Noticias del mercado & perspectivas

US indices were down today as Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve is going to increase interest rates at a higher and faster rate than currently in place. US equities dropped after Powell’s speech. Ultimately the major indices ended relatively flat by the close of trading.

The Nasdaq closed down 0.40% after taking a breather from its recent buying momentum. The Dow Jones was dragged down by Boeing after a 737-plane crash in the mountainous Guangxi region in China. The Boeing share price saw a 5.74% drop on the opening before recovering a little to close the day down by 3.60%.

The S&P500 was also choppy as it reacted the Jerome Powell’s speech but finished flat. The FTSE 100 showed gains as an uplift in commodities supported the index with oil spiking. This provided strength for the UK’s biggest oil companies BP and Shell with both rising by 3%.

The FTSE ended the day up 0.51% whilst the DAX was down 0.60%. Commodities Brent Crude Oil made a powerful move overnight rising 7.91% to 116.33 USD. This came as European Union officials debated whether to place sanctions on Russia's lucrative energy sector to pressure the country over its invasion of Ukraine.

An embargo on Russian oil similar to what the USA and the UK have done may have drastic implications for the EU in which 40% of its gas is imported from Russia. Natural gas prices also continue to remain in the upper end of their recent price range. Gold remains near its recent support levels ending the day at 1929 USD per ounce.

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin had a choppy day as BTC/USD ended flat overall. Ethereum was the better performer closing the day with a 1.87% rise. The ETH/USD continues to hold just below the $3000 resistance level.

FOREX The EUR/USD continued to be rejected at the $1.08 level after the speech from the Federal Reserve spurred USD strength. The AUD/USD has not been able to break through its recent highs of $0.74 as it proved a flat day for the pair after the previous day’s strong moves. The USD has continued its strong move against the JPY as it climbed another 0.27%.

The JPY has continued to struggle against most other currencies. The GBP/JPY has closed in on its recent area of support 157.00-158.00 JPY as seen below as it looks to potentially break out.

The stronger-than-expected US non-farm employment change data release last week saw the DXY climb strongly higher, beyond the 103 price level. With markets now anticipating that the US Federal Reserve could reinforce its hawkish stance, further upside is expected for the DXY. On the other hand, uncertainty rises over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy stance following the surfacing of rumors that Masayoshi Amamiya was approached to succeed the current BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda.

The appointment of Amamiya as governor could likely see the BoJ continue with its ultra-easy monetary policy, ultimately leading to further weakness for the Japanese Yen. Technical Overview The recent change in sentiment of the DXY has led the USDJPY to pause on the previous downtrend, finding support at the 127.00 price area. The current retracement of price to the upside has seen the USDJPY break above the bearish trendline formed in November last year.

If this upward momentum continues and the USDJPY breaks above the 133.50 price level, which coincides with the 23.60 Fibonacci retracement level, this could signal confirmation for a bullish correction. The USDJPY could continue to trade higher, with the bullish momentum supported by the divergence in the Moving Average Convergence & Divergence (MACD), toward the target price level of 142.50 price level, formed by the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level and previous swing high from November 2022.

Market response to any specific economic data release is far from standard even if actual numbers differ greatly from consensus expectations. Rather the market response is based on context of the current economic situation. This week’s non-farm payrolls, being one of the major data points in the month, is a great case in point.

There are many factors and of course the key one for you as an individual trader is your chosen vehicle you are trading (and of course direction i.e. long or short for open positions). The context of today’s impending non-farm payrolls from a market perspective is interest rate expectations going forward. This week the Fed gave the market the expected.25% cut that was already priced into currency, bond and equity market pricing.

The market response however, as this was already priced in, was as a result of the accompanying statement which was not as dovish as perhaps anticipated and a reduction in expectations of a further imminent cut. From an equity market point of view the result, despite the interest rate cut, was to sell off, whereas from the USD perspective this lessening expectation of further rate cuts was bullish. Perhaps this could be viewed as contrary to what the textbooks would suggest is a standard response.

So, onto today's non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure… Logic would suggest that a strong number is good news for the economy, and so should be positive for equities and perhaps bearish for USD. However, as this may be a critical number in the Feds decision making re. interest rate decisions, a strong NFP is likely to have the opposite effect. A weaker number is likely to be perceived as potentially contributory to thinking that another rate cut may be prudent sooner and so despite on the surface being “bad news”, it would not be surprising to see equities stronger and USD weaker.

It remains to be seen of course what the number is and the actual response but is perhaps a lesson in seeing new market information within the potential context of the current economic circumstances and of course incorporate this in your risk assessment and trading decision making. Mike Smith Educator Go Markets [email protected] Disclaimer The articles are from GO Markets analysts based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of the their own and of a ‘general’ nature.

Advice (if any) are not based on the readers personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Readers should therefore consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.

We frequently refer both in the articles we publish and the weekly “Inner Circle” sessions we present, to the benefits of a trading journal. However, the reality is that many traders make the choice not to measure trading despite the logical benefits of doing so. Whether you do or don’t currently, the bottom-line decision you are making is not only whether you do or don’t but how that positions yourself with your trading development.

We would suggest that this overall choice can be broken down into the following three sub-choices. You can make the decisions that are right for you subsequently. Sub-choice 1 – Measuring your system You are either making the choice to: Have certainty on not only whether your trading plan as a whole can create positive outcomes but have evidence to know which component parts of your plan are e.g. indicators you use for entry and exit, comparing strategies you trade, timeframes that work best for you, (and which are not) contributing to such outcomes.

Additionally, it allows you to compare what would happen if you change some of the perimeters on your potential results. OR You have no evidence as to whether your system as a whole and its components parts are working well to serve you in getting the results you desire. Nor do you can test and gather evidence as to what the impact of nay changes you may make to that system, Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?

Sub-choice 2 – Measuring you as a trader You are either making the choice to: Know the degree to which you are following your plan or otherwise so you can ultimately make a judgement on: a. Whether your system is working for you (all the points in sub-choice 1 above CANNOT be made unless you are following your plan religiously). b. What you need to work on in terms of tightening your behaviour e.g. on exits or entry c.

Whether there are certain market conditions which you find difficult or are ill-prepared for (so you can fill any knowledge gaps or avoid in the future). OR You can continue to trade as you do, avoiding any self-assessment and growth, and the refinement of your behaviour that may contribute to more positive trading outcomes. Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?

Sub-choice 3 – Improving your trading (closing the circle) (let’s assume you are keeping a journal for this one) You are either making the choice to: Measure with purpose that has clear follow through into further development and refinement of your trading plan and subsequently your actions. This facilitates the development of you as a trader based on your individual character and trading style. In practical terms, you ‘close the circle’ with a defined review and develop an action plan based on your review to test and change parts of your plan.

This is evidence-based trading! OR You can measure for measurements sake to on the surface appear to be “doing a right thing” but in reality, failing to unleash the real power of journaling, that is to make an on-going and continuous positive difference to your trading outcomes. Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?

In summary, if you have made the choice to read this article to its end you are left with one ultimate choice…to journal or not to journal including the three sub-choices that dependent on which you are making can impact on your trading. So, for one last time, Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results what should my actions be with what I have read in this article? Our next steps and Share CFD education programme both have indicative trading journal templates to help get you started, and we would be delighted if you could join us.

Mike Smith Educator GO Markets Disclaimer The articles are from GO Markets analysts based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Find additional Forex trading education resources here. Next: 5-point checklist for using chart patterns within your tradin

Success leaves clues, and over the years as an educator and coach, I can confidently say that there are several things that traders who achieve positive trading outcomes appear to do, that less successful traders are not doing. One of these is to have a daily agenda or habits that go alongside direct trading activities with the aims of getting and staying in the optimum “state” to trade and to facilitate consistency in action. Here are 5 observations to consider… #1 – Check in on your potential “trading state” before you look at the market We have discussed in previous articles the advantages of making decisions when you are in an optimum state to do this.

I highly recommend you read my 10 Ways to Manage Your Trading Psychology – a Blueprint for Development post if you haven't already. If one constantly interacts with the market, consistent and constructive action may be more difficult. Therefore, logically "checking in" where you are before you start your trading day becomes even more necessary.

It may be there are things going on in your non-trading world that are significant enough to be a justifiable distraction and require attention, or you are not in the best of health. However, it's important to realise that the markets WILL always be there. There are times when it is good to trade and times when you should give yourself permission not to. #2 – Re-align with trading purpose and plan at the start of your trading day Your trading purpose, or your reason for trading, is your start point for developing strategies that are consistent with your trading objectives.

Your trading plan is your “guiding light” in making this purpose happen. Every trading decision should relate to these, and without it, traders have a lower chance of creating the trading outcomes they desire. In the “heat of the market”, it is easy to get “sucked in” to the price action of open trades as you see your trading capital moving up and down.

Without the explicit instruction of a pre-prepared plan, it becomes more difficult to maintain the consistency and clarity that it is already characteristic of experienced traders. Touching base, or re-aligning with these at the start of your trading day offers a reminder as to the why and how you will think, decide and act in the hours to come. #3 – Make a judgment on what to expect Every day the market throws up different challenges, different price movements, volatility, and new economic information, influencing overall market sentiment. Advanced traders take the time to make an overview judgment on what is happening and adjust decisions on time-frames traded, risk level or chosen strategies, accordingly.

For example, one of the possibilities we have discussed in a previous article and in Inner Circle sessions is the concept of adjusting risk level according to the strength of the signal or underlying market conditions. What we mean by this is that if our normal tolerable risk level is 2% of our trading account capital on each trade as a standard and we note increased market uncertainty indicated by higher price volatility, but identify a potential opportunity for entry, we may adjust that risk level to 1% in light of this observation. Having a system to make a judgment prior to trading allows this sort of approach to be taken, making it an unquestionable attribute of an experienced trader. #4 – Check in with yourself at key points during your trading day Your emotional state can, and often will change throughout your trading day, primarily dependent on either the results you are getting or your judgment on performance.

We are all familiar with the concept of ‘revenge trading’ if a trade, or series of trades move against you. This is at the extreme end of capital damaging emotional state. Equally and more insidiously dangerous is a succession of wins or losses where your consistency may waver, either originating from a belief that you can perhaps “feel the market” or begin to doubt yourself as a trader.

A potential solution is to have it written in your plan that if either of these scenarios is the case, then you could move away from the market for a period of time, enabling you to reset, re-align and revisit the market later on with a refreshed sense of purpose and plan. #5 – Review your day including completion of journaling tasks Formal review of performance is a critical part of on-going trading development. We have discussed many times the benefits of keeping a journal record of your trades, within not only measure outcomes, but the decisions that were taken to create these. Completing your journal daily may identify common threads of both things that went well (and you can mirror going forward) as well as potential areas for development.

Experienced traders who do this give themselves that important chance of sustainable growth which appears to be a key factor in long term trading outcomes. To summarise, you always have a choice as to whether you integrate what you read into your trading. In this case, it is the choice of having a daily agenda that can contribute positively to your long term trading strategy.

Every week I run education webinars offering innovative and comprehensive learning across all aspects of trading knowledge and practice. If you would like to expand your knowledge and build your confidence as a trader while also connecting with other Forex and CFD traders, register here.

One of the most common questions we are asked on some of the webinar sessions we run is “What timeframe might be best for me to trade?”. This slightly longer article than we would usually write, seemed merited to provide some detailed “food for thought” as it appears to be an important issue for many. This is not something we can answer for you as an individual, as which timeframe(s) you choose to trade is a personal choice, but the purpose of this article is to put forward some of the considerations that you should contemplate as you make this decision for yourself.

Generally speaking, and to offer up some sort of definition for the purposes of this article, traders choose to trade: Shorter (fast) timeframes intraday (1-15 mins) Medium timeframes intraday (30mins-4 hourly) Longer (slow timeframes) daily (4-hourly-daily) There are usually two common motivations that may lead the trader to consider a change in the timeframes they are currently trading: a. Having difficulties “fitting” trading around other life activities. b. Believe that changing timeframes may produce improved results (or same results with less impact on lifestyle).

Before moving on further, and particularly if in the “b” group ask yourself this key question: Should I be considering a timeframe change at all or are there other priorities I should have? Before considering a timeframe change, we assume that you have the following in place: You have a written trading plan/system that specifies entry, exit and position sizing criteria AND the timeframe(s) you are currently trading. You look at the market before making any decision related to entry (including pending orders), initial risk minimising exit (stop loss), profit targets, and any trailing of your initial stop.

You consider economic data/announcements as part of your decision-making processes and understand the different impact that different types of “news” can create. You have a method through which you can determine the success or otherwise of the decisions you make including that of timeframes traded (e.g. a trading journal). If you do not have ALL the above in place, then perhaps your priority may NOT be deciding whether to change timeframes.

So, with a tick placed by the above, if it is right to consider a change in time-frame, there are commonly three overview factors to consider. 1. Your access to the market (screen-time – how much and when). 2. Flexibility (how frequently you can touch base with the live market). 3.

Competence and understanding relating to the practical trading implications of any timeframe including trading set ups and risk management including position sizing. Let’s explore these in a little more detail with FOUR key considerations: 1. Technical considerations Here is the good news…The following are relevant in ANY and MULTIPLE timeframes: Chart patterns Candle information Indicator usage in entry and exit systems If you are moving to a longer time-frame consider: Differences in key chart values (e.g. volatility).

You need to adjust your thinking in terms of what is the norm for the timeframe you are looking at. So, for example a 40 pip move in a 4-hourly chart may be the normal value whereas on a 15-minute chart this would be a massive move. Key data times.

There are critical points in the day where there may be several economic data releases in a relatively short time-span. These usually coincide with the opening of relevant equity market open. So, for example most of the significant data out of the US will be released within a two-hour window straddling the US stock market open (8.30-10.30 US EST).

Hence price action seen on charts, will usually be at its most active during these times. Get to know these if you are trading longer term timeframes. 2. Risk and position size considerations: With faster timeframes, traders generally: • Open larger positions with the trading idea of a smaller Pip move. • Have a tighter Pip stop loss as even smaller movements impact significantly on dollar outcome. • Are aware the even “less significant data” can create more relative market “noise” and need to have this factored into trading entry and exits decisions.

With slower timeframes, traders generally: • Open smaller positions with the aim of a larger Pip move. Tighter Pip stop loss as even smaller movements impact significantly on dollar outcome. • Have a wider stop-loss as smaller movements irrelevant and so there is less chance of being taken out by price movement “noise” within a longer price move. • Are aware that relative major movements are from major data points (and therefore need to learn what these are). 3. Practical considerations Firstly, look at the time you have to invest in your trading (and this may be subject to negotiation with partners etc., and of course with what else is going on in your life).

If you are planning ring-fencing screen time, for example a couple of hours per day, then giving the attention to trading shorter timeframes may be more viable. If it difficult to access larger amount of “block” time but short frequent touch base with the market is possible, then longer timeframes may be more suitable. Generally speaking, to give an example of how the latter may work in practical terms, you may have a trail stop strategy that you wish to adjust at the close of each candle/bar.

If this is the case, then if you can check in hourly, an hourly timeframe may work for you. Four other things to consider: Even if trading longer timeframes some trader choose to use a shorter timeframe to ‘refine’ entry, if trading a daily chart. After entry, as stated previously you should subsequently stick to the longer timeframe for decisions.

If trading shorter timeframes, many traders use a daily chart for the “big picture” to identify long term trends (to avoid trading against these) or to identify longer term key price points (e.g. well-established support and resistance). There are some trading approaches that are promoted as being daily approaches e.g. Inside bar.

Holding costs are associated with daily chart trading and of course you can touch base with your account manager for further clarity). 4. Mindset Considerations: Any article on just about anything to do with trading would not be complete without some reference to the psychological and subsequent behavioural aspects of the topic. Here are some of the common mindset issues to consider: With shorter timeframes: • It is easier to get sucked in to watching price movements (i.e. ‘staring’ at the P/L column continuously) that may evoke emotional decision making rather than be based on your trading system and CHART price action. • Short term trading is perceived as being more “exciting”.

If you find this resonates ask yourself are you really trading for excitement or for profit? • Your business is “done for the day” when you are finished trading which means you are not “distracted” by the market when other life things should have your focus. With longer timeframes: • Not generally “peddled” as an advantage of FX trading by the “gurus” out there. Therefore, it may feel that to trade daily charts is going ‘against the norm’ and may feel uncomfortably strange at first. • If you have traded shorter timeframes previously, it is a habit you may have to work at breaking and resist the temptation to take a “sneak peek” at shorter timeframe charts, and alter your decision-making. • There are many “experts” you will see wheeled on to give an opinion on CNBC, Bloomberg etc that have a prediction about what may happen in the future to any currency (or index/commodity if trading CFDs).

Remember: a. These “experts” are not your ticket to riches but are there to make interesting TV as well as provide some insight. Indeed, you will often find contrary experts brought on at different times in the day.

Their opinions should be viewed as you would with any “hot tip” i.e. thank you ‘Mr Expert’, but does it fit my trading plan? b. There is a greater temptation to move away from one of the golden rules of system trading i.e. “Trading what you see rather than what you think” (or what the experts think)”. • May occupy thinking throughout the day and so may be more difficult to “let go” and give the focus to the rest of your world outside trading. And to finish….

What happens next is down to you! If you haven’t tried to trade longer/shorter timeframes why don’t you test it out (but see point re, should it be your priority). Trade as you do now LIVE and trade different timeframe on demo.

Compare not only the results but the impact on the rest of your life activities. Journaling may help. You may make the choice to trade multiple timeframes.

If you do then you should make sure this is reflected in your trading plan/system and what market circumstances would lead you to trade which timeframes. We trust that this has been useful, even if the outcome is that you make the decision to continue to trade your current chosen timeframes and of course please feel free to share this article if you think it would benefit others (it’s easy just click on one of the social media links to make it happen). Finally, if you are not part of the growing GO Markets ‘Inner Circle’ community, where you can access weekly education sessions, you are invited to join our Facebook group "Time For a Change?

Considering Longer or Shorter Timeframe FX and CFD Trading " is written by Mike Smith - an external Analyst and is based on his independent analysis. He remains fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

For more information on trading, check out our forex trading webinar.