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US inflation data on Wednesday is the week's centrepiece, but with oil nearing seven-month highs, Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment shifting, and the Australian dollar at three-year highs, traders have plenty to navigate in the week ahead.
Quick Facts
- US inflation rate (February) is the key binary event for rate cut pricing and equity direction.
- Brent crude is trading around US$82–84/bbl, near seven-month highs, with a $4–$10 geopolitical risk premium baked in from Iran/Hormuz tensions.
- Bitcoin is trading above US$70,000 as of 6 March, a potential trend change if it holds through the week.
United States: inflation in focus
Last month’s US inflation reading showed prices rising 2.4% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% target.
February's inflation rate, due Wednesday, will be scrutinised for signs that tariff pass-through or rising energy costs are pushing prices back up, or whether the slow grind lower is still intact.
The March FOMC meeting on 17–18 March is now priced at only an 4.7% probability of a cut. A higher-than-expected inflation print this week could potentially push rate cut expectations further out.
A softer read opens the door to renewed cut pricing and potential relief across risk assets.
Key Dates
- US Inflation Rate (February CPI): Wednesday 11 March, 12:30 am (AEDT)
Monitor
- Core vs. headline inflation divergence as evidence of tariff pass-through in goods prices.
- 2-year and 10-year treasury yield sensitivity to the print.
- USD direction and FedWatch repricing in the lead up to the 18 March FOMC decision.
Oil: elevated and event-sensitive
Brent is currently trading around US$83–85 per barrel, with a 52-week range spanning $58.40 to $85.12, reflecting the dramatic move triggered by the Middle East conflict.
Analysts estimate the geopolitical risk premium already baked into oil at US$4–$10 per barrel, and average 2026 Brent forecasts have been lifted to US$63.85/bbl, up from US$62.02 in January.
The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent to average $58/bbl in 2026, well below the current spot price.
The gap between spot and the forecast baseline could be a useful frame for traders this week: any de-escalation signal from the Middle East could rapidly close that gap.
Monitor
- Strait of Hormuz developments and any diplomatic signals from Iran nuclear talks.
- EIA weekly oil inventory data.
- Oil's knock-on to inflation expectations and whether it shifts central bank posture.
- Energy sector equity performance relative to the broader market.
Bitcoin: sentiment watch
BTC has been attempting to stabilise after a brutal 53% correction over the past 17 weeks, fuelled by escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns.
However, yesterday saw a 8% jump back above $72,000, and the crypto “fear and greed index” jumped up to 29 (fear), up from below 20 (extreme fear), where it has been sitting for over a month, indicating a potential sentiment shift.
A cooler-than-expected US inflation print on Wednesday could provide further fuel for the breakout; a hot print risks potentially pulling BTC back below the US$70,000 level it has just reclaimed.
Monitor
- Inflation print reaction on Wednesday as the primary macro catalyst for the move.
- Any rotation into altcoins following BTC strength.
- ETF inflow/outflow data as confirmation of institutional participation.
AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA meets geopolitical crosswinds
The Aussie is trading near more than three-year highs and heading for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, up more than 6% year-to-date, making it the top-performing G10 currency in 2026.
The driver is a clear policy divergence. RBA Governor Michele Bullock signalled the March policy meeting is "live" for a possible rate increase, and warned that an oil price shock from Iran tensions could reignite domestic inflationary pressures.
Market pricing now suggests around a 28% chance of a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting, while fully pricing in tightening through May, and around a 75% chance of another increase to 4.35% by year-end.
This hawkish read, set against a Fed on hold and facing dovish political pressure, creates a potential structural tailwind for the Aussie.
Monitor
- AUD/USD reaction to Wednesday's US inflation data.
- RBA rate hike probability repricing through the week.
- Iron ore and commodity prices as secondary AUD drivers.
- China demand signals, given Australia's export exposure.
The much awaited NVDA Q4 earnings didn’t disappoint with the tech giant knocking it out of the park, handily beating analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines. For the quarter, Nvidia reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.16 on revenue of $22.1 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of $4.60 on revenue of $20.4 billion.
For context the same period last quarter Nvidia reported EPS of $0.88 on $6.1 billion, a huge jump which saw NVDA stock surge over 7% after hours, touching the all-time highs set earlier in February. Gold rallied for the fifth straight session despite hawkish leaning FOMC minutes which saw a dip in XAUUSD to test the 2020 support level before rebounding. AUD and NZD were modestly up against the USD, with NZD outperforming its Aussie peer, sending AUDNZD below 1.06 and testing the 2024 lows, this despite Aussie Q4 wage price data coming in hotter than expected, rising to 4.2% against an expected 4.1%.
Some pricing in of a RBNZ hike next week seemingly the driver of NZD strength in this cross.
Chinese electric vehicle company Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) announced Q4 and 2023 fully-year results before the US market opened on Monday to kick off a new trading week. Li Auto achieved revenue of $5.878 billion (up by 136.4% from Q4 2022) vs. $5.599 billion expected. EPS was reported at $0.594 per share in Q4, above estimate of $0.446 per share.
Full-year revenue reached $17.44 billion in 2023. The company delivered 376,030 cars, an increase of 182.2% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 19,396 (2022) Industry: Automotive Key people: Li Xiang (Chairman and CEO), Yanan Shen (President), Tie Li (CFO) CEO commentary Li Xiang said this in a statement to investors after the company announced better-than-expected results: "Undeterred by the fiercely competitive NEV market in 2023, Li Auto achieved an outstanding performance with its three Li L series models.
Full-year deliveries grew by 182.2%, reaching 376,030 vehicles, making us the best-selling brand among NEVs priced above RMB300,000 in China. In December, we released the OTA version 5.0 for Li L series. With comprehensive enhancement in autonomous driving and smart space, we bring even more exceptional experience to family users.
With our significantly increasing scale, continued research and development advancement, and consistently improving operating efficiency throughout the year, 2023 marks our best financial performance yet, setting a solid foundation for Li Auto’s growth to diversify its product matrix and cater to a broader range of user needs in 2024." Stock reaction The latest results not only had a positive impact on Li Auto stock but on the whole EV market in general. Li Auto shares surged by over 18% on Monday, trading at $41.34 a share – the highest level since 20/11/23. Here is how other EV stocks performed on Monday.
Stock performance 5 day: +27.35% 1 month: +44.89% 3 months: +1.47% Year-to-date: +7.65% 1 year: +72.93% Li Auto stock price targets Deutsche Bank: $41 Bank of America: $60 Barclays: $48 HSBC: $43 Morgan Stanley: $40 Li Auto Inc. is the 465 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $41.18 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Li Auto Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Business software company Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) reported Q2 of fiscal 2024 earnings results after the market closed in the US on Thursday. The company achieved revenue that was in line with analyst estimates at $3.386 billion. Revenue increased by 11% year-over-year.
Earnings per share topped Wall Street estimates at $2.63 (up by 20% year-over-year) vs. $2.297 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: Mountain View, California, United States Number of employees: 18,200 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software Key people: Sasan Goodarzi (CEO), Scott Cook (Chairman) CEO commentary "We had another strong quarter as consumers and small businesses continue to rely on Intuit’s platform to power their prosperity," Sasan Goodarzi, CEO of Intuit said in a statement to investors. "We have great momentum innovating across our products, and we're well on our way to becoming the trusted assistant that our customers use to fuel their financial success," Goodarzi added. Stock reaction The stock was up by 3.08% on Thursday, trading at $657.92 a share.
There was no great deal of movement in after-hours trading as investors digested the latest results. Stock performance 5 day: -1.49% 1 month: +2.01% 3 months: +15.98% Year-to-date: +4.70% 1 year: +58.88% Intuit stock price targets Wells Fargo & Company: $710 Oppenheimer: $678 KeyCorp: $700 Susquehanna: $700 Citigroup: $651 Barclays: $660 Piper Sandler: $642 BMO Capital Markets: $640 Morgan Stanley: $570 Stifel Nicolaus: $600 Mizuho: $625 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $470 HSBC: $520 Wolfe Research: $660 Argus: $640 Deutsche Bank: $575 Credit Suisse Group: $570 Intuit Inc. is the 66 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $183.13 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Intuit Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
USD was ultimately flat in Thursdays session after a rollercoaster of a ride, DXY printed a low in the European session of 103.43 before rallying up to the 100 Day SMA at 104.10 after better than expected US Jobless claims. Flash PMIs for February were mixed with a fall in Services but a rise in Manufacturing, DXY heading into the APAC session just below the 104 level. JPY was softer vs the Dollar with USDJPY holding above the psychological 150 level which has become a short term support level.
Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda saying that Japan's trend inflation is heightening and the BoJ will make appropriate monetary policy decisions, failing to offer much support for the Yen. AUD and NZD - saw notable strength during the APAC and European session tracking higher with equities after the big beat in NVDA earnings. Both currencies came off highs though after USD rallied on strong jobless claims data.
For the fifth straight session AUD again underperformed its Kiwi rival, seeing AUDNZD dropping well below 1.06, setting new lows for 2024 and not far off the lows of 2023. Gold again tested the support at 2020 USD an ounce, and again held in a whipsawing session. Trading at around 2024 heading into the APAC session.
American Semiconductor manufacturing company Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) released fiscal first quarter 2024 financial results before the US market open on Wednesday. The company topped analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter in a row. Analog achieved revenue of $2.513 billion for the quarter ending 3/2/24 vs. $2.497 billion expected.
Revenue decreased by 23% vs. the same period last year. EPS reported at $1.73 vs. $1.705 per share estimate. EPS was down by 37% year-over-year.
Analog also raised its quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.92 a share to be paid on 15/3/24 to all shareholders as of 5/3/24. Company overview Founded: 1965 Headquarters: Wilmington, Massachusetts, United States Number of employees: 24,450 (2022) Industry: Semiconductors Key people: Vincent Roche (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary Company CEO, Vincent Roche said this in a letter to investors: "ADI delivered first quarter revenue and profitability above the midpoint of our outlook, despite the continued difficult macroeconomic environment" "Consistent with our prior view, we expect customer inventory rationalization to largely subside in our second quarter, and thus enter the second half in a more favorable business backdrop. Importantly, we are well positioned to capitalize on the inevitable upswing given our replenished die banks, short lead times, and agile hybrid manufacturing model," Roche concluded his statement.
Stock reaction The latest results had a postive impact on the stock on Wednesday. Shares were up by nearly 2%, trading at $193.03 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +3.39% 1 month: -2.86% 3 months: +5.45% Year-to-date: -2.99% 1 year: +4.83% Analog Devices stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $205 Wolfe Research: $225 Barclays: $185 Sandford C.
Bernstein: $200 TD Cowen: $210 Truist Financial: $206 Susquehanna: $210 UBS Group: $210 Piper Sandler: $175 Oppenheimer: $215 Morgan Stanley: $225 Evercore ISI: $210 Analog Devices Inc. is the 163 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $95.76 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Analog Devices, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced the latest financial results before the US market open on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain achieved revenue of $173.388 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $170.854 billion expected. Revenue grew by 5.7% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.80 (up from $1.71 the year prior) vs. $1.643 per share expected. Full-year revenue grew by 6% from the year before $648.1 billion. EPS grew by 5.7% to $6.65 per share.
Walmart also announced that it will acquire electronics company VIZIO HOLDING CORP. in a deal worth $2.3 billion. Company overview Founded: July 2, 1962 Headquarters: Bentonville, Arkansas, United Kingdom Number of employees: 2.1 million (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Greg Penner (Chairman), Doug McMillon (President and CEO) CEO commentary Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart had this to say to investors: ''Our team delivered a great quarter, finishing off a strong year. We crossed $100 billion in eCommerce sales and drove share gains as our customer experience metrics improved, even during our highest volume days leading up to the holidays.
We’re proud of the team and excited about building on our momentum as we work to bring prices down for our customers and members.'' Stock reaction Shares rose by over 3% during Tuesday's trading session, trading at $175.75 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +3.33% 1 month: +8.36% 3 months: +13.31% Year-to-date: +11.62% 1 year: +20.16% Walmart stock price targets JPMorgan Chase & Co.: $176 Stifel Nicolaus: $175 Deutsche Bank: $190 Telsey Advisory Group: $185 Oppenheimer: $185 Morgan Stanley: $168 BMO Capital Markets: $175 Truist Financial: $170 Royal Bank of Canada: $168 Evercore ISI: $177 Jefferies Financial Group: $195 Stephens: $190 Tigress Financial: $196 Piper Sandler: $210 Walmart Inc. is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $473.78 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap