市场资讯及洞察

JPY was the currency everyone was watching coming into the pivotal BoJ meeting on Tuesday. The BoJ, as widely telegraphed, ended 17 years of negative interest rates, ETF purchases and their yield curve control policy. While a big move from the central bank there was no real surprise, with USDJPY surging to touch on 151, well into the “intervention zone” above 150.

The US Dollar Index was bid on JPY weakness, seeing DXY briefly rise above 104.00 to a peak of 104.06 in the UK session before paring some gains head of today’s closely watched FOMC meeting. AUDUSD dropped to 1 week lows after the RBA rate decision which left rates on hold as expected, but pulled back slightly on the tightening bias namely a language change from “further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out “ to “not ruling anything in or out on interest rates”. NZD saw weakness in sympathy of the Aussie although AUDNZD saw marginal gains but failed to breach 1.08 with a high of 1.0793.

USD saw marginal weakness on Wednesday in a quiet news day. The US Dollar Index (DXY) pushing to lows after a strong 30yr Treasury saw yields drop and DXY briefly breaking beneath Tuesdays low of 102.72. A turn around later in the session saw DXY retake the 50% Fib support level at 102.80 ahead of today’s Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and PPI data.

EUR saw decent gains vs the Dollar, with EURUSD setting a weekly high of 1.0948. ECB member Villeroy spoke, saying the ECB is winning the inflation battle, but cuts are more likely appropriate in June rather than April. EURUSD holding the key 1.09 support so far this week, with 1.10 the next major resistance level to the upside.

USDJPY was ultimately flat in a whipsawing session that saw USDJPY testing 148.00 to the upside. Before pairing gains as the Yen strengthened on a report from Reuters suggesting that early signs suggest a strong outcome in the annual wage talks that have heightened the chances that the BoJ will end NIRP next week. Gold popped on Wednesday, bouncing off the 2151 support level and recouping most of Tuesday’s losses to head into the APAC session at 2175 USD an ounce, with the next upside resistance the all-time high at 2195.

As April draws to a close, the global economy stands at a pivotal juncture, grappling with the resurgence of inflationary pressures that refuse to retreat. In fact, it feels as though the inflation genie has re-emerged, asking, "Oh, you want more?" This resurgence prompts a crucial question: have we truly witnessed the peak of inflation, and consequently, the peak in interest rates, or are we merely witnessing a temporary lull before central banks are compelled to escalate interest rates further? The market has become entangled in this debate over the past few weeks, and it's far from reaching a resolution.

At the heart of the matter lies 'sticky' inflation. Economies such as Australia, the United States, and New Zealand are grappling with persistent price increases in essential fixed goods and services, including insurance, rent, housing costs, and utilities. The resilience of inflation in these sectors underscores the enduring impact of global economic forces on household budgets.

Remarkably, despite facing a post-COVID landscape fraught with challenges, households in these nations have displayed remarkable resilience. They have weathered the storm of rising interest rates while managing to maintain or marginally adjust their spending habits. Such resilience would typically be viewed as a positive narrative in a conventional economic cycle, signaling prudent financial management and adaptability.

However, the current economic landscape is anything but conventional. Against the backdrop of a global interest rate cycle reaching decade-high levels, the resilience of households and the absence of significant spending contractions raise concerns. Will tentative central banks be forced to raise rates again, rather than enact the forecasted rate cuts that were almost certain just eight weeks ago?

The chart depicting the change in the 30-day interbank cash rate implied yield curve from the start of March to the end of April vividly illustrates this shift. The difference is staggering. The resurgence of inflationary pressures threatens to upend optimistic projections.

It challenges the notion that the peak of the current economic cycle has already been reached. Instead, it suggests that the trajectory of interest rates may continue to trend upward, defying earlier forecasts and unsettling financial markets. From and FX perspective this is creating and interesting situation in the policy divergences of other central banks.

The US is facing a similar issue to that of the RBA - market pricing for the Federal Funds rate has gone from a fully pricing in 3 rate cuts with the real possibility of a 4 th in 2024 too just 1 rate cut in 2024 and only 2 cuts in 2025. Both are facing much higher rate situations in 2024. Compare that to the likes of European Central Bank (ECB), Swiss National Bank (SNB), Bank of Canada (BoC), and the Riksbank.

All are signalling potential rate cuts in upcoming meetings. In the case of the ECB it looks like being as early as June. This policy divergence creates significant implications for FX markets.

Bullish bets in the AUD have been coming thick and fast as interest rate differentials has seen crosses moving firmly in the AUD’s favour. EURAUD, AUDCAD, AUDJPY and the likes In the case of the AUDUSD this pair is hard to read as both have similar dynamics. The rule of thumb in a scenario like this is ‘all roads lead to the USD’ and explains why the AUD is lagging in this pair but not elsewhere.

On the USD – the clearest example of the pressure it is putting on the rest of its peers is USDJPY. For the first time since 1990 USDJPY passed Y160. It would appear this is a market test for the Bank of Japan.

Does it defend its falling currency? Does it lose its authority due to it losing control of its control mechanism? The economic fundamentals make this a very interesting question indeed.

With an ECB June cut looking likely, FX traders will start looking at the policy path beyond June. Most analysists are calling that the European Central Bank will not cut rates at consecutive meetings and deliver only 75bp of total easing in 2024 based on current data and recent comments from ECB members, the latest being Governing Council member Madis Muller who seemed to stress exactly that point this week. EURUSD has been trading lately It appears that the divergence narrative - triggered by US data and the ECB in-meeting communication – has started to fade slightly, With EURUSD bouncing nicely off support at 1.06 over the last week.

Improvements in the eurozone economic outlook probably playing a role in making the hawks reluctant to give in to a dovish policy path. A June cut is still the base case, but the accompanying message may fail to push rates much lower. That potentially limits how far EURUSD can fall on higher USD rates.

Today, the ECB publishes the CPI expectation surveys for March. In February, the 1-year gauge came in at 3.1% and the 3-year at 2.4%. Expectations are probably for a nudge lower in both surveys.

Still, the dollar story should drive most EURUSD moves today: we see risks skewed to a higher dollar and do not see the pair being able to trade sustainably at 1.0700+.

Q1 earnings season is nearly finished but there are still a few companies expected to release their latest results for the previous quarter. On Wednesday, Cintas Corporation (NASDAQ: CTAS) announced their latest financial results. American company that specializes in the manufacturing and sale of workwear and uniforms achieved revenue of $2.406 billion in fiscal 2024 third quarter, which was above analyst estimate of $2.39 billion.

Earnings per share (EPS) also topped estimates at $3.84 vs. $3.576 per share expected. Revenue and EPS were up by 9.9% and 22.3% year-over-year respectively. Company overview Founded: 1929 Headquarters: Mason, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 44,500 (2023) Industry: Service Key people: Todd Schneider (CEO), Scott D.

Farmer (Executive Chairman), Mike Thompson (Executive Vice President and CAO) CEO commentary "Our third quarter results reflect the outstanding dedication and execution of our employees, whom we call partners. Each of our operating segments continue to execute at a high level, which led to robust revenue growth of 9.9%, record high gross margin of 49.4%, record high operating margin of 21.6% and diluted EPS growth of 22.3%," Todd Schneider, CEO of Cintas said in a statement to shareholders. Schneider also announced that the company is raising its guidance for 2024: "Based on our third quarter results, we are increasing our full fiscal year financial guidance.

We are raising our annual revenue expectations from a range of $9.48 billion to $9.56 billion to a range of $9.57 billion to $9.60 billion and our diluted EPS from a range of $14.35 to $14.65 to a range of $14.80 to $15.00." Stock reaction The stock was up by over 9% on Wednesday, trading at above $700 level for the first time ever during the trading session. Stock performance 5 day: +8.56% 1 month: +9.29% 3 months: +13.71% Year-to-date: +14.38% 1 year: +48.20% Cintas stock price targets Barclays: $700 Truist Financial: $660 Stifel: $585 Royal Bank of Canada: $645 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $640 Deutsche Bank: $590 Citigroup: $530 Robert W. Baird: $540 Bank of America: $565 Wells Fargo & Company: $500 UBS Group: $575 Morgan Stanley: $441 Argus: $540 Jefferies Financial Group: $487 Cintas Corporation is the 261 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $69.82 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

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What a week and a half we have had - Central Banks the world over have delivered their May decisions for their respective interest rate moves (or non-moves). Thus, we need to review the FX reactions and the outlook for rates for the rest of 2024. Let’s start at home: RBA and the AUD First, as expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates on hold at 4.35%, this was expected however the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 is fading fast.

That was brought to light in the statement and Michele Bullock’s press conference. Here's a breakdown of the key points: Inflation Dynamics: The RBA notes that inflation is declining, albeit at a slower pace than expected. Services inflation is moderating gradually, driven by a labour market that the RBA now perceives as tighter than previously assessed.

This indicates that the labour market conditions are exerting influence on inflation dynamics. Monetary Policy: The RBA views its current monetary policy stance as restrictive, with the cash rate level seen as supportive of achieving the target inflation range of 2–3%. However the Board did leave the door open for all movements both hikes and cuts if inflation doesn’t return target inside a meaningful timeframe.

Other Considerations: The RBA remains attentive to developments in the global and domestic economy, the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Thus, it remains data-dependent to policy decisions. What caught our attention the most was the shift in language, particularity the downplaying of supply-side inflation and the attention on domestic demand which is still be too high leading to the same sticky inflation effect we are seeing in the US.

The FX market reaction was mixed on all this, the initial reaction was bearish as the more hawkish bets of the previous few weeks unwound. However, the AUD remains one of the best performing currencies in the G10. With the RBA signalling that its next move may still be a hike it is likely to remain in the ascendancy against those FX players that are facing confirmed cuts in the coming months.

BoE and GBP It seems like the Bank of England (BoE) is navigating through some interesting waters with its monetary policy decisions. The Board voted 7-2 vote to keep rates at 5.25%, but it was Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks post the decisions that caught the market’s attention hinting at a potential shift towards a sharper and faster accommodative stance. The fact that money markets are fully pricing in a rate cut by August, with a considerable probability assigned to a cut in June (44%), indicates a significant anticipation of policy easing.

But Bailey’s suggestion suggests it could be sooner and stronger than priced. No doubt the BoE's decision-making will indeed be influenced by upcoming data on wage settlements and inflation. But it’s clear the impact on the GBP is one way and that is down, particularly when it’s against the likes of the USD or AUD.

It’s a slight more mixed position against the EUR, SEK and CAD as their respective banks are also pointing to rate cuts. ECB and the EUR The EUR is facing a mixed bag having eased through the year but is facing a complex interplay between economic data, market sentiment, and central bank expectations. For example despite some mixed German economic indicators, EUR managed to strengthen last week supported by positive developments in German exports and stronger Eurozone retail sales.

The real headwind for the EUR is the speculation of when (not if) European Central Bank (ECB) will rate cuts. Speculation is rising that next month’s meeting will be the start point after the minutes from the last meeting reinforced dovish bets. Something to watch, the upcoming release of May’s ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany could provide further insight into the economic outlook.

If the sentiment continues to improve, particularly in the Eurozone's largest economy, it could lend support to the EUR amid ongoing uncertainties surrounding ECB policy decisions. Watch the likes of EURGBP and EURSEK in particular. Riksbank and SEK And finally, a mover.

For the first time in 8 years the Riksbank lowered its key interest rate to 3.75% after a two-year period of rate hikes. Governor Erik Thedeen's indication that two more rate cuts are likely in the second half of the year, contingent upon inflation remaining subdued, reflects the proactive stance aimed at supporting economic stability from the Bank. However, Thedeen's emphasized caution as the economic landscape and potential risks associated with policy changes could change the Bank’s outlook.

This could explain the reaction of the SEK to the rate cut a short-lived weakening then a recovery. This highlights the interplay between monetary policy as bigger players such as the BoE and ECB could overrun the dovishness in the smaller SEK for the bigger EUR and GBP.