市场资讯及洞察

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沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），通常被称为“奥马哈先知”，在投资界享有崇高地位。巴菲特的投资理念深受本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）的影响，强调深入了解业务，投资于具有长期有利前景和管理团队优秀的公司，并在重大折扣时购买。他在2024年第一季度的最新13F文件显示了一些有趣的投资组合变化，包括大幅减少了苹果公司（Apple Inc）的股份。来看看主要持仓增加在2024年第一季度，巴菲特增加了四只股票的持仓，特别是：Chubb Ltd（纽约证券交易所代码：CB）增加了5,823,840股，总持股量达到25,923,840股。这一调整使持股量增加了28.97%，对当前投资组合的影响为0.46%，总价值为6,717,644,660美元。Liberty SiriusXM Group（纳斯达克代码：LSXMK）增加了22,277,997股，总持股量达到65,486,288股。这一调整使持股量显著增加了51.56%，总价值为1,945,597,620美元。完全售出的头寸巴菲特在2024年第一季度完全清仓了一个持仓：HP Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：HPQ）：全部22,852,715股被售出，对投资组合的影响为-0.2%。主要持仓减少巴菲特还减少了五只股票的持仓，显著变化包括：苹果公司（NASDAQ:AAPL）减少了116,191,550股，持股量减少了12.83%，对投资组合的影响为-6.36%。该股在季度内的平均交易价格为181.83美元，过去三个月回报率为3.41%，年初至今回报率为-1.12%。派拉蒙全球（NASDAQ:PARA）减少了55,790,726股，持股量减少了88.11%，对投资组合的影响为-0.24%。该股在季度内的平均交易价格为12.58美元，过去三个月回报率为0.43%，年初至今回报率为-14.51%。投资组合概览截至2024年第一季度，沃伦·巴菲特的投资组合包括41只股票。主要持仓为苹果公司（NASDAQ:AAPL）占40.81%、美国银行公司（NYSE:BAC）占11.81%、美国运通公司（NYSE:AXP）占10.41%、可口可乐公司（NYSE:KO）占7.38%、雪佛龙公司（NYSE:CVX）占5.85%。持仓主要集中在技术、金融服务、消费防御、能源、通信服务、医疗保健、消费周期和工业这八个行业。截至第一季度末，伯克希尔持有苹果公司价值1354亿美元的股份，较年末的1743亿美元有所减少。尽管出售了一些苹果股份，巴菲特告诉与会者，苹果仍然“比美国运通和可口可乐更好”，除非有重大变化，苹果将继续是其最大投资。他暗示出售是出于税务考虑，并称iPhone可能是最伟大的产品之一。

（Source：Apple）苹果面临多重挑战，包括20亿美元的反垄断罚款、中国市场销售下滑和一个汽车项目的取消，今年股价下跌约5%。出售苹果股份增加了伯克希尔的现金储备，截至3月底达到了创纪录的1890亿美元。鉴于市场条件不确定，巴菲特表示他不介意积累现金，并称到本季度末可能达到2000亿美元。高现金储备受益于更高的利率，利息收入从去年的11亿美元增加到19亿美元。巴菲特表示，他近期未找到能“显著影响公司”的收购项目，这被投资者视为他对股市看法的一个信号。高度赞扬之后默默减仓，和之前分析师们对Meta股价充满信心然后调低目标价位有异曲同工之妙。

然后本次减持很有可能错在与苹果现金回购的问题。巴菲特最初持有苹果原因就是在于苹果不断回购，符合老爷子喜欢持续分红的公司的投资策略。但是本次减持，可能是看到了未来苹果回购减少，股价将收到冲击，提前布局减持。再加上苹果现在的新产品是在有点吃老本，创新型科技公司，难不成要走诺基亚的老路了？想起一句老话，屠龙勇士终成恶龙。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

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OpenAI和谷歌相继举行了新品发布会，各自发布的产品互相对标，大有互相较劲之意。但唯独在AI搜索引擎上OpenAI虚晃一枪，并未成功发布。但谷歌除了对标OpenAI已发布的产品之外还发布了受万众瞩目的AI搜索引擎产品。首先让我们来回顾一下谷歌发布会公布的几项重要成果:1. 率先发布AI搜索引擎AI Overviews

此次谷歌成功进一步扩充了Google搜索引擎的功能与Gemini模型相结合，首先谷歌会在后台针对引擎中的问题是否为复杂问题进行算法价值判断，若被划分为复杂问题，那么引擎的搜索结果将会在结果界面顶部首先生成AI结果。并且此功能还能够提供个性化行程规划功能，帮助用户详细规划行程等。2. 视觉识别和语言交互产品Project Astra对标OpenAI GPT – 4oAstra展示了AI智能体的多模态理解和实时对话功能，首先他可以通过设备的摄像头对周围场景数据等信息进行观察、记录和分析，并能够自行通过收集到的视觉数据做出自己的解读。根据发布会所展示的视频，Astra可以轻松识别各种物体代码，完成解答眼镜在哪里之类的问题，通过画面理解薛定谔的猫的概念。

但Astra目前对于所提出问题的反应速度仍然存在较长延迟，回答略显生硬。这一点尚不及GPT-4o的反应迅速和回答更加自然有感情。谷歌仍在努力缩短回答时间至可对话的程度。Astra项目展示的是谷歌未来研究的重点，即为致力于打造出一个通用AI生活助理，成为人类的生活助手。

同时得益于Gemini的多模态功能，谷歌搜索可以通过拖片搜索产品的相关信息，还能够直接圈出图片的一部分进行搜索。还另有ask photo功能可以直接在图库中定位想要找到的照片视频。3. 推出视频处理器Veo对标Sora谷歌表示Veo是目前他们所研发出来的最为强大的视频生成模型。首先他可以生成具备各种电影和视觉风格的1080p的高分辨率视频，能够理解“延时拍摄”和“风景空中拍摄”等电影术语和拍摄概念，并且Veo可以制作时长超过一分钟的视频。

最重要的是用户可以对镜头语言、视频色彩风格、以及光照等因素进行调节设定。其使用方法也十分简单，只需要用户写出描述性的文本提示即可。但目前Veo也同样暂时只提供给少量创作者进行体验，还没有向大众开放。4. Gemini1.5 Pro升级、轻量化模型Gemini 1.5 Flash

Gemini1.5 Pro此次升级后可以处理更长的文档、代码库、视频和音频记录以及更加细致的指令。升级后最多可容纳200万token，为之前的两倍。而新推出的轻量化模型Gemini 1.5 Flash有效降低了延迟时间和成本，能够更加快速高效的进行规模化服务。谷歌的产业护城河够深相信大家也都关注了OpenAI本次的发布会，二者在产品品类以及创新突破上不相伯仲，但是谷歌的优势在于他的产业护城河够深，更加能够支撑其AI转型之路。

谷歌的搜索引擎占据绝对的主导地位，每日搜索次数大概在81亿次的水平，占据91.62%的市场份额，广告业务仍在世界第一的位置占据39%的市场份额远高于Facebook和Amazon。YouTube也稳稳的占据着流媒体播放市场的王座，占97%份额具有绝对的领导地位。70%的全球手机用户是使用安卓操作系统的。以上所述的核心服务谷歌一直稳稳占据绝对的领导地位。这些核心业务贯穿人们日常生活以及工作，他自身就可以为其AI训练提供充足的用户数据。

而最值得一提的当属谷歌云计算业务收入的快速增长。目前在云计算基础服务市场谷歌占据11%份额位居亚马逊和Azure之下，但其云服务业务的收入正在快速增长。这是证明谷歌在AI领域仍有潜力的一个重要证据。就算退一步来说，在谷歌搜索近乎垄断搜索引擎市场的条件下，谷歌的AI搜索引擎研发甚至不是一定要达到一骑绝尘得地步，只要最终研发成果具有产品竞争力，功能完善，用户综合体验感是正向积极的，那么凭借其护城河的深度，核心业务的超高市场份额也能够带动人们主动过选择使用谷歌的AI引擎，毕竟谷歌已经凭借其遍布人们日常生活工作的核心业务获得了庞大的用户粘性。因此我个人认为谷歌的股票仍具有升值空间。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Olivia Huang | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

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5月13日，中国财政部本周一表示，中国将于周五起发行超长期特别国债，为实施国家重大战略和加强重点领域安全保障能力筹集资金。该计划分别于5月24日、5月17日和6月14日启动发行期限为20年、30年和50年的债券。最后一批债券的发行将于11月中旬完成。中国计划在未来几年每年发行超长期特别国债，从2024年开始发行1万亿元人民币（约合1407.9亿美元）。这些债券将用于支持科技创新、城乡一体化发展、区域协调发展、粮食能源安全、人口高质量增长等多个领域的工作。

最近网上铺天盖地的内容，都是中国高铁票涨价，房市下跌，经济压力传导到政策端。在这种背景下，来了一次特别超长期国债。历史上中国财政部发行国债的次数不多，分别是1998年的2700亿，用来弥补银行资金缺口，加快经济扩张步伐。对这个时期有印象的朋友应该知道，之后房地产市场开始逐渐起飞，毛票逐渐消失。第二次是2007年，全球经济危机背景下，发行15500亿，用来购买外汇储备，做国家对外的战略资金储备，为期15年。2017年发行了6000亿用来还旧账，2020年发行了1万亿用来抗击疫情。进入2022年之后，中国经济出现明显疲态，底层逻辑大家都知道，导致社会个人财富增长放缓，消费力减弱，社会投资降低。因此，2022年发行7500亿国债，2023年发行1万亿国债。中短期内，银行存款利率继续下调，促进居民改变资金流向。但是问题在于，大家不敢做生意，不敢投资。明确的印钱，明确的货币贬值预期，强制性的推动“老百姓不投资，那就政府来投资”。过去十年，中国人民币在2014年，达到了100万亿规模。2020年中国M2达到了200万亿规模，2024年3月，达到了300万亿。

这些钱到了哪里呢？说实话，我真的“不知道”。我相信，大部分普通群众，是没有从疫情后的大放水中获益。甚至中小生意和贷款买房的收入较低的群体，压力倍增。中国当下的困局就是，钱没有在市场上流动起来。但是钱，很多。所以，中国经济界认为，目前的困局是通胀太低，导致经济发展动能不足。所以核心目的：提高通胀。我认为这不正确。高通胀是经济发展的结果，而不应该是经济发展的引擎。很多普通百姓没有准备好接受高通胀来临，他们没有知识储备来应对这个情况。过去30年时间，贫富差距越来越大，没有富起来的人，或者说一直富不起来的人，是因为他们没有知识和能力，应对社会经济快速增长，没有知识和能力，应对货币贬值和通胀。所以，我认为，在国家做任何经济调控的时候，应该提前让普通百姓知道，这背后的逻辑，运行的规律，对大家钱袋子和生活有哪些影响。中国最早的税收，地方政府占大头。后面发现地方政府权力大，容易有腐败，地方领导人每次换届，都留给后面的执政人一堆烂摊子，各种要暴雷的风险。所以，国家干脆把钱回笼，50%财政全部归国家调配，这样方便统一管理，集中力量办大事。而目前发行的债权，国债，更直接，就是央妈直接印钱给国家，国家可以直接掌握货币的使用前。不要小看这句话，这句话背后就是，国家项目，想干啥，只要用钱能干成的，就一定可以干成。因为钱不再是问题。在国家层面的项目，都是机会。所以，未来国家要把钱放哪里？那就好看目前面临的困难在哪里。一个是房地产，一个是金融。所以，未来国家的钱，会流向房地产。房地产是指传统的住宅地产么？我不知道，大家要谨慎。房地产的风向标变了。国家进来的钱，可以投雄安新区，可以投粤港澳大湾区，而不是咱们自家小区。要明白这个区别。金融就简单了，投的钱，是为了社保和养老金铺路。说白了，为了防止几年后，养老金暴雷，那就是社会和谐的大事情。所以，中国股市，真实真正的要迎来大牛市了。股市跌，央行印钱买。简单暴力。人民财富来自于哪里？看看美国就知道了。为什么美国人民那么有钱，因为资本市场发达，资本市场发达，吸引更多参与者和资金，优质的人才。这个大家都明白，政府终于开始落地实行了。

钱袋子的问题解决了，所以，A50大家可以中长期持有。下一个致富的机会，我认为，就是A股，国家战略相关的行业，无论是粮食安全，还是AI算法。如果什么都不懂，那就简简单单的买China50,2-5年，看涨。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

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大家知道美国和澳洲的通胀从7%降低到4%用了1年，但是从4%降低到2%，可能要用2-3年，甚至更久。那用什么办法可以尽快解决这个问题呢？那就是要降低房租。怎么降低房租呢？就是要控制人口增长，怎么才能最好的控制人口？你总不能要求百姓不生孩子吧。澳洲来说就是降低移民数量，尤其是短期移民，也就是留学生数量。所以，结论就是，要控制物价，就必须减少留学生数量。本篇完。感谢您的收看，下周再见。

开个玩笑以上就是结论，咱们先把结论说了，然后再展开细说。常言道，过去2年，西方各国为了控制物价，都使用了十八般武器，但是风云变化，世事难料，俄乌战争和中东战争，加上红海的胡塞武装，让这原本应该回到3%以内的美国通胀再次出现了反弹，并且很有可能将会持续一段时间。从美国角度来说，由于其是目前全世界最大的产油国，所以相对受到油价冲击影响远远小于了欧洲和澳洲。但是和其他西方国家一样，美国同样面临房价持续上涨，租金也一起上涨的情况。我们需要知道，在西方统计物价数据时，住房通胀的权重高达最终指数的三分之一，因此对整体通胀的影响很大。而住房通胀中，房价会受到投资因素的影响，房租则更能反应市场的供需真实情况，因此后者比前者更为关键。要控制住房通胀，就必须控制租房价格的上涨。

在通胀统计里分成以下三个主要的部分：1.住房类通胀，包括建房价格和租房价格2. 商品类通胀也就是我们常见的从超市水果到电视的价格3.非住房服务类通胀。那在疫情之前，通常综合通胀怎么的出来的呢？就是超市和家电价格基本是负数，大概是-1%左右，但是租房和建房基本每年越来越贵，所以通常是2-3%的增幅。而其他服务类价格则稳定在1-2%增幅，这样构成最后的综合物价在2-3%之间。但是，目前房租每年的增幅已经不是2-3%了，就算是按照官方的统计数据，过去几年的平均增幅已经达到了7%左右。（2021到2023年）但是实际大家都知道，悉尼和墨尔本的房租价格上涨何止是6%，我估计26%都不止。原来400的，现在至少要600.就连基本的两房公寓，墨尔本已经要700，悉尼甚至要900一周。如果房租价格一直保持这么高的增长，各位学过小学数学的就应该知道，两外两项就必须是非常低的负数，才能最终把综合数据拉回在3%以内。而目前来看，超市的价格以及其他生活服务价格一个都没跌。也就是说三个主要通胀类别都是正数。在这个情况下，通胀毫无可能可以回到3%以内。没戏。

对于澳洲政府来说，选民的要求是排第一的。毕竟留学生和新移民手里没选票。因此移民其实就是澳洲政府用来拉动经济，或者控制民意的一个工具。经济不好了，就多点移民，缺点是房租就会高，道路会拥挤，治安会变差。然后民意会反对大量新增移民，政府就会看似非常尊重民意的宣布要降低移民数量来拉选票。然后民意很开心，经济之后又不行了，这时换届已经结束，就可以再提高点移民数量。基本过去20年就是这个套路。

但是，我们肉眼可见，澳洲的物价过去1年真的涨的太快。可是像类似俄乌战争，中东战争这些影响国际商品价格的事情，澳洲政府没法控制。所以其实目前澳洲可以自己做的，当务之急就是控制人口阀门，降低新移民，尤其是短期留学生数量，从而减少市场里对于租房的需求，才能降低整体的住房类通胀数据。但是我们都知道，即使现在提出要降低留学生，这也是从明年的招生计划里开始调整。也就是说，今年3月和7月开学的基本已经定了。没法改变了。这也是为什么央行给出的结论也是，到今年年底，物价大幅回落的可能性很低。因为很多影响物价的因素，澳洲自己可以控制的并不多。根据联邦政府的计划，从2025年开始澳洲各高校和其他教育机构将会大幅削减留学生人数的增幅，从2023年增幅15%削减至5%。 但是！！削减的仅仅是增幅而已，换句话就是不要多招人了。而之前目前的工党政府也已经提出，将会从明年开始削减新增移民总数，从2023年的52万人，降低到2025年的26万人。我的天。。。52万？之前不是说40万么，怎么又多了12万？

如果我没记错，澳洲目前每年新增住房大概是5万套，就算按照平均一套住5个人计算，也只能承担25万人。那这剩下的27万人，就需要从之前造好的房子里找。然后明年又会有26万人进来。虽然看上去数量减少了一半，但是和2020年之前的15-18万相比，还是多了整整10万。移民多好处就是，经济不会垮，因为硬刚需不断在增加。但是僧多粥少，就意味着有些东西大家都要抢。我知道，对于联邦政府来说，在稳定经济不要衰退，和控制物价降低房租之间永远是一个艰难的选择。但是从目前的情况来看，要降低通胀的唯一有效的办法，就是控制人口了。但是大家不用过多担心，就算是减少一半的数量，依然超过了2019年的新增移民总数。所以，要控制房租，只能说，路漫漫了。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

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随着苹果加入进AI研发领域，7大巨头在AI领域的争夺愈发激烈。目前苹果抛弃了一向低调的风格，各路舆论媒体开始密集曝光苹果的各种消息。而2024年6月无疑对苹果公司是至关重要的，因为WWDC24开发者大会即将于6月10日至14日举行。苹果公司表示，他们将以在线形式举办每年规模最大的开发者盛会。参与者将有机会亲眼见证苹果最新平台，技术和工具的发布，了解如何创建和改进应用和游戏，并与苹果的设计师和工程师进行互动。这个活动将免费使开发者能够探索各种新的工具，框架和功能，助力他们打造出理想的应用和游戏。WWDC 2024期间预计将发布的操作系统包括：iOS/iPad OS 18、tvOS 18、watchOS 11、macOS 15以及全新的visionOS。这就像一场交响乐，苹果是演奏者，而全世界的消费者则是听众。

两周前苹果公布的财报并不差，但令人们期待的亮眼新品发布并未如期而至，直到周末才传出苹果与OpenAI的合作传闻。外媒称，苹果公司即将与OpenAI达成协议，计划在下一代iPhone操作系统iOS 18中整合ChatGPT功能。自ChatGPT火爆以来，智能手机厂商纷纷加大AI相关技术的投入，令很多iPhone用户感到不满的是，苹果至今未推出自家的AI大模型产品。苹果公司传出即将与OpenAI达成协议的消息，将使iPhone用户能够体验到由OpenAI提供的最先进AI技术，包括但不限于自然语言处理和生成式AI能力。这项合作对于苹果来说具有战略意义，有助于其在激烈竞争的智能手机市场中保持领先地位，并可能引领未来AI技术在消费电子产品中的应用潮流。人们可以期待苹果在即将到来的全球开发者大会（WWDC24）上公布更多关于iOS 18及其AI功能的详细信息。

在6月开发者大会基调已经落地的时候，苹果却面临着投资者一系列的疑问尚待解答。首先是巴菲特以避税为由减持苹果股份，库克自己也在逐渐套现，这是大佬们对苹果未来的不确定性担忧，还是市场反应过于敏感了？今年苹果股价表现尚不突出。关于库克的问题，各大舆论聚焦于他即将离任的议题，甚至已经在预测苹果的下一任领导人。自乔布斯时代以来，库克领导的苹果逐渐从科技创新转向商业利益为主导，公司现金流充裕，业绩有了质的飞跃，但自乔布斯离开后，我们再也没有见到令人惊叹的苹果黑科技。现年63岁的库克是否应该让位于新人？在库克任内，苹果的执行团队几乎没有经历过大的变动，除了设计师乔尼·艾夫的高调离职和零售部门负责人安吉拉·阿伦茨的插曲，苹果团队过去几年中基本保持稳定。管理层年龄偏大，财富积累丰厚，但苹果公司却面临着极其严峻的挑战。美国和欧盟目前正在调查苹果，苹果也在努力阻止其应用商店被拆分，以保留每年200亿美元的销售额。智能手机销售面临巨大压力，中国市场前景不明朗，苹果想要撤出中国生产线却又不能得罪北京，也是一个棘手的问题。

目前，苹果押注的重要产品之一是Vision Pro，放弃了电动汽车项目后，这可能是未来几年苹果保持市场地位的关键。然而，目前的Vision Pro仍然显得有些笨拙，迫切需要快速进化。人们需要的是一种类似佩戴眼镜的产品，而不是一直佩戴笨重的头盔。距离6月苹果开发者大会还有一个月的时间，对于这次盛会的探讨已经开始，期待之情愈发浓烈。我们希望苹果能够继续屹立在创新的高峰，像乔布斯一样不断助力改善人类的生活方式，而不是只想着商业化获利。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

Tom Williams ( @TomW_GOMarkets ) is the GO Markets Head of Trading. He started out as a dealer and broker in the excitement-driven city of London across equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. Learning the technical aspects of what is now a software-driven business has allowed Tom to lead all trading operations at GO Markets, literally keeping the show on the road.

Old Scouse loves a laugh and a pint and is always affable enough to show you the bright side of life (as Monty Python says). In this episode we'll cover: What brought Tom to Australia and what he misses about the UK His role as head of trading at GO Markets The Swiss National Bank Crisis The GFC and Brexit - Transcript Disclaimer: Go Markets is a derivatives broker and Jordan Michaelides is the managing director of Neuralle Media. All opinions expressed by Jordan and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Go Markets, an AFSL license holder.

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for financial decisions nor as an indication of future performance. Clients of Go Markets may hold positions in the derivatives mentioned. A financial services guide and product disclosure statement for our products are available at the www.gomarkets.com website.

Jordan Michaelides: In this episode we spoke with Tom Williams. Tom is Go Markets head of trading and he started out as a dealer and broker in the excitement driven city of London across equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. Learning the technical aspects of what is now very a software driven business has allowed Tom to lead all trading operations at Go Markets, keeping the show literally on the road.

Tom loves a laugh and a pint, is always affable enough to show you the bright side of life, as Monte Python would say. This is a fascinating episode where we cover what brought him here to Australia and what he misses about the UK. His role as head of trading at Go Markets, particularly examples or crises like the Swiss national bank crisis, the GFC and Brexit, as well as what sitcom best portrays the Go Markets office.

If you enjoy this episode, subscribe on your podcast app and share with one of your friends, particularly those who want to get an understanding of the more technical aspects when it comes to trading and what goes on behind the scenes. With that being said, let's get into the episode with Tom Williams. Tom, thanks for joining me on me what has turned into a rather miserable Friday afternoon in the Go Markets office.

First question for you, how was the wedding? Tom Williams: The wedding was stressful, but, it was great fun. We went up to Queensland and got the families from New Zealand, from Queensland, from England, all over, and a lot of them met for the first time which was great, but stressful being centre of attention and having to entertain that many people for a few days.

Jordan Michaelides: How long had you guys been planning this wedding? How much time do you spend typically on a wedding planning? Tom Williams: For me, a lot less than my wife *laughs*.

I'd say I had a passive involvement in the organization of the wedding. Jordan Michaelides: I like that. I like that you're aware of that too.

Tom Williams: I mean, my wife's a florist, as you know, so from the events side of it she's got way more experienced than I have, I would have just messed the whole thing up if I had anything to do with it. Jordan Michaelides: Now, I want to get into how I guess a liver Puglian made his way here to Australia, but I'll give people a little bit of a background first. So, obviously you were born and bred in Liverpool.

From looking at your past history you spent about five years in the business in the city of London before you made your way out here, working in many different roles, but primarily as a dealer. Equities, fixed income, eventually CFDs as well, which is what Go Markets focuses on now. What was the catalyst that drew you out to Australia?

Tom Williams: The catalyst to go to Australia was and event that happened in 2012 when the company I was working for at the time went into administration, and there was a moment where I could either continue the daily grind in London, or take some time out and go and see the world a bit, which is what I did. I took nearly a year off and ended up in South America, which is where I met my now wife, in Peru. She was from Australia and I had to come over here to, you know, seal the deal.

Jordan Michaelides: So really it was like love that the drew you out here, you could say. Tom Williams: Well, I had no intention of moving away from the UK, you know, I never considered what it'd be like not working in the UK. I guess the opportunity was there and it seemed like the right thing to do and it's worked out pretty well.

Jordan Michaelides: Yeah, I would definitely say that. And it's so fascinating. I just look at it from your position and I don't think you would have ever expected to be in this situation five, six years ago.

Tom Williams: Absolutely. I couldn't have even imagined it to be honest. Jordan Michaelides: Also, it's interesting because of just where the UK is at and what Australia offers.

The other day I was looking at like immigration numbers the UK is still the biggest source in terms of growth through immigration, I'm pretty sure next to China. I think it's still the biggest because a lot of millennials like yourself come out here and there's just so much opportunity. You can speak the language, you get sun.

Tom Williams: Yeah. I mean the UK is a great place to live, but we just, we don't have the weather. I'm not saying that I'm much of a beach goer, but we just don't have the sorts of lifestyle that good, consistent, good weather brings.

We have long winters and miserable rainy days. Melbourne winter is considered a bad winter in Australia, but you still get lovely sunny days and it's just a more positive place to be, that people are more positive as a result of the lifestyle that Australia offers. Jordan Michaelides: And apart from your family, what do you miss the most about home?

Tom Williams: This is a question I get asked quite frequently and it's a struggle to answer it because there's not a lot that I do miss from the UK really, except family and friends to be honest. Jordan Michaelides: Not even football? Tom Williams: The football side of it, you just learn to live with it.

Thanks to Optus, you can catch up on demand pretty easily. So, to be honest, I don't miss a lot in terms of lifestyle or anything like that. Jordan Michaelides: Well, that’s good to hear.

And, eventually citizenship for yourself, like one of the other poms that we have in the office here would be good to see. I'm thinking about your family in particular, and I'm curious as I like to know from a lot of guests, if you can think back to your own childhood, and about your parents, is there a particular lesson or principle that you maybe hold with you today that you saw directly or indirectly from them, and you later realized it's a core tenant of your personality. Tom Williams: I suppose hard work, and discipline as well.

Growing up in a city like Liverpool, you could be led astray in a number of different directions. My father is a policeman, so he was always very strict and perhaps, saw me going in the wrong direction when I was younger. Nothing crazy, I'm talking just normal teenage stuff that you kind of get yourself involved in, but obviously he didn't turn a blind eye to that.

He put me on the right tracks. So, yeah, discipline, hard work. My father retired as a superintendent in the police, which is a pretty senior role to get to, and he worked very hard for it.

I guess that's always resonated with me. Jordan Michaelides: Now thinking about work, your role here is head of trading, which is a thing that people see a lot on different roles for people in different CFD and equity organizations, but they don't really know what it is. I thought maybe we'll just get into the nuts and bolts of that.

What does that look like? I'm trying to give people the context of 2003 to 2005, you would have still been on the phones a lot, taking orders. Now most systems are quite automated and electronic.

So what does your role of head and trading involve? Tom Williams: So, we try and focus on the overall client experience with the trading platform, whether that be from a cost perspective in terms of the spreads that they're paying, the commissions that they're paying, the overnight financing, all the way through to the quality of execution, so, how quickly are these clients able to execute? Are they able to execute during fast markets?

Are they able to execute around news, and we try to control the overall cost of trading to make the whole experience better for the client. Jordan Michaelides: So basically you make sure the shit doesn't hit the fan in a way. Tom Williams: Pretty much.

That's one element of it, for sure. As you touched on before, a lot of it is automated. All of our hedging algorithms, everything is automated.

It very much becomes autopilot to make sure that nothing goes wrong. And when stuff does go wrong, the most important thing that our team can do is make sure it's put right as quickly as possible. Jordan Michaelides: Are there any particular crazy stories that come to mind?

I know that in my time here we had some pretty stunning events where the markets were more than wild. I know in our last interview with Chris Gore, he spoke about dealing with the Swiss bank, taking away that peg from the Euro. I'm just curious, are there any crazy stories that you have in memory of the market just going absolutely nuts.

Tom Williams: There's definitely a few. There were a couple after the Swiss national bank crisis. Since then we've had a UK referendum.

We've had the election of Donald Trump. There's been a number of associated issues like a Sterling flash crash, which just came out of absolutely nowhere. Jordan Michaelides: When was that?

Tom Williams: That was soon after the referendum on Brexit. The market started to settle down and then out of nowhere there was a huge liquidity drain. Markets these days are so dictated by algorithms and high frequency trading systems that if there's a liquidity drain, it happens immediately.

It's not something that happens over time. So, yeah, we have witnessed a few occasions like that, but most notable is definitely the Swiss banking crisis, when the Swiss national bank just… leading up to the events, decided that they were going to tell the market that they were going to maintain this peg of 120 against the Euro and that they were committed to doing this, and Thomas Jordan, the chairman of the SNB at the time came out a week prior and said we're committed to holding this peg, then all of a sudden shocked the market and said that this is not something that we can feasibly do. I think it was the 15th of Jan 2015, so it was soon after the Christmas break, everybody was just getting back into the swing of things and all of a sudden, a phone call at 10:00 PM at night saying get into the office, the shit’s hit the fan.

So, there were a number of us in the office at the time, it was all hands on deck. Nobody really knew what was going on. The news was out, we knew what happened, but we didn't know how markets were going to react.

Nobody could really price where they thought the Swiss Frank was, banks in particular. There was a lot of uncertainty around where things actually traded, where the market is, where it should be. This went on for a week after the event, which markets have never seen before.

It was a crazy time. Jordan Michaelides: To me that’s very interesting. I mean, I've read about it, but we don't see behind the scenes, you know.

The things that you guys see. If you were to think of the most crucial aspect of your role, you spoke before about execution, liquidity, supervising, all that sort of stuff, what do you think is the most important? The number one aspect of being head of trading.

Tom Williams: I think without a doubt it's going to be attention to detail, being observance and not missing things. At the same time, it's important to remember what everybody's working towards and what the end goal is, which essentially for an online FX broker is to have a product which is efficient for the clients. The competition amongst the FX brokers these days is so… There's so many brokers out there, everybody's trying to compete on cost and these discount pricing models.

If you fall behind the wolf-pack you're going to struggle to get in front again. It's very important for us to just remember the end goal of what we're trying to achieve, which is to create this superior platform to our competitors. Jordan Michaelides: I think Chris Gore spoke about that last week that because it's so competitive now, the main advantage you have is just being trusted and people know that a company like Go Markets has been around for a while and can be trusted to maintain certain best practices or expectations through the market prices, or, the spreads that people get as an example.

I find it interesting that you said the most crucial component is attention to detail because if you think about the principles that you took away from your dad, it's working hard and discipline. And that is like the perfect thing for attention to detail. We were chatting before about what we want to talk about in this session and you spoke before about Brexit.

I feel like you would have had a bit of experience, just from memory. we had a chat years ago about the Lehman brothers collapsed and the 10 year anniversary of the GFC. The effect on the UK was pretty similar, although a bit different. The governments seemed to offer this money to these banks, but they wanted shares in return and I'm pretty sure the government did pretty well buying a large portion of Lloyd's.

I'm just curious, you got into the industry around ’09, what memory do you have of that period? Tom Williams: I was in the industry prior to ’09, I was in the industry from ’07, so I was around when all this happened but I was very young, and I wasn't in a responsible position, but I remember sheer, um, fear and. In the UK there were customers queued up at banks trying to withdrawal their cash, which obviously doesn't work because banks don't hold that amount of cash.

There were banks going into administration, there was footage all over the TVs of people packing boxes up, like Lehman brothers for example, was a huge tower in Canary Wharf which was just down the road from where I was working at the time. It was just like Armageddon, you know, people didn't really know what was going to go on after that, but things worked out okay. But you know, who paid for that whole crisis in the end, it was probably not the banks.

It was probably the people. Jordan Michaelides: Going back to that point I made about the banks basically having shares purchased by the government, it was the taxpayer's money. It went back to the government and then the UK went through a massive austerity process because it was part of the EU.

That's what you had to do. Tom Williams: Exactly. There were huge welfare cuts.

Jordan Michaelides: I reckon that’s actually why we've seen so many poms immigrated out here, simply because the opportunities dried up. It's easier to come to Australia as an Englishman and the opportunities are pretty great. There’s also a lot of family connections for a lot of people as well.

Tom Williams: It’s also quality of life. If you're a plumber or a carpenter, an electrician, a welder in the UK, your quality of life is dictated by the amount you’re able to earn in those roles in the UK. Whereas you come to Australia and everybody has a good quality of life.

There's a good sort of minimum earning for any role in. It turns out that the tradies in Australia probably do better than anyone else better. I've always loved that about Australia, the fact that there are equal opportunities no matter what sorts of road you chose to go down.

Jordan Michaelides: I'd definitely agree with that. Why Brexit came along, which I want to chat about, is because you know, you have all this immigration, austerity processes in the UK, combine that all together and you’ve got yourself the perfect storm for what happened with Brexit because if you're a plumber living in the Midlands and you're getting paid by the hour, and some guy from Eastern Europe has immigrated over and he's happy to work for 10 or 15 bucks an hour then life’s going to be pretty average, I'd say. Tom Williams: Yeah.

Brexit highlights some fundamental problems with the Eurozone, doesn't it? The Eurozone has always been criticized for being this huge block of very different economies which all governed by a single interest rates and it's always been a, a complex system from day one. The funny thing about Brexit was the lefties got behind Europe and they wanted solidarity with Europe, the city of London, which is a huge part of GDP obviously got behind Brexit because the lack of borders in financial markets is very important, but then it was the exact sort of demographic that you just highlighted, the guys who don't fit into those two baskets that I've just spoke about.

They think ‘what's in this for me?’ I suppose as with any of these decisions, it depends on what newspaper you read. If you're buying a tabloid for a pound with a page three girl and you're basing your political votes on a tabloid then that might be what happens. Jordan Michaelides: It’s interesting.

My view on it initially was this isn't a great thing, they've going backwards here. But then I've had the time to sort of process it, and, I like Nigel Farage a speaker, but, when you actually watch him in interviews he goes a lot deeper into some of the reasons why, and having been involved in similar industries such as Forex and Cryptocurrencies, we've now seen the city of London actually come out here. My own view is that the UK seems to be pivoting itself towards Asia.

And we've got these FinTech bridge, which is sort of like a compliance bridge through Australia. There's the free trade agreement which they gunning on. My own view is that actually it's probably going to turn out better for them, simply because they can use Australia as a stepping stone to the biggest market in the world, I think Asia now, without the Indian sub-continent I think is about 46% of world GDP.

So, it's the biggest market in the world, bigger than North America. How do you view it now? In hindsight?

Tom Williams: Day to day, it's purely the uncertainty surrounding how this Brexit is actually going to happen. Long-term it will work itself out, as all these things always do. It's not a case of the UK leaving the Eurozone and all of a sudden nobody wants to trade with the UK, it’s just ridiculous to think that.

I suppose it depends on the negotiating powers of the UK government, whoever's there at the time to be able to go and strike these agreements with Asia, as you've just suggested. Jordan Michaelides: It's going to be interesting. They’re not getting very far at the moment, I think it's March or something that it finishes up.

Going back to the industry now and then, last week we spoke about trends, obviously cryptocurrencies have been a big thing, I guess for the business here. There's also the fact that, like I was saying before, the role that you would have as head of trading being on a phone versus it more around automation now, I was chatting to Khim Khor before, who's one of the directors here, in charge of the Asia business, and we were speaking about the institutional side of things and APIs. I'm curious as to what you guys have done around that because he was telling me that you led something in that area in particular.

Tom Williams: So, as you know we've got a lot of retail clients in Australia and overseas and we've managed to, over the years, generate great relationships with the wholesale market in terms of liquidity providers, prime brokers, prime of primes, and, we also have a very healthy balance sheet which enables us to go and strike good liquidity terms with these counterparts. Our business has changed somewhat in that it's not completely retail led. We are approached by a lot of wholesale type clients these days, including funds, other brokers who are maybe smaller than us, who don't carry the same sorts of balance sheet, who want to be able to get access to very tight pricing, commercial terms that they might not be able to achieve elsewhere, so, we've transitioned from this purely retail driven model to now be able to compete as a liquidity provider ourselves.

Jordan Michaelides: Wow. I didn't know that. So, now if you had to break down the percentage of the clients, or let's say the amount of sales and volume of transactions between wholesale and retail, what do you reckon the percentages are?

Tom Williams: In terms of monthly turnover I'd say it's around 66% retail, 33% wholesale. I mean, the sheer volume that a wholesale client can do is obviously the reason behind that. They can have good months, they can have terrible months, but retail is still the majority of our business and that's where we try to differentiate ourselves away from competitors because it ties in with the whole online marketing and… Jordan Michaelides: It’s interesting to hear how the trading desk is changing in that regard.

It's one of those things you have to keep growing somehow. You got to keep doing new things. Tom Williams: Diversification of flow is becoming very important for us as well, because, retail tends to go completely one way and the whole retail market all read the same news so everybody kind of trades in a similar fashion, and for us to be able to reduce costs by internalization, we need to be able to see different types of flow from different demographics.

Jordan Michaelides: And put it put the opposing way out essentially. Tom Williams: Exactly. Jordan Michaelides: Interesting.

Now, what I'd like to ask each guest is, I'm giving the audience an idea of what the office here is like. I was saying to Chris last week that it’s a pretty impressive company, there's a lot of staff, I think there's like 40 or so staff now, a big office, nice officers. I just want to give people an idea of what the team is like and how… because we're so removed from seeing the people behind the business are actually like, and so I'm curious, if you were to choose one sitcom that represents the go market office, do you have one in mind or what would it be?

Tom Williams: Should I ask what Chris's answer to this was? Jordan Michaelides: Hmm. You don't want to know.

Tom Williams: Okay, well, my answer would definitely be the UK version of the office. I think we've think we've definitely got a David Brent character. Jordan Michaelides: Yes, and that would be Chris who claimed that last week.

Tom Williams: Did he claim it? Really? I must have drilled into him.

I like that. But no, the office, it's a great environment. It’s a fairly young demographic, it's not a load of old-boys sat there, it's new, educated, friendly people to work with.

It's a good place to be. Jordan Michaelides: We're running at a time, so I want to switch to some short fast, questions for you. What does your morning routine look like?

Tom Williams: My morning routine is very straight forward. I've just moved house, so my tram route to work has train changed slightly. I get into the office at around 7:00am and get in touch with what's gone on overnight. 7:00am is New York close, so there's not really a lot going on after that, markets have settled down.

Time to read some news, the ASX has still got a couple of hours to open, so, get to work, have some breakfast, get ready for the day. Jordan Michaelides: And the evening? How do you sort of decompress at night?

What's your go to for relaxing? Tom Williams: Go to the gym, go boxing, kickboxing, I do that three or four times a week. I head home, dinner will be on the table… no, I wish! *laughs* You know my wife, but no, she's good, she is good.

I just kick back most of the time. Most of the time during the week, it's an early night. Jordan Michaelides: What’s the most influential book on your life.

Let's say if you had to gift it to someone at Kris Kringle this year at Go Markets, what would you gift? Tom Williams: God, this could be controversial, couldn’t it. One that's always struck a chord with me is ‘The God Delusion’.

Have you read it? Jordan Michaelides: I just bought it. I go through this heavy process of building a list of books every year and then I buy them all at once after I cull that list.

I just got that one. Tom Williams: Well, being brought up in a predominantly Irish Catholic background in Liverpool, if you were seen walking around the streets with ‘The God Delusion’ in your hands in Liverpool you'd definitely get a few funny looks, but cosmopolitan Melbourne you can get away with it. Jordan Michaelides: Can you just give a quick little explain explainer for the audience what it's about.

Tom Williams: It's about the scientific approach to life rather than the religious approach, and how it’s completely different. They say never talk about politics or religion, so let's not go too far into it. Jordan Michaelides: *laughs* Yeah, it's a good book.

I bought that with ‘The Selfish Gene’ by Richard Dawkins which is pretty good too. They're good reads, I reckon. Another one for you, any favourite documentaries or movies, if you had to list your top three or five.

Tom Williams: I go through phases with documentaries in particular where I just binge watch something about a random topic. Jordan Michaelides: Are you a Netflix guy? Tom Williams: Yes, but, I find sometimes Netflix can just get sour, and there’s not a lot going on.

I move in trends from watching documentaries about guerrilla warfare in the democratic Republic of Congo to becoming completely fascinated with World War Two and all the things associated with it. Auschwitz is one of my most recent ones, which is a fairly morbid topic. Jordan Michaelides: Have you been there at all?

Tom Williams: I have not been, but I'd like to go. Jordan Michaelides: I'm actually in that stage again right now. I mean, I've had it over the years many times, you find a few good movies that really shows what it was like.

Schindler's, there was one called one the Wannsee conference with a brilliant English actor, Colin Firth was in it as well, just little films like that which are underrated. I'd think Schindler's list is a pretty well-known film, but just really gives you that perspective. Tom Williams: They’re completely eye, you just cannot fathom what went on.

So, to answer your question, a diverse range of documentaries. Jordan Michaelides: Last question for you, what has been the best purchase for you under $200 bucks? Tom Williams: Well, let's not talk about a purchase that I've made, what about a purchase that I'm going to make, that I'm on the verge of making?

Jordan Michaelides: It could also be a purchase that is an experience. It doesn't have to be a specific object Tom Williams: Well, we’re organizing, Fran and I, have started to organize a couple of life-size impressions of ours to send over to the UK for Christmas so we can sit them down at the Christmas dinner table and enjoy a bit of an over cook Turkey with the family. Jordan Michaelides: Wow, that's good.

I really like that. Tom Williams: So yeah, for a couple of hundred bucks, I think that will probably be the purchase of the year. Jordan Michaelides: You should start a little business like that for other experts.

Say, hey, you don’t have to go home… Tom Williams: I could be the go-to guy for life-size models. Jordan Michaelides: Tom, it's been a pleasure. We've already hit 30 minutes.

Thank you very much for joining us. Tom Williams: Thanks very much.