市场资讯及洞察
Artificial intelligence stocks have begun to waver slightly, experiencing a selloff period in the first week of this month. The Nasdaq has fallen approximately 2%, wiping out around $500 billion in market value from top technology companies.
Palantir Technologies dropped nearly 8% despite beating Wall Street estimates and issuing strong guidance, highlighting growing investor concerns about stretched valuations in the AI sector.
Nvidia shares also fell roughly 4%, while the broader selloff extended to Asian markets, which experienced some of their sharpest declines since April.
Wall Street executives, including Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warned of potential 10-20% drawdowns in equity markets over the coming year.
And Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, recently revealed his $1.1 billion bet against both Nvidia and Palantir, further pushing the narrative that the AI rally may be overextended.
As we near 2026, the sentiment around AI is seemingly starting to shift, with investors beginning to seek evidence of tangible returns on the massive investments flowing into AI, rather than simply betting on future potential.
However, despite the recent turbulence, many are simply characterising this pullback as "healthy" profit-taking rather than a fundamental reassessment of AI's value.
Supreme Court Raises Doubts About Trump’s Tariffs
The US Supreme Court heard arguments overnight on the legality of President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, with judges from both sides of the political spectrum expressing scepticism about the presidential authority being claimed.
Trump has relied on a 1970s-era emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose sweeping tariffs on goods imported into the US.
At the centre of the case are two core questions: whether the IEEPA authorises these sweeping tariffs, and if so, whether Trump’s implementation is constitutional.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett indicated they may be inclined to strike down or curb the majority of the tariffs, while Justice Brett Kavanaugh questioned why no president before Trump had used this authority.
Prediction markets saw the probability of the court upholding the tariffs drop from 40% to 25% after the hearing.
The US government has collected $151 billion from customs duties in the second half of 2025 alone, a nearly 300% increase over the same period in 2024.
Should the court rule against the tariffs, potential refunds could reach approximately $100 billion.
The court has not indicated a date on which it will issue its final ruling, though the Trump administration has requested an expedited decision.
Shutdown Becomes Longest in US History
The US government shutdown entered its 36th day today, officially becoming the longest in history. It surpasses the previous 35-day record set during Trump's first term from December 2018 to January 2019.
The Senate has failed 14 times to advance spending legislation, falling short of the 60-vote supermajority by five votes in the most recent vote.
So far, approximately 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed, and 730,000 are currently working without pay. Over 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and 750,000 National Guard and reserve personnel are also working unpaid.
SNAP food stamp benefits ran out of funding on November 1 — something 42 million Americans rely on weekly. However, the Trump administration has committed to partial payments to subsidise the benefits, though delivery could take several weeks.
Flight disruptions have affected 3.2 million passengers, with staffing shortages hitting more than half of the nation's 30 major airports. Nearly 80% of New York's air traffic controllers are absent.
From a market perspective, each week of shutdown reduces GDP by approximately 0.1%. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the total cost of the shutdown will be between $7 billion and $14 billion, with the higher figure assuming an eight-week duration.
Consumer spending could drop by $30 billion if the eight-week duration is reached, according to White House economists, with potential GDP impacts of up to 2 percentage points total.
FX traders come into the new week with an uptick in tier one economic releases to look forward to after a very slow start to the year volatility-wise. Australian and US employment figures, UK CPI and US retail sales look to headline from Tuesday onwards (Monday is a US public holiday) The Charts to watch: AUDUSD AUDUSD has struggled to find any real direction in the last week of trading after a marked decline to start the year. The pair has whipsawed in a tight range from 0.6735 to the upside with a lower range boundary of 0.6645.
With the market still undecided on the RBA’s moves going forward (peak rates? cuts?) Thursday’s job report could see the Aussie find some direction, with the above range levels the key levels to watch. After November’s bumper figure a surprise to the downside this time round could be on the cards. GBPUSD The uptrend GBPUSD has travelled in since October has petered out somewhat in 2024 to date with Cable also trading in a directionless range for the last week.
For chartists there is a multitude of important levels to watch coming into the new week. Upper trendline and cycle high resistance along with lower trendline and cycle low support being the key levels to watch this week. To add to the mix for fundamental traders we have UK CPI and retail sales along with another speaking engagement for BoE governor Bailey.
USDJPY Bucking the trend of the low volatility of other pairs, USDJPY has had s harp rally so far in 2024, following US10-JP10 yield differentials higher. Last weeks move higher in the pair saw a disconnect in the relationship and USDJPY could struggle to push much higher unless this differential turns around. US economic releases this week will play a big part in where those yields go, with retail sales, employment and consumer sentiment all due to hit the wires from Wednesday onwards. 146 to the upside and 144 to the downside the key levels to watch for the chartists.
Full weeks calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
US financial services company, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), announced Q4 2023 and full year financial results before the US open on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $12.896 billion for the previous quarter, narrowly beating analyst estimate of $12.773 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of Wall Street expectations at $0.85 vs. $1.074 per share expected.
The company achieved revenue for $54.1 billion in 2023. EPS reached $5.18 per share. Company overview Founded: 1935 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 80,257 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: James P.
Gorman (Executive Chairman), Ted Pick (CEO), Andy Saperstein (Co-President), Dan Simkowitz (Co-President), Sharon Yeshaya (CFO) CEO commentary "In 2023, the Firm reported a solid ROTCE* against a mixed market backdrop and a number of headwinds. We begin 2024 with a clear and consistent business strategy and a unified leadership team. We are focused on achieving our long-term financial goals and continuing to deliver for shareholders," CEO of Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, commented on the results in a statement to shareholders. *Return on tangible equity Stock reaction The stock was down by over 4% after the announcement of the latest results.
Shares were trading at $85.80 a share – the lowest level in over a month. Stock performance 5 day: -7.92% 1 month: -5.13% 3 months: +9.36% Year-to-date: -7.67% 1 year: -6.07% Morgan Stanley stock price targets HSBC: $96 JP Morgan: $94 UBS Group: $95 Bank of America: $100 Barclays: $116 Royal Bank of Canada: $85 Goldman Sachs: $100 Societe Generale: $80 BNP Paribas: $85 Oppenheimer: $103 Evercore: $97 Morgan Stanley is the 88th largest company in the world with a market cap of $141.14 billion. You can trade Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Morgan Stanley, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Since reaching a local bottom in October of last year, XAUUSD has experienced a strong uptrend of over 13%. Closing its third consecutive positive session, Gold is inching closer to its all-time high, now sitting just above $2,050 USD per ounce. From a technical standpoint, Gold is following a well-defined rising channel that has been predominantly respected since November 2023.
As the price approaches the midpoint of this channel, there is a possibility, especially on lower time frames, that this point may act as temporary resistance. This is a crucial level to monitor closely. Image: GOLD Chart The recent positive momentum in XAUUSD is closely tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The enduring conflict between Gaza and Israel, coupled with the initiation of a new US-led conflict in Yemen against the Houthis, has contributed to the precious metal's strength. The current economic landscape in the United States, along with projections for rate cuts in 2024, also is playing a pivotal role in Gold's recent performance. In response to US inflation climbing from nearly 0% to a peak of 9.10% in July 2022, the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times.
The rates have surged from 0.25% to the current 5.50%. Image: CPI and Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Chart Data suggests the possibility of multiple rate cuts in 2024, with some anticipating cuts as early as the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME data, market expectations indicate a projection of six rate cuts for 2024, culminating in an effective rate of approximately 3.50-3.75% by year-end.
Image: CME FedWatch Historically, the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like Gold tends to rise when interest rates decrease, contributing to the recent upward trajectory of Gold prices. Gold traders will be closely monitoring the evolving tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This scrutiny aims to draw insights into the potential timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their subsequent impact on Gold's market dynamics.
A hotter than expected CPI reading out of the UK along with a beat in US retail sales saw global markets turn risk off as rates markets hawkishly re-priced chances of cuts coming from Central Banks. The unwinding of priced in Fed cuts saw a spike in treasury yields and the USD bid, with DXY hitting a high of 103.69 after the December US retail sales report came in hotter than expected. DXY finding resistance at the July-October 50% Fib level before paring gains.
GBP saw decent gains vs the USD and EUR after a beat in the December UK CPI reading where the Y/Y figure came in at 4% vs an expected 3.8%. GBPUSD fell just short of breaching the 1.2700 level, hitting a high of 1.2696 as UK rates markets priced in a lower amount of 2024 rate cuts. JPY was weak throughout the session with losses accelerating after the US retail sales report.
USDJPY taking out the big figure at 148 rising in lockstep the US-JP yield differential. On current momentum the psychological 150 level is possibly coming into play, and with it, BoJ intervention speculation. AUDUSD extended January’s losses on the sour risk sentiment and mixed Chinese figures on Wednesday.
The Aussie holding below 0.6600 and dropping to Decembers lows at 0.6520 before finding some support. AUD traders have todays key December employment report to look forward to, after a bumper November reading this one will be watched closely.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) announced Q4 2023 financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Friday. The US bank reported revenue that fell short of estimates of $23.5 billion vs. $23.703 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported well below analyst expectations at $0.35 per share vs. $0.533 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1998 (via the merger of BankAmerica & NationsBank), 1956 (as BankAmerica), 1784 (as its predecessor, the Massachusetts Bank, through the merger with FleetBoston in 1999) Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 217,000 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Brian Moynihan (Chairman and CEO), Anne Finucane (Co-Vice chairman), Bruce Thompson (Co-Vice chairman) CEO commentary "We reported solid fourth quarter and full-year results as all our businesses achieved strong organic growth, with record client activity and digital engagement. This activity led to good loan demand and growth in deposits in the quarter and full-year net income of $26.5 billion. Our expense discipline allowed us to continue investing in growth initiatives.
Strong capital and liquidity levels position us well to continue to deliver responsible growth in 2024," CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan said in a press release. Stock reaction The stock was down by just over 1% on Friday at $32.77 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -5.68% 1 month: -3.35% 3 months: +21.36% Year-to-date: -3.55% 1 year: -7.82% Bank of America stock price targets Barclays: $43 Odean Capital Group: $37.94 Goldman Sachs: $33 Oppenheimer: $51 BMO Capital Markets: $40 Jefferies Financial Group: $28 Evercore ISI: $33 Morgan Stanley: $32 Piper Sandler: $27.50 Royal Bank of Canada: $35 HSBC: $35 Wells Fargo: $40 Citigroup: $33 UBS Group: $36 JP Morgan: $34 Bank of America Corp. is the 39th largest company in the world with a market cap of $256.76 billion.
You can trade Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays. Please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Bank of America Corp., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, MarketBeat
热门话题
周三，澳大利亚股市飙升至历史新高，ASX 200 指数当日收盘上涨 1.1%，达到 7680.7 点，比2021 年 8 月创下的上一收盘纪录 7628.9 高出 51.8 点。盘中新高一度触及7682.3。
而澳元对美元不到2小时内暴跌0.6%，累计跌39.4个基点，最低0.65592。
澳洲物价超预期放缓促使澳元短线下跌的主要原因是澳洲通胀超预期放缓至近两年低点4.1%。其实通胀这个话题我们已经聊了2023年一整年了。大家知道澳联储多次的加息就是为了打压物价，抵抗通货膨胀。所以目前的通胀数据超预期放缓对于大家来说应该是个好消息。这代表澳联储今年不仅没有加息的空间，很可能还会开始降息。这对于有房贷压力，以及2023年生活成本增加的大家来说绝对是比较振奋人心的。澳洲下半年可能降息目前市场认为澳联储今年不太可能进一步加息，但是第一次降息也不会太早发生，因为现在通胀下降的速度是达标了，但是澳联储定下的通胀区间是2-3%，目前4.1%的物价水平还是略高了一些。降息可能至少在今年下半年9月份之后开始，到2024年底前，可以期待一下会有两次降息。
GO Markets投资机会解析在2024年降息的大背景下，首先利好的就是股票市场，投资者可以交易我们今天提到的澳股指数，也可以优先关注对利率敏感的公用事业和房地产板块。当然，我们也可以选择交易澳元货币对，目前影响澳元的因素除了今天我们提到 的澳洲不加息，还需要考虑到美国以及中国的经济政策情况。但是可以明确的是，澳元将在区间内运行，因此多空双方都有投资机会。这里可以优先关注澳美及澳日货币对。