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Are we 5 weeks away from a US Government shutdown? …and what does this mean for the markets? President Donald Trump has had a few admittedly less-than-stellar weeks. Topping off his widely condemned remarks following the Charlottesville, Virginia events, he went on to attack his Republican colleagues in the House and Senate.

Recent polling has shown his numbers dropping below the 40% mark, with the largest drops coming from his own Republican voter base. Although Republicans control both houses of Congress and the Presidency, as we all witnessed last month with the health care debacle, they were unable to overcome different political factions and tribalism. Congress will have two very large issues this month: raising the debt ceiling, which is the limit of how much the US government can borrow, and passing a spending bill.

The Treasury department has stated that Congress needs to raise the debt ceiling by Friday September 29. Failure to pass a spending bill could force a government shutdown. During a rally in Phoenix, he stated that he was willing to allow the government to experience its second shutdown in recent years if they didn’t include funding for his wall (that Mexico will supposedly pay for).

This is not the first time that he’s threatened to close the government. Below were his tweets from three months ago: [caption id="attachment_58584" align="aligncenter" width="541"] Source: Twitter[/caption] And his tweets from Thursday August 24 th: [caption id="attachment_58585" align="aligncenter" width="520"] Source: Twitter[/caption] Even with President Trump’s tweets and statements, Republican leaders have stated that they want to avoid a shutdown. President Trump and his administration need a boost to the ever-declining poll numbers beyond the funding for the border wall.

They’ll also be requesting more immigration officers and an increased military budget. Between uniform opposition among Democrats and infighting among the Republicans, you’ll expect to see more Republicans breaking rank if his poll numbers sink lower – something rather problematic for the President’s agenda. The House of Representatives requires a simple majority – something the Republicans already have; 240 versus 194.

While the Senate in practice requires 60 to pass a bill, the Republicans only have 52 (the Democrats have 48). Thus, Democratic support for the spending bill will be required, which will force Republicans in Congress to make some very difficult concessions. What does this mean for the markets?

The last time the government had a shutdown was the 1 st – 16 th of October 2013. The Democrats were in control of the Presidency and Senate, while Republicans held the House. Below we’ve highlighted the shutdown on the GO Trader 4 US Dollar Index daily chart.

US DOLLAR INDEX [caption id="attachment_58586" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Source: GO Markets MT4[/caption] If you’re unfamiliar with the US Index, it’s the value of the US Dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Thus, rather than analyzing a single currency pair, you’re able to monitor its movements and hedge your position against a rising or falling Dollar. It’s one of the Futures CFDs that GO Markets offers.

As you can see in the lead-up to the shutdown the index slumped, and immediately following the end of the shutdown the index dropped to the lowest point of 2013. Latest update on the Shutdown President Trump made a deal with the Democrats reportedly to avoid what was going to be a wild September with a number of legislative deadlines and a probable government shutdown. Majority and minority leaders, together with the House Speaker, announced in a joint press conference that an extension deal for the debt ceiling to March next year and a spending bill was made until mid-December for Hurricane Harvey victims.

In the context of national calamities, Trump sided with the Democrats to reassure Americans and to avoid instability by shutting down the government. The US Dollar experienced a boost on the news. While House Speaker Paul Ryan finds the idea of playing politics with the debt ceiling ‘ridiculous’, Trump unexpectedly sided with the Democrats this time around.

He mayalso be taking a position where he can aim to push tax and other reforms in his favour. US DOLLAR INDEX [caption id="attachment_58587" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Source: GO Markets MT4[/caption] It will be interesting to see how Trump works together with Congress to reach a deal in December. By: Samuel Hertz GO Markets

Apple is the first company on this planet to reach a $1 Trillion Market value, each year continuing to release brand new innovative products including the latest iPhone to hit shelves. There is no doubt that Apple is the technology king of this generation given its following, constant growth, and company profits. However, can it maintain its innovation and high market value over the next ten years? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We all know that every technology product has a life cycle.

Think about this: 30 years ago your family might get very excited when purchasing a new television, but are you still as enthusiastic if you buy a new TV today? No, because on the one hand, the technology is a lot cheaper and commonplace, and on the other, the notion of refining this product has arguably reached its ceiling. After Television, PCs and digital cameras also can’t escape from the same fate.

Once sold at high prices with premium product positioning, I still remember my first PC which cost around USD 2000, and even this was considered low in the 1990‘s. How about now? PC sales in 2017 have dropped to 263m, which is even less than the sales of iPhone 1 in 2007. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may not have noticed, but coinciding with Apple reaching a $1 Trillion, value, the two major suppliers for iPhone components——Sunny Optical Ltd (Listed in Hong Kong) & LARGAN Precision Ltd (listed in Taiwan) are both experiencing price shocks in the stock market.

Let me first briefly introduce this two companies. LARGAN Precision is a camera producer and provides five lenses for each iPhone. Its stock price has increased 1692% in the last decade.

Sunny Optical became camera lens model supplier for iPhone since 2007. After ten years, its stock price increased insanely 13068%! These miraculous returns are all based on the developing phase of smartphones.

However, the Smart Phone concept appears to be transitioning to its Mature Phase, and eventually, declining Phase. In the 4th Quarter of 2017, the total sales of the Smart Phone market have dropped for the first time. You'll notice from the chart that every smartphone company value fell, not just Apple and Samsung.

Regarding technology, Apple had already left the “Iron Throne” years ago. In the smartphone chips producing area, only two companies (LARGAN & Samsung) has achieved current Human Limit ——7nm (the thinner the chip, the harder for human technology to achieve) Only one company (Samsung) is willing to put money into R&D and pursue the impossible——3nm. Why has everyone else already given up? (which also means that the iPhone in the next few years will likely see little to no significant improvement, except the size, colour, and Price) The smartphone product is not far away from its tech limit.

It's perhaps not worthwhile to invest loads of money into R&D anymore. Alternatively, it might be better off to move their R&D forces to the next generational products, for example, GPU, VR, Drone, Artificial intelligence, or something even beyond our imagination at the moment. It is still too early to say whether Apple can keep its leading position in next 10 years, let’s wait and see.

By Lanson Chen – Analyst Lanson Chen @LansonChen This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Sources: Statista, Apple, Google

There is NO such thing as emotionless trading AND in many respects, it may be considered that it is a good thing too. After all, correctly targeted emotions will allow you to: Have an exciting, compelling trading purpose that drives you to do the hard yards with your learning (we know some people fail to complete a course or put learning into action). Be motivated to do your due diligence and make sure you have ticked all the boxes before you press any trading buttons and take action with entry and exit.

Celebrate when you do the right thing (Remember: this includes keeping that loss small when you should) and Feel PAIN when you donate to the market needlessly through poor or inappropriate execution (providing of course you take the lesson AND take more appropriate action next time while placing the blame where it should be). So YES, let’s get aroused! If we hit the right level of trading arousal EVERY TIME and it’s driven by channelled, enabling emotion, this may create a higher probability that when we get to the ‘press-the-button’ stage we do it with a calm confidence and will more likely have a better trading outcome, or as we have called it here the “Potential Profit Zone” (Remember: it is equally a win to make sure that any loss is within your tolerable risk level meaning your long term results are more likely to be positive).

Either extreme of arousal is not likely to produce the results we desire, either through not taking our trading seriously enough (the “Hobby Zone”) to do the things we must (due diligence; careful consideration of strategy selection; making sure it REALLY fits your plan), or though making decisions that are most certainly extreme NOT from the right emotional place (the “Capital Danger Zone”). Take a look at the diagram below that aims to illustrate this: This middle zone is where we need to be, so sufficiently stimulated to do the right things consistently (even though these may appear to be a chore and some until they become habits). If you don’t apply this level of emotion to your trading and trade in the “Hobby Zone”, it is less likely you will be sufficiently “aroused” to spot an opportunity and then trade it without lengthy procrastination.

Or equally if not more important to exit a trade in a timely, confident manner either to take profit or minimise any loss from a single trade. You need to operate with the decisive action of a “trading Ninja” with the appropriate peak state of arousal or in other words in the “Potential Profit Zone”. This may be more likely to give yourself the best chance of optimising trading results.

Neither do we want to be in a state of being over-stimulated to the point where you become a trading ‘fruit-loop’ (not the technical term) and perilously exposed to some of the more “dangerous” emotions. To make trading decisions when anxious, angry (that revenge trading thing!), or trading out of fear rarely produces good results and can mutilate a portfolio value quicker than saying “not having a stop loss in place is completely bonkers”. So, it’s a balance of the two extremes – surely, it is logical that some emotion is good as it motivates you to do the right thing and follow through on your learning, direct trading and measuring, and there are some emotional states that are hugely damaging.

So, your mission after reading this post (as it’s always best to take some action) is to make a ten-second assessment of your ‘state of arousal’ before you press an entry or exit button for every trade this coming week (YES! You can start now). Make the judgement as to which of these described zones you may be trading from.

One final word: if you want evidence of whether the right state of arousal is likely to produce peak performance, then look at other situations where that might also be the case….just a different context, that’s all. GET AROUSED! PS Aroused to learn what you need to, but are not sure where to go?

Why not access your FREE “Next Steps” education course including two group coaching webinars sessions to help put LIVE market context to the theory learned in the videos? For more information click on the "Next Steps" image on the right. This article is written by an external Analyst and is based on his independent analysis.

He remains fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. For more information on trading, check out our forex webinar.

Emerging Markets (EMs) are being dragged down by the deepening crisis in Turkey. The collapse of the Turkish Lira has rattled the financial markets, ripped through the emerging FX markets and brought down the stocks markets at the start of the week. Fears have gripped the EMs over various issues at once.

EMs have received not one but several punches over the past few months, and are currently navigating in a challenging environment. This wobbly emerging market situation is forcing investors to remove their funds and go elsewhere. The buzzword “contagion” is back on the minds of investors.

The plunge of the Lira is forcing investors to consider the other instances where an emerging currency was able to pull down the global markets. Asian Crisis (1990s) Back in 1997, the crisis started when the Thai baht collapsed as it was forced to float on the exchange rate which in turn increased the country’s foreign debt burden. The financial contagion had spread across other emerging economies causing a “tsunami of devaluations” and had created fears of a worldwide economic meltdown.

At that time, nearly all Asian countries were pegged against the dollar and the scale of dollar borrowing was high as well. Some argued that the “Asian crisis” was a “Banking crisis” whereby the Asian economies took on too much foreign currency risks. The Rouble Rout (2014) A loss of confidence in the Russian economy and a fall in its oil exports had led to a decline in the value of its currency.

The financial crisis was then further fueled by economic sanctions, which were placed upon Russia by developed countries as a result of Russia’s military intervention in the Ukraine. Fears that the recession in Russia could see money leaving out of emerging economies to more developed countries created a similar chaos in the markets. The Rouble Rout was not a repeat of the Asian crisis as the emerging economies had learned from its lesson; Nevertheless, it had the same rhyme.

Turkey’s currency crisis Turkey’s meltdown revived those fears and created panic across the global markets. The sudden fall of the Lira and the strength of the dollar have triggered a bloodbath in the EMs. The financial crisis in Turkey should not be looked at in isolation when analysing the current negative outlook in the markets.

However, given its strong correlation with other emerging currencies, the turmoil in Turkey has prompted a deeper slide in the markets. Trade Tensions The sell-off started by the US-China trade tensions incited a sudden reversal in the markets. The MSCI Emerging Market Currency which measures the return of major emerging currencies relative to the US dollar peaked at the beginning of the year to tumble following trade tensions.

The index was at its strongest level at a time where EM assets rallied, commodity prices rose and there was a broad growth despite an environment of rising interest rate in the developed countries. US Sanctions A series of US sanctions on several EMs at the same time is creating panic as investors are analysing the effects of those sanctions on the global economy and are taking positions accordingly. However, the goal of imposing the sanctions might not mitigate the impact of the new sanctions on global financial markets.

Gripped by trade and geopolitical risks, the emerging and developed markets are facing the power of a strong dollar. The US economy has strengthened, fundamentals are robust and the Fed is tightening the monetary policy. Therefore, countries with a large international debt positions will likely see their currencies weakened.

We have seen the sudden shift in the dollar and how the emerging and G10 currencies are performing against the US dollar. The "strong US dollar story" summarises the current trading environment in the currency markets. The effect of the plunge of the Turkish Lira rippled through the markets bringing down major developed and emerging currencies.

In the last 48 hours, we have seen anxieties building up and investors flying to safety to US denominated assets. Given that the situation in the EMs appear to have worsen, traders should be cautious when betting on EMs amid the plunge. Investors will likely look for the immediate next line of fire and draw conclusions whether it is more than just a Turkey crisis.

They will have to re-evaluate emerging assets compared to a strong dollar and a hawkish Fed.

Amazon on Track to Become a $1 Trillion Company By Klavs Valters With Apple close to becoming the first company in the world to reach $1 trillion market cap, Amazon is also closing in. As one of the world’s largest online retailers it is on track to reach the milestone by 2022, according to Jefferies analyst Brent Thill. Thill sees the expansion of their digital advertising business as a key driver bringing in a potential revenue of $22 billion by 2022, up from $4 billion in 2017.

Amazon offers a range of products and services through its websites. The company operates through three segments: North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The company's products include merchandise and content that it purchases for resale from vendors and those offered by third-party sellers.

It also manufactures and sells electronic devices. In 2017, we saw Amazon acquire 11 companies, further accelerating their growth. One of the most notable acquisitions was Whole Foods Markets, a supermarket chain that specialises in selling food products without artificial preservatives, colours, flavours, sweetener and hydrogenated fats.

The deal cost Amazon around $13.7 billion and shows the company’s plans to expand into different sectors. Whole Foods has 473 stores in the United States, Canada and United Kingdom. We are barely three months into the new year and we have seen Amazon already make their first acquisition.

Last month, the tech giant purchased the Ring (formerly Doorbot) – a global home security company. The deal is rumoured to be worth between $1.2 to $1.8 billion. Amazon are also planning to bid for the rights to stream major sporting events such as, the English Premier League, NFL (National Football League), MLB (Major Baseball League) and NHL (National Hockey League) to attract more people to subscribe to the Prime membership.

With the American league (NFL, MLB and NHL) deals set to expire in 2021, it will be the first time for Amazon and other major tech streaming platforms to bid for the rights against the traditional media companies. In 2017, we saw the Amazon share price rise about 53% and this year we have already seen the price rise by 28%. Further expansion into different sectors will certainly help Amazon’s performance moving forward and reach the $1 trillion market cap sooner rather than later.

Amazon Source: Tradingview

Position accumulation is to increase exposure to a currency pair, by adding a second (or more) position in the same trading direction. Although on the surface the opportunity to increase potential return is attractive, there are also risks that MUST be at the forefront of your thinking. Are you ready to accumulate?

Before considering position accumulation to your trading behaviour, it is worth considering two important aspects. This is not a strategy for the trader beginners, but rather when other systems are already in place such as a written trading plan that includes statements that reference risk management approaches, particularly that of appropriate position sizing and clear exit approaches. Also, logically, as you are potentially increasing exposure with this approach, it is not only having a trading plan that is important, but also a record of follow through with that plan.

We know disciplined trading is a challenge for some, so if this is something you are battling with than master this first. Why a profitable position only? It is crucial that this is one of the rules of any system you choose to develop.

Accumulating into a losing position (akin to ‘dollar cost averaging)’ should be considered a very high-risk strategy. The essence of this approach is that at each accumulation point, as you increase exposure, you manage the additional risk by moving a stop on previous positions at each accumulation point. Your position accumulation system As with any aspect of trading behaviour, a measurable set of statements that dictate your actions as part of your trading plan should be developed with reference to your position accumulation.

These statements may include as a minimum: a. Under what market circumstances you would consider accumulating e,g. strong uptrend confirmed across multiple timeframes. b. What technical signals are you going to use to signal the time to accumulate (e.g. if into a long position break of a key point, subsequent to confirmation of continued uptrend after a retracement. c.

Your trail-stop process e.g. at each accumulation point for all previously opened positions -all opened positions should be treated as one re, exit point. d. Position sizing e.g. accumulate no more than the original position, meaning if you enter 5 mini-lots initially that is the maximum you can add on each accumulation. e. Your maximum exposure e.g. 2 standard lots f.

Other exit points or reason to delay/refrain from accumulating further e.g. economic data. Once your system is complete then it should be tested prospectively, and amended as appropriate, prior to implanting in the reality of your trading practice. We trust this review of position accumulating will help in your choice as to whether to integrate this into your trading strategy and of course, some of the considerations that are worth exploring.