Berita & analisis pasar

GDP Dominance The United States dominates the world when it comes to having the largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), however, there are countries around the world which are showing major signs of economic growth and expected to overtake current world economic leaders, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. As mentioned above, the United States has the largest GDP in the world at around $19 trillion, followed by China and Japan at $11 and $4 trillion respectively according to the figures for 2017. However, looking to the future there are some economies that are expected to expand dramatically, and we can take a look at them in this article.

China Capital: Beijing Population: 1.4 billion (18.% of the world total) Official language: Standard Chinese Currency: Renminbi (CNY) Summary Even though the Chinese economy is already the second largest in the world, it is expected to grow even further over the next decade. China’s GDP has grown from around $4.5 trillion in 2008 to $12.2 trillion last year, a 166% increase over the last 9 years. And according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), one of world’s biggest professional service companies, China’s GDP is expected to grow to $38 trillion by 2030, making it the largest economy in the world.

India Capital: New Delhi Population: 1.3 billion (17% of the world total) Official language: Hindi Currency: Indian Rupee (INR) Summary India’s economy was 6th largest in the world at $2.5 trillion. Since 2008, Asia’s 3rd largest economy has expanded by around 110% from $1.1 to $2.5 trillion. It is expected to grow further to $19.5 trillion, according to PwC overtaking the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan – making it the third largest economy in the world by 2030.

Indonesia Capital: Jakarta Population: 266 million (3.5% of the world total) Official language: Indonesian Currency: Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Summary The Indonesian economy is currently 16th largest in the world at just over $1 trillion. It has nearly doubled since 2008. The South East Asian countries economy is projected to expand to around $5.4 trillion making it world’s 5th largest economy by 2030 overtaking United Kingdom and Germany.

Brazil Capital: Brasilia Population: 210 million (2.8% of the world total) Official language: Portuguese Currency: Brazilian Real (BRL) Summary Brazil is currently the world’s 8th largest economy at $2 trillion GDP in 2017. South America’s largest economy has experienced a steady growth since 2008 when it’s GDP was at $1.6 trillion. Brazil is expected to overtake countries like France and the United Kingdom by 2030 when its economy is projected to expand to around $4.4 trillion.

Mexico Capital: Mexico City Population: 130 million (1.7% of the world total) Official language: Spanish Currency: Mexican Peso (MXN) Summary Mexico’s economy has expanded by around 3% since 2008 and is currently the world’s 15th largest economy. However, its economy is expected to grow drastically over the coming years to around $3.6 trillion according to the projection making it the 9th largest economy in the world by 2030. By Klāvs Valters ( Market Analyst) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.

They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: PwC, World Bank and Google Maps

Trading Share CFDs gives you exposure to the movement of underlying shares. There are a few issues that are specific to Share CFDs and differ from for example trading Forex or commodity CFDS. One of these issues is that of company dividends.

This article aims to clarify the potential impact of dividends of the CFD trader. How do dividends work? One of the attractive things as a shareholder is the receipt of company dividends.

Many Australian companies pay such dividends twice a year, calculated at X cents/per share multiplied by the number of shares held. The key date in respect of dividend entitlement is the ex-dividend date, with eligibility for the dividend being dependent upon you holding a position in that share before trading commencing on the “ex-dividend” date. These dates, and the dividend amount per share, are pre-determined by the company and are made available in the public domain (usually confirmed in company reports) and are available across many financial websites.

Also, important to understand is this dividend is “priced in” to the share already the underlying share price is expected to open at closing price minus the dividend paid (of course there are other factors pre-open e.g., economic news overnight, which will also impact but in this article we are focusing on the dividend impact). Hence if the dividend per share is 20c then we would expect the underlying share to open 20 cents lower. CFDs and dividends As a CFD trader, you do not own the underlying asset (in this case the shares), rather you have a contract based on the movement of such and hence you will not be able to receive any benefits of “franking credits’ for tax purposes.

However, there is an adjustment made on your CFD account position relating to dividend. Whether this adjustment is shown as a credit or a debit will be dependent on the direction of your trade. Long trades will attract a credit and short trades a debit adjustment.

A dividend trading strategy There are some traders of shares, options and CFDs that look to develop a specific trading strategy for dividends and CFDs. Generally, this involves entering a long position prior to the ex-dividend date and subsequently selling afterwards looking for either a small drop less than the dividend adjustment or a recovery or greater move higher than the price prior to the ex-dividend date. Theoretically, the reverse could also be the case in that a short trade is entered, with the perception that many will sell after the ex-dividend date, once a dividend has been received, to the extent that this drop will exceed the dividend adjusted debit to the CFD position.

In either case, if you are considering these somewhat advanced strategies, logically you have tested a system which not only identifies potential situations but guides your entry and exit timing and decision-making. Further discussion on this may be included in a further article. We trust that has clarified the dividend treatment of Share CFDs and of course please contact our team with any further questions you may have, or if learning to trade share CFDs could be for you.

The US Dollar is the most traded currency in the world and paired with all other major currencies. It acts as the intermediary in triangular currency transactions, held by almost every central bank around the world. Unofficially, US Dollar utilization occurs in over 30 countries worldwide and officially; it gets used as a legitimate currency in eight other places around the world.

Let’s find out who those countries are. East Timor East Timor is a sovereign state in Maritime Southeast Asia, north of Australia. It became a sovereign state on 20th May 2002.

Capital: Dili Population: 1,242,000 (2017) Official language(s): Tetum, Portuguese Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $2.9 billion (2017) Ecuador Another country that uses the US Dollar as an official currency is Ecuador. The South American nation adopted the US Dollar as the official currency in January 2001. It is the seventh largest economy in South America, and it is also a member of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Capital: Quito Population: 16,390,000 (2016) Official language: Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $103 billion (2017) El Salvador El Salvador, the smallest and the most densely populated country in Central America is another country that is using US Dollar as an official currency. It has the largest economy in Central America and the only Central American nation without a Caribbean coastline. Capital: San Salvador Population: 6,345,000 (2016) Official language: Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $24 billion (2017) Palau Historically knows as Belau, Palaos and Pelew the country is made up from around 340 islands and is located in the western Pacific Ocean.

It is the 180th largest country in the world at 465 square kilometres, and it has one of smallest economies in the world. Capital: Ngerulmud Population: 21,503 (2016) Official language(s): English, Palauan Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $291 million (2017) Marshall Islands The Republic of the Marshall Islands is an island country near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. It is worlds 189th largest country regarding land area with 181 square kilometers.

The islands have a few natural resources, and their imports far exceed their exports. Capital: Majuro Population: 53,066 (2016) Official language(s): English, Marshallese Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $199 million (2017) Micronesia The Federated States of Micronesia is an independent sovereign nation and the United States associated state, so it is no surprise they use the Dollar as an official currency. The area is made up from around 600 islands, and it does not share any land borders.

Capital: Palikir Population: 104,937 (2016) Official language: English Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $336 million (2017) Panama Officially known as the Republic of Panama is a country in Central America bordering Columbia and Costa Rica. Panama has two official currencies – Panamanian Balboa (PAB) and the US Dollar. Since 1904, the Dollar has circulated in the Central American nation.

Capital: Panama City Population: 4,043,000 (2016) Official language: Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $61 billion (2017) Zimbabwe Zimbabwe is a landlocked country in the south of Africa, bordering Zambia, Mozambique, Botswana, and South Africa. The African nation experienced significant economic downfall under their previous president Robert Mugabe, and their currency was virtually worthless. In 2008, in the midst of a financial crisis, Zimbabwe got rid of their money and adopted the American Dollar.

Capital: Harare Population: 16,150,000 (2016) Official language(s): 16 languages including English, Chewa, and Shona Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $17 billion (2017) By Klāvs Valters ( Market Analyst) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Canada News Flying Under The Radar Canada has been a predominant feature in financial news in the recent few months, with many discussions centered around the NAFTA and ‘new NAFTA’ agreement, the USMCA trade deal. But despite being such a significant story, it has arguably been overshadowed by the big moves in equity markets, Brexit negotiation drama and the trouble in emerging markets, i.e., Turkey, Brazil, and even Italy’s budget woes. So with the Canadian central bank, BoC, expectedly hiking rates a by 25 basis points on Wednesday 24th October, we decided to give Canada its time in the limelight it deserves and take a look at the Canadian economy.

For more information on the BoC rate decision, take a look at our Analyst Klavs’ article right here - > The Bank of Canada Rate Decision. USDCAD Chart - BoC Tax Hike causes 100pip drop before trend continues Canadian Currency Moves And Economic Stance Perhaps the best place to start would be to address the most recent price swings in the Canadian Dollar and some of the driving forces behind it. In the chart above, we saw a 100pip push lower in the USDCAD (USD weakening, CAD strengthening) on the back of the BoC’s decision to hike rates by a further 25 basis points to 1.75%.

Now despite the highly anticipated nature of this announcement, it’s the overtly hawkish comments from the executive committee members that perpetuated the move lower in the pair. So what was said and what does it mean for Canada going forward? Let’s begin with rates as that was the initial stimulus in the move.

BoC’s Wilkins, the Senior Deputy Governor, stated that “Policy Rate will need to rise to a neutral stance to achieve inflation target” that the BoC “Don’t have a preordained rate path” and that the “pace of rate hikes is dependent on the inflation outlook.” In short, this translates to the stance that most Central banks seem to be adopting and that is an accommodative and data dependent bias. Meaning that while their long-term goal remains the same, i.e., raising the rate to preserve the value of money by keeping inflation low, stable and predictable, the timing with which they are willing to make changes is flexible and the comments from both Wilkins as Governor Poloz support this. Poloz went on to state that the removal of the word ‘Gradual’ from monetary policy forward guidance “Permits us to raise rates at a faster or slower pace depending on developments.” This statement helped to perpetuate the move higher in the Canadian Dollar because it demonstrated that Canada’s government is taking the action it needs to maintain its mandate and not blindly sticking to a set term of rate hikes regardless of momentary data blips.

Canadian Dollar Crosses Overlay - Shows Canadian Strength across the board during comments Trade Agreements And Policies The next aspect we’ll take a look at is the elephant in the room, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Our analyst Deepta takes an extensive look at USMCA here - USMCA - NAFTA 2.0 – and what it means for Canada, so what I want to focus on is BoC’s Wilkins’ comments. She states that the Canadian “Economy is becoming more resilient.” And that “USMCA reduces uncertainty,” and that fact alone is good news, Governor Poloz does also state the caveat that “Tensions between US & China could hit Canadian export growth.” Since the comments, the USD/CAD rate has seen quite a bit of activity however it has not moved much from where it was beforehand.

The market seems to be interpreting the hawkish comments from the BoC members regarding both rates and USMCA as positive for the Canadian Economy and is pricing it in accordingly. Are Canadian Stock Markets In Trouble? Amid the recent ‘Global Stock Rout’ the S&P TSX ended October down 6.51% following a somewhat hard month.

However, during this risk-off flight to safety, the S&P TSX Index may have had its pain exacerbated by the heavy makeup of energy companies populating the Canadian index. As discussed in previous articles - Oil - Can basic Economics be responsible for an 11% decline – Oil has seen some very aggressive sell-offs. Current market conditions have the commodity breaking below the $50 a barrel level amid supply concerns and growing global tensions.

Keep in mind with Canada’s energy companies occupying an 18.6% weighting of the S&P TSX; undoubtedly this has been a weight around the Index’s neck dragging it lower. Contrary Views To The Health Of Canada's TSX Index Chief Investment Strategist for BMO Capital Markets, Brian Belski stated that the similar declines were seen in 2012 & 2014 (of 11.5% and 12.5% respectively) on average saw rebounds of 18.22%. And he considers this particular sell-off as no different given that it was a flight to safety out of equities and that the major US indices led the TSX's decline.

RBC Global Asset Management chief economist Eric Lascelles mirrored this sentiment and stated that despite the reason decline and consumer concern over rising interest rates, the Canadian Economy is healthy and he cannot see it declining further into bear territory. Lascelles also says that instead of fearfully selling off, investors should seek opportunities to buy as the stock market dips since the financial crisis have typically unwound quickly. So with proactive steps being taken by the Canadian central bank and consensus for a turn around in the Canadian stock market, we could be looking a further strengthening in both the Canadian Economy and potentially the Canadian currency crosses — certainly ones to consider for the watchlist over the coming months with the next BoC decision taking place on December 6th.

For more information or any questions feel free to reach out to me on twitter – @Alex_GoMarkets This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

All the talk about whether Mark Carney will leave the Bank of England in 2019 or not has ended, the current Bank of England governor has extended his stay at the central bank until January 2020 as Chancellor Philip Hammond announced it on Tuesday. So it is now time to focus on the upcoming Bank of England rate decision at on Thursday. Who Decides The Rates?

Interest rates, set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, is made up of nine members – The Governor, the three Deputy Governors for Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and Markets & Banking, the Banks' Chief Economist and four external members appointed directly by the Chancellor. Expectations It is highly unlikely that the interest rates will rise from 0.75% in the following meeting. However, it will be essential to keep an eye out about the latest UK labour market data, which released by Office of National Statistics for any indications on the central bank's further moves.

UK Economy & Brexit Update On 10th September, the Office of National Statistics released the latest data which showed that the UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% in May to July, up from 0.4% growth in three months to June and highest since August 2017. Some positive news on the Brexit negotiations - the European Chief Negotiator for the UK Exiting the EU stated that a Brexit deal could be reached in 6 to 8 weeks. However, as we know from the Brexit process so far, anything could happen in the coming weeks, so it is still vital to keep an eye on comments coming from both sides to see if reaching a deal is even possible.

Financial Markets We saw the Pound strengthen this week against the US Dollar after the latest GDP figures and comments from the EU’s chief negotiator to its highest level since the beginning of August. GBP/USD is currently trading at around 1.30 level. GBP/USD Daily Chart As the Pound strengthened, we saw the FTSE100 fall to its lowest level since April.

Currently trading at around 7270 level. All eyes will be on the Thursday’s decision and comments from Mark Carney. FTSE100 Daily Chart The upcoming rate decision is set to be announced at 1.30 PM London time (GMT +1) Remaining Bank of England Rate Announcement dates for 2018: 1st November 20th December By Klāvs Valters ( Market Analyst) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.

They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4

There are few long-term successful traders that at some stage have not suffered a major capital drawdown on their account at some stage. For whatever the reason the major factor as to whether you continue and get back to “winning ways” or continue to see further drawdowns is what you do next. Unfortunately, there are “traps” that such a set of circumstances can lead to, your aim, if this should happen to you is to avoid these.

This article aims to outline these to assist in developing awareness and assist in your “what happens next” thinking and actions. Trap 1 – Abdicate responsibility It is a natural human response when things go wrong to look for someone/something to blame. This is far easier emotionally to deal with than admitting that you have behaved, through actions, in a way that has contributed to a negative outcome.

Although it may be true that certain market conditions, or “trump tweets”, or economic announcements may all contribute to a significant market price movement, the majority of major capital drawdowns in reality occur over a number of trades and of course you have made the choice to trade and as if not more importantly when to exit any trades you have taken. The reality is of course, that unless you accept 100% that trading action is YOUR choice and that YOU are responsible for your trading results then you are unlikely to move forward and may indeed see further capital drawdowns on your trading account. Accepting this reality, gives you the drive to avoid the other potential traps and put the right things in place to reduce the likelihood of it happening again.

Trap 2 – Fail to explore WHY it happened? Beyond accepting responsibility one of your first tasks is to examine potential and subsequently actual factors that may have contributed. Commonly these can all come under the following: a.

You didn’t know what you were doing due to a knowledge gap b. You didn’t have an evidence-based (i.e. you have tested it and refined accordingly) specific comprehensive trading plan that guided your actions c. You didn’t follow your trading plan d.

Your trading system is comprehensive and sufficiently specific but doesn’t work and needs reviewed i.e. a new set of entry/exit criteria The temptation is, and many traders will go straight to ‘d’ of the above, but again arguably there is an element of “finger pointing” rather than taking responsibility. The reality is that of the four factors above the latter is the most unlikely cause. Being honest in your review is critical.

Such an honest review will give you clear guidance on which factor(s) you should focus on working on. Trap 3 – ‘Revenge’ trading Although this is a term bandied around frequently, let us delve beyond the ‘beermat psychology’ and look a little closer at what this may mean. In essence, the underlying emotional motivation is to get back to where you were before in terms of your account capital.

Commonly this thinking is backed by “desperation”, subsequently influencing actions that often bear little resemblance to good trading practice. In action, you may see: • Taking trades when there is no clear set up • Partial or complete ignoring of any trading plan • Inappropriate actions further trades go against you (e.g. finding reasons to stay in future trades when there is an exit) • Trading higher position sizing that you previously had • Trading each small market move, taking a reverse position even on a trend pause. • Looking to trade tighter and tighter timeframes These of course may significantly contribute to further losses as this emotional rather than system- based trading takes a stronger and stronger hold on your actions. Logically, the following may be more appropriate: • Give yourself some breathing space to properly review …STOP trading while you complete this (As described above) • Although easy to say and not so easy to accept the reality is that your account capital is what it is now, not what it was.

There was, for many in this situation, a time in your trading where whatever your capital level, your aim was to increase whatever that level was and put actions in place to give yourself the best chance of that happening. Ultimately, even if you strayed from this, developing consistency in appropriate trading plan actions and measurement are accepted by most traders as the way to make this happen over time. So, you need to press the “RESET button”, accept it as it is, and have the goal that through returning to that good trading practice consistently, and filling the gaps you need to.

Making this your goal rather than a dollar figure, may give yourself the chance to build capital not just to its previous level but beyond. Let it go! And do the right things from here I guess is the bottom-line message.

Trap 4 – Position size according to your previous rather than current account level This final trap for discussion in this article may seem obvious on the surface, but may either be a symptom of the previous point or something that is overlooked (unless of course inappropriate position sizing was one of the root causes of a major drawdown which you will discover in your review). It is crucial, and hence why we make special reference to it here, that you have a set risk level, usually expressed as a % of your account capital. This will differ from trader to trader but is comply between the 1-3% level as an example.

This determines lot/contract size (dependent on what you are trading) for any individual trade and combined with “stop loss” placement is a critical part of your risk management now and going forward. You need to recalculate what this is for you with reference to your NEW account size and factor this into your decision making, even if this means you are trading smaller amounts for now. In summary, major trading drawdowns are upsetting, and although not common often create additional ‘traps’ which may worsen what has happened to your trading capital.

And finally... Although perhaps of little consolation that many, many traders who now have sustained success, will have gone through this like you, the difference between what happens next and for your trading account in years to come, to your account is likely to be as a result of what you do next. You have choices to make but avoiding the above four traps described may perhaps assist in ultimately getting to where you want to be with your trading going forward.