市场资讯及洞察
Artificial intelligence stocks have begun to waver slightly, experiencing a selloff period in the first week of this month. The Nasdaq has fallen approximately 2%, wiping out around $500 billion in market value from top technology companies.
Palantir Technologies dropped nearly 8% despite beating Wall Street estimates and issuing strong guidance, highlighting growing investor concerns about stretched valuations in the AI sector.
Nvidia shares also fell roughly 4%, while the broader selloff extended to Asian markets, which experienced some of their sharpest declines since April.
Wall Street executives, including Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warned of potential 10-20% drawdowns in equity markets over the coming year.
And Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, recently revealed his $1.1 billion bet against both Nvidia and Palantir, further pushing the narrative that the AI rally may be overextended.
As we near 2026, the sentiment around AI is seemingly starting to shift, with investors beginning to seek evidence of tangible returns on the massive investments flowing into AI, rather than simply betting on future potential.
However, despite the recent turbulence, many are simply characterising this pullback as "healthy" profit-taking rather than a fundamental reassessment of AI's value.
Supreme Court Raises Doubts About Trump’s Tariffs
The US Supreme Court heard arguments overnight on the legality of President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, with judges from both sides of the political spectrum expressing scepticism about the presidential authority being claimed.
Trump has relied on a 1970s-era emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose sweeping tariffs on goods imported into the US.
At the centre of the case are two core questions: whether the IEEPA authorises these sweeping tariffs, and if so, whether Trump’s implementation is constitutional.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett indicated they may be inclined to strike down or curb the majority of the tariffs, while Justice Brett Kavanaugh questioned why no president before Trump had used this authority.
Prediction markets saw the probability of the court upholding the tariffs drop from 40% to 25% after the hearing.
The US government has collected $151 billion from customs duties in the second half of 2025 alone, a nearly 300% increase over the same period in 2024.
Should the court rule against the tariffs, potential refunds could reach approximately $100 billion.
The court has not indicated a date on which it will issue its final ruling, though the Trump administration has requested an expedited decision.
Shutdown Becomes Longest in US History
The US government shutdown entered its 36th day today, officially becoming the longest in history. It surpasses the previous 35-day record set during Trump's first term from December 2018 to January 2019.
The Senate has failed 14 times to advance spending legislation, falling short of the 60-vote supermajority by five votes in the most recent vote.
So far, approximately 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed, and 730,000 are currently working without pay. Over 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and 750,000 National Guard and reserve personnel are also working unpaid.
SNAP food stamp benefits ran out of funding on November 1 — something 42 million Americans rely on weekly. However, the Trump administration has committed to partial payments to subsidise the benefits, though delivery could take several weeks.
Flight disruptions have affected 3.2 million passengers, with staffing shortages hitting more than half of the nation's 30 major airports. Nearly 80% of New York's air traffic controllers are absent.
From a market perspective, each week of shutdown reduces GDP by approximately 0.1%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the total cost of the shutdown will be between $7 billion and $14 billion, with the higher figure assuming an eight-week duration.
Consumer spending could drop by $30 billion if the eight-week duration is reached, according to White House economists, with potential GDP impacts of up to 2 percentage points total.
US home improvement chain Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) reported Q4 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The company reported revenue of $34.786 billion for the quarter (down by 2.9% year-over-year) vs. $34.643 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $2.82 (down by 14.54% year-over-year) vs. $2.768 per share expected.
Full-year 2023 revenue reached $152.7 billion, down by 3% vs. 2022. EPS was down by 9.5% year-over-year at $15.11 per share. Company overview Founded: February 6, 1978 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 471,600 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Ted Decker (President & CEO), Craig Menear (Chairman) CEO commentary "After three years of exceptional growth for our business, 2023 was a year of moderation," Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot said in a letter to investors. "During fiscal 2023, we focused on several initiatives to strengthen the business while also staying true to our strategic investments of creating the best interconnected experience, growing our pro wallet share through our unique ecosystem of capabilities, and building new stores.
We remain excited about the future for home improvement and our ability to grow share in our large and fragmented market, which we estimate to be over $950 billion. I also want to thank our associates for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities," Decker concluded. Stock reaction The stock was flat at the end of the trading session on Tuesday at $363.50 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.34% 1 month: +1.08% 3 months: +16.99% Year-to-date: +4.04% 1 year: +13.40% Home Depot stock price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $366 Telsey Advisory Group: $335 Robert W. Baird: $370 The Goldman Sachs Group: $393 Wells Fargo & Company: $400 TD Cowen: $415 Piper Sandler: $400 Wedbush: $380 Barclays: $372 Truist Financial: $387 Morgan Stanley: $335 Guggenheim: $340 Royal Bank of Canada: $299 HSBC: $365 Home Depot Inc. is the 25 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $358.38 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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With the US closed for a holiday FX markets on Monday struggled to find much direction though China re-opening in the green after an extended leave did lend some support to the Aussie dollar ahead of todays RBA minutes. The February 6th RBA meeting saw a statement that had a bit of both ways, acknowledging broad progress on the inflation front but also pointing to the concerning level of inflation despite recent progress. This was seen as a hawkish leaning hold, seeing AUDUSD rally modestly on the day, today’s minutes will fill in the gaps as to the discussion between RBA members leading to the official decision.
AUDUSD Technical analysis AUDUSD has bounced in the last week after setting new 2024 lows at 0.6442 on the 13 th of February. The steady advance retaking the 0.65 handle and breaching the February resistance level of 0.6525, which has so far held as support. AUDUSD has hit some technical resistance levels here, firstly the 100 Day SMA, which has so far capped further price increase, and further to the upside is the 200 Day SMA and 50% Fib level at around 0.6580 which could also provide technical resistance to any further Aussie upside.
Technical support to the downside could be found firstly at the 61.8 fib level at 0.6513, failing that the 2024 lows at 0.6450. For Aussie traders, along with the RBA minutes today, the main data point will be Wednesdays Wage Price Index, a gauge the RBA has referenced in regards to their rate decisions and could be a big Aussie mover if outside of expected range.
USD Dollar saw mild strength in Monday’s session, DXY trading either side of the psychological 104.00 level but again being capped to the upside by the 100-day SMA resistance. The was little in the way of a catalyst with no tier one data released, that will change today with US CPI figures released, which will help market participants and the Fed gauge the timing of the first rate cut. USDJPY was mostly flat for the second straight session, volume was low with Japan away for a holiday.
USDJPY hit a low of 148.94 but failed to stay beneath 149.00 for long as a rise in US yields dragged the pair higher and held it above the key 149 level. AUDUSD rallied through the 0.6525 resistance level, this will be a key level to watch for Aussie traders today to see if it can re-establish itself as support. NZD lagged despite hawkish RBNZ commentary where RBNZ Governor Orr said inflation is still too high, NZDUSD finding resistance at the February highs and dropping to a low of 0.6120.
This also saw AUDNZD have its biggest up day of 2024 hitting a high of 1.0650 and retracing all and then some of Fridays steep drop. Attention turns to the New Zealand inflation expectations and RBA's Kohler both on Tuesday.
USD dipped in Wednesday’s session after the CPI inspired surge on Tuesday. The US dollar index (DXY) hitting resistance at the 105 level and dropping to a low of 104.65. Reports of Fed Chair Powell downplaying Tuesday's hotter than expected CPI along with the Fed's Goolsbee stating US inflation is still consistent with the Fed's path back to target weighing somewhat on yields and the USD.
EURUSD rallied modestly, holding the key 1.07 level where it found support on Tuesday. A soft USD and beats in Q4 employment and industrial production data support the pair. Euro watchers have ECB president Lagarde testifying at the EU parliament later in the session to look forward to.
JPY saw small gains against the USD with lower UST yields across the curve benefitting the Japanese currency. Though with USDJPY still well above the “intervention” level of 150 some jawboning from Japanese officials materialised. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki saying he is closely watching FX market moves with a strong sense of urgency and currency diplomat Kanda noting he is watching FX moves and will take appropriate actions if needed on FX.
GBP was the G10 underperformer with GBPUSD setting one week lows after cooler than expected UK CPI data. The headline Y/Y maintaining a 4.0% pace, beneath the 4.2% forecast. UK GDP is ahead for Sterling traders where a contraction of -0.2% is expected.
US machine manufacturer Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) announced the latest financial results before the opening bell on Thursday. Deere achieved revenue of $10.486 billion for the three months ending 28/1/24, beating analyst estimate of $10.303 billion. Revenue was down by 8% vs. the same period year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $6.23 vs. $5.264 per share estimate. EPS decreased year-over-year by 4.88%. Net income for the quarter reached $1.75 billion.
The company cut net income forecast for fiscal year 2024 from $7.75-$8.25 billion to $7.50-$7.75 billion. Company overview Founded: 1837 Headquarters: Moline, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 82,200 (2022) Industry: Agricultural machinery, heavy equipment Key people: John C. May (Chairman, CEO & President) CEO commentary "Deere's first-quarter performance underscores the effectiveness of our Smart Industrial operating model and the dedication of our workforce, enabling improved performance across economic cycles that surpasses historical benchmarks," John C.
May, CEO of the company commented on the latest results. "Moreover, we remain committed to empowering our customers to improve their productivity and sustainability through ongoing investment in the next generation of solutions, as evidenced by our partnership on satellite communications to expand rural connectivity announced this quarter," May concluded his statement to stockholders. Stock reaction The stock fell by over 5% on Thursday. Shares were trading at around $363.36 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/23.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.49% 1 month: -4.39% 3 months: -3.68% Year-to-date: -8.81% 1 year: -9.51% Deere & Company stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $430 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $385 Canaccord Genuity Group: $375 TD Cowen: $396 Bank of America: $422.50 HSBC: $486 USB Group: $408 Credit Suisse Group: $551 Stifel Nicolaus: $460 Oppenheimer: $458 Deutsche Bank: $407 DA Davidson: $510 Citigroup: $475 BMO Capital Markets: $425 Wells Fargo & Company: $490 Deere & Company is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $101.73 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) released the latest earnings results for fiscal Q2 of 2024 after market close in the US on Wednesday. The US telecommunications company achieved revenue of $12.8 billion for the quarter vs. $12.706 billion. Revenue was down by 6% vs. the same period the year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.87, above Wall Street estimate of $0.836 per share. EPS was down by 1% year-over-year. Cisco announced a 3% raise on its quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share for all shareholders on record as of 4/4/24.
For fiscal Q3 of 2024, the company expects revenue in a region of $12.1 to $12.3 billion. EPS expected at between $0.84 to $0.86 per share. Company overview Founded: 1984 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 84,900 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications Key people: Chuck Robbins (CEO & Chairman) CEO commentary "We delivered a solid second quarter with strong operating leverage and capital returns," Chuck Robbins, CEO of the company said in a press release. "We continue to align our investments to future growth opportunities.
Our innovation sits at the center of an increasingly connected ecosystem and will play a critical role as our customers adopt AI and secure their organizations," Robbins concluded. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.29% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $50.28 a share. The stock fell by around 4% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 5 day: +0.32% 1 month: -0.74% 3 months: -6.29% Year-to-date: -1.17% 1 year: +3.05% Cisco stock price targets UBS Group: $55 Melius Research: $55 DZ Bank: $50 Rosenblatt Securities: $51 Piper Sandler: $50 Oppenheimer: $54 Tigress Financial: $76 Bank of America: $60 Deutsche Bank: $58 Barclays: $53 Citigroup: $55 Morgan Stanley: $56 Jefferies Financial Group: $59.50 Evercore ISI: $63 BNP Paribas: $45 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Cisco Systems Inc. is the 54 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $203 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''.
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Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Cisco Systems Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap