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波动性有一种不请自来的方式。
有一天,澳大利亚证券交易所正在悄然波动... 第二天,保证金要求上升,止损未达到预期,投资组合开盘时出现令人不安的隔夜缺口。
如果您一直在寻找答案,那么您并不孤单。澳大利亚交易者中一些最常搜索的有关波动性的问题与追加保证金、滑点、隔夜缺口、杠杆交易所交易基金(ETF)以及平均真实区间(ATR)等工具有关。
以下是正在发生的事情。
为什么现在这很重要
全球市场对利率、通货膨胀数据、地缘政治和技术驱动的流动变得更加敏感。当流动性减少和不确定性增加时,价格波动就会扩大。那就是波动性。
波动性不仅会影响价格方向,还会改变交易的执行方式、需要多少资本以及表面之下的风险表现。
翻译:波动性不仅仅是更大的波动,而是更快的走势和更少的流动性——那是交易机制最重要的时候。
想要真实世界的波动率案例研究吗?
为什么我的经纪人提高了保证金要求?
关于波动率的搜索最多的问题之一是为什么保证金要求在没有警告的情况下增加。
当市场变得不稳定时,经纪商可能会提高差价合约(CFD)和其他杠杆产品的保证金要求。较大的价格波动会增加账户转为负资产的风险,因此提高保证金要求会降低可用杠杆率,并有助于在极端条件下管理风险敞口。
这在实践中可能意味着什么
-即使价格没有显著变动,也可能会出现追加保证金的情况。
-有效杠杆率可能会迅速下降。
-可能需要在短时间内减少职位。
保证金调整通常是对不断变化的市场风险的回应,而不是随机决定。在高度波动的市场中,谨慎的做法是假设保证金设置可以迅速变化,因此,许多交易者选择根据这种风险来审查头寸规模和可用缓冲区。
什么是滑点?为什么我的止损没有按我的价格成交?
另一个经常搜索的话题是滑点。
当止损单触发并以下一个可用价格执行时,可能会发生滑点,结果可能取决于订单类型、市场流动性和缺口。在平静的市场中,差异可能很小,而在快速市场中,价格可能会跳出止损水平。

常见的驱动程序包括
-主要经济或财报发布。
-流动性薄弱。
-拥挤的停车位。
-通宵会议。
止损订单通常优先执行而不是价格确定性,在高波动时期,这种区别变得很重要。根据典型的价格走势调整头寸规模和设置止损可能比在不稳定条件下简单地收紧止损更有效。
如何管理澳大利亚证券交易所的隔夜差距?
澳大利亚在美国沉睡的时候进行贸易,反之亦然。遗憾的是,这种时区差异是澳大利亚交易者经常寻找隔夜缺口风险的原因之一。如果美国市场大幅下跌,澳大利亚证券交易所可能会在第二天早上开盘走低,在收盘和开盘之间没有机会退出。
市场交易者可能使用的风险管理方法的示例包括
-使用澳大利亚证券交易所200指数期货或差价合约*进行指数套期保值。
-在高风险事件期间进行部分对冲。
-在重大宏观公告发布之前减少风险敞口。
套期保值可以抵消部分走势,但会带来基础风险,因为个别股票的走势可能与整体指数不一致。
没有完美的保护,只有在成本、复杂性和风险降低之间进行权衡。
*差价合约是复杂的工具,由于杠杆作用,存在很高的亏损风险。
在波动的市场中,杠杆或反向ETF的主要风险是什么?
在波动性加剧的时期,通常会搜索杠杆和反向ETF。
虽然这些产品通常每天重置,但它们的目标是提供该指数每日回报的倍数,而不是其长期回报。在波动的横盘行情中,即使指数收盘价接近起始水平,每日复利也可能侵蚀价值。

之所以发生这种情况,是因为收益和损失不对称地复合。下降10%需要超过10%的收益才能恢复。当这种影响每天成倍增长时,随着时间的推移,结果可能会与基础指数出现重大差异。
一些市场参与者可能会在战术上使用此类工具。它们通常不是作为长期对冲工具设计的,在将它们用于策略之前,了解它们的结构至关重要。
如何使用 ATR 为止损位置提供信息?
平均真实波动范围(ATR)是衡量波动率的常用指标。
ATR 估算资产在给定时期内通常会有多少波动,包括缺口。一些交易者没有将止损设置为任意百分比,而是参考ATR并将止损设置为倍数,例如ATR的两到三倍,以反映当前情况。
当波动率上升时,ATR 会扩大,如果要保持总体风险不变,这可能意味着更大的止损或更小的头寸规模。这种转变不是问:“我愿意输多远?”改为问:“在当前条件下,正常的举动是什么?”
波动市场中的实际注意事项
在波动性加剧的时期,交易者可以考虑
- 考虑到保证金变动的可能性
- 如果波动率增加,则保守地调整头寸
- 认识到止损单并不能保证特定的退出价格
- 在重大经济事件发生之前审查风险敞口
- 了解杠杆ETF的每日重置机制
- 使用诸如ATR之类的波动率指标来为止损设置提供信息
- 保持足够的现金缓冲区
波动率并不能仅奖励预测。准备和风险意识可以帮助交易者了解潜在的风险,但结果仍然不可预测。
阅读:全球波动性以及如何交易差价合约
这对澳大利亚交易者意味着什么
与亚洲和美国市场相比,澳大利亚市场面临着特定的结构性考虑。隔夜缺口风险受美国交易时间的影响,澳大利亚证券交易所等资源密集型指数可以快速应对大宗商品价格走势和来自中国的数据。货币敞口,包括澳元和美元(USD)的走势,可能会增加另一层波动性。
各地区的波动性并不均匀。根据市场结构和流动性深度,它的行为会有所不同。
有关波动率的常见问题
是什么原因导致市场波动突然飙升?
利率决定、通货膨胀数据、地缘政治发展、盈利意外和流动性限制是常见的触发因素。
为什么经纪人在动荡的市场中增加利润?
减少杠杆风险敞口并在价格波动扩大时管理风险。
在波动期间,止损订单会失败吗?
如果市场跳空超过止损水平,他们可能会出现下滑,这意味着执行的价格可能低于预期。在快速或流动性不足的市场中,这种差异可能很大。
杠杆ETF适合长期对冲吗?
由于每日重置,它们通常是针对短期风险敞口而设计的。它们是否合适取决于您的目标、财务状况和风险承受能力。
在进行交易之前如何衡量波动率?
ATR、隐含波动率指标和历史区间分析等工具可以帮助量化当前状况。
风险警告:波动加剧的时期可能导致价格快速变动、利润率变化以及以不同于预期的价格执行。止损订单和波动率指标等风险管理工具可能有助于评估市场状况,但不能消除损失风险,尤其是在使用杠杆产品时。


Success leaves clues, and over the years as an educator and coach, I can confidently say that there are several things that traders who achieve positive trading outcomes appear to do, that less successful traders are not doing. One of these is to have a daily agenda or habits that go alongside direct trading activities with the aims of getting and staying in the optimum “state” to trade and to facilitate consistency in action. Here are 5 observations to consider… #1 – Check in on your potential “trading state” before you look at the market We have discussed in previous articles the advantages of making decisions when you are in an optimum state to do this.
I highly recommend you read my 10 Ways to Manage Your Trading Psychology – a Blueprint for Development post if you haven't already. If one constantly interacts with the market, consistent and constructive action may be more difficult. Therefore, logically "checking in" where you are before you start your trading day becomes even more necessary.
It may be there are things going on in your non-trading world that are significant enough to be a justifiable distraction and require attention, or you are not in the best of health. However, it's important to realise that the markets WILL always be there. There are times when it is good to trade and times when you should give yourself permission not to. #2 – Re-align with trading purpose and plan at the start of your trading day Your trading purpose, or your reason for trading, is your start point for developing strategies that are consistent with your trading objectives.
Your trading plan is your “guiding light” in making this purpose happen. Every trading decision should relate to these, and without it, traders have a lower chance of creating the trading outcomes they desire. In the “heat of the market”, it is easy to get “sucked in” to the price action of open trades as you see your trading capital moving up and down.
Without the explicit instruction of a pre-prepared plan, it becomes more difficult to maintain the consistency and clarity that it is already characteristic of experienced traders. Touching base, or re-aligning with these at the start of your trading day offers a reminder as to the why and how you will think, decide and act in the hours to come. #3 – Make a judgment on what to expect Every day the market throws up different challenges, different price movements, volatility, and new economic information, influencing overall market sentiment. Advanced traders take the time to make an overview judgment on what is happening and adjust decisions on time-frames traded, risk level or chosen strategies, accordingly.
For example, one of the possibilities we have discussed in a previous article and in Inner Circle sessions is the concept of adjusting risk level according to the strength of the signal or underlying market conditions. What we mean by this is that if our normal tolerable risk level is 2% of our trading account capital on each trade as a standard and we note increased market uncertainty indicated by higher price volatility, but identify a potential opportunity for entry, we may adjust that risk level to 1% in light of this observation. Having a system to make a judgment prior to trading allows this sort of approach to be taken, making it an unquestionable attribute of an experienced trader. #4 – Check in with yourself at key points during your trading day Your emotional state can, and often will change throughout your trading day, primarily dependent on either the results you are getting or your judgment on performance.
We are all familiar with the concept of ‘revenge trading’ if a trade, or series of trades move against you. This is at the extreme end of capital damaging emotional state. Equally and more insidiously dangerous is a succession of wins or losses where your consistency may waver, either originating from a belief that you can perhaps “feel the market” or begin to doubt yourself as a trader.
A potential solution is to have it written in your plan that if either of these scenarios is the case, then you could move away from the market for a period of time, enabling you to reset, re-align and revisit the market later on with a refreshed sense of purpose and plan. #5 – Review your day including completion of journaling tasks Formal review of performance is a critical part of on-going trading development. We have discussed many times the benefits of keeping a journal record of your trades, within not only measure outcomes, but the decisions that were taken to create these. Completing your journal daily may identify common threads of both things that went well (and you can mirror going forward) as well as potential areas for development.
Experienced traders who do this give themselves that important chance of sustainable growth which appears to be a key factor in long term trading outcomes. To summarise, you always have a choice as to whether you integrate what you read into your trading. In this case, it is the choice of having a daily agenda that can contribute positively to your long term trading strategy.
Every week I run education webinars offering innovative and comprehensive learning across all aspects of trading knowledge and practice. If you would like to expand your knowledge and build your confidence as a trader while also connecting with other Forex and CFD traders, register here.


One of the most common questions we are asked on some of the webinar sessions we run is “What timeframe might be best for me to trade?”. This slightly longer article than we would usually write, seemed merited to provide some detailed “food for thought” as it appears to be an important issue for many. This is not something we can answer for you as an individual, as which timeframe(s) you choose to trade is a personal choice, but the purpose of this article is to put forward some of the considerations that you should contemplate as you make this decision for yourself.
Generally speaking, and to offer up some sort of definition for the purposes of this article, traders choose to trade: Shorter (fast) timeframes intraday (1-15 mins) Medium timeframes intraday (30mins-4 hourly) Longer (slow timeframes) daily (4-hourly-daily) There are usually two common motivations that may lead the trader to consider a change in the timeframes they are currently trading: a. Having difficulties “fitting” trading around other life activities. b. Believe that changing timeframes may produce improved results (or same results with less impact on lifestyle).
Before moving on further, and particularly if in the “b” group ask yourself this key question: Should I be considering a timeframe change at all or are there other priorities I should have? Before considering a timeframe change, we assume that you have the following in place: You have a written trading plan/system that specifies entry, exit and position sizing criteria AND the timeframe(s) you are currently trading. You look at the market before making any decision related to entry (including pending orders), initial risk minimising exit (stop loss), profit targets, and any trailing of your initial stop.
You consider economic data/announcements as part of your decision-making processes and understand the different impact that different types of “news” can create. You have a method through which you can determine the success or otherwise of the decisions you make including that of timeframes traded (e.g. a trading journal). If you do not have ALL the above in place, then perhaps your priority may NOT be deciding whether to change timeframes.
So, with a tick placed by the above, if it is right to consider a change in time-frame, there are commonly three overview factors to consider. 1. Your access to the market (screen-time – how much and when). 2. Flexibility (how frequently you can touch base with the live market). 3.
Competence and understanding relating to the practical trading implications of any timeframe including trading set ups and risk management including position sizing. Let’s explore these in a little more detail with FOUR key considerations: 1. Technical considerations Here is the good news…The following are relevant in ANY and MULTIPLE timeframes: Chart patterns Candle information Indicator usage in entry and exit systems If you are moving to a longer time-frame consider: Differences in key chart values (e.g. volatility).
You need to adjust your thinking in terms of what is the norm for the timeframe you are looking at. So, for example a 40 pip move in a 4-hourly chart may be the normal value whereas on a 15-minute chart this would be a massive move. Key data times.
There are critical points in the day where there may be several economic data releases in a relatively short time-span. These usually coincide with the opening of relevant equity market open. So, for example most of the significant data out of the US will be released within a two-hour window straddling the US stock market open (8.30-10.30 US EST).
Hence price action seen on charts, will usually be at its most active during these times. Get to know these if you are trading longer term timeframes. 2. Risk and position size considerations: With faster timeframes, traders generally: • Open larger positions with the trading idea of a smaller Pip move. • Have a tighter Pip stop loss as even smaller movements impact significantly on dollar outcome. • Are aware the even “less significant data” can create more relative market “noise” and need to have this factored into trading entry and exits decisions.
With slower timeframes, traders generally: • Open smaller positions with the aim of a larger Pip move. Tighter Pip stop loss as even smaller movements impact significantly on dollar outcome. • Have a wider stop-loss as smaller movements irrelevant and so there is less chance of being taken out by price movement “noise” within a longer price move. • Are aware that relative major movements are from major data points (and therefore need to learn what these are). 3. Practical considerations Firstly, look at the time you have to invest in your trading (and this may be subject to negotiation with partners etc., and of course with what else is going on in your life).
If you are planning ring-fencing screen time, for example a couple of hours per day, then giving the attention to trading shorter timeframes may be more viable. If it difficult to access larger amount of “block” time but short frequent touch base with the market is possible, then longer timeframes may be more suitable. Generally speaking, to give an example of how the latter may work in practical terms, you may have a trail stop strategy that you wish to adjust at the close of each candle/bar.
If this is the case, then if you can check in hourly, an hourly timeframe may work for you. Four other things to consider: Even if trading longer timeframes some trader choose to use a shorter timeframe to ‘refine’ entry, if trading a daily chart. After entry, as stated previously you should subsequently stick to the longer timeframe for decisions.
If trading shorter timeframes, many traders use a daily chart for the “big picture” to identify long term trends (to avoid trading against these) or to identify longer term key price points (e.g. well-established support and resistance). There are some trading approaches that are promoted as being daily approaches e.g. Inside bar.
Holding costs are associated with daily chart trading and of course you can touch base with your account manager for further clarity). 4. Mindset Considerations: Any article on just about anything to do with trading would not be complete without some reference to the psychological and subsequent behavioural aspects of the topic. Here are some of the common mindset issues to consider: With shorter timeframes: • It is easier to get sucked in to watching price movements (i.e. ‘staring’ at the P/L column continuously) that may evoke emotional decision making rather than be based on your trading system and CHART price action. • Short term trading is perceived as being more “exciting”.
If you find this resonates ask yourself are you really trading for excitement or for profit? • Your business is “done for the day” when you are finished trading which means you are not “distracted” by the market when other life things should have your focus. With longer timeframes: • Not generally “peddled” as an advantage of FX trading by the “gurus” out there. Therefore, it may feel that to trade daily charts is going ‘against the norm’ and may feel uncomfortably strange at first. • If you have traded shorter timeframes previously, it is a habit you may have to work at breaking and resist the temptation to take a “sneak peek” at shorter timeframe charts, and alter your decision-making. • There are many “experts” you will see wheeled on to give an opinion on CNBC, Bloomberg etc that have a prediction about what may happen in the future to any currency (or index/commodity if trading CFDs).
Remember: a. These “experts” are not your ticket to riches but are there to make interesting TV as well as provide some insight. Indeed, you will often find contrary experts brought on at different times in the day.
Their opinions should be viewed as you would with any “hot tip” i.e. thank you ‘Mr Expert’, but does it fit my trading plan? b. There is a greater temptation to move away from one of the golden rules of system trading i.e. “Trading what you see rather than what you think” (or what the experts think)”. • May occupy thinking throughout the day and so may be more difficult to “let go” and give the focus to the rest of your world outside trading. And to finish….
What happens next is down to you! If you haven’t tried to trade longer/shorter timeframes why don’t you test it out (but see point re, should it be your priority). Trade as you do now LIVE and trade different timeframe on demo.
Compare not only the results but the impact on the rest of your life activities. Journaling may help. You may make the choice to trade multiple timeframes.
If you do then you should make sure this is reflected in your trading plan/system and what market circumstances would lead you to trade which timeframes. We trust that this has been useful, even if the outcome is that you make the decision to continue to trade your current chosen timeframes and of course please feel free to share this article if you think it would benefit others (it’s easy just click on one of the social media links to make it happen). Finally, if you are not part of the growing GO Markets ‘Inner Circle’ community, where you can access weekly education sessions, you are invited to join our Facebook group "Time For a Change?
Considering Longer or Shorter Timeframe FX and CFD Trading " is written by Mike Smith - an external Analyst and is based on his independent analysis. He remains fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
For more information on trading, check out our forex trading webinar.


Using profits targets in trading, irrespective of trading vehicle chosen (e.g. Forex, Index/commodity CFDs, Share CFDs), is commonly discussed as potential exit strategy. The reality however is that these are often executed with a lack of consistency with ambiguity in trading plan statements.
This article revisits profit targets and outlines some key issues to consider in your trading plan. The terms “take profit” (or T/P on your trading platform) and “profit target” are interchangeable. What do we mean a profit target?
Like a stop loss, (though obviously related to taken a profit rather than a loss), a profit target is a pre-set price point (decided on entry) at which you have chosen to exit. The main two considerations as a trader are: When do I use a profit target? Where do a place it?
When do I use a profit target? Essentially there are three choices namely never, always or intermittently. These invariably tend to match three distinct trading styles of the individual trader.
Those who NEVER use a profit target tend to be shorter term traders (less than 30 mins time-frame) who are “in the market” for a set period of time during the day and will close all positions at the end of their ring-fenced time. Ideally there with associated use of a trail stop system. Those who ALWAYS use a profit target go across multiple time-frames, still using an initial and trail stop but often either use: Key price points i.e. placed above the next support if in a short trade or below the next resistance if in a long trade.
A multiple of risk e.g. if using a 2:1 ratio then x2 the risk level. Using this ratio as an example if your initial stop is placed 10 pips below entry in a long trade then the profit target is placed 20 pips above entry. Even if one is using key price points as your norm, this may be useful in those situations where no previous technical landmark exists e.g. when a price hits a new price high.
Those who PARTIALLY use a profit are commonly those who will trade without one whilst watching the market but when they move away will put one in place e.g. when holding a position overnight. So, your first choice is simple, which of these three is a ‘fit’ for you. Where do I place it?
We have spoken previously about the need to be specific in your plan to facilitate consistency and measurement. As with any other component part of your trading plan, your profit target is no different. Here are some suggestions: If you are choosing a key price point as your guide to placing your profit the be specific regarding how far away.
Please note: to use ‘Pips”/Cents/Points may not translate across time-frames e.g. in technical terms 10 Pips above a support in a 5 minute time-frame is very different relatively speaking to 10 Pips on an hourly chart. Therefore, it may be worth considering something like an ATR (or fraction of) which takes into account the standard movement in a particular time-frame e.g. 0.5 ATR above an identified support level. If you are choosing to use the concept of risk/reward ratio as previous discussed, then your placement of profit target is dependent on the initial stop level you set.
Then this becomes a simple maths calculation. So, absolutely clarity about how you are placing this initial stop e.g. technical landmark is the specificity that you need to work on. And finally… Bear in mind of course that: Other exit strategies that are part of your plan for open trades such as your initial and trail stop or your approach when there is an imminent economic announcement are still part of your decision-making, even if you have a profit target in place.
These need equal unambiguity when articulated in your trading plan as with your profit target. Once you have ‘planted your flag’ and of course traded your specific plan with a critical mass of trades, you are then in a position to test different parameters e.g. alternative distances away from a key price point. Your mission from here is to decide whether and how you are going to use profit targets and subsequent to write placement details in your plan...and then of course follow through with the discipline to trade it.
Mike Smith Educator and course facilitator GO Markets Disclaimer The article from GO Markets analysts is based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs.
Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.


When we first start to trade, or subsequently (as a more experienced trader) when we trade a new symbol or system we are often “excited” as we see a “hope” for better results. We often forget that the development of expertise in other areas we have in life (think about what you do in work now for example), you must invest time, effort, learning and making mistakes (providing you acknowledge and learn from them) to develop. This is not an overnight transformation, rather it may take several weeks if not months before you feel confident in your knowledge and skills.
It is bizarre therefore that we should expect anything different with trading development. To be clear, we respect and commend those who take the leap and move from demo to live account. After all, a demo platform ( you can trial a MetaTrader 4 or MT 5 demo account here ) will serve you in learning how the platform works, how to add indicators and get used to how markets move.
However, it is only when you start to have some “skin in the game” and are trading YOUR money, albeit with tiny positions to start with that you learn the most important lessons in trading and develop the appropriate mindset to begin to think about trading larger positions. All that been said, we see time and time again new traders or those trading a new system exhibiting three cardinal sins of the developmental trader, and decide to trade: a. With positions that are too big b.
Short cutting learning and system development c. Strategy skipping (i.e. moving from new system to new system) without meaningful measurement as to what works for you (and what doesn’t) or indeed whether the problem is YOU failing to trade a system religiously. These are all symptoms of impatience, of wanting to get massive returns quickly and without putting the hard yards in at the front end.
Remember this… The purpose of your trading when you start trading a live account should not be huge profit, rather it is to develop the confidence in your system, consistency in action and the measure whether what you are doing could be improved. Although it may seem strange to suggest, it is this and not, in the early stage of trading, the money (and level of profit) is most relevant in your potential lifelong career as a trader. It is through patience, and adhering to that initial purpose that you can gain sufficient confidence and competence to trade larger positions (after all it is just moving a decimal point to go from 1 mini-lot to a standard lot) and put the right foundations in to move forward.
Exercising patience to have the right things in place will serve you well for a potential lifetime of trading, to be impatient may mean your trading lasts but a few weeks or months. It is really that simple. Mike Smith Educator GO Markets Disclaimer The article from GO Markets analysts is based on their independent analysis.
Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.


Obviously, one of the major differences between trading shares or share market derivatives (e.g. Share CFDs and Options) compared to other instruments such as Forex and Index or Commodity CFDs, is the daily set market hours and the risk of potentially significant differences in price between the close of one trading session and the opening of the next. GO Markets offer the opportunity to trade both Share CFDs on the Australian and US equity markets on your MT5 platform.
For reference, those of you that are new to this as a trading vehicle, the ASX opens from 10am to 4pm Australian Eastern time, whereas the US equity markets open from 9.30am through to 4.00pm US EST. Why gapping occurs Focusing on the ASX as an example, there are many events and economic announcements than can occur in the 18 hour “gap” between close on one day and open the next, as well as often the Australian markets responding to what has happened in the US “overnight”. This additional information is what creates the “gap”.
You will already have in your plan the need to be especially cautious prior to earnings release (or similar) for any companies due to report. Such releases commonly occur outside of market trading hours. This, more than any other situation, can create major ‘gapping’.
Recognising this is the case, many traders avoid entering trades in companies where this is imminent. Hence the inclusion of finding this out prior to entering any trade as part of your plan seems logical as part of your risk management. So, what can you do?
Although we cannot predict what will happen there are potentially “clues” that can be tested and may help in decision making relating to the market risk, (and so potential for major gapping). Remember these are “clues” only particularly relevant to short-term share CFD trading (and may be less of an issue for those intending to hold for the long-term). Such “clues” may help you make decisions on: Which direction to trade (e.g. long or short entry opportunities) Position-sizing approaches (e.g. if there are major announcements one may choose to enter smaller sized trades For efficiency in terms of your time, it could be argued that this “daily ritual” should be performed prior to looking at specific stock charts at the start of any trading day.
Here are five clues that you may choose to consider: 1. ASX trend including closing candle (daily chart) Experienced traders generally support the concept of trading with the trend as a common approach. Also, the closing price of the day is also thought to be the most important in terms of the buyer/seller “battle”.
Bear in mind also, that by its nature, a movement in the overall index reflects the sentiment towards the shares that comprise it If you accept that this is an approach that you wish to employ in your trading, then logically you should only consider a “long trade” when the overall market is in uptrend and short trades when in downtrend. Additionally, it is generally accepted that a close in the top third of a candle is more likely to see follow through than if towards the bottom of the candle. 2. US trend and futures direction and degree of potential movement (Daily chart US500) If one subscribes to the idea that the ASX will commonly reflect the performance of US markets, then there are already “clues” as to what may happen through looking at the US futures.
Although these can and usually do change as more information is released, again logically, you need to ask the question as to whether trading against what the futures are telling you could happen is worth integrating into your trading plan. For example, this could look like “If I am looking at a long trade on the ASX, I will position size half of the level which I would normally do, if US futures are down in excess of 0.3%”. 3. The VIX index trend The VIX index (sometimes termed the “fear index”) reflects implied volatility of options (so is forward looking).
It is commonly recognised that there is an inverse relationship between movement in the VIX and the S&P500. Hence, a movement up in the VIX could be interpreted as an indication the market is getting “anxious” and so there may be a sell off (and visa versa ). Some have also suggested that on some occasions you may see a movement in the VIX prior to the market move.
Whether this is the case or not in reality is up to your judgement. Again, you need to make a choice as to whether to integrate this into your risk assessment of the market as a whole and articulate in your trading plan accordingly. 4. Economic data As with other trading instruments you will already be familiar with the fact that short term market sentiment may change with the new information, or expectations, from major economic data.
Remember equity markets may respond differently in terms of both relevance and volatility to other instruments e.g., a perceived increased likelihood of an interest rate cut for example following a stronger than expected employment report will be bullish for equity markets but negative for the relevant currency. Also, there may be economic data normally of low impact to Forex but may impact on specific sector shares significantly e.g. New home sales figures may create little disturbance to currencies in comparison to other data points but may have a significant impact on home building companies. 5.
Specific sector information An obvious example of this would be that every Wednesday morning in the US the EIA release oil inventory figures showing either a draw-down or increase in supply. If this moves from that which was expected, then there may be a noticeable move in oil price. So, logically it makes sense to exercise more caution if considering an energy stock CFD on a Wednesday in trading on the ASX.
In summary… As is the case always, effective risk management is a critical cornerstone to achieving positive trading outcomes. Risk management interventions may be either to consider whether not only to enter a position (or exit an open one), but also the size of the position you choose to enter. Although, we are not aiming to be prescriptive, after all it is you who make the choices in ALL your trading decisions.
We have discussed some things for your consideration in managing the “gap” with share CFDs. It is now over to you, to make decisions as to what is right for you, and of course to articulate this within your own trading plan. Please drop an email with any questions or comments related to the session to [email protected] Mike Smith Educator GO Markets Disclaimer The article from GO Markets analysts is based on their independent analysis.
Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.


Market sentiment towards a currency pair, and hence price, changes when new information comes into the market. The most common situation that creates such a change is the release of economic data. These are planned in terms of timing to theoretically offer no market participant an advantage over another market participant.
Economic data revised For those of you who are less experienced traders it is worth pointing out three important points: a. Some economic data releases have the potential to make a greater impact on market sentiment than others. It is beyond the scope of this article to explore this in detail, however major data points include for example GDP, jobs data, CPI (inflation measure), and interest rate decisions. b.
It is not the number per se but rather the comparison against what is expected. There is a market consensus “baked into the price” already, a projection in other words, as to what is likely to happen to major data points. So, it is the closeness or otherwise to this expected figure that is the key factor.
A big miss in either direction is likely to have a far more significant impact on market sentiment than a figure that is at, or close to, expectations. c. Also, the importance of a data point is to some degree relative to the timeframe you are trading. For example, in a shorter-term position where you position higher but are aiming for a smaller Pip move to take profit, economic data is more important, than perhaps when trading a daily chart.
As a Forex trader, you have one key fact in your favour is that the time of these announcements is entirely predictable. What this means to you is that you can make a choice and “programme” into your trading plan potential action(s) when faced with the prospect of significant imminent data release. Your trading choices Assuming you already have a defined exit general strategy in place for open positions that includes having a trailing “stop” should a trade move in your desired direction, you have THREE potential choices to make.
Accepted good general trading practice would be that you “plant your flag” in one of these as your standard. Once you have planned and implanted this, then you can prospectively test the other two, to determine which is the optimum individual “fit” for you as a trader. Your three choices are: A.
To close any open positions that are likely to be impacted by the data release to remove the risk of loss from your existing dollar result in the position. Although reducing downside risk you are also risking losing fast upside potential, should price move quickly in the direction of your trade. B.
To do nothing new i.e. adhere to your normal trail stop strategy. In this case you have retained the opportunity of upside potential whilst increasing the dollar risk associated with your wider stop (compared to the next option) being triggered. It is worth bearing in mind with this, and the subsequent choice we will discuss, there is always chance of some slippage i.e. not been filled at expected order price.
The risk of this is that it’s highest with the often-higher volatility situation following data release. C. To tighten your normal approach to trailing a stop e.g., if your norm is to trail your stop to within 20 Pips you could choose to tighten to within 10 Pips of current price pre data release as part of your system.
What this means to you is that if a trend does reverse and trigger your stop it will be at a better level, whilst still giving you any upside potential. What these all mean to you: A. Articulate within your trading plan what is your primary approach and clear any unambiguous situations where you may vary this.
B. As stated before, choose to trade the approach that you prefer right now, and then compare potential results against the other two.
