Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
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Artificial intelligence stocks have begun to waver slightly, experiencing a selloff period in the first week of this month. The Nasdaq has fallen approximately 2%, wiping out around $500 billion in market value from top technology companies.
Palantir Technologies dropped nearly 8% despite beating Wall Street estimates and issuing strong guidance, highlighting growing investor concerns about stretched valuations in the AI sector.
Nvidia shares also fell roughly 4%, while the broader selloff extended to Asian markets, which experienced some of their sharpest declines since April.
Wall Street executives, including Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warned of potential 10-20% drawdowns in equity markets over the coming year.
And Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, recently revealed his $1.1 billion bet against both Nvidia and Palantir, further pushing the narrative that the AI rally may be overextended.
As we near 2026, the sentiment around AI is seemingly starting to shift, with investors beginning to seek evidence of tangible returns on the massive investments flowing into AI, rather than simply betting on future potential.
However, despite the recent turbulence, many are simply characterising this pullback as "healthy" profit-taking rather than a fundamental reassessment of AI's value.
Supreme Court Raises Doubts About Trump’s Tariffs
The US Supreme Court heard arguments overnight on the legality of President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, with judges from both sides of the political spectrum expressing scepticism about the presidential authority being claimed.
Trump has relied on a 1970s-era emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose sweeping tariffs on goods imported into the US.
At the centre of the case are two core questions: whether the IEEPA authorises these sweeping tariffs, and if so, whether Trump’s implementation is constitutional.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett indicated they may be inclined to strike down or curb the majority of the tariffs, while Justice Brett Kavanaugh questioned why no president before Trump had used this authority.
Prediction markets saw the probability of the court upholding the tariffs drop from 40% to 25% after the hearing.
The US government has collected $151 billion from customs duties in the second half of 2025 alone, a nearly 300% increase over the same period in 2024.
Should the court rule against the tariffs, potential refunds could reach approximately $100 billion.
The court has not indicated a date on which it will issue its final ruling, though the Trump administration has requested an expedited decision.
Shutdown Becomes Longest in US History
The US government shutdown entered its 36th day today, officially becoming the longest in history. It surpasses the previous 35-day record set during Trump's first term from December 2018 to January 2019.
The Senate has failed 14 times to advance spending legislation, falling short of the 60-vote supermajority by five votes in the most recent vote.
So far, approximately 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed, and 730,000 are currently working without pay. Over 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and 750,000 National Guard and reserve personnel are also working unpaid.
SNAP food stamp benefits ran out of funding on November 1 — something 42 million Americans rely on weekly. However, the Trump administration has committed to partial payments to subsidise the benefits, though delivery could take several weeks.
Flight disruptions have affected 3.2 million passengers, with staffing shortages hitting more than half of the nation's 30 major airports. Nearly 80% of New York's air traffic controllers are absent.
From a market perspective, each week of shutdown reduces GDP by approximately 0.1%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the total cost of the shutdown will be between $7 billion and $14 billion, with the higher figure assuming an eight-week duration.
Consumer spending could drop by $30 billion if the eight-week duration is reached, according to White House economists, with potential GDP impacts of up to 2 percentage points total.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) reported the latest financial results on Wall Street after the market close on Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at the results. The US technology giant reported revenue of $52.747 billion for quarter ending on December 31, 2022 (up by 2% year-over-year), narrowly falling short of $52.987 billion revenue expected.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.32 per share (down 6% year-over-year) vs. $2.293 per share estimate. CEO and CFO commentary ''The next major wave of computing is being born, as the Microsoft Cloud turns the world’s most advanced AI models into a new computing platform,'' CEO of Microsoft, Satya Nadella looked into the future of the company. ''We are committed to helping our customers use our platforms and tools to do more with less today and innovate for the future in the new era of AI,'' Nadella concluded. Amy Hood, CFO: ''We are focused on operational excellence as we continue to invest to drive growth.
Microsoft Cloud revenue was $27.1 billion, up 22% (up 29% in constant currency) year-over-year as our commercial offerings continue to drive value for our customers.'' Stock reaction Shares of Microsoft were down by 0.22% at market close on Tuesday, trading at $241.56 a share. The stock was up by around 4% in the after-hours. Stock performance 1 month: +2.14% 3 months: -3.44% Year-to-date: +0.93% 1 year: -16.10% Microsoft stock price targets High: $365.00 Median: $280.00 Low: $212.00 Average: $284.76 Microsoft is the 3 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $1.804 trillion.
You can trade Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Microsoft Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, WSJ, CompaniesMarketCap
Ethereum and its big brother Bitcoin, have seen one of their most momentous moves since their peaks in November 2021. Various sector wide catalysts worked to move the price down including the collapse of Celsius and FTX which caused shockwaves to the cryptocurrency community. Inflationary pressures also left growth assets reeling in losses, leaving Ethereum beaten down over the last 12 months.
However, there are some signs that it might be starting to turn. From a broader economic perspective there is hope that the Federal Reserve will pivot from its aggressive rate hiking policy to avoid a potential recession which has led to a recent revival of growth assets including cryptocurrency. From a technical perspective the weekly price chart shows a clear head and shoulders pattern that has played out.
The question is whether sell down has finished or if there is further misery to come. The price has seen its range become tighter as it has struggled to break below the key support at $1050. This area also acts as the 200-week moving average adding to its supply.
The volume and volatility have also been reducing as the price has approached this level. The RSI is showing an interesting signal. The RSI has begun trending up which is diverging with the actual price action.
This may indicate that the price is ready to move to the upside in the short term. The 50-week moving average is plateauing indicating that the price is facing some strong support. On the daily chart, the price looks to be coiling with both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages trending up for the first time since before the price peaked in 2021.
Furthermore, it is possible that the 50-day moving average will cross through the 200-day moving average which is very bullish move. The price has also broken above both daily moving averages and may be looking to test the next resistance at $2030. This is also roughly the same price of the neckline of the underlying head and shoulders pattern.
Therefore, a target of $2030 is a reasonable for a short-term long trade/ Ultimately, the price of Ethereum looks like it may be ready to reverse however, it is still at the mercy of the broader Cryptocurrency sector news and macroeconomic catalysts.
What is a dividend? A dividend is a payment made by a company to its shareholders to give back some of its profits or return. Dividends are most often paid to shareholders, annually, semi-annual, or quarterly.
Non annual dividends that are paid periodically are known as interim dividends. Companies can also pay dividends at their discretion, and these are known as special dividends. Companies that issue dividends are usually very mature and stable businesses with steady cash flow.
Index funds, or ETF’s will often also pay dividends from as they receive dividends from their underlying holdings. In Australia, well-known companies that issues consistent dividends include ‘Big 4’ banks, BHP, Rio Tinto Wesfarmers, and Qantas just to name a few. In the USA, the big banks such as JP Morgan and other mature company’s such as Walmart and Coke Cola.
Important Terms Dividend Yield - The dividend yield is the total value of all dividends paid in the year divided by the share price. Alternatively, it can be thought of as the dividend return on the market value of the share. Ex-Dividend Date – This is the date in which a holder of stock must possess the stock to receive the dividend payment.
Dividend Payment date – This is the date in which the payment is made. Do Dividends even matter? There are theories that suggest dividends don’t really provide any benefit for holders as they are just eating into the overall Compound Annual Growth Rate of the price.
This is because once a dividend is paid the share price should adjust to account for the payment that has been made to the holder. For example, company A has a share price of $100 and issues a $1 dividend. Therefore, after the payment date, the price should in theory drop down to $99.
Consequently, those who oppose dividends as opposed to the being paid a dividend it a holder of a top performing share could just sell a certain number of their units to in some respects pay themselves a ‘dividend’. On the other hand, companies that pay dividends generally allow the holder to participate in what is known as a ‘reinvestment plan’. This is a scheme in which the company allows holders to reinvest their dividends back into the company’s shares and use the payment to purchase more of those shares allowing for compounding.
These schemes often operate without needing to pay commission and sometimes the shares are discounted. The reinvestment plan also removes certain tax liabilities. For instance, look below at an example of theoretical share that trades.
Price = $10.00 Number of shares at inception = 1000 Total Investment = $10,000.00 Annual Dividend growth =1% Annual share price growth = 1% Time period = 10 years Below is the same share but with a change in the timeframe of 10 to 20 years. This highlights how important having as much time in the market as possible can make a huge difference to the overall returns of a reinvestment strategy/portfolio. The return for 10 years with reinvestment is around 1.32 times the amount for without reinvestment.
Having the same investment for an extra 10 years will yield a return a result 2.35 times better than if the dividends are aid in cash. Can you live off dividends? Dividends payments have created an ideal or goal in which traders and investors strive for is to ‘live off’ their dividends.
Creating a portfolio that is heavily weighted towards dividend stocks can be a way in which to have a periodic income to supplement a pension or salary. This process involves developing a large enough portfolio that can provide these periodic dividends to a level that will cover the cost-of-living requirements. Choosing high quality, high yielding investments can provide this outcome for those who are savvy.
Below is a list of ETF’s and ASX Listed Stocks with the highest recent Dividend Yields? List of ETF Code Company Price Yield Gross DRP 1yr Return IVV Ishares S&P 500 ETF $37.63 16.67% 16.67% Yes -10.40% IHVV Ishares S&P 500 Aud Hedged ETF $37.06 14.93% 14.93% No -16.90% HACK Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF $7.57 8.99% 8.99% No -23.30% SLF SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Fund $11.28 7.45% 7.52% No -16.01% VAS Vanguard Australian Shares INDEX ETF $91.89 6.92% 8.86% Yes -2.18% ILC Ishares S&P/ASX 20 ETF $28.95 6.67% 9.35% Yes +2.77% STW SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Fund $67.10 6.43% 8.42% Yes -1.19% A200 Betashares Australia 200 ETF $123.01 6.35% 8.35% Yes -0.98% IOZ Ishares Core S&P/ASX 200 ETF $29.87 5.96% 8.06% Yes -0.53% VHY Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF $69.87 5.93% 8.31% Yes +5.46% SFY SPDR S&P/ASX 50 Fund $65.77 5.78% 8.01% Yes +1.78% VSO Vanguard MSCI Australian Small Companies INDEX ETF $64.70 5.54% 6.32% Yes -10.81% MVA Vaneck Australian Property ETF $21.20 5.14% 5.25% Yes -13.43% List of ASX Stocks Code Company Price Yield Gross DRP 1yr Return TER Terracom Ltd $0.99 20.20% 24.53% No +360.46% CRN Coronado Global Resources Inc $2.125 19.72% 19.72% No +40.26% MFG Magellan Financial Group Ltd $9.35 19.14% 25.46% No -53.25% YAL Yancoal Australia Ltd $6.53 18.85% 18.85% No +123.63% ACL Australian Clinical Labs Ltd $3.065 17.29% 24.70% Yes -43.24% NHC New Hope Corporation Ltd $6.67 12.89% 18.42% No +177.92% SIQ Smartgroup Corporation Ltd $5.41 12.20% 17.43% No -25.48% TAH Tabcorp Holdings Ltd $1.115 11.66% 16.66% Yes +13.99% BFL BSP Financial Group Ltd $4.80 11.36% 11.36% No +12.41% GRR Grange Resources Ltd $1.07 11.21% 16.02% No +30.49% LFS Latitude Group Holdings Ltd $1.42 11.06% 15.79% Yes -31.73% The final word Ultimately dividend portfolios can be a great step in achieving financial security and freedom and is also a great way to diversify a portfolio or trading strategy.
The price of Natural Gas has continued its drive back down after peaking in the middle of last year. The price has had an aggressive sell off after an equally aggressive run during the initial stages of the Russian and Ukraine conflict. This was due to Russian gas exports being banned and elevated inflation levels.
However, as the conflict has subsided the price of gas has returned to its seasonal trends. In addition, in recent weeks warmer weather has reduced the reliance on the energy source for much of Europe. The chart from a technical perspective is exceptionally bearish.
For the better part of a decade the price was ranging between 1.5 – 6.5. The aggressive move in 2022 as discussed was due to the beginning of the Russia and Ukraine crisis. The price since then looks to have made a head and shoulders pattern which is a bearish reversal pattern.
The neckline was at 5.5 and was broken through. The price has also broken down through the 200-day EMA on fairly aggressive volume. By zooming out, it can be seen that the recent sell off has been the price moving back into its long-term consistent range.
Therefore, the price should be nearing a bottom. As the price approaches 1.5/2 it may become a good opportunity for a long trade. An initial target at the top of the range of 6.6 could be a reasonable target for this medium-term swing trade.
The daily chart confirms this move and shows how the price has broken through the mid-level of support at 3.5. The daily chart also shows how the volume has been reducing significantly indicating some potential exhaustion in the short term and a spike in buying may be favorable for an upward thrust in price. Ultimately, the price of Gas could gain momentum if Europe’s winter brings about cooler weather or if China’s demand increases as it moves out of its Covid 19 restrictions increasing demand.
With volatility still high for the price of a natural gas caution should still be had when placing a trade.
The outlook for the Australian equities market is one of the best globally and is set up to cope with a potential recession. The Australian market showed itself to be robust in much of the volatility and downturn of last year being one of the more solid economies. This relative strength has carried so far into 2023 and has largely been due to the resource heavy nature of the ASX with most companies on the index being large resource and mining.
The XJO was also geographically protected from much of the geopolitical conflict in Europe that many European markets had to suffer through. The XJO is currently just 300 points off its all time high and with improving commodity prices it is well placed to weather a recessionary storm. A reopening of China may further support growth of the Australian market because growth in China may help various sectors such as travel, construction, manufacturing, and resources.
Lastly, as the Central banks across the world look at lowering interest rates it will only help growth economies such as Australia. Risk assets such as the Technology sector and growth economies should benefit as the cost of borrowing comes down. Although Banks will have to balance the need to lower rates with the need to tame inflation and the fight between which is a worse evil to fight will be much of the talking point of 2023.
Technical Analysis As stated above the XJO is currently just about 300 points below its all-time highs and is trending towards that target. Firstly, on the weekly chart the XJO has been able to maintain a tight range over the last 2 years. Once the dust had settled after the Covid 19 pandemic the price developed a range between 6412 and 7634.
The price also bounced of 6412 its long-term support twice in 2022 before pushing higher. Importantly, since October 2022, the XJO has been able to stay above the 50-week moving average as it has gained momentum. On the daily chart the price has broken to level not seen since April 2022.
Therefore, it is likely that the price may face some significant resistance as it approached 7600. Another positive sign is that the short term 50 day moving average has crossed back over the longer term 200 day moving average. This indicates that momentum is beginning to shift towards the bulls.
With more information still to come out, the Australian equities market is as well placed as any to deal with any potential macroeconomic factors that come its way.
TSMC posts strong Q4 results – the stock is rising Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM) reported Q4 financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. The Taiwanese company reported revenue of $20.554 billion for Q4, falling slightly short of Wall Street estimate of $20.574 billion. TSMC reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.875% for the quarter, higher than $1.795 EPS expected.
CFO commentary ''Our fourth quarter business was dampened by end market demand softness, and customers’ inventory adjustment, despite the continued ramp-up for our industry-leading 5nm technologies,'' Wendell Huang, VP and CFO said after the results. ''Moving into first quarter 2023, as overall macroeconomic conditions remain weak, we expect our business to be further impacted by continued end market demand softness, and customers’ further inventory adjustment,'' Huang looked ahead. The company expects the revenue of between $16.7 billion and $17.5 billion for Q1. Stock reaction Shares of TSMC were up by over 7% on Thursday at $88.07 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: 3 months: Year-to-date: 1 year: TSMC price targets Susquehanna: $88 Atlantic Equities: $170 Cowen & Co.: $120 Argus Research: $150 Goldman Sachs: $55 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is the 10 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $454.97 billion. You can trade Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap