silver/bronze Thu: Redemption story potential.
Weekend timing: Saturday night result = Monday ASX gap.
Format risk: Monitor qualifying rounds; if margins are greater than 1 second (blowouts), engagement could drop.
Sunday, February 15
A quiet Sunday offers redemption arcs and low-impact action. Brendan Corey's morning short track effort carries minimal stock relevance, while Matt Graham's late-night dual moguls final provides a second medal chance after Friday's traditional event.
Key events
Short Track Speed Skating 1500m Final: 8:42 am AEDT
Men's Dual Moguls Final: 9:46 pm AEDT
For traders
VFC second opportunity: If Graham misses on Friday’s moguls, dual moguls redemption is possible.
Monday, February 16
Harry Laidlaw returns to the slopes for late Monday night slalom action, but alpine skiing holds minimal sway over Australian audiences.
This is a placeholder day in the trading calendar, with markets more focused on digesting the weekend moguls results and positioning for Tuesday's monobob final.
Key events
Men's Slalom: 11:00 pm AEDT
Bree Walker competes - Tuesday, February 17
Bree Walker could make Olympic history as she competes in the Women's Monobob Final, chasing Australia's first-ever bobsleigh medal.
While the narrative is powerful, the commercial reality is that bobsleigh has no retail sponsor footprint, limiting direct stock plays.
Key events
Pairs Figure Skating Final: 6:00 am AEDT
Women's Monobob Final: 7:06 am AEDT
For traders
NEC: Bobsleigh historically gets low ratings, but a Walker gold could provide value as an Australian-first.
Wednesday, February 18
Veterans Laura Peel and Danielle Scott take centre stage on Wednesday night in an event with proud Australian history (2 golds since 2002). However, aerials' niche appeal and late-night timing may limit market impact.
Key events
Women's Aerials Final: 9:30 pm AEDT
Women's Slalom Final: 11:30 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC: If either medals, potential for a small sentiment boost.
VFC exposure: Limited potential as aerials athletes are less commercially developed.
Thursday, February 19
Thursday night aerials effort is a low-impact finale event with minimal medal expectation for Australian Reilly Flanagan, and even less market relevance.
Scotty James' Saturday halfpipe showdown is the real conversation as the games begin winding down, although a medal run from Flanagan could create an underdog narrative.
Key events
Men's Aerials Final: 9:30 pm AEDT
Friday, February 20
The final calm before Scotty James' legacy-defining Saturday. Set up day for James' 5:30 am Saturday halfpipe final, the Games' last major potential volatility event for an Aussie athlete.
Scotty James competes - Saturday, February 21
Scotty James' legacy moment arrives Saturday morning. He’s represented Australia at five Olympics, with two medals and zero golds. This is his final chance and brings with it the Games' most emotionally charged event, and the last major trading catalyst before Monday's Closing Ceremony.
Key events
Men's Snowboard Halfpipe Final (Scotty James): 5:30 am AEDT
SkiMo Mixed Relay: 11:30 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC: Potential weekend delays on price discovery. If James gold Saturday.
NKE (Nike): Potential halo effect from gold via action sports lift.
Guseli wildcard: Valentino is also competing (his second event after Big Air, Feb 8). A dual medal could create narrative amplification.
Sunday, February 22
Sixteen-year-old Indra Brown takes the Sunday morning spotlight in Women's Freeski Halfpipe, facing off against favourite Eileen Gu (CHN) in what could become a Gen-Z brand inflection point.
Key events
Women's Freeski Halfpipe Final(Indra Brown): 5:30 am AEDT
Two-Woman Bobsleigh Final: 7:05 am
For traders
Mon-Tue watch: Monitor which brands announce Brown signings.
MILN (Global X Millennials ETF): Action sports retailers, social platforms exposure for Gen Z.
Closing Ceremony - Monday, February 23
The curtain falls on Milano Cortina 2026 with Monday morning's Closing Ceremony, and history says this is where euphoria dies.
Men's Ice Hockey Final (NHL Superstars): 12:10 am AEDT
Closing Ceremony: 6:00 am AEDT
Markets to watch:
French Alps 2030 rotation: Closing features handover to France.
Australian medal count: If greater than 4 medals (Beijing total), the government may increase 2030 winter sports funding.
Ice Hockey Final: NHL players compete for the first time since 2014. Major US/Canada viewership means a potential CMCSA boost.
