Noticias del mercado & perspectivas

Last night the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England kept rates on hold, which was expected. The CPI data came out worst than expected but no big surprises. We also had the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which was much better than expected at 4.7.

As to what was expected at 1.1, so it was a good strong figure. Unemployment came out a bit worse than expected at 277k. Now European and US stocks had a very good rebound last night off lows.

So the US 30 bounced off its support line at 17470 and it is looking like it could be a possible reversal point but we need more confirmation. This is due to a Brexit figure coming out suggesting the stay camp had a lead. This had a very big impact on Gold.

Watch our full report by clicking play on the video below.

We have seen a quiet recovery for Pound Sterling in the absence of any negative headlines. Add to this some rambunctious tweets from President Trump weakening the Dollar and the GBPUSD pair is tip-toeing upwards, shrugging off the recent dip below 1.30 as nothing more than a temporary blip. It is these sudden blips or brief recoveries in Cable that leave traders scratching their heads and pondering the now tiresome question, "Is this Brexit related?".

The short answer is that it is just too difficult to dissect the Brexit fundamentals, mainly due to a lack of clarity surrounding negotiations. I guess you could argue that the longer-term drop in the Pound could be a sign that the market has already begun pricing in a degree of uncertainty, but it's more likely that nobody truly knows the outcome. Whatever happens, the technical picture for GBPUSD suggests we may be in for a continued move down unless something drastically changes the overall market sentiment.

A Look At The Charts First, we will visit GBPUSD on the daily timeframe using the Point & Figure method, as I believe it provides us with a reasonable downside target. (GBPUSD – Daily) As shown, a bearish resistance line formed around the 1.36 mark which put us firmly in a downtrend. It was a bold move south from the 1.44 highs and shows signs that the bears are in control longer-term. Price collapsing through the 130.50 support level was significant as it had failed on three previous attempts.

Assuming the weight of this trend continues, the chart suggests 1.28 as the next major area of support. Given we reached as low as 129.60 last week, it appears this level could be within reach in the coming weeks. Alternatively, a bullish move towards 1.33 would require us to reassess the latest trend, and anything above this region has the potential to be a minefield of choppy resistance.

On the daily Ichimoku chart below, we see a great example of this. Note the thickness of the cloud above 1.33, although not impenetrable, it will likely be gather upward momentum. (GBPUSD -Daily) Perhaps the most precise view of Brexit's progress when it comes to the value of Sterling can be seen in the EURGBP pairing. (EURGBP – Daily) The EURGBP daily chart highlights Brexit's indecision or lack of clarity as reflected in this longer-term range. Since October last year, we have yet to see a final move from either the Pound or the Euro.

Euro Winning The Race To Break First One thing I would point out is that the Euro has its nose in front regarding strength against the Sterling. The latest price is trading well-above the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) which is a bullish signal. We can also see the Euro gaining much ground over the past month against its counterpart.

Any continuation of this move would make 0.90 a critical level to watch. Remaining Focused In A Sleepy Market There is always a tendency to become complacent when currencies have been trading in a long-term range, or when political campaigns survive well past their use by date, polluting the fundamentals. Trading can become less exciting, and we start to assume that the status quo will remain.

In this case however, it is worth keeping tabs on the Pound Sterling, as once Brexit is resolved one way or another, we could see some considerable shifts in the market whilst as those on the sidelines are caught napping. Adam Taylor CFTe GO Markets This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

As a trader, you’ve probably found that having the right trading plan plays a significant role in your trading success. A basic trading plan should tell you what, when and how much to trade. It should also have specific instructions on when to close out your trades.

As traders, we all need a well thought out trading plan to navigate our way through the turbulent waters of financial markets, with the added benefit of having something to hang on to when we’re in the middle of a trade. Devising a trading plan needs detailed analysis and careful consideration. Unfortunately, we are not able to go through how to develop a complete trading plan in a short article such as this.

However, we are going to discuss some fundamental points to assist anyone who already has a trading plan or is in the process of developing one, helping to make sure it includes these minimum standards. 1. A trading plan that suits your character In any trading plan lies a trading philosophy that determines the overarching framework. The trading philosophy represents your beliefs about the markets.

For example, it shows whether you believe in short-term technical trades, or if you think success can be achieved by making long-term fundamental trades. It shows if you are a trend trader looking to move with the flow of the market, or if you are contrarian in nature and are looking for opportunities to go against the others. Regardless of the trading philosophy you choose, our suggestion is to make sure that it A) is proven and valid, and B) suits your personality.

If the trading philosophy does not suit your character and the way you look at the markets, you will inevitably deviate from your plan and potentially put yourself in a difficult situation, both financially and psychologically. Once you are confident that your trading philosophy is appropriately reflected in your trading plan, your plan should be capable of delivering and managing desired trading opportunities in the context of your trading philosophy. To achieve this, you need to make sure all the below requirements are met as a bare minimum. 2.

Your trading plan should be bias-free Biases occur because we have pre-set ideas in our minds that stop us from making objective decisions. This problem lies within human nature and is the result of our emotional and cognitive limitations. Within the long list of biases that exist, there are two which are the most harmful to many traders: confirmation bias and hindsight bias.

Confirmation bias is when we systematically look for what confirms our prior beliefs and ignore most evidence that challenges our set preconceptions. An excellent example of this bias is when we are trying to ascertain a simple breakout strategy by looking at a chart, a strategy used by many traders to trade the news. If the market keeps going in the direction of the breakout, we gladly count it as a success (after the fact), but if it fails — that is, it reverses its course after the breakout — we call it a Bull/Bear Trap and forget about the failure which has just happened.

By renaming the model, we have shifted our attention from a failed breakout strategy to a now successful Bull/Bear Trap! Under the influence of the confirmation bias, we are likely to pursue trading patterns which otherwise would have had little to no merit. This bias makes us derive conclusions that we’d like to see, instead of seeing what’s actually happened in reality.

The second most crucial bias traders face is the hindsight bias. Hindsight bias is when we look at a chart and find ourselves counting easy trades that would have worked well in the past. It is the moment that you go “it was an obvious head and shoulder” after seeing what had happened afterwards.

This bias comes from our tendency to distort our judgment towards the successful event. If you are given a set of questions about uncertain events (i.e. is the market going to consolidate, trend, reverse etc…) and the correct answer at the same time, it is very likely that you would distort your analysis to conclude in line with the correct answer, as if it really was obvious. Hindsight bias makes trading look easy, and can trick you into believing in trading rules and your ability to forecast – either of which may not be accurate.

If your trading plan has seemingly worked well on historical data but is failing to deliver desired results in real time, then it may be suffering from the above biases. Biases must be removed from your trading plan in order for it to be objective and testable. 3. Your trading plan should be objective An objective trading plan can enable traders of different market views to arrive at the same trading decision.

It has enough details and instructions that it takes any confusion out of trades and leaves no room for personal judgment. For example, a good trading plan does not allow traders to draw any trend lines they see fit, but instead, it dictates the trend line which is appropriate to be drawn. It has as many detailed guidelines as possible to stop traders from improvising. 4.

Your trading plan should be testable The best way to make sure your trading plan is objective and bias-free is to convert it into a set of clear trading rules and let a computer test the trading plan for you. This is called backtesting. By using a computer to do the testing, you are essentially removing human emotions and biases from the equation.

Often during the backtest, you will get a much better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of your trading plan. The downside to backtesting is that it is not easy (it requires coding), and validating a backtested result requires some maths and statistical skills to avoid being trapped by the backtest itself. However, this is still one of the better and cleaner ways to ascertain the validity of your trading system. 5.

Information about the market you are trading The trading plan must hold enough historical information about the performance of the patterns and behaviours of markets you are looking to trade. Whilst the type of the information required depends on the trading strategy, below are a few suggestions that we think should be present in any trading plan that is based on intraday charts: Average size and duration of price swings per trading session Average range per trading session Times of major turning points per trading session Correlations between various trading sessions Historical reactions of the currency to news announcements Important pivots and trends Technical indicators that have worked best over recent history Historical reaction to the session opening and closing times Volatilities per trading session (this can be used to set dynamic stop losses) Intraday correlation with other markets The above should be modified based on your trading strategy. Note that the more you can do to add to the list above, the more confidence you can have in your trading plan. 6.

A solid risk management plan Many of us believe that “stop losses” are the same as risk management. The truth is, stop losses are an essential part of a risk management plan, but are only an element of appropriate risk management. A good risk management plan should have three parts: Tradable instruments: Sometimes you may need to leave a specific currencies/indices out of your tradeable universe just because they can’t justify the risks you will have to take to trade them.

On the other hand, you may at times need to add a few instruments to your universe in order to reduce your risk and maximise your return. You should be able to refer to your risk management plan for these types of questions. Trading size: Your risk management plan should be able to tell how much to trade each time.

It must have a mechanism in place to make sure one or two bad trades do not impact the integrity of your account. Stop losses: Your risk management plan should make sure that your stop losses suit the trading strategy you’re pursuing. For example, a trend trading system may require having close stop losses, whereas this might not be the case for a mean-reverting strategy.

Stop losses should be adaptable to market changes and should be backtested and validated during the testing process. Conclusion: Trading plans are vital for trading success. They have many parts which should be carefully designed and tested.

We appreciate that contemplating all the above points can be challenging and time consuming, however you will become more confident in your trading as you will have in place a structured and improved trading plan.

South Africa Update 8 th August 2017, the day president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, which made sure that he will maintain power of one of the biggest economies in the African continent. It is worth noting that it was the eighth vote of no-confidence that Zuma has survived since being in charge. About Jacob Zuma Name: Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma Born: 12 April 1942 Birthplace: Nkandla, South Africa Political part: African National Congress Jacob Zuma, who has been involved in corruption allegations since being elected as the president of South Africa in 2009, survived the vote by a majority of 198 votes to 177 after the vote was called by the Democratic Alliance party who accused Zuma of suppressing democracy.

Even though the motion was defeated, it might still have an impact on the party which currently leads South Africa. Unlike the previous no-confidence votes, the latest vote was held anonymously and there were suggestions it could reach 50 votes of no-confidence from the Zuma’s African National Congress party, which is the number required to pass the motion. Instead 24 members of his part voted against their leader, around 12 others refrained or failed to show up to the vote which would suggest further unrest within the party further down the line.

Many have suggested that Zuma will not last until 2019, which is when the next general election takes place. Financial Markets The South African Rand weakened against the US Dollar after President Jacob Zuma survived a no-confidence which could have ended his administration of the African nation. The decline was a big turnaround for the Rand which was the best performing major currency on earlier in the week.

Despite the result, it is unlikely to cause a major weakness as the result was largely priced in before the vote took place. USD/ZAR By: Klavs Valters GO Markets

NZDCAD - Daily To begin with, let’s take a look at the NZDCAD. Admittedly not the liveliest minor pair but in this instance, I think it is worth a mention. On the daily time frame, we can see the price is hovering around the critical support zone of 0.8850, an area that has been tested three times already this year but has failed to mount any significant challenges to the downside.

The latest candle suggests the bulls are attempting to regain control and we may see moves up to re-test previous areas of resistance. A potential catalyst for a bounce is lurking within the RSI indicator which shows NZDCAD heading into oversold territory. Upside targets start at 0.90 before testing the previous high of 0.9225.

Should the 0.8850 regions become unstuck, evidence of previous support is around last December’s lows of 0.87 EURUSD - Daily Not a great deal to discuss for the pair during this period of consolidation. However, it is interesting to see how price action is responding to the lower levels of the Ichimoku cloud shown above. Notice several recent attempts under the cloud before causing temporary reversals each time.

All the other indicators on this daily chart including the lagging Chikou Span (purple line) are bearish. At this point, we could see price retrace back to the previous low of 1.15080 before resuming an upward trajectory longer-term. I say this tentatively because if you look at the weekly chart, the price has not closed above the 200 EMA for the past seven weeks.

USOIL- Daily Lastly, without delving into the fundamental drivers of the commodity, displayed is the strong uptrend we have witnessed during the July to September period last year. Technically speaking, we require at least three points of reference to validate these lines, so confirmation is pending. There are also two weekly pivots in the region of 72.00 which could be the next port of call for the price of oil.

Above here, we are likely to see 74.00 tested as well. I think the point and figure chart below displays this more clearly. We have a bullish support line that remains steadfast, and the price is edging upwards to re-touch the 74.00 mark.

In both charts, it would seem 68.00 is the level to watch before revising the overall trend. It is also worthy of a downside target in the interim. By Adam Taylor CFTe This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.

They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Have you spotted something unusual happening with the Japanese Yen? With the likes of protectionism dominating global headlines, the Yen is weakening amid broader risk aversion which is out of character for the currency. A Confidence crisis among Asian markets You have to wonder if the currency is absorbing some of the inherent uncertainty brought about by various negotiations in the region or whether there is something else at play?

Historically, we would expect to see signs of strength returning to the Yen in the USDJPY pair but so far we have not seen a great deal. Looking at the Daily charts below, evidence of bullish activity is rife. We see price action firmly in an uptrend above the longer-term moving averages and posting positive gains for July.

USDJPY – Daily At this stage, the chart suggests we might see a change in direction given the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is quite overbought, but it is hard to give this idea much validity in contrast with the other indicators. I suspect any sudden shift to the downside could see the weekly pivot level of 111.80 become a potential target. Alternatively, should the Dollar hold firm, it may struggle to break the 114.00 level as this area has proved somewhat resilient over the past year.

Not all the Yen crosses appear weak Ignoring the Dollar, let's take a peek at the AUDJPY cross as there could be an opportunity to go long Yen after all. Notice that we are approaching the top of a range on the daily and price action appears trapped in a sideways move. This range extends between the 84.50 and 81.00 levels, and with the price now touching 83.50 we're not too far away.

AUDJPY - Daily Has this pair found a ceiling? The 84.50 level is crucial as it marks the most recent high. It was last challenged in June but was short-lived; only one day to be exact.

This swift failed attempt suggests any further attempts may result in the same. Also, the weakness of the previous day's candles makes it appear the bulls are either fading or somewhat indecisive. This clue might be the turning point at which the pair gains some momentum in the opposite direction once again finding those support levels of 82.00/81.00.

We cannot get carried away though. As mentioned, the Japanese Yen is acting out of character as of late so we must not rule out the possibility of a further rally. Past 84.50 the next pocket of resistance appears to be at 85.50.

A quick glance at the hourly chart also highlights the willingness of the bulls to jump back in at any time. Look at how the price rebounded off the weekly pivot and followed through to the upside in the short-term. AUDJPY – Hourly Faith as a safe-haven restored?

Of course, many traders will still consider the Japanese Yen as a safer place to invest during times of turmoil. And I think Japan's government will take action to help relieve concerns. Only yesterday Japan signed a free-trade deal with the EU which is an enormous partnership and will go a long way to squash some of those fears.

We will have to wait and see in the coming weeks if the currency can restore its prowess as a safe-haven asset. Adam Taylor CFTe GO Markets This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.