市场资讯及洞察
Artificial intelligence stocks have begun to waver slightly, experiencing a selloff period in the first week of this month. The Nasdaq has fallen approximately 2%, wiping out around $500 billion in market value from top technology companies.
Palantir Technologies dropped nearly 8% despite beating Wall Street estimates and issuing strong guidance, highlighting growing investor concerns about stretched valuations in the AI sector.
Nvidia shares also fell roughly 4%, while the broader selloff extended to Asian markets, which experienced some of their sharpest declines since April.
Wall Street executives, including Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warned of potential 10-20% drawdowns in equity markets over the coming year.
And Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, recently revealed his $1.1 billion bet against both Nvidia and Palantir, further pushing the narrative that the AI rally may be overextended.
As we near 2026, the sentiment around AI is seemingly starting to shift, with investors beginning to seek evidence of tangible returns on the massive investments flowing into AI, rather than simply betting on future potential.
However, despite the recent turbulence, many are simply characterising this pullback as "healthy" profit-taking rather than a fundamental reassessment of AI's value.
Supreme Court Raises Doubts About Trump’s Tariffs
The US Supreme Court heard arguments overnight on the legality of President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, with judges from both sides of the political spectrum expressing scepticism about the presidential authority being claimed.
Trump has relied on a 1970s-era emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose sweeping tariffs on goods imported into the US.
At the centre of the case are two core questions: whether the IEEPA authorises these sweeping tariffs, and if so, whether Trump’s implementation is constitutional.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett indicated they may be inclined to strike down or curb the majority of the tariffs, while Justice Brett Kavanaugh questioned why no president before Trump had used this authority.
Prediction markets saw the probability of the court upholding the tariffs drop from 40% to 25% after the hearing.
The US government has collected $151 billion from customs duties in the second half of 2025 alone, a nearly 300% increase over the same period in 2024.
Should the court rule against the tariffs, potential refunds could reach approximately $100 billion.
The court has not indicated a date on which it will issue its final ruling, though the Trump administration has requested an expedited decision.
Shutdown Becomes Longest in US History
The US government shutdown entered its 36th day today, officially becoming the longest in history. It surpasses the previous 35-day record set during Trump's first term from December 2018 to January 2019.
The Senate has failed 14 times to advance spending legislation, falling short of the 60-vote supermajority by five votes in the most recent vote.
So far, approximately 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed, and 730,000 are currently working without pay. Over 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and 750,000 National Guard and reserve personnel are also working unpaid.
SNAP food stamp benefits ran out of funding on November 1 — something 42 million Americans rely on weekly. However, the Trump administration has committed to partial payments to subsidise the benefits, though delivery could take several weeks.
Flight disruptions have affected 3.2 million passengers, with staffing shortages hitting more than half of the nation's 30 major airports. Nearly 80% of New York's air traffic controllers are absent.
From a market perspective, each week of shutdown reduces GDP by approximately 0.1%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the total cost of the shutdown will be between $7 billion and $14 billion, with the higher figure assuming an eight-week duration.
Consumer spending could drop by $30 billion if the eight-week duration is reached, according to White House economists, with potential GDP impacts of up to 2 percentage points total.
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美国道琼斯字数昨晚收涨235点，涨幅0.6%，标普500指数上涨1.1%，纳斯达克指数上涨1.5%。美股近期最火热的产品：英伟达(NVDA)收涨7.1%，台积电(TSM)涨3.8%，甲骨文(ORCL)涨超11%。继续贯彻一天2位数的速度给投资者回报。这种行情下，要什么基金经理，年化8%？一天就可以随随便便实现，只要你在这个市场里。
昨晚美国公布的月CPI数据同比上涨3.2%，超过市场预测的3.1%，环比增速则录得0.4%。与市场预期相符。和我之前的预测比较接近，那就是通胀不可能那么快速被消灭掉，今年的降息大概就是2次0.25%的幅度。对央行大幅度降息抱有幻想是不切实际的。这种高息环境下，苦的是现金流不好的企业或项目，舒服的是现金流好的企业或项目。所以今年的短期投资，依旧以现金流增长（业绩增长）为主。对于负现金流的投资标的要小心。目前融资成本高达10%+，所以负债和现金流差，会造成极大压力，跟大家买房是一个道理。但是企业现金流充沛的，可以买理财，国债，定存等等，享受8%以上的固定收益，舒舒服服的赚钱。所以，通胀只要不大幅度上升，我们就不需要紧张。目前市场是对行业的重新洗牌。科技企业一改过去投资大回报小的特点，随着英伟达，甲骨文等公司公布财报，我们发现科技公司赚钱简直就是捡钱。30000人的公司，可以贡献出千亿的产值，单个人的生产价值几千万。这让市场重新看到了机会，并且在高息环境下，现金流大的科技股被低估了，而不是被高估。
昨晚，美股甲骨文在纽约交易所上涨12%，收于127.54美元，创历史新高。截至2月份，云收入增长了25%，达到51亿美元，略高于华尔街预期的50.6亿美元。其中，18亿美元来自通过互联网出租计算能力和存储，33亿美元来自应用程序。第三财季总销售额增长7.1%，达到133亿美元。甲骨文将自己定位为低成本云提供商，并在 Nvidia 芯片上花费了数十亿美元，以期与行业巨头亚马逊和微软竞争。所以从逻辑源头来看，英伟达是科技竞赛的底层受益者。ORCL股票从2021年1月上旬的65美元水平上涨至目前的110美元左右，涨幅高达70%，甲骨文预计2024财年的GAAP年度每股收益为4.02美元。
这就是美股的魅力，一家估值3500亿美金的公司，大概的销售额是800亿美元，远超之前预测的590亿美元，而在未来公司还会加大AI相关的计算领域投入，与英伟达合作。在产品的具体交易上，大家可以选择做波段，利用顾比均线的方法，享受这一次科技股带来的财富增长。
我们看到英伟达股价从430美金出现顾比均线的买入信号之后，股价就没有出现过卖出信号，第二大浪的回报也能够收入口袋中，直至今日的920美金，不到半年超过翻倍的收益。所以趋势交易中，顾比均线是有效的，能够带来超额回报。
同样，对于黄金短期交易来说，顾比均线也拥有不错的参考价值，最近的一次从2020美金出现买入信号，涨到2180最高点附近，随着美国CPI数据公布，回落至2160美金附近。所以，宏观上我们判断了方向或定期投资的策略方法，短期具体交易中，我们还是要结合不错的进场点进入，来降低我们的风险，增加我们的收入。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管
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上周我们刚分析了AI行业背后依赖的能源话题。OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼曾公开表示，人工智能领域正迎来一场能源危机。在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上，奥尔特曼警告称，下一波生成型人工智能系统的电力消耗将远超预期，能源供应系统将面临巨大挑战。英伟达创始人黄仁勋也明确表示，“AI的未来在于光伏和储能，我们不能只关注计算能力，若只关注计算机，将需要消耗14个地球的能源。”这一超级AI的电力需求成为了一座无底洞，能源转型势在必行。正当我们还在AI领域的蓬勃发展中沉醉时，上周五英伟达股价突然暴跌，波动率达到10%，单日跌幅创下了9个月以来的新高。周末随之出现了大量声音对英伟达进行唱衰，宣称其已经崩盘。然而，这一判断是否真实，还是单纯的市场炒作呢？英伟达在股价翻了七倍之后跌了5%，就可以被视作崩盘了吗？显然，这是毫无根据的。
有分析指出，英伟达股价周五的暴跌与期权交易有关。交易员开始行使英伟达的实值看涨期权，迫使期权交易商通过出售英伟达股票来解除对冲，从而导致了股价的抛售。在没有任何消息面的推动下，股价从上涨5%一路跳水，最终大跌超过5%。这种现象部分原因是大量英伟达看涨期权在周五行使，而随着人工智能热潮的兴起，越来越多的投资者通过期权市场押注英伟达股价上涨。据数据显示，交易员在2月的最后一周就在英伟达期权上投入了高达200亿美元的资金，远超其他七巨头公司。过去一个月，英伟达期权交易已占据了单票期权市场的四分之一，其中包括防止英伟达股价在3月份跌至350美元的期权，以及在未来几个月内股价迅速上涨至900美元甚至更高时产生收益的期权。此外，专注于追踪英伟达股票的杠杆型ETF基金近来也吸引了大量投资者。GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF上周三的净流入资金额达到了创纪录的1.97亿美元。GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA ETF，Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 1.5X Shares ETF和T-Rex 2X Long Nvidia Daily Target ETF三只跟踪英伟达的杠杆型ETF在2月份的净月度流入资金均创下纪录。就在英伟达周五下跌之前，GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA ETF的价格和交易量均创下了历史新高。
在周末的一些分析报告认为，英伟达周五的暴跌似乎预示着“思科时刻”的到来。然而，摩根士丹利立马出了分析报告剖析现状，从科技环境，公司实力和估值等多方面来看，英伟达并非当年的思科。当前AI基础设施投资的热潮尚未达到1999年互联网泡沫的水平，AI基础设施建设只是一个开始。每个超大规模企业都在构建基础设施，以便在其之上开发各种应用程序、工具和服务。当前正在进行的AI数据中心加速计算建设只是第一阶段，尽管这是构建所有AI应用程序的基础，但增加了一个颠覆性的技术层（如大型语言模型），能够降低成本、加快上市速度。在1994年12月至2000年3月的互联网泡沫期间，思科等公司的市值增长率曾达到59%，市盈率高达138倍，而如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。因此，无论是从估值还是从长期发展的角度来看，我们都不觉得当前的英伟达已接近市场顶峰。AI基础设施的初期投资虽然巨大，但从长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模企业在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。
再过一周，全世界关注的AI开发者大会GTC2024即将召开，届时CEO黄仁勋将发表主题为“不要错过人工智能的变革时刻”的演讲，该大会预计将全面推高AI板块股价，成为2024年AI再上一个台阶的新起点，因此现在的股价震荡或许就是一个很好的进场时机，而不是引起AI板块恐慌的时候。特别是宣传英伟达崩盘之说，那是完全站不住脚的。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师
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最近，Adobe遭遇了其Sora项目带来的严重冲击，仅一天之内，公司的市场价值就蒸发了180亿美元。这次事件凸显了人工智能（AI）在目前市场的不稳定性以及其未来的巨大增长空间。虽然AI技术在短期内可能存在过度推广的情况，但从长期角度看，人们对其真正价值的认知还远远不够。
（Source：OpenAI）Sora特别之处在于，它能够根据简单的提示，迅速创造出时长为一分钟的视频内容。尽管这项技术让人眼前一亮，但相较于人类创作的内容，AI产生的作品常常缺乏深度和吸引力。此外，AI在编辑功能方面的局限性进一步突出了当前技术面临的挑战。但是这也赋予了未来多种的可能性，因此对于Adobe这种传统的照片视频编辑产生了巨大冲击。去年秋季，Adobe Inc.发起了一项创新活动，向其广泛的专业摄影师社区中的精选成员提出特殊的拍摄要求，如以60美元的价格拍摄1000张香蕉图片，或是记录现实生活中的旗帜和拍摄食物咀嚼过程的特写。这些特定的拍摄任务并非出于对这些对象突然的需求，而是为了提供Adobe最近推出的AI创新项目——Firefly——所需的素材，该项目在上一年3月推出测试版。不同于Midjourney和Dall-E这样的AI艺术生成器，后者因能够将文本提示转换成逼真的图像而受到关注，Adobe选择了一条更加审慎的道路，主要利用其Adobe Stock图库对Firefly进行训练（该库拥有超3亿张图片）。
（Source：Adobe）通过这种方式，Adobe旨在改善Firefly处理日常场景的能力，让其产出的图像摆脱典型商业照片的感觉，显得更加自然。Adobe计划通过Firefly为设计师和企业创建品牌、包装设计等提供一个内置知识产权保护的工具。这种专注于遵循版权和法律规定的策略使Firefly与市场上的竞品不同，通过限制包含公共人物、特定词汇和品牌的图像生成，采用了一种“商业安全”的操作方式。
（Source：Adobe）Adobe将其步入AI领域看作是其长期致力于连接创意与商业需求的使命的延伸。尽管Adobe在创意软件领域处于领先地位，它也面临着保持其技术优势的挑战，尤其是当越来越多的年轻艺术家开始尝试更为简单的设计工具时。Adobe通过Firefly努力吸引其忠实用户群，通过在已经广泛使用的Adobe产品中整合AI功能，确保创新不会取代创造力。说到AI，开发像ChatGPT这样的AI项目不仅需要大量的财力支持，还需要一支充满创造力和技术才能的工程师团队。面对诸多挑战，类似Jasper这样的AI内容创作团队正努力开发可以与ChatGPT等项目抗衡的技术。在AI行业，迅速适应和工程能力被视为极其宝贵的技能。此外，采取多元化服务销售策略对减少客户流失至关重要，这对于企业的长期发展极为重要。YouTube上的Gemini AI项目展示了AI在提取和分析视频内容方面的新能力，为视频平台的优化开辟了新途径。
总而言之，尽管AI技术的发展道路充满了挑战，但同时也充满了机遇。对企业和投资者而言，理解AI技术的长期价值和潜力非常关键。对于Adobe这样的公司来说，适应AI带来的变化并充分利用其带来的机遇，是保持竞争力的关键。Adobe的审慎AI策略，特别是它对版权安全和实用价值的重视，展示了公司维护创意专业人士和商业客户核心地位的长远布局。通过创新的技术和合规的操作，Adobe旨在证明AI技术不仅可以为人类的创造性工作增加价值，而且可以在数字时代的不断变革中，确保其产品Firefly在设计和创意行业的未来发展中扮演关键角色。免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 悉尼中文部
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced the latest financial results before the US market open on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain achieved revenue of $173.388 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $170.854 billion expected. Revenue grew by 5.7% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.80 (up from $1.71 the year prior) vs. $1.643 per share expected. Full-year revenue grew by 6% from the year before $648.1 billion. EPS grew by 5.7% to $6.65 per share.
Walmart also announced that it will acquire electronics company VIZIO HOLDING CORP. in a deal worth $2.3 billion. Company overview Founded: July 2, 1962 Headquarters: Bentonville, Arkansas, United Kingdom Number of employees: 2.1 million (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Greg Penner (Chairman), Doug McMillon (President and CEO) CEO commentary Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart had this to say to investors: ''Our team delivered a great quarter, finishing off a strong year. We crossed $100 billion in eCommerce sales and drove share gains as our customer experience metrics improved, even during our highest volume days leading up to the holidays.
We’re proud of the team and excited about building on our momentum as we work to bring prices down for our customers and members.'' Stock reaction Shares rose by over 3% during Tuesday's trading session, trading at $175.75 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +3.33% 1 month: +8.36% 3 months: +13.31% Year-to-date: +11.62% 1 year: +20.16% Walmart stock price targets JPMorgan Chase & Co.: $176 Stifel Nicolaus: $175 Deutsche Bank: $190 Telsey Advisory Group: $185 Oppenheimer: $185 Morgan Stanley: $168 BMO Capital Markets: $175 Truist Financial: $170 Royal Bank of Canada: $168 Evercore ISI: $177 Jefferies Financial Group: $195 Stephens: $190 Tigress Financial: $196 Piper Sandler: $210 Walmart Inc. is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $473.78 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US manufacturer of building materials Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) announced its latest financial results on Friday. Vulcan Materials reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates. Revenue reached $1.834 billion for Q4 2023 (up by 5.88% year-over-year) vs. $1.837 billion expected.
Earnings per share (EPS) topped expectations at $1.46 vs. $1.398 per share expected. EPS was up by 35.18% year-over-year. Full year revenue was up by 6.38% from 2022 at $7.782 billion.
EPS reached $7 per share, up from $5.11 the year before. Company overview Founded: 1909 Headquarters: Birmingham, Alabama United States Number of employees: 12,000 (2023) Industry: Construction materials Key people: Tom Hill (Chief Executive Officer) Suzanne H. Wood (Chief Financial Officer) Denson N.
Franklin III (General Counsel) CEO commentary "2023 was an exceptional year for Vulcan Materials. We generated over $2 billion in Adjusted EBITDA, a 24 percent increase over the prior year, expanded EBITDA margin by 360 basis points and generated $1.5 billion of operating cash flow that can be deployed to grow our business. Our industry leading aggregates cash gross profit per ton increased each quarter on a year-over-year basis and was $9.46 per ton for the full year, a 21 percent improvement over the prior year.
Six consecutive years of unit profitability improvement during a continuously shifting macro backdrop demonstrates the durability of our uniquely positioned aggregates-led business. We carry momentum into 2024, and our focus is the same - compounding unit margins through all parts of the cycle and creating value for our shareholders through improving returns on capital," Tom Hill, CEO of Vulcan Materials said in a statement to shareholders. Stock reaction The stock was up by over 5% at the end of the trading session on Friday at $255.15 a share – a new all-time closing price.
Stock performance 5 day: +6.31% 1 month: +12.86% 3 months: +20.16% Year-to-date: +12.40% 1 year: +37.44% Vulcan Materials stock price targets Raymond James: $240 Royal Bank of Canada: $236 Morgan Stanley: $208 Stifle Nicolaus: $279 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $245 DA Davidson: $260 Barclays: $250 Citigroup: $260 Stephens: $260 Loop Capital: $260 Truist Financial: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $265 The Goldman Sachs Group: $212 Vulcan Materials Company is the 555 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $33.90 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
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The most anticipated US earnings announcement is coming up with NVDA due to report fiscal Quarter ending Jan 2024 earnings after the Wednesday US market close. NVDA has seen a meteoric rise, quintupling in 2023 and up more than 40% so far in 2024, being the number one stock riding AI mania, making this earnings report one that all investors will be paying attention to. Options markets are pricing in a +/- 11% move to this earnings report, which is exceptional considering the 1.8T size of the company, with Call/Put pricing showing a bias to the upside, which is not surprising with NVDA beating analyst estimates seven of the last eight earnings reports.
There has also been a number of upward revisions in the last four weeks which can be taken as a bullish sign. Source:Nasdaq.com Saying that, NVDA did have the biggest fall of the year on Tuesday, dropping over 4% as some longs booked profits ahead of earnings, so a beat on these figures is certainly not unanimous. This selling action selling could also be an ominous sign of the reaction after earnings if results don’t meet the lofty expectations of Wall St.
Either way traders will likely be rushing to enter or exit the stock depending on the result, so a big move in either direction is probable. NVDA is scheduled to report earnings after Wednesdays US market close.