Noticias del mercado & perspectivas

WTI Crude oil got off to a flyer on Monday open as news broke of conflict in the Middle East saw a hefty risk premium being priced in fueled by fears of supply disruptions. It seems some of those fears have abated and along with a massive crude inventory build of almost 13mm barrels reported by API on Wednesday, a classic gap fill chart pattern has formed on USOUSD after a steep drop, with USOUSD currently trading at 83.37, down markedly from the conflict spike high of 87.65 in Monday’s session. Geopolitical risk will be very much at the forefront of Oil traders’ minds with an escalation and/or expansion of the current conflict very much having the ability to cause high volatility in oil, we do also have some important technical levels and scheduled economic announcements to watch for the remainder of the week’s trading.

Chart Technicals: Monday’s gap open found resistance at the upward trend line, which up until early October has been a significant support level, to the upside this will be the next technical level to watch, around the 87.225 zone, a retake of this trendline support could then see USOUSD next testing the 23.6 fib level at 88.958 which had also offered support during September. To the downside Fridays low and the nearby 50% fib level at 81.333 will be the first major technical level, a break of this support zone will indicate a possible leg down to the 61.8 fib level around 76.867, which was also a swing low support level back in August. Along with further updates from the Middle East, tonight’s US CPI figure will also be important to watch, a low reading will cheer market participants that are banking on a less aggressive Federal Reserve, this will likely see risk assets rally, and Oil along with them as a less aggressive Fed will take the shackles off the US economy and have oil repricing for a more robust demand.

Global markets head into the new week with one eye on ongoing geopolitical pressures and one eye on US data and comments from Federal Reserve members as we come into the last week before the blackout period ahead of the November 2 FOMC meeting. Along with the geopolitical backdrop there is some key scheduled data this week the traders will be watching with keen interest. These are the markets I’ll be watching especially closely this week.

AUDUSD The Aussie had a tough week as risk sentiment soured somewhat in global markets, and an announcement of Chinese stimulus disappointing the market in its scope. AUDUSD did find good support at the November ’22 lows of 0.6280, a level which has now become key for AUDUSD bulls, a break here has a chart with fresh air until the major 0.62 support level. Aussie watchers this week have a talk by new RBA Governor Bullock and Australian Employment data to look forward to, along with some important data from the US including retail sales and unemployment claims.

Market sentiment will also play a part in the performance of the risk sensitive AUD. Gold Gold benefitted from its safe haven status, strongly rallying all of last week with XAUUSD finishing up around 5% for the week. There was a monster push higher on Friday, with a similar move in the Oil market as traders rushed to exit shorts before the weekend in both markets.

XAUUSD pushed up to its 50% Fib resistance level at 1940 on Friday, today in the APAC session we have seen a modest pullback as presumably some safe haven traders are unwinding longs. Key levels to watch this week will be the 1940 level to the upside, a break and hold here would point to a technical leg higher, to the downside, the 1905 Fib, mid-September lows and upper trend channel support level all pretty much line up and will be an important area of support if XAUUSD is to hold last week’s gains. Oil WTI Crude oil had a choppy and volatile week, pushed and pulled around by conflict in the Middle East and oil storage data.

A gap open higher on Monday retraced during the week until, like Gold, a monster move higher on Friday with no-one wanting to be short going into the weekend and the unknowns of the continued conflict. After recently breaking the medium term trendline that had been in play since July. USOUSD has found this level now become resistance at around the 88.10 USD a barrel level and is shaping to be a key level to the upside.

To the downside the gap fill support level at 83.20 will the support level to watch. Beyond the charts geopolitical events will also play a significant role in Oil price movements this week.

Bitcoin traders had some excitement in the session overnight, with some false news sending price rising over 7% in a few minutes. A tweet from a well-known crypto news website, Cointelegraph, stated that the SEC had approved a Bitcoin Spot ETF from BlackRock. Markets temporarily rallied off the back of this news, until it was quickly squashed by BlackRock who confirmed it was false and their Spot ETF was still under review from the SEC.

Price quickly cleared all the gains, however, BTC is still trading up over 4% for the daily session. Technically, BTC is still trending in the right direction, with price reclaiming a diagonal trendline that was broken a few days ago. Currently sitting at the midpoint of a large range that has been holding firm since March.

If the momentum continues, we could see price moving up towards the next major resistance level around 30k USD. On the bearish side, there appears to be a large Head & Shoulders pattern forming. If we see the price continue to rise and then start falling away before taking out the July highs, there could be a good case for the Head & Shoulders pattern to play out.

Whatever way we see the price move in the following weeks, we could be in for some volatility as the markets appear to be reacting heavily to news events. With a number of US Fed officials speaking this week, we could see some further volatility as the markets try and predict what is in store for the US economy.

Jobless claims refer to a weekly statistic published by the U.S. Department of Labor, indicating the number of individuals applying for unemployment insurance benefits. These claims are categorised into two groups: initial claims, encompassing first-time filers, and continuing claims, representing those who were already receiving unemployment benefits but remain unemployed.

These figures serve as significant leading indicators, offering insights into the employment landscape and overall economic well-being. They provide valuable data about the state of employment and the economy, making them a crucial tool for assessing economic health. Key Takeaways Measurement of Unemployment: Jobless claims indicate the number of people unemployed at a specific time.

Initial Jobless Claims: These represent new applicants for unemployment benefits who have recently become unemployed. Continuing Jobless Claims: This category includes individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits due to ongoing unemployment. Economic Significance: A rising number of jobless claims, indicating more people willing to work but unable to find jobs, is often a concerning sign for the economy.

Volatility and Monitoring: Weekly jobless claims can fluctuate significantly. Therefore, economists often track the moving four-week average to provide a more stable and accurate representation of unemployment trends over time. Understanding Jobless Claims Jobless claims, reported weekly by the Department of Labor (DOL), play a crucial role in macroeconomic analysis.

This report tracks the number of new individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the previous week, providing a valuable insight into the U.S. job market. When more people file for unemployment benefits, it generally indicates a decrease in employment, and vice versa. Investors rely on this report to assess the country's economic performance.

However, due to its weekly reporting frequency, jobless claims data can be highly volatile. To mitigate this volatility, analysts often focus on the moving four-week average of jobless claims, which provides a more stable trend over time. The report is released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

ET and has the potential to significantly impact financial markets. Notably, during the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, weekly jobless claims in the U.S. surged to unprecedented levels. Businesses reduced payrolls due to social distancing measures, leading to historic numbers of Americans filing for unemployment benefits between mid-March and April 30th 2020, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St.

Louis. The Impact of Jobless Claims on the Market As previously mentioned, initial jobless claims signify the onset of unemployment, whereas continued claims data reflects the number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits. Notably, continued claims data becomes available one week after initial claims are reported.

Consequently, initial claims tend to have a more substantial impact on financial markets. Financial analysts often integrate their estimations of the jobless claims report into their market predictions. If the weekly jobless claims release deviates significantly from consensus estimates, it can trigger market movements, either upward or downward.

Typically, these movements align inversely with the report's direction. For instance, a decrease in initial jobless claims often leads to a market rally, whereas an increase in these claims might result in a market decline. The Initial Jobless Claims Report garners considerable attention due to its simplicity and the fundamental premise that a robust job market reflects a healthy economy.

The underlying idea is straightforward: more employed individuals equate to higher disposable income within the economy, fostering increased personal spending and bolstering both personal consumption and gross domestic product (GDP). Why Do Jobless Claims matter to Traders? The mid-month jobless claims report can trigger significant market reactions, especially if it diverges from other recent indicators.

For instance, if various indicators signal an economic slowdown, an unexpected decline in jobless claims might pause equity selling and even boost stock prices. This reaction often occurs when there isn't any other recent data available for analysis. Conversely, a positive initial jobless claims report might go unnoticed on a hectic news day amid Wall Street's activities.

Furthermore, jobless claims serve as essential inputs for creating various models and indicators. For instance, average weekly initial jobless claims form one of the ten components used in the Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Indicators. Is Jobless the Same as Unemployed?

As per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the labour force comprises both employed individuals and those seeking employment. Employed individuals have jobs, while the unemployed are those without jobs, actively searching for employment, and available for work. In summary, jobless claims represent the weekly count of individuals applying for unemployment insurance benefits due to their unemployment status.

This metric stands as a vital leading indicator, offering valuable insights into the overall economic health of a nation. The significance of jobless claims lies in their ability to reflect the prevailing economic conditions. When jobless claims are on the rise, it serves as a warning sign indicating a weakening economy.

This trend suggests that more people are losing jobs, potentially due to economic challenges or downturns in specific industries. Growing jobless claims can signify reduced consumer spending, increased financial strain on households, and a general lack of confidence in the job market. Conversely, a decline in jobless claims paints a positive picture, signalling an improving economy.

Decreasing jobless claims indicate that fewer individuals are filing for unemployment benefits, implying a stabilising job market. This trend can boost consumer confidence, encourage spending, and foster economic growth. Moreover, a decrease in jobless claims often aligns with increased hiring by businesses, reflecting a healthier labour market.

In essence, monitoring jobless claims provides policymakers, economists, businesses, and investors with valuable data to assess the economic landscape. These insights are instrumental in making informed decisions, shaping economic policies, and predicting future market trends. By understanding the fluctuations in jobless claims, stakeholders can adapt strategies, allocate resources effectively, and contribute to the overall stability and growth of the economy.

Therefore, the analysis of jobless claims remains an essential practice for anyone involved in economic forecasting, policy-making, or financial investments, serving as a key barometer for the economic well-being of a nation.

The USD has remained bid today heading into today’s pivotal US CPI where both the headline M/M and Y/Y figures are expected to show an increase over Julys readings. This is the last major inflation figure before next weeks FOMC meeting where the Fed is widely expected to hold rates (Fed Funds futures pricing in only a 7% chance of a 25bp hike). A beat on CPI today is unlikely to sway the rate hike odds much but it will cast doubt on any narrative that the Feds work on inflation is done.

A CPI coming inline with expectation or higher will likely see a reasonably hawkish FOMC statement and presser, where despite unchanged rates, the Fed may give a dot plot projection indicating one more hike this year. DXY has rallied in today’s session after yesterday’s whipsawing price action, with the upward trendline holding as support. US 10-year yields have also rallied to move towards the August highs as traders brace for a higher CPI and more hawkish Fed as a result, higher yields also a tailwind for the USD.

Headwinds for the DXY will be the 105+ resistance zone which has capped further gains in DXY for the last 12 months, also 10-year yields in the recent past finding a lot of resistance when over the 4% level.

Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) released Q3 results before the market open in the US on Thursday. Let’s take a look at how the Chinese company performed. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 19,396 (2022) Industry: Automotive Key people: Li Xiang (Chairman and CEO), Yanan Shen (President), Tie Li (CFO) The results World’s 12th largest automaker reported revenue of $4.749 billion for Q3 (up by 271.2% year-over-year), above analyst estimate of $4.581 billion.

EPS reported at $0.449 per share vs. $0.368 per share expected. The electric vehicle company delivered 105,108 cars in the previous quarter – up by 296.3% from the same period in 2022. Li Auto has delivered 284,647 vehicles so far this year.

CEO commentary "In response to the evolving market demand in the third quarter, we continued to strengthen synergies across production, supply, and sales, while enhancing our production capability. With these efforts, we achieved a number of breakthroughs across our delivery performance during the quarter, becoming China’s first emerging new energy automaker to reach the milestone of 500,000 cumulative deliveries. Each of our three Li L series models recorded over 10,000 monthly deliveries for three consecutive months since August, maintaining our position as the sales champion among SUVs and NEVs priced over RMB300,000 in China.

As we further expand our business scale, we will continue to maintain our profitability at a healthy level, while investing in research and development to propel the long-term growth of our business," Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, Li Xiang said in a press release to investors. The stock was down by around 2% on Thursday despite posting better-than-expected results. Shares of Li Auto are up by 118.68% in the past year at $38.28 a share.

Stock performance 1 month: +10.41% 3 months: -11.16% Year-to-date: +86.62% 1 year: +118.67% Li Auto price targets B of A Securities: $60 Barclays: $48 Citigroup: $54.3 HSBC: $36 Jefferies: $20.66 Li Auto Inc. is the 453rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $38.17 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Li Auto Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Benzinga, Macrotrends