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Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
Multi-Timeframe (MTF) analysis is not just about checking the trend on the daily before trading on the hourly; ideally, it involves examining and aligning context, structure, and timing so that every trade is placed with purpose.
When done correctly, MTF analysis can filter market noise, may help with timing of entry, and assist you in trading with the trending “tide,” not against it.
Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters
Every setup exists within a larger market story, and that story may often define the probability of a successful trade outcome.
Single-timeframe trading leads to the trading equivalent of tunnel vision, where the series of candles in front of you dominate your thinking, even though the broader trend might be shifting.
The most common reason traders may struggle is a false confidence based on a belief they are applying MTF analysis, but in truth, it’s often an ad-hoc, glance, not a structured process.
When signals conflict, doubt creeps in, and traders hesitate, entering too late or exiting too early.
A systematic MTF process restores clarity, allowing you to execute with more conviction and consistency, potentially offering improved trading outcomes and providing some objective evidence as to how well your system is working.
Building Your Timeframe Hierarchy
Like many effective trading approaches, the foundation of a good MTF framework lies in simplicity. The more complex an approach, the less likely it is to be followed fully and the more likely it may impede a potential opportunity.
Three timeframes are usually enough to capture the full picture without cluttering up your chart’s technical picture with enough information to avoid potential contradiction in action.
Each timeframe tells a different part of the story — you want the whole book, not just a single chapter.
Scalpers might work on H1-M15-M5, while longer-term traders might prefer H4-H1-H15.
The key is consistency in approach to build a critical mass of trades that can provide evidence for evaluation.
When all three timeframes align, the probability of at least an initial move in your desired direction may increase.
An MTF breakout will attract traders whose preference for primary timeframe may be M15 AND hourly, AND 4-hourly, so increasing potential momentum in the move simply because more traders are looking at the same breakout than if it occurred on a single timeframe only.
Applying MTF Analysis
A robust system is built on clear, unambiguous statements within your trading plan.
Ideally, you should define what each timeframe contributes to your decision-making process:
- Trend confirmed
- Structure validated
- Entry trigger aligned
- Risk parameters clear
When you enter on a lower timeframe, you are gaining some conviction from the higher one. Use the lower timeframe for fine-tuning and risk control, but if the higher timeframe flips direction, your bias must flip too.
Your original trading idea can be questioned and a decision made accordingly as to whether it is a good decision to stay in the trade or, as a minimum action, trail a stop loss to lock in any gains made to date.
Putting MTF into Action
So, if the goal is to embed MTF logic into your trade decisions, some step-by-step guidance may be useful on how to make this happen
1. Define Your Timeframe Stack
Decide which three timeframes form your trading style-aligned approach.
The key here is that as a starting point, you must “plant your flag” in one set, stick to it and measure to see how well or otherwise it works.
Through doing this, you can refine based on evidence in the future.
One tip I have heard some traders suggest is that the middle timeframe should be at least two times your primary timeframe, and the slowest timeframe at least four times.
2. Build and Use a Checklist
Codify your MTF logic into a repeatable routine of questions to ask, particularly in the early stages of implementing this as you develop your new habit.
Your checklist might include:
- Is the higher-timeframe trend aligned?
- Is the structure supportive?
- Do I have a valid trigger?
- Is risk clearly defined?
This turns MTF from a concept into a practical set of steps that are clear and easy to action.
3. Consider Integrating MTF Into Open Trade Management
MTF isn’t just for entries; it can also be used as part of your exit decision-making.
If your higher timeframe begins showing early signs of reversal, that’s a prompt to exit altogether, scale out through a partial close or tighten stops.
By managing trades through the same multi-timeframe approach that you used to enter, you maintain logical consistency across the entire lifecycle of the trade.
Final Action
Start small. Choose one instrument, one timeframe set, and one strategy to apply it to.
Observe the clarity it adds to your decisions and outcomes. Once you see a positive impact, you have evidence that it may be worth rolling out across other trading strategies you use in your portfolio.
Final Thought
Multi-Timeframe Analysis is not a trading strategy on its own. It is a worthwhile consideration in ALL strategies.
It offers a wider lens through which you see the market’s true structure and potential strength of conviction.
Through aligning context, structure, and execution, you move from chasing an individual group of candles to trading with a more robust support for a decision.
Australian CPI figures today see a rapid cooling in Aussie inflation, coming in at 5.6% y/y against an expected 6.1% and a big drop from April’s 6.8% shock to the upside. This saw a rapid re-pricing of rate hike odds at the next RBA meeting on July 4 th, with interbank futures signaling odds have dropped to 17% of a 25bp move, from 25% pre-CPI. Unsurprisingly a rapid fall in AUDUSD was also a consequence of this market repricing, after finding some support at the 50% retracement level of the June low to highs this week, AUDUSD pushed lower to test the 618% Fibonacci level before finding some buyers.
These two levels will be worth watching, whether AUDUSD can regain and again find support at the 50% retracement or that level now becomes resistance and puts the 61.8% retracement level in danger of giving way.
USD was firmly in the red in Tuesdays session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) having it’s largest drop since mid-July. A rally in DXY during the Asian and early European session dramatically reversed after big misses on the JOLTS report and consumer confidence saw a dovish repricing in rates markets and a risk-on back in charge. Stocks rallied and the Dollar tumbled throughout the rest of the session.
DXY hitting lows of 103.36, breaking through the minor R/S level of 103.60 after testing the major resistance zone of the May/June/August highs. DXY now sitting on its upward trendline which has been in play since mid-July, which so far has lent some support. Looking ahead today there will be more jobs data (ADP) and Prelim GDP for USD traders to navigate.
AUD, NZD and EUR were all firmer against the USD. High beta AUD and NZD were the clear outperformers while EUR saw similar gains, all benefitting from USD weakness and a risk-on environment as opposed to anything currency specific. AUD was also given an extra boost by gains in iron ore.
AUDUSD hit a high of 0.6487, testing last week’s highs and the resistance just below the psychological 0.6500 level. NZDUSD up to 0.5977 also pushing to the highs of its recent range. Ahead today a pivotal CPI figure out of Australia may see some of these levels tested.
EURUSD hit highs of 1.0891, retaking the support level at 1.0840 and looking to test the big figure at 1.09 to the upside. Eurozone inflation figures out of Germany and Spain released later today will be the main risk events for EUR traders. JPY rallied against the USD later in the session on the retreat of US Treasury yields after weak US data.
Earlier in the session though USDJPY breached the August highs resistance level to trade up to a high of 147.38 (which was its highest level since November) before the aforementioned weak US data and move lower in UST yields saw a dramatic reversal. BoJ intervention on the Yen still on the back of JPY traders’ minds. Today’s calendar has some decent risk events likely to cause volatility in FX markets, starting with Aussie CPI, then CPI readings from the Eurozone and topped off with GDP and more jobs data out of the US.
Despite runaway US treasury yields which saw 10-year yields hit their highest level since 2007, the USD was flat in Monday’s session as it seems improved risk sentiment and a technically overbought Dollar Index (DXY)held it in check. DXY traded within a tight range with a low of 103.13 and a high of 103.50, where it was again rejected at the major resistance set at the July and August to date highs. USD traders focus today will be on FedSpeak from Bowman, Goolsbee, and Barkin whose comments will be closely watched ahead of Jackson Hole later in the week.
EUR was the outperforming major currency, with EURUSD pushing hard to reclaim the psychological 1.09 level but failing to hold convincingly above. Another headline to hit the wires was HSBC giving a bullish take on the EUR "in part built on the idea of upside for the EUR from overly dovish rate expectations for the ECB". They noted that while headline inflation figures are cooling, core inflation is proving stickier.
JPY resumed its march lower on Monday, reversing its 2-day rally from late last week. The jump higher in US yields saw carry traders back in action taking the USDJPY back above 146.00 from lows of 145.15. A note from JP Morgan stated that they believe the MoF will not intervene in the FX market at around 145 level as they did previously, with JPM analysts believing the threshold level for BoJ intervention being around 150 level.
AUD and NZD saw marginal gains vs the USD with the Kiwi the lagging vs the Aussie after New Zealand trade figures showed a deficit of 1.1bln in July, vs the prior surplus of 9mln. AUDUSD reclaimed the big figure at 0.6400, AUDNZD holding above the key 1.0800 level. A quiet calendar ahead today for both AUD and NZD, with general market sentiment likely to be the main drivers in price action for the rest of the week.
The AUD/USD pair has had a tough month, falling relatively consistently since mid-July. This decline can be attributed to several factors, most notably the strengthening of the USD driven by the Federal Reserve's firm commitment to ‘higher for longer’ rates, aimed at taming inflation to meet target levels. Another contributing factor to the AUD's descent is the sluggish pace of China's economic recovery.
As China grapples with a gradual rebound, the demand for Australian exports, a crucial driver for the AUD, has been hampered. Despite the challenges, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains room for action in its ongoing battle against inflation. This leaves the door ajar for the possibility of further rate hikes, which could potentially be positive for the AUD.
From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair finds itself positioned at a critical support level. Having proven its resilience in late May as a support zone, traders will be watching to see if it will hold again. If this level fails, there is plenty of room to the downside for the pair, with the next major support level at around $0.62.
Key news events upcoming this week that could be a catalyst for the pair will be US Retail Sales on Tuesday and Aussie unemployment figures Thursday.
A -3.5% slide in AAPL stock price pre-market is seeing the tech giant looking to continue this weeks sell-off after a Bloomberg report that Chinese authorities plan to broaden iPhone restrictions to a number of state-owned companies and other government-affiliated entities. This comes after Wednesday saw the largest one day drop in AAPL stock in over month after the initial plans for the Chinese ban was reported by the Wall St Journal. The Chinese-US tech war seems to be escalating as China attempts to prop up it’s domestic chip makers in the face of US sanctions and reduce its reliance on Western technology, with AAPL an unwitting victim.
AAPL technical analysis: The pre-market currently is showing an AAPL open price of 176.50 a hefty 3.5% lower from yesterdays close of 182.91, this will see the price open below the key technical level of the 100 Day MA and making 8 day lows. Coming into play as well will be the support level of the August lows, after a down move started by a disappointing earnings report in early August. Another key level to the upside is the resistance level of the earnings gap fill, where a rally in AAPL stalled before this recent China induced sell-off.
As dire as the chart looks at the moment, there is some good news for AAPL bulls with some analysts seeing this sell-off as an overreaction as the Chinese ban will only effect 500,000 out of 45M iPhones after AAPL has seen massive share gains recently of the Chinese smartphone market. If we see support at and a hold of the post earnings August lows, a rebound in AAPL is certainly on the cards.
The recent resilience in AUDUSD, which has seen the pair bounce off and hold stubbornly above the 0.6400 major support level came to a dramatic end in today’s session. Risk aversion, disappointing PMI figures out of China and a hold in rates from the RBA all contributing to a break down in the exchange rate seeing AUDUSD break the recent support levels and hit its lowest level since November 2022. Looking at key levels to watch in AUDUSD the 0.6400 will be key in the short term, this is a major S/R level (as most big figures are in AUDUSD) a retake and hold of this level would cement the recovery in AUDUSD and likely a move higher to re-test the 0.6500 resistance level, however if this level is tested and is confirmed as a new resistance level a further move to the downside to test key support levels is a probability.
These key levels are: Daily trendline support around 0.6320 November 2022 lows 0.6275 Major support at the big 0.6200 figure. Also an RSI under 30, indicating an extreme oversold market, the RSI has been a good indicator of turning points in AUDUSD in the recent past. Key risk events ahead for AUD will be Australian Q2 GDP released on Wednesday, July’s Trade Balance on Thursday and Chinese CPI figures released on Saturday.
AUD traders will need to keep an eye on those key levels over these announcements.