市场资讯及洞察

USD was bid in Mondays session with the US Dollar Index following US treasury yields higher after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell over the weekend where he pushed back on market pricing of rate cuts starting in March. A beat in the ISM Services PMI data also supporting DXY as rate cut odds in March dropped down to around 17% from the 35% chance priced in at the close on Friday. JPY continued its decline with USDJPY printing a new high for 2024 at 148.89.

US 10 Year yields broke above 4%, seeing the US10Y – JP10Y rate differential jump higher and take USDJPY with it. USDJPY holding above the psychological 148 level and eyeing the 150 “intervention zone”. AUDUSD saw significant weakness with USD strength and a miss in the Chinese Caixin Services PMI weighing.

For AUD traders’ attention today will turn to the RBA rate decision at 14:30 AEDT. The Central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but it will be the accompanying statement that will generate the most interest, will the RBA take a note out the Feds book and push back against rate cut expectations? Gold dipped to 1-week lows on a stronger USD and a surge in yields making the non-yielding metal look less attractive.

XAUUSD dipping to a low of 1025 before finding some support and re-tracing modestly. Gold continuing to trade in the 2024 range of 2000 – 2070 USD an ounce. Both key levels to watch for Gold traders going forward.

USD started the session weaker with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting a low of 102.94, as it was weighed on by dovish economic data, with misses in ADP employment and Employment Cost Index. This turned around dramatically after what was seen as a hawkish result out of the FOMC where the Fed left rates unchanged as expected but pushed back on the markets expectation of near term rate cuts. Chair Powell also said he “does not think a March rate cut is likely”, this saw futures reprice to a 35% chance of a cut in March, from 50% going into the FOMC which was USD positive.

Ultimately DXY finishing almost unchanged on the day, with the 200-day SMA and 50% fib resistance still capping further upward momentum. JPY was the only G10 currency to outperform the greenback on Wednesday, with it showing strength pre and post the FOMC rate announcement. USDJPY dropping to test the big figure at 146 before finding some support.

Yield differentials between US-JP 10 Y tightening significantly the main driver in this pair and price plays catch up to the downside. A hawkish BoJ summary saw JGB yields move higher more than offsetting the hawkish reaction to the FOMC in US yields. AUDUSD dipped below 0.6600 after a cooler than expected CPI figure out of Australia weighed on the local currency, along with USD strength post FOMC.

The next big level to the downside for this pair is the 2-month low support at 0.6525, a level that could come into play with major US data still to come this week, headlined by Fridays NFP.

USD drifted lower in Tuesday’s session, the US dollar index retracing a good chunk of Mondays gains. Regional bank fears were at the fore, with NYCB continuing its steep decline in an otherwise quiet session news wise. This saw the haven of bonds bid, sending yields lower and dragging the USD down with them.

DXY dipping back below its 100 Day SMA. AUD outperform after a hawkish hold from the RBA in their February meeting on Tuesday. The Aussie Central Bank left rates unchanged as expected, but in a break with other major central banks, that have recently removed their tightening bias messaging, stated that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out.

AUDUSD pushing up to test the Support/Resistance level of 0.6525 which will be a key level to watch in the week ahead. Lower US yields causing a drop in yield differentials saw JPY gain, with USDJPY dipping below 148. A Reuters report that claimed that the BoJ is laying the groundwork to end NIRP by April also lending some support to the Japanese currency.

A weaker USD and some haven flows on bank fears saw gold bounce higher after two down sessions. XAUUSD continues to trade in a tight range with the upside capped at 2070 USD an ounce and good support to the downside around 2020.

USD was ultimately lower on Wednesday after a rollercoaster of a session. Broad risk-on sentiment early on saw the Dollar Index (DXY) plummet to hit a low of 102.77 until strong S&P Global Flash PMIs coupled with souring risk sentiment after a dismal US 5yr auction saw a sharp turn-around. DXY retaking the 103 handle at session end, with the 50% Fib resistance the level to watch on the upside.

CAD was under pressure with steep losses against all majors in the aftermath of the BoC rate decision. The Bank of Canada held rates at 5.0% as expected but the Bank's decision to omit language that it is prepared to raise rates further if needed was seen as a dovish and hammered the CAD lower, USDCAD moving higher to 1.3525 and looking set to re-test the resistance level at 1.3541. EUR saw decent gains against the USD.

Europe saw beats in Flash PMIs headline figures for EU, German and French Manufacturing which supported the single currency. Though EURUSD was unable to hold the key resistance and psychological level of 1.09 as USD strength returned later in the session. EUR traders also have the ECB rate decision to look forward to later in the session, the ECB is expected to hold, but as always it will be the messaging traders will be watching.

GBP also saw strength in the aftermath of strong UK PMIs, as manufacturing, Services, and Composite all topped expectations. GBPUSD rallied to test the trend line resistance before pulling back on USD strength, with 1.2772 being a key level to watch in today’s session.

USD saw gains on Thursday with the US Dollar index (DXY) pushing above 104 before again finding resistance at the 100-day SMA. A rise in UST yields after a better than expected jobless claims figures. In data ahead Dollar traders will be focussing on the US CPI revisions.

EUR was mostly flat vs the Dollar with EURUSD trading down to 1.0750 before rebounding. ECB speak saw Wunsch state he sees some indications, not strong ones, that wage growth is softening, while Holzmann suggested there is a chance the ECB will not cut rates this year. JPY was the G10 underperformer after commentary from BoJ officials that was perceived as dovish.

Deputy Governor Uchida hinting that the BoJ will not aggressively hike rates, even after ending NIRP. USDJPY jumped to a high of 149.46 with the move higher in rate differential also lending support to this pair. AUD and NZD sold off after softer than expected China inflation data.

AUDUSD dropping back below the key 0.65 level, NZDUSD testing support at 0.6075 before retracing modestly. This also saw AUDNZD drop for a 4 th straight session, down to 1.0650.

World’s second largest oil & gas company, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), announced results for the previous quarter before the market opened on Friday. Exxon Mobil stated that the revenue reached $84.344 billion for the quarter, which was below analyst estimate of $90.032 billion. Earnings per share was reported at $2.48 vs. $2.196 per share expected – beating Wall Street estimates for the first time since Q1 of 2023.

Company overview Founded: 1882 Headquarters: Texas, United States Number of employees: 62,300 (2022) Industry: Energy Key people: Darren Woods (chairman & CEO) CEO commentary ''Our consistent strategy and execution excellence across the business delivered industry-leading earnings and enabled us to return more cash to shareholders than our peers in 2023 1,'' Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon said in a press release to investors. ''These results demonstrate the fundamental improvements we’ve made to our business, reflecting our progress in high-grading our portfolio through investments in advantaged projects and select divestments, while, at the same time, driving a higher level of efficiency and effectiveness throughout the business. The foundation of our success comes from the resiliency, hard work and commitment of our people. As I reflect on our industry-leading results over the past year, I have a great sense of pride in what our people accomplished,'' Woods concluded.

Stock reaction There stock was up by just under 1% during the trading day on Friday, trading at around $103.38 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +0.29% 1 month: +0.65% 3 months: -4.16% Year-to-date: +3.32% 1 year: -7.70% Exxon Mobil stock price targets TD Cowen: $115 UBS Group: $132 Redburn Atlantic: $119 Mizuho: $117 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $127 Royal Bank of Canada: $120 Sandford C. Bernstein: $140 Truist Financial: $131 Jefferies Financial Group: $145 Morgan Stanley: $134 Bank of America: $150 Wells Fargo & Company: $130 Redburn Partners: $105 HSBC: $116 Piper Sandler: $127 Exxon Mobil Corporation is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $412.82 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

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