Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
Los datos de inflación de Estados Unidos del miércoles son la pieza central de la semana, pero con el petróleo acercándose a máximos de siete meses, el sentimiento de Bitcoin (BTC) cambiando y el dólar australiano en máximos de tres años, los comerciantes tienen mucho que navegar en la próxima semana.
Datos rápidos
- La tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (febrero) es el evento binario clave para la fijación de precios de reducción de tasas y la dirección de la renta variable.
- El crudo Brent cotiza alrededor de US$82—84/BBL, cerca de máximos de siete meses, con una prima de riesgo geopolítico de 4 a 10 dólares gracias a las tensiones entre Irán y Ormuz.
- Bitcoin cotiza por encima de los 70.000 dólares al 6 de marzo, un posible cambio de tendencia si se mantiene a lo largo de la semana.
Estados Unidos: la inflación en foco
La lectura de inflación estadounidense del mes pasado mostró que los precios subieron 2.4% interanual, aún muy por encima de la meta de 2% de la Fed.
La tasa de inflación de febrero, que vence el miércoles, será examinada en busca de señales de que la traspaso de las tarifas o el aumento de los costos de la energía están haciendo que los precios vuelvan a subir, o si la lenta bajada sigue intacta.
La reunión del FOMC de marzo del 17 al 18 de marzo ahora tiene un precio de solo 4.7% de probabilidad de un recorte. Una impresión de inflación más alta de lo esperado esta semana podría potencialmente empujar aún más las expectativas de recorte de tasas.
Una lectura más suave abre la puerta a una nueva reducción de precios y un posible alivio en los activos de riesgo.
Fechas clave
- Tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (IPC de febrero): Miércoles 11 de marzo, 12:30 h (AEDT)
Monitorear
- La divergencia de inflación básica frente a la general como evidencia de traspaso arancelario en los precios de los bienes.
- Sensibilidad de rendimiento de tesorería a 2 y 10 años a la impresión.
- Dirección del USD y retarificación de FedWatch antes de la decisión del FOMC del 18 de marzo.
Aceite: elevado y sensible a los eventos
Actualmente, el Brent cotiza alrededor de US$83—85 por barril, con un rango de 52 semanas que abarca US$58,40 a US$85,12, lo que refleja el dramático movimiento desencadenado por el conflicto de Oriente Medio.
Analistas estiman que la prima de riesgo geopolítico ya horneada al petróleo en 4 a 10 dólares por barril, y los pronósticos promedio del Brent 2026 se han elevado a 63,85 dólares por bbl, frente a los 62,02 dólares de enero.
El Perspectiva Energética a Corto Plazo de la EIA pronostica que el Brent promediará $58/bbl en 2026, muy por debajo del precio spot actual.
La brecha entre el spot y la línea base del pronóstico podría ser un marco útil para los comerciantes esta semana: cualquier señal de desescalada de Oriente Medio podría cerrar rápidamente esa brecha.
Monitorear
- Desarrollos del Estrecho de Ormuz y cualquier señal diplomática de las conversaciones nucleares de Irán.
- Datos de inventario de petróleo semanal de EIA.
- El derribación del petróleo a las expectativas de inflación y si cambia la postura del banco central.
- Desempeño de la renta variable del sector energético en relación con el mercado en general.
Bitcoin: vigilancia del sentimiento
BTC ha estado intentando estabilizarse después de una brutal corrección del 53% en las últimas 17 semanas, alimentada por la escalada de tensiones geopolíticas y las renovadas preocupaciones arancelarias.
No obstante, ayer se vio un salto de 8% por encima de los 72,000 dólares, y el cripto “índice de miedo y codicia” saltó a 29 (miedo), arriba desde debajo de 20 (miedo extremo), donde lleva más de un mes sentado, lo que indica un posible cambio de sentimiento.
Una impresión de inflación estadounidense más fresca de lo esperado el miércoles podría proporcionar más combustible para la ruptura; una impresión caliente corre el riesgo de que BTC vuelva a estar por debajo del nivel de US$70,000 que acaba de recuperar.
Monitorear
- Inflación impresión reacción el miércoles como el macrocatalizador primario de la mudanza.
- Cualquier rotación a altcoins siguiendo la fuerza de BTC.
- Datos de entrada/salida de ETF como confirmación de participación institucional.
AUD/USD: El RBA de Hawkish se encuentra con vientos cruzados geopolíticos
El australiano cotiza cerca de máximos de más de tres años y se dirige a su cuarta ganancia mensual consecutiva, con un aumento de más del 6% en lo que va de año, lo que la convierte en la moneda del G10 de mejor desempeño en 2026.
El impulsor es una clara divergencia política. La gobernadora del RBA, Michele Bullock, señaló que la reunión de política de marzo está “viva” para un posible aumento de tasas, y advirtió que un choque en el precio del petróleo por las tensiones en Irán podría reavivar las presiones inflacionarias internas.
Los precios de mercado ahora sugieren alrededor de un 28% de posibilidades de una subida de 25 pb en la próxima reunión, mientras que la fijación de precios por completo se ajustará hasta mayo, y alrededor de un 75% de probabilidad de otro aumento a 4.35% para fin de año.
Esta lectura tensa, puesta en contra de una Fed en espera y que enfrenta una presión política dótica, crea un potencial viento de cola estructural para el australiano.
Monitorear
- Reacción del AUD/USD al dato de inflación estadounidense del miércoles.
- Probabilidad de alza de tasa del RBA reajuste de precios a lo largo de la semana.
- El mineral de hierro y los precios de las materias primas como impulsores secundarios del AUD.
- China demanda señales, dada la exposición exportadora de Australia.
The Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting today was supposed to be a done deal of another hold in rates, with futures markets pricing in an over 90% chance of that being the outcome. The RBA however, showing their determination to get an inflation rate still well outside their target band instead delivered a 25bp hike after last months pause, surprising the market and seeing a dramatic reaction in the Aussie dollar (pump) and equity markets. (dump) AUDUSD and ASX200 reaction: Adding to this was what was see as a hawkish statement accompanying the decision, helping to cement the original moves which look now to have some legs, likely seeing the AUDUSD break the 0.67 level this session. *RBA RAISES CASH RATE TARGET 25 BASIS POINTS TO 3.85% *RBA: SOME FURTHER TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY MAY BE REQUIRED *RBA SAYS RATE RISE TO HELP ANCHOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) announced third quarter fiscal 2023 before the opening bell in the US on Friday. World’s largest consumer goods company beat both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 101,000 (2021) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S.
Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $20.1 billion vs. $19.28 billion expected. EPS reported at $1.37 per share vs. analyst estimate of $1.323 per share.
CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 in what continues to be a very difficult cost and operating environment,'' Jon Moeller, CEO of Procter & Gamble said about the latest results in a press release. ''Our team’s strong execution of our strategies and our progress through three quarters enable us to raise our fiscal year outlook for sales growth and cash return to shareowners and maintain our guidance range for EPS growth despite continued cost and foreign exchange headwinds. We remain committed to our integrated strategies of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization structure. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum, and we’re confident they remain the right strategies to deliver balanced growth and value creation going forward,'' he concluded.
The latest results had a positive impact on the stock on Friday. Share price was up by around 3%, trading at around $156.44 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +6.58% 3 months: +9.38% Year-to-date: +3.18% 1 year: -3.02% Procter & Gamble price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $147 Berenberg Bank: $141 Evercore ISI: $160 Wells Fargo: $162 CFRA: $152 Procter & Gamble Company is the 20 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $369.12 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
Natural Gas price action has had an amazing two years, with the usually pretty boring commodity showing extreme volatility pushing it to all time highs before a dramatic collapse seeing it back where it started in 2020. Like all the energy complex, Oil being a good example, the start of the Covid panic saw wild price fluctuations as traders came to terms with lockdowns and the related slowdowns, followed by unprecedented Central Bank stimulus. But the real push higher in Natural Gas came at the start of the war in Ukraine and the loss of Russian Gas for European suppliers, with fears of a cold winter with a much constrained supply of gas seeing the price spike to all-time highs.
But instead of a long cold gas starved winter the northern hemisphere experienced higher-than-average temperatures which meant the gas supply crunch wasn’t as dire as feared which sent liquefied natural gas prices tumbling to pre covid levels from a record all-time high. With Natural gas back to historical support levels there is a technical and fundamental case for a move higher in the near future. From a technical perspective, on a daily chart we can see that Natural Gas has found strong support since February around the 2.09 level, an historic level it found support at before the pandemic as well, we can also wee a rounding bottom pattern forming on a daily chart, this is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns in technical analysis.
According to a recent interview with Bloomberg by Yukio Kani, the chairman and CEO of Jera Co which is the worlds largest buyer of LNG, he is expecting a price spike again in natural gas this year due to Chinese re-opening demand, unusually war Northern Hemisphere weather increasing energy demand for cooling purposes and increased import capacity in Europe and China. Certainly, a market worth watching going forward!
US technology giant Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) released the latest financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, after the market closed in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: April 4, 1975 Headquarters: Washington, United States Number of employees: 221,000 (2022) Industry: Information technology Key people: Satya Nadella (executive chairman and CEO), Brad Smith (vice chairman and president), Bill Gates (technical adviser) The results Microsoft reported revenue that beat analyst estimates at $52.857 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. $51.019 billion. Earnings per share also topped expectations at $2.45 per share (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $2.239 per share estimate.
Company commentary Satya Nadella, chairman and CEO of Microsoft commented on the rise of AI and highlighted company’s focus on the software: ''The world's most advanced AI models are coming together with the world's most universal user interface - natural language - to create a new era of computing.'' ''Across the Microsoft Cloud, we are the platform of choice to help customers get the most value out of their digital spend and innovate for this next generation of AI.'' Amy Hood, executive vice president and CFO highlighted Microsoft Cloud’s revenue for the quarter which increased year-over-year: ''Focused execution by our sales teams and partners in this dynamic environment resulted in Microsoft Cloud revenue of $28.5 billion, up 22% (up 25% in constant currency) year-over-year.'' Share of Microsoft were down by -2.25% on Tuesday at $275.33 before the results were announced. The stock rose by around +4% in the after-hours trading as results beat estimates. Stock performance 1 month: +0.07% 3 months: +13.79% Year-to-date: +14.84% 1 year: +1.92% Microsoft price targets Bank of America: $320 Citigroup: $332 Jefferies: $325 Goldman Sachs: $325 Cowen & Co.: $300 Microsoft Corporation is the 3 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $2.050 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Microsoft Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
US food giant The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) reported Q1 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The company topped both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Company overview • Founded: July 2, 2015 • Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States • Number of employees: 37,000 (2022) • Industry: Food • Key people: Alex Behring (Chairman), John Cahill (Vice chairman), Miguel Patricio (CEO), Paulo Basilio (CFO) The results Kraft Heinz reported revenue of $6.489 billion vs. $6.394 billion expected.
Revenues were up by 7.3% year-over-year. EPS reported at $0.68 per share (up by 7.9% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $0.597 per share. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share.
CEO commentary "We delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2023, with net sales growth across both our North America and International zones that continues to be fueled by Foodservice, Emerging Markets, and U.S. Retail GROW platforms," Kraft Heinz CEO, Miguel Patricio said in a press release. "I am very proud of the entire Kraft Heinz team as we continue to deliver on what we can control by unlocking efficiencies and reinvesting in our brands and capabilities. Our team's continued focus on executing against the strategy is coming to fruition, but it's not time to declare victory just yet.
We remain committed to advancing our business transformation, and we are confident we have the right strategy in place to win with customers and consumers, and to deliver profitable growth and create value for our stockholders," Patricio concluded. The latest results had a positive impact on the stock. Shares were up by over +4% at $40.95 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: +5.28% 3 months: +1.33% Year-to-date: +0.91% 1 year: -5.17% Kraft Heinz price targets JP Morgan: $44 Mizuho Securities: $50 Berenberg Bank: $39 BNP Paribas: $39 Goldman Sachs: $43 The Kraft Heinz Company is the 318 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $50.46 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Kraft Heinz Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Macrotrends
The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y was released at 6.3%, lower than the market forecast of 6.5% and from the previous data of 6.8%. With inflation growth on a clear downtrend following its peak of 8.4% in January 2023, this is likely to reduce the need for further rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Australian cash rate is currently at 3.60% with the RBA anticipated to keep with the previous decision of holding rates steady next Tuesday (2nd May).
While the RBA has previously indicated that some further tightening may be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target, the decision to keep interest rates at 3.60% or comments regarding a pivot in future decisions could lead to further weakening in the AUDUSD. Following the release of the CPI y/y data, the AUDUSD traded lower, breaking out of the channel, and signaling a possible continuation of the downtrend since February 2023. Additionally, with the Ichimoku cloud acting as a resistance and indicating further downside potential, the AUDUSD could trade down to retest the support level of 0.6565.
Beyond the immediate support level, the next key support level is the previous swing low at the 0.64 price area. This move lower could be driven by a further recovery in strength on the DXY and if the RBA decides to hold interest rates at 3.60%.