Noticias del mercado & perspectivas

Global central banks have been a crucial part in providing aid and support to the global economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Faced with an unprecedented crisis, central bankers have rapidly deployed various monetary tools to keep credit flowing and support businesses and households. Given that interest rates were somewhat already at record-lows in many major countries, asset purchase schemes were widely used to put downward pressure on long-term rates.

Monetary policies were also accompanied by huge fiscal intervention. Also, in a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing US dollar liquidity swap line, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank have even agreed to lower their rates on currency swaps. What's Next?

The two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting which will end on Wednesday with a statement followed by a press conference will be heavily eyed. Markets will likely look for clues on how the Fed’s is viewing the health of the economy after easing lockdown measures. Even though Friday’s jobs report came much better-than-expected and there was a decline in the unemployment rate from 14.7% to 13.3% in May, it is widely expected that the FOMC will keep rates steady near zero.

The scenario of negative interest rates is also highly unlikely. As the pandemic continues to create havoc on the global economy, it is also reshaping the political dynamics: Quarterly Forecasts Much attention will, therefore, be on the economic and interest rate forecasts. The Fed refrained from providing any forecasts during the pandemic given the tremendous uncertainties about the economic outlook.

This Fed’s meeting has, therefore, the potential to move markets if much details are revealed about future plans and expectations for inflation, GDP and unemployment. The projections are expected to be much worse than the favourable outlook seen in the last forecasts back in December. Dot Plots High unemployment and weak inflation have been the key factors forcing central banks to keep rates at record low levels.

The recent jobs reports came as a surprise and have raised expectations that the labour market may be rebounding at a quicker pace than expected. Investors would, therefore, look for explicit guidance from the Fed on how long they will likely keep rates near zero. Even though the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, the so-called dot plot which shows the entries of the FOMC officials regarding the interest rate forecasts will be scrutinized for guidance.

Latest dot plots – December 2019 Yield Curve Control As short-term interest rates approach zero, there have been recent speculations of the possibility that the Federal Reserve may control the yield curve and cap specific yields to cushion the impact of a downturn. Stock Market Global stocks have rallied significantly since March lows on the back of massive economic stimulus packages from central banks and governments which will likely stay in place for a while. In an extremely low-interest rate environment, quantitative easing and large fiscal policy measures have absorbed the pandemic-induced shocks and camouflaged the stark reality of the impact of the coronavirus.

On Monday, investors drove the S&P500 to a 15-week high, erasing its 2020 losses– lifted by heightened expectations of a quicker recovery and a supportive Federal Reserve. After a great run to the upside, investors appear to be taking a pause and booked profits ahead of the Fed’s decision. Equity traders would want to hear that the Fed will stay accommodative, keep interest rates unchanged and remains committed to supporting the economy while still striking some optimistic tones on the recovery of the economy.

US Dollar The US dollar was mostly weaker against major currencies as risk sentiment has improved lifted by heightened expectations of a quicker recovery following the reopening of economies earlier than initially expected. The surprising nonfarm payrolls have fueled those expectations and kept the greenback on the downside. If the Fed is set to look into the yield curve control as per the speculations, the US dollar may come under more pressure.

Source: Bloomberg Gold Amid the reopening of economies, geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar, the precious metal has been trading sideways within a $70 range as traders wait for the next biggest catalyst. As of writing, gold has firmed higher above the $1,700. Gold traders will eye the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting.

XAUUSD (Daily Chart) Source: GO MT4

EU Recovery Fund After a standoff between the EU and Germany, following a critical ruling on ECB’s quantitative easing program by Germany’s constitutional court, the gradual reopening of economies of member states within the Eurozone has brought some optimism. The downside risks for the Eurozone and its shared currency have somewhat eased on the fact that Europe, which was the epicentre of COVID-19 after China, might have gone through the worst phase of the pandemic. The sentiment for the Euro was also buoyed by the EU Recovery fund proposed by Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Emmanuel Macron to help Europe’s mostly hit countries.

Unfortunately, the optimism over the coronavirus fund proposal, which aims to show unity in overcoming the crisis and to achieve quicker economic recovery, was short-lived. Europe’s Frugal Four Amid an unprecedented crisis, the Franco-German proposal was to provide support and reinforce EU financial relations and show that Europe is standing together. Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden, dumbed as the “ frugal four ” put forward a counter-proposal that highlights the diversion of opinions in helping the Southern members states.

Grants or Loans The Franco-German proposal is about “overcoming the crisis united and emerging from it stronger ”. Both leaders proposed to make outright grants to help countries in need. They want to launch a temporary fund of 500 billion euro for EU budget expenditure: “This would not provide loans, but rather budget funding for the sectors and regions hit hardest by the crisis.

We firmly believe that it is both justified and necessary to now provide funding for this from the European side that we will gradually deploy across several European budgets in the future.” In contrast, the frugal four wishes to provide loans rather than grants to southern European countries and expect the recipients of loans to comply with the fundamental principles of the EU and commit to strong reforms in repaying the loans. Their two-year and “one-off” proposal appears to also outline how those countries should use the funds and target sectors that are mostly hit based on an assessment. The coronavirus pandemic is testing the solidarity of European members and is threatening to reawaken a euro crisis.

Southern countries like Greece, Italy and Spain lacked the fiscal space they need to put forward an economic stimulus package to support their economies, compared to Northern countries. Disparity? Compromise?

Both proposals are saying “ yes ” to emergency aids to assist with recovery, but the disparity lies on how the funds will be financed to respond to the economic wreckage. The size of the emergency fund, the conditions of the funds or whether it will be grants or loans will be a compromise the markets are expecting to see. However, the type of compromise might be a key factor in determining the relationships of EU members.

Unprecedented times probably need unprecedented Unity. Euro – The Shared Currency The fact that Europe may have gone through the worst phase of the coronavirus has somewhat eased the downside risks of the shared currency. But the current geopolitical tensions with China and uncertainties on the EU Recovery plan are putting a lid on the upside momentum of the Euro.

After the sharp plunge in March, the EURUSD pair has been trading within the 1.08 to 1.09 range. Yesterday, the better-than-expected IFO Surveys in Germany has helped the pair to hold ground and hover around the 1.09 level. The recovery plan could mitigate the selling pressure and allow a probable move above 1.10 level if there is a compromise that satisfies the frugal four.

EURUSD Source: Bloomberg Terminal The immediate attention turns to the European Commission which is supposed to unveil a draft recovery plan on May 27 th, 2020. About GO Markets GO Markets was established in Australia in 2006 as a provider of online CFD trading services. For over a decade, we have positioned ourselves as a firmly trusted and leading global regulated CFD provider.

The Logistics Company has reported a 27% decline in net profit (after tax) for the six months ended 31 December. The drop in profit is mainly due to higher costs on: Fuel Transport Brexit-proofing costs. The company was also deprived of the one-off tax benefit of US$130 million from a year ago.

Below is a summary of key metrics: Source: www.brambles.com With respect to the IFCO reusable plastic container business, the Chief Executive, Mr Chipchase did not provide any concrete information and said that the process “is not sufficiently” advanced, further adding that the company has not yet made any decisions on whether they will “sell” or “de-merge” it. Its share price dropped to a low of $10.85 which is a drop above 3% before rebounding slightly. As of writing, it is trading at $11.04:

Central banks of major economies like the US, UK and Japan turned to quantitative easing (QE) at a time where they were unable to push interest rates any lower. The European Central Bank (ECB) launched its first large scale of asset purchases in 2015 and was among the latest central bank to join the QE bandwagon. How QE works The ECB adopted the QE program to address the risks of a prolonged period of low inflation and help the Eurozone to return to the desired inflation level.

The QE, also known as the Asset Purchase Program (APP), consists of: Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) Asset-backed Securities Purchase Programme (ABSPP) Third Covered Bond Purchase Programme (CBPP3) On 13 December 2018, the ECB decided to end the net purchases under the APP and announced that it would keep reinvesting cash from maturing bonds for a long time after its first interest rate hike. Market Expectations As the economic sentiment in the eurozone is worsening rapidly, investors are expecting the central bank to announce a robust stimulus package at its next meeting on Thursday: An Interest Rate Cut and Resuming Quantitative Easing. However, we saw divergent opinions on whether the central bank should resume asset purchases.

An Interest Rate Cut An interest rate policy by itself might not be enough, as cutting rates that are already negative will bring little help to the markets. If the central bank resume bond purchases, it could boost monetary and financing conditions. However, we are seeing divergent opinions on whether the central bank should resume asset purchases.

QE2 – The Second Round of Quantitative Easing In the height of the eurozone crisis from 2011-2014, such policies were probably justified. The current weakness in the euro- area might not be weak enough to warrant such a step, and there is now much skepticism on recommencing such non-standard and controversial monetary policies. The ECB policymakers have also dampened expectations of the resumption of bond purchases lately.

Market participants were initially expecting Mario Draghi to end its term with a significant package of monetary stimulus before Christine Lagarde takes over. It was are largely priced-in and now that the expectations eased ahead of the meeting, we are seeing European bond yields bouncing off record lows. Money markets and the foreign exchange markets are still expecting a traditional monetary policy intervention – at least a 10-basis point rate cut.

The Euro received a boost on Monday on hopes of German fiscal stimulus, though some expectations of monetary easing have limited the gains. EURUSD (H4 Chart) Source: GO MT4 If the central bank failed to satisfy dovish expectations already instilled in the markets, the shared currency may get a boost. The EURUSD pair may be trading sideways around the 1.10 level ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.

The pair could pick up a strong bid if the central bank falls short of expectations.

The week kicked off with a series of ECB speeches, and markets participants were gearing up to have more updates on the Eurozone economy, interest rate and Italy. Investors were keen to see whether the ECB downplays the slowdown in the German economy and the Italian Budget risks. We bring you a summary of the main headlines following the speeches: ECB’s Praet Speech: Peter Praet is a member of the ECB’s Executive Board since 2011.

The most captivating headlines from the latter are probably: “ The eurozone has lost some growth momentum, and headwinds are becoming increasingly noticeable.” He also argued that there is limited spillover from Italy so far. Praet acknowledged how the factors related to protectionism, financial market volatility and vulnerabilities in emerging markets are creating headwinds. He reiterated that the ECB policy will remain predictable and will proceed at a gradual pace.

He mentioned that it would need a big change in scenarios not to abide by rate guidance. ECB’s Nowotny Speech: Ewald Nowotny is the governor of the National Bank of Austria and member of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s governing council. Nowotny discussed the quantitative easing program and that the ending process poses little risk to financial stability.

He believes that “ a well-communicated exit may benefit financial health and very low rates for a long time may impair stability ”. ECB’s Coeuré Speech: Benoît Cœuré is a member of the ECB's Executive Board. The speech was mainly focused on Growth, Europe and Togetherness.

His speech captures how to reap the benefits of the Single Market. He highlighted how Europe’s East is not catching up which might question the value of the EU. “There have been some notable improvements in certain countries over time, but in others the process of gradually catching up with their EU peers appears to have stalled, or even to have backtracked, in recent years.” “And if there is no credible prospect of lower-income countries catching up soon, there is a risk that people living in those countries begin questioning the very benefits of membership of the EU or the currency union.” ECB’s President Draghi’s Speech: The President provided further insights into the euro area outlook and the ECB’s monetary policy. “The data that have become available since my last visit in September have been somewhat weaker than expected.” “A gradual slowdown is normal as expansions mature and growth converges towards its long-run potential…. Some of the slowdowns may also be temporary.” “Underlying drivers of domestic demand remain in place.” Overall, he expressed that the ECB maintained their view that the economy was still in line with expectations.

However, inflationary pressures were lower than expected which means that while bond purchases are set to end in December, the ECB will maintain significant monetary stimulus due to the moderation in recent data.

Dissecting the FOMC Statement The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates overnight by 25 basis points, taking the US Federal Funds rate to 2.25%. The rate cut was mostly seen as a hawkish one. In the press conference, Chair Powell said that the central bank’s rate cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment to policy ” rather than “the beginning of a long series of rate cuts.” We have dissected the July FOMC statement in comparison with the June statement to highlight the changes for ease of reference.