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The Volatility Contraction Pattern, (VCP) is a famous trading pattern identified and dissected by Market Wizard, Mark Minervini. The premise of the pattern is that stocks in long term up trends will pause and consolidate as some holders exit their positions and the stock is accumulated again by buyers in the market. The chart pattern can provide opportunities for powerful break outs and can be used across any time frame.

This allows traders to jump in on potential moves before they explode. Mechanics of the pattern The background of the pattern is relatively simple. The stock has been previously rising in an uptrend and has found some resistance.

It then moves into a period of consolidation categorised by 2-6 retracements with each one being smaller than the previous one. The volume should usually be decreasing as the chart moves to the right. The pattern culminates in a powerful break out that can often be long lasting.

The key for this pattern is that there needs to be a contraction of volatility as the chart moves from the left to the right. This highlights that the volume available is decreasing and becoming scarce. In addition, the more dramatic in volume, the more likely that the move will be explosive.

Below the breakout is accompanied by an increase in the relative volume. In the chart below for Natural Gas, the decrease in volume can be associated with the contracting candlestick pattern. This occurs prior to the break of the long-term resistance.

The breakthrough was also associated with a large amount of buying volume. The VCP can manifest itself in other patterns such as a cup and handle patterns. The key is that the candlesticks must be decreasing volatility.

A resistance level is a key tool in technical analysis, indicating when an asset has reached a price level that market participants are unwilling to surpass. Resistance levels are often used in conjunction with support levels, or the point at which traders are unwilling to let an asset's price drop much lower. To understand this fully, it’s important to understand how support and resistance works in general.

A support line is when a price hits a low point (on the selling side) and resistance is when the price hits a high (on the buying side). If the prices rebound back to this price or continue to hit this price without surpassing it, it then starts to become a key resistance or support level. As a rule of thumb when using technical analysis, these tools become very important for some traders.

This is due to those points offering various outcomes. Whether they are a Bounce or a Break, essentially meaning, does the price hit the support/resistance and comes back (Bounce) or does it go through the support/resistance lines (Breaks). It is important to also use other indicators to accompany your technical analysis, as these movements could also easily become reversals or break outs, meaning, instead of them following your prognosis the price does the opposite.

When a price has been rejected various times, it builds an even stronger key resistance. Trading volume and sentiment can help to propel a price past this point and some of the biggest movements come after a price breaks a key resistance. Using a current trend (Fig 1) and a hypothetical trend (Fig 2), let’s take the daily timeframe for BTCUSD as an example (below).

The daily candle has broken through a key resistance of $41,000 as shown on figure 1. If a trader identifies this, they can do one of two things; trade it aggressively and place a trade as it breaks through or trade it conservatively and wait for the former resistance line to become the new support line before placing a trade (so wait for the price to bounce off as outlined on the drawn projection and circled on figure 2). Figure 1.

Figure 2. This technical analysis can be used for any asset you wish to trade: it’s transferrable and key in identifying entry or exit points of trades. By learning to spot the patterns and combining this with knowledge of trading volume and sentiment, you can start to understand the markets better.

Sources: Babypips, Investopedia, @sell9000 Twitter.

Public Wi-Fi hotspots are found everywhere in places like your local shops, cafes, hotels, and even at some parks. They can be a convenient way to access the internet when you are out, have poor reception, or are travelling overseas. Learn more about public Wi-Fi and using it securely.

Like many things online, there are risks involved when using public Wi-Fi hotspots. They can be accessed by anyone, and are often free and unsecured. These hotspots can be an attractive target for cybercriminals, who may try to use them to steal your passwords or sensitive information.

Case Study A NSW man recently became aware that he was a victim of identity theft. He was told he owed over $7000 in fees to a company, for the purchase of gift cards and digital subscriptions that were sent to unknown email addresses. On investigation, he found there were multiple inquiries on his credit report around the same time.

The first credit inquiry happened not long after travelling overseas, where he had used his laptop. While connected to a public Wi-Fi hotspot during his trip at the airport, he had sent ID documents to his parents, including his passport and birth certificate. It turns out he had connected to a fake Wi-Fi hotspot which was set up by a cybercriminal.

The cybercriminal was able to intercept his ID documents, and use them to steal the man’s identity. It is important to be aware of the risks, and to develop secure habits when making use of these hotspots. Follow these tips the next time you are thinking about connecting to a public Wi-Fi hotspot: 1.

Check you are connecting to the right hotspot Anyone can create a free Wi-Fi hotspot, including cybercriminals. Wi-Fi and hotspot names are not unique, and they can be reused by anyone. A cybercriminal may try to take advantage of this by copying and posing as a legitimate hotspot.

Ensure you are connecting to the hotspot you intend. You can do this by: Checking the hotspot’s name on signage, or directly with staff at the venue. Preventing your device from automatically connecting to the hotspot.

Disable features such as “auto-join” or “auto connect” for public hotspots. Where possible, choose hotspots that require a password. Try to avoid “open” or “unsecure” networks.

As an extra precaution, ‘forget’ the network in your Wi-Fi settings after you have finished using it. This will prevent your device automatically reconnecting in the future. If in doubt, do not connect to the hotspot.

Instead, wait until you can use a trusted network such as your home, office or mobile connection. 2. Check you are visiting secure webpages When a webpage is secure, the information that you send to it is encrypted and cannot be intercepted and read by cybercriminals. You can check that a webpage is secure by: Looking for ‘https’ and the lock symbol in the address bar on your web browser.

Ensure that the webpage is what you expect. If your browser displays a warning message when you try to visit a website, do not continue. Stop using the hotspot, disconnect, and ‘forget’ it on your device. 3.

Disable file sharing Some devices may allow your files to be shared over Wi-Fi, which can be useful when you are at home or work. When connecting to public Wi-Fi, ensure you switch off file sharing. This will prevent a cybercriminal from potentially accessing your files, or putting malicious files on your device.

These features can vary depending on your device. To learn more about the different types of sharing options on your device, see Microsoft’s guidance for Windows and Apple’s guidance for Mac. When joining a new Wi-Fi hotspot, you may be asked to select if a network is public or private, ensure you select public.

This will also automatically disable file sharing. 4. Think twice about what you access Public Wi-Fi hotspots cannot always be trusted. Reconsider your need to access sensitive information, such as your online banking.

If possible, wait until you are using a secure home, office or mobile connection. 5. Use a VPN A virtual private network (VPN) is a service that encrypts and secures your data when using the internet. It acts as an extra layer of protection when using public Wi-Fi hotspots.

If you use public Wi-Fi hotspots frequently, install and use a reputable VPN service on your device. When considering which VPN service to use, research each product and its company. VPN providers have access to a large amount of their user’s data, so it is important to know about their privacy policy, how they store information, and if they share it.

Look at independent reviews online to make an informed, secure decision. Source: Australian Signals Directorate. Original article available here.

If you're an existing GO Markets client, simply get in touch with a member of our Support Team and we'll help you get set up. How it works: GO Markets offers complimentary monthly VPS subscription to clients who have completed a minimum trade volume of US $1 Mil per calendar month (approximately 5 round turn FX lots). A service fee starting from US$10 (or Account Currency Equivalent) per month will be charged to your trading account if the monthly trade volume is not met.

If you do not meet the above criteria, you can still subscribe. However, a monthly fee of US$30 (or Account Currency Equivalent) will be charged to your trading account. Your VPS subscription will be terminated when you close your Trading Account with GO Markets or the Equity Balance of your Trading Account falls below A$30 (or Account Currency Equivalent.) You can also terminate your VPS subscription at any given time by contacting our Support Team.

Terms and Conditions: Trading Volumes are calculated for a calendar month, from the Sydney open on the first trading day of the month, to the New York close on the last trading day of the month. Qualifying trades include any FX, Metals, Indices and Commodities volume. The VPS is provided by a specialised third-party, and as such, GO Markets does not guarantee the uptime or performance of the VPS service.

GO Markets accepts no liability for any adverse effects to our Trading Account following the withdrawal of the monthly fee, if required. Offers cannot be used in conjunction with any other promotional offer. All GO Markets offers are only available in accordance with applicable law.

GO Markets offers are not designed to alter or modify an individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies. Traders should ensure that they operate their trading account in a manner consistent with their trading comfort level. It is at GO Markets sole discretion to cease any of our promotional offers at any point in time.

It is at GO Markets sole discretion to exclude you from the complimentary VPS subscription if we believe you have instigated any fraudulent activities or your actions are to be found in violation of our terms and conditions or the terms and conditions of the specific offer. GO Markets reserves the right to decline any application or indication to participate in any promotion at its sole discretion, without the need to provide any justification or explain the reasons for such a decline. VPS is available for both MT4 and MT5 MetaTrader software.

Retail sales play a fundamental role in shaping the economic landscape of any country. These sales represent the culmination of consumer demand for finished products, serving as a barometer for economic health and a predictor of market trends. In the United States, this vital metric is meticulously tracked and reported monthly by the U.S.

Census Bureau, making it a cornerstone of economic analysis. Diverse Scope of Retail Sales Data Retail sales data encompasses a wide array of transactions, including both durable and non-durable goods, within a specific timeframe. These transactions emanate from 13 distinct types of retailers, ranging from food services to retail stores.

This broad spectrum of goods and services reflects the intricate tapestry of consumer spending habits, providing invaluable insights into market behaviour. Unravelling the Significance Retail sales offer more than just a glimpse into consumer preferences; they provide a macroeconomic perspective on consumer demand for finished products. By compiling data on durable and non-durable goods, the retail sales report becomes a powerful tool for analysts and investors.

These figures serve as a pulse check for the economy, guiding decisions by shedding light on economic health and identifying potential inflationary pressures. The U.S. Census Bureau's meticulous gathering of data from various establishments ensures the accuracy of retail sales metrics.

This accuracy is imperative due to the pivotal role consumer spending plays in the U.S. economy. Consumer spending, also known as Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), constitutes a staggering two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, understanding retail sales is not just a matter of economic analysis; it is essential for gauging the overall economic well-being of the nation.

Decoding Retail Sales: Insight into Economic Vitality Retail sales do not exist in isolation; they are intertwined with broader economic trends, offering a window into the vitality of the economy. These figures, reported by food service and retail stores, are meticulously compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Utilising sophisticated data sampling techniques, these measurements are extrapolated to model nationwide patterns, providing a comprehensive view of consumer behaviour. The categories of retail sales are diverse, spanning in-store, catalogue, and out-of-store sales of both durable and non-durable goods. This diversity highlights the multifaceted nature of consumer preferences and purchasing behaviours.

From clothing and pharmaceuticals to electronics and furniture, retail sales encompass a myriad of products, each reflecting distinct market dynamics. Influence of Inflation: Navigating Economic Challenges Inflation, a ubiquitous economic phenomenon, significantly impacts retail sales. As prices of goods and services rise, consumers are compelled to recalibrate their spending habits.

Higher inflation often leads to a reduction in overall expenditures, with consumers prioritising necessities and purchases resistant to inflationary pressures. This adjustment underscores the intricate dance between economic forces and consumer behaviour, shaping the trajectory of retail sales figures. Special Considerations in Interpreting Retail Sales Data Interpreting retail sales data requires a nuanced understanding of various factors.

The U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey, released mid-month, provides detailed insights into total sales, accompanied by percentage changes from previous reports. To account for seasonal fluctuations, the report includes year-over-year changes, offering a comprehensive view of consumer-based retail trends.

Economists and analysts face the challenge of interpreting retail sales figures accurately. One such challenge lies in the inclusion of auto and gas sales, both of which are volatile categories. Many experts prefer analysing retail sales data excluding these segments, considering their propensity to fluctuate unpredictably.

Gas station sales, influenced by oil and gas price volatility, are particularly prone to sharp shifts, making them a less reliable indicator of consumer behaviour. Seasonality and Retail Sales: The Impact of Festive Seasons Seasonality significantly shapes retail sales patterns, with the holiday season, notably Christmas, witnessing a surge in consumer spending. This festive period accounts for a substantial portion of annual sales, especially for retailers specialising in hobbies, toys, games, and department stores.

Recognizing these seasonal fluctuations is essential for a nuanced interpretation of retail sales data. It underscores the cyclical nature of consumer behaviour and its intersection with cultural and economic factors. Calculating Retail Sales Data: Precision in Reporting The U.S.

Department of Commerce's Census Bureau plays a pivotal role in compiling and disseminating retail sales figures. Through its Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Bureau meticulously collects data, summarising the previous month's sales activity. This precision in data collection ensures the accuracy and reliability of retail sales metrics, providing a foundation for informed economic analysis.

The Bottom Line: Retail Sales as Economic Barometer In essence, retail sales represent far more than mere transactions; they encapsulate the collective choices and behaviours of consumers, offering a nuanced portrayal of economic health. As a leading macroeconomic indicator, retail sales serve as a compass, guiding investors, policymakers, and analysts through the complex terrain of economic trends. The surge or decline in retail sales figures echoes the heartbeat of the economy.

Increasing retail sales signify a robust and expanding economy, eliciting positive movements in equity markets. Shareholders of retail companies welcome these high sales figures, indicating enhanced earnings and market stability. However, the story is not devoid of complexities.

Bondholders, sensitive to economic nuances, exhibit mixed sentiments. While a flourishing economy benefits all, lower retail sales and economic contraction can lead to reduced inflation. This prompts investors to turn to bonds, potentially increasing bond prices as they seek stability in the face of economic uncertainty.

In conclusion, understanding retail sales is akin to deciphering an intricate economic code. It requires a keen eye for detail, an understanding of market dynamics, and an awareness of the broader economic landscape. Retail sales are not just numbers on a report; they encapsulate the aspirations, choices, and challenges of a nation's consumers.

By delving into the nuances of retail sales data, analysts and investors gain invaluable insights, enabling them to navigate the ever-changing currents of the global economy. As a barometer of economic health, retail sales continue to be a beacon, guiding stakeholders toward informed decisions and a deeper understanding of the intricate web of economic interactions.

Options trading offers a plethora of strategies to cater to various market conditions and investor objectives. Among these strategies, the bull call spread stands out as a versatile tool that allows traders to capitalize on their bullish outlook while managing risk effectively. In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of a bull call spread, exploring its mechanics, potential benefits, and considerations for successful implementation in your trading portfolio.

Understanding the Basics Before we dive into the nuances of a bull call spread, it's crucial to grasp the fundamentals of options trading. Options are financial instruments that grant their holders the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) an underlying asset at a predetermined price (strike price) within a specified timeframe (expiration date). Options provide flexibility and can be used for hedging, speculation, or income generation.

A bull call spread is a bullish options strategy that involves buying a call option with a lower strike price and simultaneously selling a call option with a higher strike price on the same underlying asset and expiration date. This combination creates a net debit position, as the cost of the lower strike call is partially offset by the premium received from selling the higher strike call. The objective of a bull call spread is to profit from the anticipated upward movement in the underlying asset's price while limiting potential losses.

Mechanics of a Bull Call Spread Let's break down the components of a bull call spread: Buy a Lower Strike Call Option: The first step is to purchase a call option with a strike price that is below the current market price of the underlying asset. This lower strike call provides you with the right to buy the asset at a favorable price. Simultaneously Sell a Higher Strike Call Option: To offset the cost of the lower strike call, you sell a call option with a higher strike price.

This call option is often referred to as the "covered call." By selling the covered call, you are obligated to sell the underlying asset at the higher strike price if the option is exercised by the counterparty. Same Expiration Date: Both the lower strike call option and the higher strike call option must have the same expiration date, ensuring that the spread remains coherent throughout the trade's duration. Profit Potential A bull call spread offers several advantages, primarily associated with its profit potential and risk management: Limited Risk: One of the most attractive features of a bull call spread is its capped risk.

Your maximum loss is limited to the initial net debit paid to establish the position. This provides a level of security and predictability, which is crucial in volatile markets. Profit Potential: The profit potential of a bull call spread is also limited but defined.

It is the difference between the strike prices of the two call options minus the net premium paid to initiate the trade. As the underlying asset's price increases, your profit potential rises, up to a certain point. Lower Break-Even Point: Bull call spreads offer a lower break-even point compared to simply buying a call option.

This means the underlying asset's price doesn't need to increase as significantly for the strategy to become profitable. Considerations and Risks While the bull call spread is an appealing strategy, it's essential to be aware of the potential risks and factors to consider: Limited Profit Potential: One drawback of the bull call spread is that your profit potential is capped. If the underlying asset's price surges well beyond the higher strike price, your gains will remain capped at the difference between the two strike prices.

Breakeven and Losses: There is a breakeven point below which the strategy results in a loss. If the underlying asset's price doesn't rise enough to cover the initial premium outlay, you could experience a loss. Time Decay: Options contracts are subject to time decay, which erodes their value as the expiration date approaches.

This can affect the profitability of your bull call spread, especially if the underlying asset's price doesn't move as anticipated. Assignment Risk: When you sell a covered call as part of the strategy, you may be assigned the obligation to sell the underlying asset at the higher strike price if the option is exercised by the counterparty. Be prepared for this possibility and have a plan in place to manage it.

Conclusion In conclusion, the bull call spread is a valuable strategy in the world of options trading, especially for those with a bullish outlook on an underlying asset. It allows traders to benefit from price appreciation while managing risk and defining their potential gains and losses. By understanding the mechanics and considering the associated risks, you can incorporate this strategy into your trading arsenal to pursue your financial goals effectively.

As with any trading strategy, it's essential to conduct thorough research, practice, and possibly consult a financial advisor to ensure it aligns with your investment objectives and risk tolerance.