Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
Los ataques estadounidenses e israelíes contra Irán lanzados el 28 de febrero hicieron que el crudo Brent superara los 119 dólares el barril, el oro por encima de los 5.200 dólares, y acciones de defensa a máximos históricos.
En ese contexto, los inversionistas se están enfocando en un pequeño grupo de nombres vinculados a materias primas que pueden seguir siendo sensibles a nuevos movimientos en petróleo, GNL y oro. La pregunta clave es si el choque resulta sostenido, o si un alto el fuego, la normalización del transporte marítimo o una acción política eliminan parte de la prima de riesgo geopolítico.
1. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
ExxonMobil ha sido uno de los beneficiarios más claros del aumento de precios. Las acciones alcanzaron un máximo histórico de US$159,60 a principios de marzo y están subiendo aproximadamente 28% en lo que va de año.
La compañía produce 4.7 millones de barriles de petróleo equivalente por día, tiene un punto de equilibrio en la Cuenca Pérmica de alrededor de 35 dólares por barril, y está comprometida con 20 mil millones de dólares en recompras para 2026.
Wells Fargo elevó su objetivo de precios a 183 dólares desde 156 dólares tras la escalada, mientras que el consenso de analistas más amplio se sitúa en torno a US$140—US$144. Sin embargo, XOM ya está negociando por encima de muchos objetivos de consenso, y la interrupción de su socio de GNL QatarEnergy plantea un viento en contra operativo a corto plazo.
Qué ver
- Si las interrupciones de Ormuz persisten más allá de 4 a 6 semanas.
- Una liberación de las existencias de emergencia del G7 o un alto el fuego creíble podrían comprimir la prima de riesgo de guerra.
- Cualquier ajuste a los objetivos de consenso de los analistas.
Qué significa el aumento de los precios del petróleo para Exxon
2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
Chevron tocó un nuevo máximo de 52 semanas de 196,76 dólares a principios de marzo y ha subido aproximadamente 24% en lo que va de año.
El punto de equilibrio Brent de la compañía para dividendos y gastos de capital ronda los 50 dólares por barril. Esto significa que a los precios actuales del petróleo por encima de los 90 dólares, está generando un importante flujo de caja libre.
Sin embargo, Chevron ha detenido temporalmente las operaciones en un campo de gas frente a la costa de Israel tras la actividad de misiles en la región, y desde entonces el stock ha retrocedido más del 1% ya que el conflicto afecta directamente sus operaciones.
Qué ver
- Actualizaciones operativas directas de los activos israelíes y de Oriente Medio de Chevron.
- Cualquier otra paralización que pueda pesar sobre la producción a corto plazo.
- Retención de crudo por encima de los 90 dólares, lo que mantiene a Chevron generando un importante flujo de caja libre.
3. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS/NYSE: WDS)
Dado que Qatar detuvo la producción después de los ataques con aviones no tripulados iraníes, los compradores de toda Asia y Europa están buscando un suministro alternativo. Woodside, como uno de los mayores productores y exportadores de GNL de Australia, se encuentra fuera de la zona de conflicto y está bien posicionado para beneficiarse de la demanda redireccionada.
Los analistas advirten que la sustitución real lleva tiempo debido a las restricciones de envío y del contrato, lo que significa que el aumento de precios puede ser más duradero que un simple comercio al contado. Los precios del gas de referencia del TTF europeo se dispararon más del 50% en una semana, amplificando el entorno de margen para los productores de GNL que no son de Oriente Medio.
Qué ver
- El ritmo y el cronograma de cualquier reinicio de la producción de GNL de Qatar.
- Si QatarEnergy permanece fuera de línea durante semanas, Woodside podría comenzar a recontratar compradores europeos a precios puntuales elevados.
- Un movimiento del dólar australiano al alza podría ser un viento en contra que vale la pena rastrear para las ganancias denominadas en USD.
4. Cheniere Energy (NYSE: GNL)
Junto a Woodside, Cheniere es el beneficiario estadounidense más directo de la interrupción del GNL de Qatar. Al ser el mayor exportador de GNL de Estados Unidos, vio fortaleza intradiaria al inicio de la semana del conflicto.
La producción nacional de energía de Estados Unidos ha amortiguado a los consumidores estadounidenses de lo peor de la conmoción, pero la prima de exportación se ha ampliado a medida que los compradores europeos y asiáticos pagan por el suministro fuera del Golfo.
El comercio es “geopolíticamente sensible”, y cualquier resolución podría revertir rápidamente al alza. Pero mientras la infraestructura de gas de Ormuz y del Golfo siga comprometida, Cheniere está posicionada para beneficiarse estructuralmente.
Qué ver
- Cualquier avance diplomático que reabra las rutas marítimas del Golfo.
- Anuncios de nuevos contratos de rebajas a largo plazo firmados a precios actuales elevados.
5. Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)
El oro repuntó 5.2% en una sola sesión el 1 de marzo, al tocar los US$5,246/oz, ya que los mercados buscaban activos de refugio seguro. Newmont, el mayor productor de oro del mundo, ha visto sus reservas efectivamente revaluadas a estos precios.
Está al alza junto con la ganancia anual del 24% del oro hasta la fecha, y sus costos de sostenimiento total permanecen en gran medida fijos.
No obstante, los mineros de oro se vendieron bruscamente el 4 de marzo, y Newmont cayó casi 8% en una sola sesión, ya que un desapalancamiento más amplio del riesgo afectó a las renta variable de metales preciosos.
El stock se ha recuperado desde entonces, pero la volatilidad sigue siendo alta. Para los inversionistas de mayor duración, los analistas señalan que las jurisdicciones mineras “seguras” como Canadá, Australia y Nevada están ordenando nuevas primas a medida que la inestabilidad de Oriente Medio eleva el valor del suministro geopolíticamente seguro.
Qué ver
- Si el oro puede aguantar más de US$5,000/oz.
- Un conflicto prolongado podría acelerar un ciclo de M&A en mineros de oro junior.
- Un alto el fuego o un evento amplio de desapalancamiento de la equidad como riesgo principal a monitorear.
6. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)
Lockheed Martin alcanzó un nuevo máximo histórico de 676.70 dólares el 3 de marzo, un aumento de más del 4% durante el día. Sus cazas F-35, municiones guiadas de precisión, sistemas THAAD y artillería de cohetes HIMARS son fundamentales para la campaña aérea en curso.
El Departamento de Defensa de Estados Unidos se está moviendo para reponer las reservas de municiones, y la ambición declarada de Trump de elevar el presupuesto de defensa de Estados Unidos a 1,5 billones de dólares para 2027 agrega un viento de cola estructural a más largo plazo más allá del conflicto inmediato.
Las acciones de defensa están subiendo en medio de la clásica fijación de precios de riesgo geopolítico, pero los inversores deben tener en cuenta que el flujo contractual real tarda tiempo en traducirse en ganancias, y las valoraciones ya reflejan un optimismo considerable.
Qué ver
- El ritmo de las órdenes de reposición de municiones del Departamento de Defensa de Estados Unidos.
- La rapidez con la que gana el contrato se traduce en un crecimiento del backlog.
Principales acciones de defensa a tener en cuenta: ganadores y perdedores de Irán
7. Barrick Gold (NYSE: ORO)
Barrick está siguiendo la racha histórica del oro junto a Newmont, con las acciones subidas bruscamente en lo que va de año. Se encuentra en una capitalización bursátil de aproximadamente 78 mil millones de dólares estadounidenses y está reportando proyecciones récord de flujo de caja libre, ya que sus costos de mantenimiento total se mantienen muy por debajo de los precios al contado actuales.
Al igual que Newmont, experimentó una fuerte venta en una sola sesión de más del 8% durante el evento más amplio de desapalancamiento del 4 de marzo, antes de recuperarse parcialmente.
Las empresas de regalías y streaming como Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) están siendo favorecidas por algunos inversores como una forma más protegida contra la inflación de acceder al oro al alza, dada su menor exposición a los costos operativos. Pero Barrick sigue siendo uno de los mineros de oro que cotizan en bolsa más grandes del mundo, con ganancias que son muy sensibles a los cambios en el precio del oro.
Qué ver
- La capacidad del oro para mantener por encima de US$5,000/oz.
- Cualquier Barrick se mueve hacia adquisiciones de mineros junior.
- Inflación de costos de energía, ya que el aumento de los precios de los combustibles podría comenzar a exprimir los márgenes operativos de los mineros.
In a time when you consumers could potentially be feeling domestic budgets tighten up, by the result of surging high inflation and rise in prices of commodities, you would be forgiven to be receiving the news that some of the biggest oil companies in the world, have acquired record profits with some skepticism, you would even question if these companies are acting in the best interests of its consumers instead of their shareholders? That’s the question that the Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) made, when he wrote to four major oil companies today demanding answers for how they are using their record high profits, and what – if anything – each company is doing to alleviate peoples’ pain at the pump. The letters come as drivers continue to bear the burden of higher-than-average fuel costs at the same time as the four major oil companies announced quarterly earnings of nearly $50 billion combined.
Exxon alone reported a profit of $17.9 billion – the highest quarterly profit reported by any oil company in history – while Chevron reported $11.6 billion, Shell reported $11.47 billion, and BP reported $8.45 billion ( USD ). The heat seems to be coming from all angles at the minute with various diplomats chipping in, back in June, president Joe Biden singled out Exxon for criticism, saying: Why don’t you tell them what Exxon’s profits were this year? This quarter?
Exxon made more money than God this year. Energy analysts at SP Angel says: The five remaining Majors (Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP & Total) have announced c.$59bn in 2Q22 profits, up almost 100% y/y, and returned c.45% of this to shareholders during the quarter. Based on their aggregate $1.1 trillion market cap, this quarter would represent an implied annualised profit margin in excess of 20%.
Some however have a more pragmatic approach and advise that the sector has been haemorrhaging money the last few years, a clampdown on pollution, a focus on a greener future and investment in renewable energy have curtailed some of the industries profits. Consider that in the past 10 years, major oil and gas companies suffered tremendous losses in 2014, 2015, and 2020. In fact, in 2020 the five integrated supermajors (i.e., “Big Oil”) – ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and Total – lost $76 billion.
Oil prices plunged into negative territory in 2020. Were the oil companies feeling especially generous then? ExxonMobil for example doesn’t set oil prices.
They are set in the market by how much people are willing to pay, just like with Apple stock. U.S. oil companies are price takers, not price makers. Yes, speculators have an influence, just as they do with Apple stock.
Even OPEC and Russia don’t control oil prices, although they do have tremendous influence relative to ExxonMobil. If ExxonMobil decided to produce less oil to drive the price up, it just hurts ExxonMobil because OPEC and Russia can easily make that up. But if OPEC and Russia decide to produce less oil, there isn’t much the rest of the world can do to make that up.
This is a particularly unique asset class and one which investors could access in different ways, you could trade the spot price of US and UK oil also known as WTI and BRENT oil respectfully, you could directly buy or sell shares in these companies or invest in ETFs which have exposure to energy companies. If you would want to be a position to take advantage of these companies’ profits and the price action movement which follows it? Visit us here at GO Markets where you have a choice between trading the spot price as an CFD or acquiring shares through our share portfolio service.
Sources: Forbes, The Guardian, mirror.co.uk, https://energycommerce.house.gov/
Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) reported its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Monday. One of the world’s largest gold producers reported revenue of $2.874 billion vs. $1.178 billion expected. The Canadian company reported earnings per share of $0.24 per share for Q2, also beating analyst estimate of $0.23 per share. ''A stronger Q2 performance across the portfolio has kept Barrick on course to achieve its annual gold and copper production guidance while continuing to progress its key growth projects.'' ''Gold production for the quarter was higher than Q1 at 1.04 million ounces — driven mainly by Carlin and Turquoise Ridge in Nevada, Veladero in Argentina, and Bulyanhulu and North Mara in Tanzania — and is expected to grow further in the second half of the year.
Copper production came to 120 million pounds.'' ''A dividend of $0.20 per share was declared for the quarter on the back of the strong operating performance and net cash of $636 million. During the quarter, Barrick repurchased $182 million in shares under the $1 billion share buyback scheme introduced earlier this year,'' the company wrote in a press release. Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) chart The stock price rose on Monday, up by around 5% at $16.27 per share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -4.18% 3 months -24.29% Year-to-date -14.37% 1 year -20.87% Barrick Gold price targets Barclays $25 Jefferies $24 UBS $34 Deutsche Bank $35 Credit Suisse $22 Barrick Gold Corporation is the 608 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $29.08 billion. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported its Q2 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. The American biotechnology company posted results that beat expectations, sending the stock higher at the open. The company reported revenue of $4.749 billion for the quarter vs. $4.097 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $5.24 per share vs. $4.58 per share estimate. "Today's earnings represent a strong second quarter performance, with $10.8 billion in revenue for the first half of the year. We continue to have advance purchase agreements for expected delivery in 2022 of around $21 billion of sales. Given our strong financial position and commercial momentum, we are announcing today that the Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program for $3 billion," Stéphane Bancel, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Despite the slowing economy and challenges in the biotech industry, Moderna is in a unique position: a platform to drive scale and speed in research of new medicines, a strong balance sheet with $18 billion of cash and an agile, mission-driven team of over 3,400 people and growing.
We will continue to invest and grow as we have never been as optimistic about Moderna's future. Right now, we have four infectious disease vaccines in Phase 3 trials, and later this year, we expect important data from proof-of-concept studies in rare diseases and immuno-oncology. Our teams are actively working to prepare these new product launches to help patients and drive growth.
This is an exciting time for Moderna as we continue to see significant scientific and business momentum," Bancel concluded. Moderna Inc. (MRNA) chart The stock was up by around 14% on Wednesday at $187.11 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +16.71% 3 Month +20.11% Year-to-date -26.68% 1 Year -55.56% Moderna price targets SVB Leerink $77 Piper Sandler $214 Morgan Stanley $199 Deutsche Bank $155 UBS $221 B of A Securities $180 Moderna is the 180 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $74.57 billion.
You can trade Moderna Inc. (MRNA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Moderna Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Todays RBA policy meeting is expected by most analysts to result in a 50bp hike as the bank tries to play catch up and get on top of elevated inflation figures. The slightly lower Q2 CPI figures released last week has seen futures markets price out what was earlier feared could be a 75bp supersized move, a 50bp hike would see the bank able to respond further in September should the Wage price index data due on 17 August show an alarming increase in wage costs. A 50bp hike today will bring the cash rate up to 1.85% which means we would be looking at least a further 65bp of hikes coming to bring the cash rate to the neutral level of 2.5% indicated by RBA governor Lowe at the last RBA policy meeting.
Currently August rate futures are trading at an implied yield of 1.76%, pricing in a rise of 41bp which indicates traders are giving around an 80% chance of a 50bp hike. Bond traders are rarely wrong when this much is priced in so I expect a 50bp move today with the accompanying statement giving clues to Septembers meeting where it’s looking so far as a toss up between 25 or 50bp. Expected AUD reaction If a 50bp hike is announced, the most likely course in the short term for the AUD will be an initial spike up due to the markets only pricing in 80%, then volatility as the algos read the statement, and more volatility as humans get through it.
Followed by a sustained move in either direction depending on how markets re-price after digesting what the RBA has released. Keep an eye on our Twitter page for instant reaction to the RBA announcement Also please join us on our live webinar of the RBA meeting and market reaction, register at the link below RBA Live Webinar
PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) announced its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. The US financial technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion in Q2, topping Wall Street estimate of $6.778 billion. Earnings per share also beat analyst estimates for the quarter at $0.93 per share vs. $0.87 per share estimate. ''Our second quarter results were solid with currency neutral revenue and non-GAAP earnings growth exceeding expectations.
We continue to gain share as we execute across our key strategic initiatives, even as we drive operational efficiency across our business.'' Dan Schulman, President and CEO of PayPal said in a press release after the latest results. PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) chart Shares of PayPal were up by 1.20% at the close of trading on Tuesday $89.63. The stock rose by around 11% after better than expected Q2 results.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +20.47% 3 Month -1.19% Year-to-date -52.47% 1 Year -67.23% PayPal price targets Berenberg $145 Oppenheimer $101 Keybanc $100 Wells Fargo $97 JP Morgan $112 JMP Securities $100 RBC Capital $92 Piper Sandler $93 Truist Securities $80 Credit Suisse $95 Morgan Stanley $129 PayPal is the 118 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $103.79 billion. You can trade PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: PayPal Holding Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) reported its Q2 financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. World’s third largest pharmaceutical company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $27.742 billion in Q2 (up 47% year-over-year) vs. $25.487 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $2.04 per share (up by 92% year-over-year) vs. $1.72 per share estimate. Dr. Albert Bourla, Chairman and CEO commented on the latest results: ''In multiple meaningful ways, we made significant progress this quarter on our strategies to bring value to our patients and shareholders, while also making commitments to prioritize the broader needs of the world, including those of the environment and our most vulnerable populations.
For example, we set an ambitious goal for ourselves to achieve the Net-Zero Standard for greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, ten years ahead of the timeline described in the standard. We also launched an initiative to help bring all of our current and future patented medicines and vaccines to the 1.2 billion people living in 45 lower-income countries around the world at not-for-profit prices, a first in the industry.'' ''Even while launching these initiatives to support a healthier, more equitable world, we remain equally committed to strong financial execution on behalf of our shareholders. In the second quarter, we recorded the largest amount of quarterly sales in our history.
We also presented potentially best-in-class data for etrasimod and announced the proposed strategic acquisition of Biohaven, both of which are closely tied to our purpose: Breakthroughs that change patients’ lives,'' Dr. Bourla concluded. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) chart Despite beating Wall Street expectations for Q2, shares of Pfizer were down by around 1% at $50.98 per share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -2.82% 3 Month +0.87% Year-to-date -13.72% 1 Year +19.07% Pfizer price targets Morgan Stanley $49 Wells Fargo $55 Citigroup $57 B of A Securities $70 Goldman Sachs $51 Pfizer Inc. is the 27 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $285.76 billion. You can trade Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pfizer Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap