股息率最高的，也是非常稳定的一家公司，离不开这家公司的产品的人群非常稳定，就是烟草公司。奥驰亚集团（Altria Group Inc.，股票代码：MO）股息率约8.4%，股息增长记录 连续54年。在2023年，奥驰亚的净营收为244.8亿美元，支付的股息总额为68亿美元。如果大家想安全的和公司一起成长，这一类现金流稳定的半垄断公司，非常值得在2025年考虑。
免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管
By
Jacky Wang
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免责声明：文章来自 GO Markets 分析师和参与者，基于他们的独立分析或个人经验。表达的观点、意见或交易风格仅代表作者个人，不代表 GO Markets 立场。建议，（如有），具有“普遍”性，并非基于您的个人目标、财务状况或需求。在根据建议采取行动之前，请考虑该建议（如有）对您的目标、财务状况和需求的适用程度。如果建议与购买特定金融产品有关，您应该在做出任何决定之前了解并考虑该产品的产品披露声明 (PDS) 和金融服务指南 (FSG)。
股息率最高的，也是非常稳定的一家公司，离不开这家公司的产品的人群非常稳定，就是烟草公司。奥驰亚集团（Altria Group Inc.，股票代码：MO）股息率约8.4%，股息增长记录 连续54年。在2023年，奥驰亚的净营收为244.8亿美元，支付的股息总额为68亿美元。如果大家想安全的和公司一起成长，这一类现金流稳定的半垄断公司，非常值得在2025年考虑。
免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管
（Source：Tradingview）这种显著的股价上涨不仅反映了市场对Nvidia的极高期望，也凸显了其在人工智能计算领域芯片的强劲需求。根据彭博社的数据，Nvidia在第三季度的收入增长达到了惊人的206%，预计第四季度将实现232%的增长。这一成绩背后，是Nvidia不断创新和持续领先于市场的技术实力。“Nvidia正处于一个快速增长的大市场中，并在其中占据着主导地位。” Silvant Capital Management的首席投资官迈克尔·桑索特拉这样评价Nvidia的市场表现，并预测2024年将是该公司又一个收益丰厚的年份。在最近与摩根大通分析师的一次采访中，Nvidia的首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯重申了公司首席执行官黄仁勋的观点：在人工智能相关产品需求持续强劲的推动下，Nvidia在2025年的日历年度里有望继续实现增长。这一讲话进一步增强了投资者对Nvidia未来发展的信心。然而，2023年对Nvidia来说并非一帆风顺。拜登政府加强了对中国的芯片出口限制，这对英伟达造成了冲击，因为中国市场占到了其上一财年销售额的21%。面对这一挑战，Nvidia灵活应对，推出了性能较弱的图形芯片版本，旨在维持其在全球市场的竞争力，并承诺将在今年推出适用于数据中心的类似产品。
*加密货币恐惧贪婪指数最后，根据美银回购专家Cabana表示，自去年5月底量化紧缩启动至1月初，美联储的资产负债表缩减了4060亿美元，TGA减少了4220亿美元，缩表的效果被TGA泄洪对冲。TGA（treasury General Account）账户为美国财政部的主要支付账户。截止今年1月末，TGA账户中余额约5700亿美元，而预计至今年8月底，美联储缩表金额约在5000亿美元。TGA的现金似乎仍然足够冲抵美联储的缩表，可以理解为美国财政部将继续为市场注入流动性，是不是也是利多加密货币呢？技术分析：目前比特币价格为23325，似乎前期已经在15000左右位置完成筑底。虽然近期录得40%涨幅，但是整体仍处于25000-18400的盘整区间。区间上沿的25000左右也是年均线的压力位。弱势反弹抑或反转都将是一项长期工程，贵在高风险回报率，却无法避免低成功率规律。假如突破25000，上方阻力为33000左右。反之，下方支撑位在20400-20000区间以及18400附近。
Bitcoin rebounded 7% to touch $94,000 this week as two of the world's largest asset managers doubled down on their conviction that this cycle could break from crypto's boom-bust past.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and COO Rob Goldstein declared tokenisation "the next major evolution in market infrastructure,” comparing its potential to the introduction of electronic messaging systems in the 1970s.
Tokenised real-world assets have exploded from $7 billion to $24 billion in just one year, with certain projections expecting tokenised instruments to comprise 10-24% of portfolios by 2030.
Total RWA Value
Grayscale's latest research also put forward the case that this cycle will not follow Bitcoin’s predictable four-year pattern. Their analysis shows this cycle has had no parabolic price surge like previous cycles, and capital is flowing through regulated ETPs and corporate treasuries rather than retail speculation.
Grayscale has boldly predicted Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs next year based on this data, with near-term catalysts including a likely Federal Reserve rate cut and advancing crypto legislation.
AI Boom Creating a Memory Chip Supply Crisis
The AI revolution has had an unexpected ripple effect on conventional memory chips (DRAM).
Post-ChatGPT launch in 2022, chipmakers pivoted aggressively toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips — the components that power AI data centres.
Samsung and SK Hynix, who control roughly 70% of the global DRAM market, transitioned large portions of their production away from conventional chips.
This worked in the short term, but data centre operators are now replacing old servers, and PC and smartphone sales have exceeded expectations (all of which require DRAM).
This saw DRAM supplier inventories fall to just two to four weeks in October, down from 13 to 17 weeks in late 2024.
DRAM spot prices nearly tripled in September this year, while in Tokyo's electronics district, popular gaming memory modules have surged from 17,000 yen to over 47,000 yen in recent weeks.
Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta have all approached Micron with open-ended orders, agreeing to purchase whatever the company can deliver, regardless of price.
Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix shares have rallied 96%, 168%, and 213% YTD, respectively, thanks to the increased DRAM demand.
Ironically, this recent price surge has seen DRAM chip margins approach those of the advanced HBM chips, meaning non-AI memory could now become equally profitable to produce.
Every trader has had that moment where a seemingly perfect trade goes astray.
You see a clean chart on the screen, showing a textbook candle pattern; it seems as though the market planets have aligned, and so you enthusiastically jump into your trade.
But before you even have time to indulge in a little self-praise at a job well done, the market does the opposite of what you expected, and your stop loss is triggered.
This common scenario, which we have all unfortunately experienced, raises the question: What separates these “almost” trades from the truly higher-probability setups?
The State of Alignment
A high-probability setup isn’t necessarily a single signal or chart pattern. It is the coming together of several factors in a way that can potentially increase the likelihood of a successful trade.
When combined, six interconnected layers can come together to form the full “anatomy” of a higher-probability trading setup:
Context
Structure
Confluence
Timing
Management
Psychology
When more of these factors are in place, the greater the (potential) probability your trade will behave as expected.
Market Context
When we explore market context, we are looking at the underlying background conditions that may help some trading ideas thrive, and contribute to others failing.
Regime Awareness
Every trading strategy you choose to create has a natural set of market circumstances that could be an optimum trading environment for that particular trading approach.
For example:
Trending regimes may favour momentum or breakout setups.
Ranging regimes may suit mean-reversion or bounce systems.
High-volatility regimes create opportunity but demand wider stops and quicker management.
Investing time considering the underlying market regime may help avoid the temptation to force a trending system into a sideways market.
Simply looking at the slope of a 50-period moving average or the width of a Bollinger Band can suggest what type of market is currently in play.
Sentiment Alignment
If risk sentiment shifts towards a specific (or a group) of related assets, the technical picture is more likely to change to match that.
For example, if the USD index is broadly strengthening as an underlying move, then looking for long trades in EURUSD setups may end up fighting headwinds.
Setting yourself some simple rules can help, as trading against a potential tidal wave of opposite price change in a related asset is not usually a strong foundation on which to base a trading decision.
Key Reference Zones
Context also means the location of the current price relative to levels or previous landmarks.
Some examples include:
Weekly highs/lows
Prior session ranges, e.g. the Asian high and low as we move into the European session
Major “round” psychological numbers (e.g., 1.10, 1000)
A long trading setup into these areas of market importance may result in an overhead resistance, or a short trade into a potential area of support may reduce the probability of a continuation of that price move before the trade even starts.
Market Structure
Structure is the visual rhythm of price that you may see on the chart. It involves the sequences of trader impulses and corrections that end up defining the overall direction and the likelihood of continuation:
Uptrend: Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL)
Downtrend: Lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL)
Transition: Break in structure often followed by a retest of previous levels.
A pullback in an uptrend followed by renewed buying pressure over a previous price swing high point may well constitute a higher-probability buy than a random candle pattern in the middle of nowhere.
Compression and Expansion
Markets move through cycles of energy build-up and release. It is a reflection of the repositioning of asset holdings, subtle institutional accumulation, or a response to new information, and may all result in different, albeit temporary, broad price scenarios.
Compression: Evidenced by a tightening range, declining ATR, smaller candles, and so suggesting a period of indecision or exhaustion of a previous price move,
Expansion: Evidenced by a sudden breakout, larger candle bodies, and a volume spike, is suggestive of a move that is now underway.
A breakout that clears a liquidity zone often runs further, as ‘trapped’ traders may further fuel the move as they scramble to reposition.
A setup aligned with such liquidity flows may carry a higher probability than one trading directly into it.
Confluence
Confluence is the art of layering independent evidence to create a whole story. Think of it as a type of “market forensics” — each piece of confirmation evidence may offer a “better hand’ or further positive alignment for your idea.
There are three noteworthy types of confluence:
Technical Confluence – Multiple technical tools agree with your trading idea:
Moving average alignment (e.g., 20 EMA above 50 EMA) for a long trade
A Fibonacci retracement level is lining up with a previously identified support level.
Momentum is increasing on indicators such as the MACD.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence – Where a lower timeframe setup is consistent with a higher timeframe trend. If you have alignment of breakout evidence across multiple timeframes, any move will often be strengthened by different traders trading on different timeframes, all jumping into new trades together.
3. Volume Confluence – Any directional move, if supported by increasing volume, suggests higher levels of market participation. Whereas falling volume may be indicative of a lesser market enthusiasm for a particular price move.
Confluence is not about clutter on your chart. Adding indicators, e.g., three oscillators showing the same thing, may make your chart look like a work of art, but it offers little to your trading decision-making and may dilute action clarity.
Think of it this way: Confluence comes from having different dimensions of evidence and seeing them align. Price, time, momentum, and participation (which is evidenced by volume) can all contribute.
Timing & Execution
An alignment in context and structure can still fail to produce a desired outcome if your timing is not as it should be. Execution is where higher probability traders may separate themselves from hopeful ones.
Entry Timing
Confirmation: Wait for the candle to close beyond the structure or level. Avoid the temptation to try to jump in early on a premature breakout wick before the candle is mature.
Retests: If the price has retested and respected a breakout level, it may filter out some false breaks that we will often see.
Then act: Be patient for the setup to complete. Talking yourself out of a trade for the sake of just one more candle” confirmation may, over time, erode potential as you are repeatedly late into trades.
Session & Liquidity Windows
Markets breathe differently throughout the day as one session rolls into another. Each session's characteristics may suit different strategies.
For example:
London Open: Often has a volatility surge; Range breaks may work well.
New York Overlap: Often, we will see some continuation or reversal of morning trends.
Asian Session: A quieter session where mean-reversion or range trading approaches may do well
Trade Management
Managing the position well after entry can turn probability into realised profit, or if mismanaged, can result in losses compounding or giving back unrealised profit to the market.
Pre-defined Invalidation
Asking yourself before entry: “What would the market have to do to prove me wrong?” could be an approach worth trying.
This facilitates stops to be placed logically rather than emotionally. If a trade idea moves against your original thinking, based on a change to a state of unalignment, then considering exit would seem logical.
Scaling & Partial Exits
High-probability trade entries will still benefit from dynamic exit approaches that may involve partial position closes and adaptive trailing of your initial stop.
Trader Psychology
One of the most important and overlooked components of a higher-probability setup is you.
It is you who makes the choices to adopt these practices, and you who must battle the common trading “demons” of fear, impatience, and distorted expectation.
Let's be real, higher-probability trades are less common than many may lead you to believe.
Many traders destroy their potential to develop any trading edge by taking frequent low-probability setups out of a desire to be “in the market.”
It can take strength to be inactive for periods of time and exercise that patience for every box to be ticked in your plan before acting.
Measure “You” performance
Each trade you take becomes data and can provide invaluable feedback. You can only make a judgment of a planned strategy if you have followed it to the letter.
Discipline in execution can be your greatest ally or enemy in determining whether you ultimately achieve positive trading outcomes.
Bringing It All Together – The Setup Blueprint
Final Thoughts
Higher-probability setups are not found but are constructed methodically.
A trader who understands the “higher-probability anatomy” is less likely to chase trades or feel the need to always be in the market. They will see merit in ticking all the right boxes and then taking decisive action when it is time to do so.
It is now up to you to review what you have in place now, identify gaps that may exist, and commit to taking action!
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