Uber posts better-than-expected Q4 results – the stock is rising
Klavs Valters
13/2/2023
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Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) announced Q4 2022 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The US company posted better-than-expected results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. Uber reported revenue of $8.607 billion (up by 47% year-over-year or 59% in constant currency) vs. $8.513 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.29 per share for the quarter. Analysts were expecting a loss per share of -$0.154. It’s the first time since Q4 2021 that the company has reported higher-than-expected EPS.
CEO and CFO commentary ''We ended 2022 with our strongest quarter ever, with robust demand and record margins,'' Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber. ''Our global scale and unique platform advantages position us well to accelerate this momentum into 2023.'' "In 2022, we significantly exceeded our profitability outlook, with an incremental margin of 10%,'' Nelson Chai, CFO of the company added. ''Our outlook for a Gross Bookings and Adjusted EBITDA step up in Q1 builds on that progress, and sets us up for yet another record year." Stock reaction Share price of Uber rose by around 2% on Wednesday and was trading at around $35.91 a share – the highest level since April 2022. Stock performance 1 month: +26.77% 3 months: +35.37% Year-to-date: +45.33% 1 year: -10.57% Uber stock price targets Wedbush: $38 Needham: $54 Wolfe Research: $42 Wells Fargo: $46 Piper Sandler: $33 Truist Securities: $60 Cowen & Co.: $70 Morgan Stanley: $54 Mizuho: $46 UBS: $36 Barclays: $54 Uber is the 204 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $71.61 billion. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
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In 2025, the S&P 500 traded around 6,835 and was up approximately 16% year to date (YTD). Market direction remained most sensitive to Federal Reserve expectations, inflation data and the earnings outlook, with returns also shaped by mega-cap tech leadership and the broader AI narrative. The index pulled back from earlier December highs, but it has so far held above key major moving averages (MA).
Key 2025 drivers included:
Fed expectations and inflation: Inflation cooled through the year but remained sticky around 2.5% to 3%. A Fed easing bias likely supported price to earnings (P/E) multiples and “risk-on” positioning. More recently, markets appeared increasingly rate-sensitive, with the decreased likelihood of an additional rate cut until March 2026.
Earnings and guidance: Corporate earnings remained strong quarter on quarter. Recent Q3 results reportedly saw over 80% of the S&P 500 beat earnings per share (EPS) expectations. For Q4, the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate is 8.1%, despite ongoing concerns around import tariffs and potential margin pressure.
Index leadership and breadth: Returns were heavily influenced by mega-cap tech and AI beneficiaries, even as broader market breadth appeared less consistent at points through the year.
Policy headlines and volatility: Trade and tariff headlines drove sharp moves, particularly earlier in the year. Some investors pointed to the “TACO” trade, with rapid recoveries after policy proposals were softened. Over time, similar shocks appeared to have less impact as the market became somewhat desensitised.
Valuations and sensitivity: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22, above the 5-year average (20.0) and above the 10-year average (18.7). That gap kept valuation sensitivity, especially in AI-linked names, firmly in focus.
Current state
The S&P 500 is about 1% below record highs hit earlier in December. That could indicate the broader uptrend remains in place, with a move back toward the recent highs one possible scenario if momentum improves. Despite the recent retracement, the index remains above all key major moving averages (MA). The latest bounce followed lower than expected CPI numbers earlier this week, alongside continued, and to some, surprising optimism about what may come next.
What to watch in January
Q4 earnings from mid-January: Results and guidance may help clarify whether valuations are being supported by forward expectations.
AI narrative and positioning: With AI-linked mega-caps carrying a large share of market capitalisation, changes in sentiment or expectations could have an outsized impact on index performance.
US jobs and CPI data: The latest US jobs report reportedly points to the highest headline unemployment rate since 2021. Cooling inflation this week may keep markets alert to shifts in rate cut timing, particularly around the March decision.
S&P 500 daily chart
Source: TradingView
Major FX pairs
Source: Adobe Images
AUD/USD
AUD/USD has been choppy in 2025. Since the “redemption day” drop in April, the move has looked more like a steady grind higher than a clean upside trend.
Key levels Recent peaks in early September and mid-December highlight resistance near 0.6625. Support has been evident around 0.6425, where price bounced over the last month.
What is supporting the bounce That support test coincided with stronger than expected jobs and inflation data, lifting expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may raise rates during 2026 rather than cut again. The latest pullback looks contained so far, with buying interest already visible and price still above key longer-term moving averages.
What could drive a breakout The pair remains range-bound, but the tilt is still constructive. If Chinese data stays firm, metals prices hold up, and the central bank outlook remains relatively hawkish, a break above resistance could gain more traction.
AUD/USD daily chart
EUR/USD
After early 2025 euro strength, EUR/USD has mostly consolidated since June in a roughly 270 pip range. This month tested 1.18 resistance, reaching highs not seen since September.
What price is doing now The recent pullback still lacks strong downside conviction. Some technical analysts refer to the 1.17 area as a near-term reference level.
What could come next If price holds 1.17 and buyers step back in, another push toward 1.18 is possible. One view is that the European Central Bank (ECB) could be less inclined to ease in 2026, which could be consistent with a firmer EUR/USD scenario. Broader analyst commentary also suggests the euro may stall rather than collapse against the US dollar, although outcomes remain data and policy dependent.
EUR/USD daily chart
USD/JPY
Year-to-date picture USD/JPY is close to flat overall for the year. After US dollar weakness in Q1, the pair reversed higher and now sits just below resistance near 158.
Rates remain the main driver Rate differentials still favour the US dollar. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held steady for much of the period despite expectations it might act, and the recent rate increase was modest. Policy has only moved marginally away from zero.
What could shift the balance Rate differentials remain a key influence. Without a clearer shift in BOJ policy, the JPY may find it difficult to sustain a rebound. Some market commentators cite 154.20 as a chart reference level.
2025 has seen a material decline in the fortunes of the greenback. A technical structure breakdown early in the year was followed by a breach of the 200-day moving average (MA) at the end of Q1. The index then entered correction territory, printing a three-year low at the end of Q2.
Since then, we have seen attempts to build a technical base, including a re-test of the end-of-June lows in mid-September. However, buying pressure has not been strong enough to push price back above the technically critical and psychologically important 100 level.
What the levels suggest from here
As things stand, the index remains more than 10% lower for 2025. On this technical view, the index may revisit the 96 area. However, technical levels can fail and outcomes depend on multiple factors.
US dollar index
Source: TradingView
The key question for 2026
The key question remains: are we likely to see further losses in the early part of next year and beyond, or will current support hold?
We cannot assess the US dollar in isolation and any outlook is shaped by internal and global factors, not least its relative strength versus other major currencies. Many of these drivers are interrelated, but four potential headwinds stand out for any US dollar recovery. Collectively, they may keep downside pressure in play.
Four headwinds for any US dollar recovery
1. The US dollar as a safe-haven trade
One scenario where US dollar support has historically been evident is during major global events, slowdowns and market shocks. However, the more muted response of the US dollar during risk-off episodes this year suggests a shift away from the historical norm, with fewer sustained US dollar rallies.
Instead, throughout 2025, some investors appearedto favour gold, and at other times, FX and even equities, rather than into the US dollar. If this change in behaviour persists through 2026, it could make recovery harder, even if global economic pressure builds over the year ahead.
2. US versus global trade
Trade policy is harder to measure objectively, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. That said, trade battles driven by tariffs on US imports are often viewed as an additional potential drag on the US dollar.
The impact may be twofold if additional strain is placed on the US economy through:
a slowdown in global trade volumes as impacted countries seek alternative trade relationships, with supply chain distortions that may not favour US growth
pressure on US corporate profit margins as tariffs lift costs for importers
3. Removal of quantitative tightening
The Fed formally halted its balance sheet reduction, quantitative tightening (QT), as of 1 December 2025, ending a program that shrank assets by roughly US$2.4 trillion since mid-2022.
Traditionally, ending QT is seen as marginally negative for the US dollar because it stops the withdrawal of liquidity, can ease global funding conditions, and may reduce the scarcity that can support dollar demand. Put simply, more dollars in the system can soften the currency’s support at the margin, although outcomes have varied historically and often depend on broader financial conditions.
4. Interest rate differential
Interest rate differential (IRD) is likely to be a primary driver of US dollar strength, or otherwise, in the months ahead. The latest FOMC meeting delivered the expected 0.25% cut, with attention on guidance for what may come next.
Even after a softer-than-expected CPI print, markets have been reluctant to price aggressive near-term easing. At the time of writing, less than a 20% chance of a January cut is priced in, and it may be March before we see the next move.
The Fed is balancing sticky inflation against a jobs market under pressure, with the headline rate back at levels last seen in 2012. The practical takeaway is that a more accommodative stance may add to downward pressure on the US dollar.
Current expectations imply around two rate cuts through 2026, with the potential for further easing beyond that, broadly consistent with the median projections shown in the chart below. These are forecasts rather than guarantees, and they can shift as economic data and policy guidance evolve.
Source: US Federal Reserve, Summart of Economic Projections
The “Magnificent Seven” technology companies are expected to invest a combined $385 billion into AI by the end of 2025.
Microsoft is positioning itself as the platform leader. Nvidia dominates the underlying AI infra. Google leads in research. Meta is building open-source tech. Amazon – AI agents. Apple — on-device integration. And Tesla pioneering autonomous vehicles and robots.
The “Big 4” tech companies' AI spending alone is forecast at $364 billion.
With such enormous sums pouring into AI, is this a winner-take-all game?
Or will each of the Mag Seven be able to thrive in the AI future?
Microsoft: The AI Everywhere Strategy
Microsoft has made one of the biggest bets on AI out of the Mag Seven — adopting the philosophy that AI should be everywhere.
Through its deep partnership with OpenAI, of which it is a 49% shareholder, the company has integrated GPT-5 across its entire ecosystem.
Key initiatives:
GPT-5 integration across consumer, enterprise, and developer tools through Microsoft 365 Copilot, GitHub Copilot, and Azure AI Foundry
Azure AI Foundry for unified AI development platform with model router technology
Copilot ecosystem spanning productivity, coding, and enterprise applications with real-time model selection
$100 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025
Microsoft’s centrepiece is Copilot, which can now detect whether a prompt requires advanced reasoning and route to GPT-5's deeper reasoning model.
This (theoretically) means high-quality AI outputs become invisible infrastructure rather than a skill users need to learn.
However, this all-in bet on OpenAI does come with some risks. It is putting all its eggs in OpenAI's basket, tying its future success to a single partnership.
Elon Musk warned that "OpenAI is going to eat Microsoft alive"[/caption]
Google: The Research Strategy
Google’s approach is to fund research to build the most intelligent models possible. This research-first strategy creates a pipeline from scientific discovery to commercial products — what it hopes will give it an edge in the AI race.
Key initiatives:
Over 4 million developers building with Gemini 2.5 Pro and Flash
Ironwood TPU offering 3,600 times better performance compared to Google’s first TPU
AI search overviews reaching 2 billion monthly users across Google Search
DeepMind breakthroughs: AlphaEvolve for algorithm discovery, Aeneas for ancient text interpretation, AlphaQubit for quantum error detection, and AI co-scientist systems
Google’s AI research branch, DeepMind, brings together two of the world's leading AI research labs — Google Brain and DeepMind — the former having invented the Transformer architecture that underpins almost all modern large language models.
The bet is that breakthrough research in areas like quantum computing, protein folding, and mathematical reasoning will translate into a competitive advantage for Google.
Today, we're introducing AlphaEarth Foundations from @GoogleDeepMind , an AI model that functions like a virtual satellite which helps scientists make informed decisions on critical issues like food security, deforestation, and water resources. AlphaEarth Foundations provides a… pic.twitter.com/L1rk2Z5DKk
Meta has made a somewhat contrarian bet in its approach to AI: giving away their tech for free. The company's Llama 4 models, including recently released Scout and Maverick, are the first natively multi-modal open-weight models available.
Key initiatives:
Llama 4 Scout and Maverick - first open-weight natively multi-modal models
AI Studio that enables the creation of hundreds of thousands of AI characters
$65-72 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025
This open-source strategy directly challenges the closed-source big players like GPT and Claude. By making AI models freely available, Meta is essentially commoditizing what competitors are trying to monetize. Meta's bet is that if AI models become commoditized, the real value will be in the infrastructure that sits on top. Meta's social platforms and massive user base give it a natural advantage if this eventuates.
Meta's recent quarter was also "the best example to date of AI having a tangible impact on revenue and earnings growth at scale," according to tech analyst Gene Munster.
H1 relative performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks. Source: KoyFin, Finimize
However, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing for Meta. Their most anticipated release, Llama Behemoth, has all but been scrapped due to performance issues. And Meta is now rumored to be developing a closed-source Behemoth alternative, despite their open-source mantra.
Amazon: The AI Agent Strategy
Amazon’s strategy is to build the infrastructure for AI that can take actions — booking meetings, processing orders, managing workflows, and integrating with enterprise systems.
Rather than building the best AI model, Amazon has focused its efforts on becoming the platform where all AI models live.
Key initiatives:
Amazon Bedrock offering 100+ foundation models from leading AI companies, including OpenAI models.
$100 million additional investment in AWS Generative AI Innovation Center for agentic AI development
Amazon Bedrock AgentCore enabling deployment and scaling of AI agents with enterprise-grade security
$118 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025
The goal is to become the “orchestrator” that lets companies mix and match the best models for different tasks.
Amazon’s AgentCore will provide the underlying memory management, identity controls, and tool integration needed for these companies to deploy AI agents safely at scale.
This approach offers flexibility, but does carry some risks. Amazon is essentially positioning itself as the middleman for AI. If AI models become commoditized or if companies prefer direct relationships with AI providers, Amazon's systems could become redundant.
Nvidia: The Infra Strategy
Nvidia is the one selling the shovels for the AI gold rush. While others in the Mag Seven battle to build the best AI models and applications, Nvidia provides the fundamental computing infrastructure that makes all their efforts possible.
This hardware-first strategy means Nvidia wins regardless of which company ultimately dominates. As AI advances and models get larger, demand for Nvidia's chips only increases.
Key initiatives:
Blackwell architecture achieving $11 billion in Q2 2025 revenue, the fastest product ramp in company history
New chip roadmap: Blackwell Ultra (H2 2025), Vera Rubin (H2 2026), Rubin Ultra (H2 2027)
Data center revenue reaching $35.6 billion in Q2, representing 91% of total company sales
Manufacturing scale-up with 350 plants producing 1.5 million components for Blackwell chips
With an announced product roadmap of Blackwell Ultra (2025), Vera Rubin (2026), and Rubin Ultra (2027), Nvidia has created a system where the AI industry must continuously upgrade to Nvidia’s newest tech to stay competitive.
This also means that Nvidia, unlike the others in the Mag Seven, has almost no direct AI spending — it is the one selling, not buying.
However, Nvidia is not indestructible. The company recently halted its H20 chip production after the Chinese government effectively blocked the chip, which was intended as a workaround to U.S. export controls.
Apple: The On-Device Strategy
Apple's AI strategy is focused on privacy, integration, and user experience. Apple Intelligence, the AI system built into iOS, uses on-device processing and Private Cloud Compute to help ensure user data is protected when using AI.
Key initiatives:
Apple Intelligence with multi-model on-device processing and Private Cloud Compute
Enhanced Siri with natural language understanding and ChatGPT integration for complex queries
Direct developer access to on-device foundation models, enabling offline AI capabilities
$10-11 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025
The drawback of this on-device approach is that it requires powerful hardware from the user's end. Apple Intelligence can only run on devices with a minimum of 8GB RAM, creating a powerful upgrade cycle for Apple but excluding many existing users.
Tesla: The Robo Strategy
Tesla's AI strategy focuses on two moonshot applications: Full Self-Driving vehicles and humanoid robots.
This is the 'AI in the physical world' play. While others in the Mag Seven are focused on the digital side of AI, Tesla is building machines that use AI for physical operations.
Tesla’s Optimus robot replicating human tasks
Key initiatives:
Plans for 5,000-10,000 Optimus robots in 2025, scaling to 50,000 in 2026
Robotaxi service targeting availability to half the U.S. population by EOY 2025
AI6 chip development with Samsung for unified training across vehicles, robots, and data centers
$5 billion projected AI infrastructure spending for 2025
This play is exponentially harder to develop than digital AI, and the markets have reflected low confidence that Tesla can pull it off.
TSLA has been the worst-performing Mag Seven stock of 2025, down 18.37% in H1 2025.
However, if Tesla’s strategy is successful, it could be far more valuable than other AI plays. Robots and autonomous vehicles could perform actual labour worth trillions of dollars annually.
The $385 billion Question
The Mag Seven are starting to see real revenue come in from their AI investments. But they're pouring that money (and more) back into AI, betting that the boom is just getting started.
The platform players like Microsoft and Amazon are betting on becoming essential infrastructure. Nvidia’s play is to sell the underlying hardware to everyone. Google and Meta compete on capability and access. While Apple and Tesla target specific use cases.
The $385 billion question is which of the Magnificent Seven has bet the right way? Or will a new player rise and usurp the long-standing tech giants altogether?
You can access all Magnificent Seven stocks and thousands of other Share CFDs on GO Markets.
Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)
Key areas in focus
Advertising (Family of Apps)
Advertising remains Meta’s dominant revenue driver. AI-driven ad targeting, Reels monetisation, and engagement efficiency can be important contributors to revenue growth and may support advertiser outcomes, noting results can vary by advertiser, format, and market conditions.
User engagement and monetisation
Engagement trends across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads remain closely watched as indicators that can influence monetisation assumptions and medium-term expectations.
Artificial intelligence
Meta views AI as a foundation for content discovery, advertising performance, and the development of generative tools. Markets may continue to evaluate whether AI-driven gains offset the level of infrastructure and data centre investment required to support these projects.
Reality Labs
Reality Labs remains loss-making. Management continues to frame AR/VR and metaverse-related platforms as long-term strategic investments, while acknowledging continued operating losses and a drag on earnings performance.
The company’s reported (GAAP) net income and EPS reflected a one-time, non-cash income tax charge disclosed in the earnings materials, while management commentary also emphasised cost discipline and investment priorities.
Reality Labs operating loss: about US$4.43 billion
How the market reacted last time
Meta shares fell in after-hours trading after the release. Commentary at the time highlighted strong top-line outcomes, alongside investor focus on the outlook for spending and the pace of AI and infrastructure investment.
What’s expected this quarter
Bloomberg consensus points to continued year-on-year revenue growth, led by advertising, with operating margins expected to remain elevated despite ongoing AI and infrastructure expenditure.
Capital expenditure (capex): elevated, reflecting AI and data centre investment
*All above points observed as of 23 January 2026.
Expectations
Sentiment around Meta Platforms may be sensitive to any disappointment around advertising demand, margin sustainability, or the scale of ongoing investment in AI and Reality Labs.
Recent price action suggests that some market participants appear to be pricing in a relatively constructive earnings outcome, which can increase sensitivity to negative surprises.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±3% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.
Implied volatility was about 31% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 23 January 2026.
These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian traders
Meta’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into broader global equity risk appetite and index-linked products traded during the Asia session after the release, which can be volatile and unpredictable following earnings events.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
Australian CPI may test market pricing for a February RBA move, while the Federal Reserve narrative will be followed closely, even though a pause is widely expected. It is also a busy US earnings week, with mega-cap names headlining, and Gold remains a key market focus.
Australia CPI: Australian CPI is the key domestic release, with markets pricing the risk of a February RBA rate increase.
US Federal Reserve: The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, with attention on whether a potential June rate cut remains intact.
US mega-cap tech earnings: Earnings from large-cap technology names may test whether current equity valuations remain supported.
Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs.
Australia
Australia CPI (Q4): Wednesday, 28 January
Stronger-than-expected jobs report this week lifted market expectations for further policy tightening.
According to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker, market-implied pricing for a February rate increase has risen to above 60%.
Market impact
AUD crosses may respond to any shift in rate expectations
Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see follow-through moves
Federal Reserve
FOMC rate decision: Wednesday, 28 January (US) | 29 January (AEDT)
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce no change in rates after its two-day meeting.
Market focus will centre on communication around inflation progress, and whether market-implied pricing for a potential June rate cut is reinforced or challenged.
Market impact
USD direction may respond to any shift in policy tone across multiple asset classes
US Treasury yields, especially at the front end, may react to changes in rate expectations
US mega-cap earnings
Boeing: 27 January (US time) | 28 January AEDT
Microsoft: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
Meta Platforms: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
Tesla: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
Caterpillar: 29 January (US time, before market open)/30 January AEDT
Apple: 29 January (US time, after market close) | 30 January AEDT
Earnings from US mega-cap technology companies are likely to dominate headlines, but next week is also one of the busiest periods so far this earnings season across multiple sectors.
Markets are likely to focus on guidance, margins and capital expenditure as much as the headline results.
Market impact
Nasdaq leadership breadth may respond to guidance consistency
With equity markets remaining generally strong, current valuations will again be tested
Overall performance across sectors will be viewed as a lens into the state of the econ
(Note: Dates may be subject to change)
Gold
At the US close on 22 January 2026, COMEX gold futures traded around US$4,920/oz, with the psychologically important 5,000 level in view.
Sensitivity to Treasury yields and the USD, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical developments may influence price action either way.
Market impact
Gold prices can remain sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, USD movements and geopolitical developments.
Movements around record levels can be volatile and unpredictable, and may reverse quickly.
FX markets face a data-heavy period in the coming days, led by US inflation releases and late-week flash purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs).
Regional data and central bank expectations in Japan, Europe, and Australia may influence cross-currency moves, particularly if outcomes differ from expectations.
Quick facts:
US Personal Income and Outlays is a key inflation release this week, closely watched by policymakers.
Flash PMIs across the US, Eurozone, Germany, and the UK offer a timely read on growth momentum.
Australian data, including labour market indicators, remains important for AUD sensitivity and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations.
FX markets can be sensitive when data outcomes differ from expectations.
USDJPY
What to watch
US attention centres on inflation and activity data, particularly the Personal Income and Outlays report and the PCE price index, alongside late-week flash manufacturing and services PMIs.
These releases are closely followed by markets for their potential influence on rate expectations and USD sensitivity.
On the JPY side, Bank of Japan (BoJ) developments remain relevant, although US data has often been a key driver of recent moves.
Key releases and events
Fri 23 Jan (US): US Personal Income and Outlays (including PCE inflation)
Fri 23 Jan (US): Manufacturing and services PMI
Technical snapshot
USDJPY continues to trade above its rising 200-day moving average, with recent daily candles showing greater overlap and smaller ranges over recent weeks.
Price has remained above the long-term average since late September, with higher swing lows still visible.
Momentum appears to have moderated since early January, consistent with slowing follow-through rather than reversal.
Daily ranges have narrowed compared with the October to November advance, again suggesting short-term consolidation.
Eurozone flash PMIs and Germany producer price index (PPI) data provide insights into regional growth momentum and whether inflation pressures are building.
While these releases may influence immediate EUR sentiment, EURUSD continues to trade in the broader context of US data outcomes and global risk conditions.
EURUSD is trading above its rising 200-day moving average (daily chart), although price action since July suggests the market has become more range-bound rather than directional, following the advances in the first half of 2025.
The broader upward structure has been in place since the beginning of 2025, although progress higher has stalled over recent months.
Momentum readings have drifted toward neutral since late November, consistent with balanced conditions.
Average daily range has continued to compress since July, consistent with a flattening of the trend.
Australian labour market data remains central for AUD sensitivity and RBA expectations. UK CPI is also due this week, which may contribute to cross volatility, particularly if it shifts expectations around the UK rates outlook.
Late-week PMI releases can also influence short-term direction, especially where they add to or challenge the current growth narrative.
Key releases and events
Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
Thu 22 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Australia (December 2025)
Fri 23 Jan: UK flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)
Technical snapshot
GBPAUD continues to trade below its long-term moving average, with price action remaining in a downside direction since late November.
The long-term average flattened through September and has turned lower since October, with the price remaining below and showing recent signs of a greater gap between the price and the moving average.
Momentum has remained below neutral over recent months, with any retracements to the upside showing limited follow-through.
Daily ranges have narrowed compared with earlier swings, suggesting a consistent but controlled drop in price rather than impulsive movement.
With multiple data releases due across key regions, FX markets may remain sensitive to outcomes that differ from expectations.
Existing technical conditions suggest that reactions may vary by pair, with some markets consolidating while others could retain recent directional characteristics.
