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With the Iran conflict reshaping energy markets, central banks turning hawkish, and gold in freefall despite the chaos, the safe haven playbook in 2026 is more complicated than ever.
Quick facts
- Gold has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high, despite an active war in the Middle East
- The Singapore dollar is near its strongest level against the USD since October 2014
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked rates to 4.10% in March 2026 as Iran-driven oil prices push Australian inflation higher
1. Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold remains the most widely traded safe haven globally. It benefits from geopolitical stress, US dollar weakness, and negative real interest rate environments. However, its short-term behaviour in 2026 demands explanation.
Despite an active war in the Middle East, gold has sold off sharply. The likely cause is the Fed trimming its 2026 rate cut projections, citing hotter-than-expected producer inflation and Strait of Hormuz-driven oil prices creating inflation persistence.
Ultimately, gold's bull case rests on falling real yields and a weaker dollar, and right now neither condition is in place. Traders should be aware that during an inflationary supply shock like the one the Iran conflict has delivered, gold does not always behave as expected.
However, if you zoom out, the longer-term picture reinforces gold’s safe-haven status, ending 2025 as one of its strongest years on record.
Key variables to watch: US Federal Reserve guidance, real yields, and USD direction.
2. Japanese Yen (JPY)
The yen has long functioned as a safe-haven currency thanks to Japan's status as the world's largest net creditor nation. In times of stress, Japanese investors tend to repatriate capital, driving the yen higher.
However, that dynamic seems to have shifted in 2026 so far. The yen is down 6.63% YoY, near its weakest level since July 2024, and surging oil import costs are weighing on the currency.
The yen's safe-haven role has not disappeared, though. It tends to reassert itself during sharp equity selloffs and liquidity events. But in an oil-driven inflation shock, it faces structural headwinds.
Key variables to watch: BOJ rate decisions, US-Japan yield differentials, and any intervention signals from Japanese authorities.
3. Swiss Franc (CHF)
Switzerland's political neutrality, account surplus, and strong institutional framework make the franc a reflexive safe-haven currency. Unlike the yen, the CHF is holding up in the current environment, with the franc gaining against the dollar in 2026, and EUR/CHF remaining stable.
For traders across Europe and the Middle East, CHF is often the first port of call during stress events.
Key variables to watch: Swiss National Bank intervention language, European geopolitical developments, and global risk indices.
4. US Treasury Bonds (US10Y)
Under normal conditions, US government bonds are some of the deepest, most liquid safe-haven instruments in the world. But 2026 is not normal conditions…
Yields have been rising, not falling, meaning bond prices are moving in the wrong direction for anyone seeking safety.
When yields rise during a risk-off event, it signals the market is treating bonds as an inflation risk rather than a safety asset.
However, short-duration Treasuries like bills and 2-year notes are a different story. They may offer higher income with less duration risk than longer-dated bonds, which is why some investors use them more defensively in volatile periods.
Key variables to watch: Fed communication, CPI and PCE data, and whether the 10Y yield breaks above 4.50% or pulls back below 4.00%.
5. Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar (AUD/USD): inverse play
The Australian dollar is widely considered a risk-on currency, tied closely to global commodity demand and Chinese growth.
In risk-off environments, AUD/USD typically falls. A falling AUD/USD can serve as a leading indicator of broader global stress, which can be useful context for traders with regional exposure.
The RBA hiking cycle (two hikes since the start of 2026) is providing some floor under the AUD, but in a sustained global risk-off move, that support has limits.
Key variables to watch: RBA forward guidance, Chinese PMI data, iron ore prices, and oil's impact on Australian inflation expectations.
6. US Dollar Index (DXY)
The US dollar acts as the world's reserve currency and a reflexive safe haven during acute stress. When liquidity dries up, global demand for USD tends to spike regardless of the underlying trend.
Over the past 12 months, the dollar has lost ground as global confidence in US fiscal trajectory has wavered. But over the past month, it has firmed, supported by a hawkish Fed and elevated geopolitical risk.
In risk-off environments, the USD continues to attract safe-haven flows. However, rising oil prices can increase inflation risks, complicating Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Key variables to watch: Fed rate path, US inflation data, and global liquidity conditions.
7. Singapore Dollar (SGD)
Less discussed globally but highly relevant across Southeast Asia, the SGD is one of the most quietly resilient currencies in the current environment.
The Singapore dollar has advanced to near its highest level since October 2014, supported by safe haven flows and investors drawn to Singapore's AAA-rated bonds, a dividend-heavy stock market, and predictable government policies.
The MAS manages the SGD through a nominal effective exchange rate band rather than an interest rate, giving it a different character from other safe-haven currencies.
For traders with exposure to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the broader ASEAN region, USD/SGD can act as a practical benchmark for regional risk appetite.
Key variables to watch: MAS policy band adjustments, regional trade flows, and USD/Asia dynamics more broadly.
8. Cash and Short-Duration Fixed Income
Sometimes, the most effective safe haven can be to simply reduce exposure. With central bank rates still elevated across major economies, cash and short-duration government bonds can offer a meaningful yield while sitting outside market risk.
The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.10% at its March meeting. The Bank of England held at 3.75%, while the ECB kept its deposit facility rate at 2.00% and main refinancing rate at 2.15%. Across all major economies, short-duration government paper is offering a real return for the first time in years.
In a volatile environment, capital preservation can sometimes matter more than return maximisation.
Key variables to watch: Central bank meeting calendars across all major economies, and any shifts in forward guidance on the rate path.
What to Watch Next
Fed inflation data. Core PCE is the single most important data point for gold, bonds, and the dollar right now. Any surprise in either direction could move all three simultaneously.
Yen intervention risk. The yen is near levels that have previously triggered action from Japanese authorities. Traders with Asia-Pacific exposure should monitor closely.
RBA's next move. With Australia now at 4.10% and inflation still above target, the question is whether the hiking cycle has further to run. The next RBA meeting is on 5 May.
Geopolitical trajectory. Any move toward de-escalation in the Middle East would quickly reduce safe haven demand and rotate capital back into risk assets. The reverse is equally true.
China's growth signal. A stronger-than-expected Chinese recovery could lift commodity currencies and reduce defensive positioning across Asia-Pacific.
The Longer-Term Lens
The 2026 environment is exposing that the effectiveness of safe haven assets depends on the type of shock, not just its severity.
An inflationary supply shock like the Iran conflict has delivered is one of the most difficult environments for traditional safe havens.
Gold falls as real yields rise. Bonds sell off as inflation expectations climb. Even the yen can weaken as Japan's import costs surge.
What has held up are assets with institutional credibility, managed frameworks, and deep liquidity regardless of macro conditions. The Swiss franc, Singapore dollar, and short-duration cash instruments fit that description better than gold or long bonds do right now.
In 2026, the question for traders is not "which safe haven?" It is "a safe haven from what?"
Position accumulation is to increase exposure to a currency pair, by adding a second (or more) position in the same trading direction. Although on the surface the opportunity to increase potential return is attractive, there are also risks that MUST be at the forefront of your thinking. Are you ready to accumulate?
Before considering position accumulation to your trading behaviour, it is worth considering two important aspects. This is not a strategy for the trader beginners, but rather when other systems are already in place such as a written trading plan that includes statements that reference risk management approaches, particularly that of appropriate position sizing and clear exit approaches. Also, logically, as you are potentially increasing exposure with this approach, it is not only having a trading plan that is important, but also a record of follow through with that plan.
We know disciplined trading is a challenge for some, so if this is something you are battling with than master this first. Why a profitable position only? It is crucial that this is one of the rules of any system you choose to develop.
Accumulating into a losing position (akin to ‘dollar cost averaging)’ should be considered a very high-risk strategy. The essence of this approach is that at each accumulation point, as you increase exposure, you manage the additional risk by moving a stop on previous positions at each accumulation point. Your position accumulation system As with any aspect of trading behaviour, a measurable set of statements that dictate your actions as part of your trading plan should be developed with reference to your position accumulation.
These statements may include as a minimum: a. Under what market circumstances you would consider accumulating e,g. strong uptrend confirmed across multiple timeframes. b. What technical signals are you going to use to signal the time to accumulate (e.g. if into a long position break of a key point, subsequent to confirmation of continued uptrend after a retracement. c.
Your trail-stop process e.g. at each accumulation point for all previously opened positions -all opened positions should be treated as one re, exit point. d. Position sizing e.g. accumulate no more than the original position, meaning if you enter 5 mini-lots initially that is the maximum you can add on each accumulation. e. Your maximum exposure e.g. 2 standard lots f.
Other exit points or reason to delay/refrain from accumulating further e.g. economic data. Once your system is complete then it should be tested prospectively, and amended as appropriate, prior to implanting in the reality of your trading practice. We trust this review of position accumulating will help in your choice as to whether to integrate this into your trading strategy and of course, some of the considerations that are worth exploring.
Discover the key MT4 tips and tricks to make you a power user The MetaTrader 4 (MT4 Platform) is arguably the world’s most popular electronic trading platform used by retail FX traders and professional fund managers alike. It was first released by MetaQuotes Software in 2005, and GO Markets was the first Australian Forex broker to offer it to their clients in 2006. Most of you reading this have a basic understanding of how to use the MT4 trading platform, for example, opening & closing a trade, placing a stop loss and loading your favourite indicators onto your charts.
Today I would like to share with you a few MT4 tips and tricks you may not be aware of. After servicing MT4 clients for over 10 years, these are our top 7 useful MT4 tips and tricks. Creating a Chart Template on MT4.
If you’re a trader that uses technical analysis, you probably use more than one indicator to determine your trades. A template allows you to overlay predefined indicators to a chart. Creating a template allows traders to load these predefined indicators, instead of having to set-up the indicators again each time you open a new chart.
For example, you can create a template which shows MACD, Momentum and RSI and use it on other charts. » Open a new chart. » Apply all the indicators you wish to use on that chart. » Right click on the chart. A drop down menu will appear. » Click on “Template”, then “Save Template”. » Name the Template, and then click on to “Save”. » To load your predefined indicators on a new chart, you can go back to the “Template” option and left click on “Load Template”. Here is a tutorial showing you how to do this: Saving a Profile on MT4 Once you set the layout of your platform, you then have the ability to save its profile.
Saving a profile is different to saving a template as it encompasses the complete layout or view of your MT4 platform. Profiles offer an easy way of working with groups of charts. When saving a profile, each chart with its settings is placed exactly in the same location where it was before.
All changes in all chart windows of the given list are automatically saved in the current profile. This differs from creating a template, where predefined indicators are saved on a single chart. » Set up a group of charts on your trading platform that you would like to work with » Go to File (top left-hand corner of the platform) » Choose “Profile” on the drop down menu » Then choose “Save As” on sub drop down menu » Name the new profile » To load your new profile, you can go back to the “Profile” option and left click on “Load Profile”. Here is a tutorial showing you how to do this Printing Out a Trading Statement Historical trades can be easily accessed by clicking on the “Account History” tab within the Terminal window.
Clients can get access to their full trade history or can choose custom or specific periods. For tax purposes, we get a number of our clients calling up to request a print out of their statement, not realising they can do this themselves. Follow the instructions below, hit print at the end and you can then send it to your accountant.
It really is that simple. Here’s how: » Go to Account History. » Choose desired period. » Right click anywhere in Account History. A drop down menu will appear. » Choose either “Save as Report” or “Save as Detailed Report”. » Then either right click and “Save as” or “Print”. » Note: Balance shown will always be the current balance.
Historical balances are not provided on MT4. Viewing Profit in Points, Terms Currency or Base Currency As a default, the profit and loss are viewed within the Terminal window as the Base (Deposit) Currency. For example, if your trading account is in AUD, and you were trading EURUSD, the profit & loss will automatically be shown in AUD.
However, you also have the option to view your profit & loss in Points or the Terms Currency. » Go to the Terminal Window. » Right click anywhere within the Terminal Window. A drop down menu will appear. » Hover your mouse over ‘Profit’ and a sub menu will also appear. » You then will be given a choice to view your profit in either Points, Terms Currency or Deposit Currency). » Note: To work out the number of pips form the Point figure, simply divide by 10. For example, 76 points equals 7.6 pips.
One Click Trading For those traders whose strategy involves placing trades in a timely and efficient manner, you now have the option of One Click Trading, reducing the time required to place a trade. Currently, the default mode for placing a trade on MT4 is a two-step process. The first step is bringing up a trade order window.
The second step is to select an appropriate order type, its parameters and confirm your order submission by clicking either Buy, Sell, Place, Modify or Close buttons depending on the order type selected and your trading intentions. Using this default, your order will not be submitted until you have completed both of the above steps. MetaTrader's One Click Trading mode for order submission ("One-click trading") is a one-step process.
Using the One Click Trading mode, your order will be submitted when you: Single-click either bid (SELL) or ask (BUY) rate buttons either: » On the Trading tab in the Market Watch window » On the One Click Trading panel of a chart » On close pending orders or delete stop levels on the Trade tab of the Terminal window There will be no subsequent confirmation prompt for you to click. You will not be able to withdraw or change your order once you click. You can activate or deactivate One Click Trading mode on the Trade tab or Options window of the terminal.
Chart Scrolling to the Left If you’re new to MT4, you may find it difficult to scroll your charts to the left of your screen (i.e. to look at historical data). You may experience the chart jumping to right and reverting back to the current price action. To prevent this from happening, simply ensure the following icon on your tool bar is not enabled.
With the left arrow key on your keyboard, you are now able to easily scroll back to look at historical data on your chart, without it continually jumping to the most recent price action. When you are new to MT4, this can be very frustrating, especially when you are looking to backtest a trading idea or system. MetaTrader 4 Short Cut Keys There are several shortcut keys that can be used to make navigating on the MT4 platform easier and more efficient.
Below are the most common ones: » Left Arrow – Chart scrolling to the left » Right Arrow – Chart scrolling to the right » F1 – Opens “User Guide” » F2 – Opens “History Centre” window » F8 – Opens the chart setup window » F9 – Opens the “New Order” window » F11 – Enable or Disable the full-screen mode » F12 – Move the chart by one bar to the left » Shift/F12 - Move the chart by one bar to the right » Home – Move the chart to the start point » End – Move the chart to the end point So there you have our top 7 MetaTrader (MT4) tips and tricks. As mentioned at the start, there are many more common tips, but we wanted to run with some of the less obvious ones that our clients have found to be extremely useful. For more on trading Forex check out our Forex Trading Education Centre, MetaTrader 4 Tutorials, or open a free MetaTrader 4 demo account.
Please note that trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment. Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. You should only trade if you can afford to carry these risks.
Our offer is not designed to alter or modify any individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies. Rom Revita | Sales Manager Rom is the Sales Manager at Go Markets Pty Ltd and manages the day-to-day running of the Sales, Support and Marketing teams. He has been with the company since 2013 and is also one of our two appointed Responsible Managers, helping to ensure that the company follows all AFSL regulatory requirements.
Rom has extensive financial markets experience and originally comes from an equities & derivatives trading background. He has served on the Trading & Sales Desk with several large broking houses, and now specialises in Margin FX and CFDs.
One Emotional Discipline: This is the precise reason why not everyone can trade. Understanding the fundamentals of the market is not beyond you and learning a technical system that provides an edge in the market is certainly not hugely challenging. However learning the skill of emotional discipline is the greatest profit making skill great traders have.
To develop the emotional discipline that all great traders have takes time and it takes a lot of patience but it can be done. There are 3 things that can help you develop the emotional discipline required. » Most budding forex traders in my experience trade too much resulting in a “duck hunter” approach rather than a “sniper” approach. The result is they trade emotionally instead of logically following a specific trading plan.
Over many years I have seen forex traders substantially improve their trading results by simply trading less. » One thing you need as a trader is time, time to learn the skill of trading and being able to stay in the game without blowing your trading account. Nobody makes it in this business without experiencing trading losses however you need to fail gracefully and this means losing small and winning bigger. » Rather than looking at your forex trades in a win-loss fashion consider looking at your trade results in blocks of 10 trades. Trading is a numbers game and if you have a specific currency trading plan that has an edge then you have a historical probability of success, you just need to see it through and play the system properly.
The system or your results cannot be measured over one, two or even three forex trades. Great trades understand the numbers game over time and it allows them to develop the emotional discipline. Two Focus: Think about someone that you know to be successful and wealthy.
There is a strong possibility that person achieved their success and wealth from being a specialist in one field. Steve Jobs was successful at building computers, Richard Branson made his first fortune selling records, Rupert Murdoch made his fortune selling Newspapers, George Soros made his fortune trading currencies and Warren Buffett made his fortune buying companies on the stock market. They applied incredible focus to the business they were in and initially did not diversify.
It was this single-minded focus on one thing that drove them to the success and yes many of them have diversified since. But they focused on one thing to start with. So I believe you will improve your probability of trading success by focusing on one market and becoming a specialist in that market.
It will allow you to focus intently on what is driving that market, it will allow you to focus on becoming the detective that you need to be and it will allow you to likely find value in a market before everyone else has figured out what you are considering buying is a good idea. Consider focusing on one market and become your own master of that market and you will likely improve the chances of your success. Watch your inbox for the link to join Senior Currency Analyst and Sky News Money host Andrew Barnett for weekly free live currency coaching sessions.
They are at 7pm AEST every Wednesday. Andrew Barnett | Director / Senior Currency Analyst Andrew Barnett is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts, and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Connect with Andrew: Email