市场资讯及洞察

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日本央行在周二做出了历史性的决定，废除了全球范围内最后一个负利率政策，并且自2006年以来首次提高了利率。这一举措标志着日本央行对国内经济的信心，同时也反映出其在应对全球金融环境变化中的策略调整。通过结束长达17年的超低利率时代，日本央行旨在正常化其货币政策，同时管理通胀预期和促进经济的稳健增长。这一决策对国内外投资者都传递了强烈信号，预示着可能对全球金融市场产生重要影响。

我们先来回顾一下日本经济近30年的一个发展。在20世纪90年代末，日本经历了其历史上最大的资产泡沫破裂后，日本央行从1991年开始采取降息措施，用了超过两年的时间将利率从6%下调至1.75%。由于在同一时期美国也处于降息周期，因此这一措施并未取得预期的效果。到了1995年，日本采取了紧急措施，同时实施货币政策和财政政策：央行将利率降至0.5%，政府开始执行大规模的基础设施建设项目以刺激需求和促进国内消费，经济随之出现回暖迹象。然而，这一期间并未能解决信贷膨胀和坏账等根本性问题。1997年，日本银行和保险公司的破产潮开始，导致1998年民间贷款数量大幅下降，市场资金减少。从1998年开始，日本陷入了通货紧缩的恶性循环：需求减少导致不得不降价销售，进而导致物价下降、企业营业额和利润减少，人们收入降低，需求进一步减少。1999年，日本首次实施了零利率政策，并开始大量发行国债，注入第二剂强心针。2001年至2006年，日本实行量化宽松政策，直到经济出现好转，停止了量化宽松，利率得以恢复。然而，2008年的全球金融危机加上2011年福岛核电站事故，使日本再次面临重大危机。

2012年，安倍晋三和黑田东彦携手为日本经济注入了第三剂也是最强烈的一剂强心针，采用了安倍经济学的三支箭政策。其主要措施包括大规模的量化和质化宽松（QQE），通过市场操作控制短期和长期利率，尤其是通过购买国债来刺激长期贷款；以及承诺在消费者价格指数同比上涨超过2%的目标并保持在此水平以上之前，将继续扩大货币基础。从日本央行的资产负债表可以看出，自2013年起，其规模呈指数级增长。尽管采取了QQE和负利率政策，期望能激发经济活力，但由于人口老龄化和市场恐慌情绪的影响，这一政策并未完全达到预期效果。到了2016年，收益率曲线控制（YCC）政策开始实施，并继续其量化宽松政策的一部分。

随着2020年新冠疫情全球爆发，导致全球GDP、需求以及出口大幅下跌，日本政府发现先前的经济刺激措施未能达到预期效果。面对这种情况，日本政府采取了史无前例的强力经济刺激措施，包括发行大量国债（导致国债占GDP的比例急剧上升）和大规模印钞（进一步扩大了资产负债表），同时直接向市场注入了近1万亿美元的流动性。这些措施伴随着全球供应链的混乱和世界各大工厂重新启动，帮助出口回升并降低了失业率。此外，2022年俄乌战争引发的能源危机导致油价上涨，给日本带来了输入型通货膨胀，使得通货膨胀率上升至4%。

（source：VOA）说回到这次加息，日本央行的决定废除负利率体现了其对国家摆脱长期通缩困境充满了信心。同时，央行放弃了自2016年起实行的收益率曲线控制策略（YCC），并且停止购买风险资产。那这里解释一下什么是YCC。收益率曲线控制（Yield Curve Control，YCC）是一种货币政策工具，旨在通过央行的干预来控制长期利率的水平。这种策略的核心思想是，央行通过承诺买卖无限量的政府债券，来控制某一特定期限（如10年期）的国债收益率，从而影响整体的利率环境。通过这种方式，央行试图对经济进行更广泛的影响，包括刺激经济增长、控制通货膨胀，以及影响货币汇率。解释完YCC，继续刚刚话题。虽然停止了YCC，但是央行仍将按照先前相似的规模购入政府债券，并承诺在收益率急剧上升时增加购买量，以避免借贷成本的激增。日本央行暗示未来的加息步伐将是温和的，并预期将“短期内维持宽松的财政环境”。决策发布后，市场和传统经济学的逻辑背道而驰。（通常加息会导致货币升值，并且利空股市）日本股市上扬，并且创了历史高，而日元兑美元也开始暴跌，美日直逼151。

（Source：TradingView）综合来说，市场解读这一举措为日美利率差不会缩小的信号。美国将会温和降息，日本将会温和加息。那么日元定价还是应该符合预期的150左右。所以在之前加息消息出来之前，日元已经提前涨了，但是这次相对鸽派的消息出来后，日元又跌回去了。隔天市场情绪升温，日元继续暴跌，美日直逼152。日经指数也在周四创下新高的40700.

（Source：TradingView）随着黑田东彦时代的宽松货币政策接近尾声，市场、分析师和公众的关注点转向了日本央行何时会进一步提高利率。商业银行已开始计划自2007年以来首次上调某些存款利率。野村证券和法国巴黎银行预计央行将在年底前加息。自2013年起，日本央行推出了大规模的资产购买计划，初衷是在两年内将通胀率推升至2%。然而，由于通胀温和，2016年央行引入了负利率和收益率曲线控制策略，以期使其刺激计划更为持久。

去年，由于日元大幅贬值增加了进口成本，并加剧了对日本超低利率政策的质疑，央行调整了其收益率曲线控制策略，放宽了对长期利率的控制。尽管如此，债券收益率的飙升仍然是一个风险，因为它会增加日本庞大公共债务的融资成本，目前这个债务规模已经是其GDP的两倍，居发达国家之首。再加上停止廉价资金供应也可能冲击全球金融市场，主要原因是日本投资者可能将其海外投资资金回流回国内。当然去年的日元贬值也使得日本出口激增，特别是去年的日系车，大家都在疯抢。疫情之前被抢走的出口份额被疯狂的抢回。同时，日本旅游业和地产也发光发热，吸引了不少海外游客和投资者。

尽管央行已经缩减了刺激措施，但它下调了对经济的评估，并警告消费有疲软的存在。央行指出，通胀预期还未稳定在2%目标，暗示相比其他央行，日本央行可能会更慢地加息。一旦日元开始升值，那么对于进出口势必造成影响，对于投资风向也可能转变，套息交易的游戏规则即将发生改变。后续的市场发展其实还是很大可能还是回归传统逻辑，加息后日元升值，美日开始下跌。不过就是需要时间和一定的空间，投资者们可以提前布局准备。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

热门话题

2月28日，苹果公司宣布他们努力了十年之久的电动车制造项目Titan计划正式破产。并且他们会将未来的发展重心放在全力研发生成式人工智能上。其造车团队的部分员工也已转岗至人工智能团队。这一消息可谓是轰动了一整个科技圈。苹果的股价也因此下滑了10%之多。

但尽管如此，苹果投入全部精力研发AI这件事情对于身为苹果忠实用户的我来说是个再好不过的消息。我相信不只是我，对于已经用习惯苹果ios系统的广大消费者来说，苹果在系统创新性研发上面的愈发疲软问题是目前最困扰大家的一点，那么如果苹果能够顺利转型，大众预期又会有怎样的变化呢？尤其是苹果与谷歌计划联手打造生成式人工智能了。早在2014年，苹果提出了计划打造出一款配备了革命性内饰且具备全自动语言导航驾驶系统的最先进的电动汽车这一大胆且具有创新性的项目。其创新理念是将电动汽车打造为一个移动起居室，方便人们在其中办公生活一体化，节省时间成本以及增加办公舒适度等。

因此苹果在设计上引入了很多新奇的构想，包括将座舱设计为微型巴士形式、吊舱式等。在外观上也设想过方形面包车式以及下切的高尔夫铁杆头样式的车头等。车箱的内部则是设计成前部有apple tv，座舱顶部设置有iPad大小的控制面板可以对常规功能进行设置，将苹果的生态系统闭环应用的淋漓尽致，同时也会设计一款可以向车厢两侧送气的特殊空调以避免对着乘客的脸直吹。然而苹果的造车之旅可谓是困难重重。首先，在自动化驾驶级别的设定上由于内部意见不一致以及实现的可能性问题苹果在不断地妥协，从最初的5级完全自动化驾驶设想最终降至2级，这也就意味着他们又要在内部设计上重新调整了。就这样在这十年间，为了平衡功能需求，实现难度，现实法规伦理约束等一系列问题，苹果可以说是费心费力费钱，筋疲力竭。预计的apple car面世时间也从2026年推迟至2028年。

压死苹果造车梦的最后一根稻草无疑是现如今自动化电动车领域的市场份额已经几乎没有剩余空间了。据最新数据显示比亚迪（21.1%）和特斯拉（16.01%）依旧牢牢占据市场领先地位，即使苹果能够克服重重困难研发成功，他想要迅速抢占自动化电动车市场的份额也几乎是不可能。就这样在研发难度大，成本高，利润微薄，并且造车风潮已然逐渐退场的境况下，苹果放弃了努力十年的造车梦全力转向AI领域。那么在人工智能遍地开花的时代，前有英伟达的实力压迫，后有Open AI这一头猛虎的强势赶超，苹果又将依靠什么脱颖而出呢？这不本周一苹果就迫不及待抛出噱头。有消息透露苹果正在与谷歌洽谈将Gemini人工智能引擎应用于iPhone，安卓霸主与ios系统鼻祖要联手一起搞事情了，这可是足以造成股市震动的历史性大事件！

果然苹果股价周一涨幅0.64%，期间最大涨幅逼近3%

谷歌当日最终涨幅为4.6%，期间最大涨幅波动超过6%

苹果与谷歌目前的处境可谓是同病相怜，三星推出的AI实时语音翻译功能，小米的AI摄影功能等抢尽了先机，相比之下苹果的Siri就显得极其普通甚至有些时候可以说是非常的气人的，从上图iPhone近三年间过山车一般的出货市占率也能够感受到苹果的尴尬处境。而谷歌则是处于被微软和Open AI的双重打压之下，Gemini与Sora两大模型几乎同时问世但却远不及Sora的功能酷炫，谷歌未能激起太大的水花。但是如果谷歌和苹果可以最终达成合作，成功的将Gemini模型嵌入ios系统使得苹果能够在手机端实现新的生成式AI功能，让用户实现与Siri进行多轮对话，那么这可以说将是一个质的飞越。究竟苹果与谷歌能否最终达成战略合作呢，让我们拭目以待。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Olivia Huang | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

FX markets enter the new week with market sentiment firmly risk-on with all-time highs seen in US and Japanese indexes after a blowout earnings report from AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) sent stocks surging. Ahead this week we have key inflation data out of the US, Australia and Japan along with a RBNZ rate decision which is certainly in play. The Charts to watch this week Gold – XAUUSD Despite the buoyant market sentiment gold gained last week as the USD chopped around without real direction.

XAUUSD finding good support at the 2020 USD an ounce level in the second half of the week. This will be a key level to watch coming into Thursdays PCE inflation data out of the US a cooler than expected reading could see the USD decline continue and likely to add to golds bullish recovery. USDJPY Japanese inflation data released Thursday is expected to show a sharp drop in January due to a high base last year this could impact the JPY even further, raising doubts around one of the Bank of Japan’s two conditions for policy normalisation and be bullish for USDJPY.

Though above 150 there is the specter of BoJ intervention such as we saw at these levels late in 2022. Currently 150 has become a support level for USDJPY, but upside in this pair seems capped with little upside momentum shown recently, FX traders no doubt cautious at these levels. AUDNZD Both AUD and NZD outperformed last week as market optimism and steps by Chinese authorities to support their stock market lifted both the Antipodean currencies.

NZD did outperform the Aussie though, with AUDNZD hitting new 9-month and 2024 lows. This week will be a big one for AUDNZD traders, with Aussie CPI expected to rise and a RBNZ rate decision where the bank is expected to hold rates both happening on Wednesday. The market is pricing in a 30% of a hike from the RBNZ, so whichever way they go expect some volatility in NZD crosses over this announcement.

Full Economic calendar of the week ahead at the following link: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) recently briefly overtook Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) as the fourth largest company in the world after the share price rose to a new all-time high of $746.11 on 14/2/24. Since then, the share price has fallen by over 9%, pushing the company back to sixth place. On Wednesday, investors were awaiting the latest results from NVIDIA, which were released after the US market closed, and they did not disappoint.

The company achieved revenue, which topped Wall Street estimates at $22.1 billion vs. $20.395 billion expected. Revenue was up by whopping 265% from the same period last year. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $5.16 vs. $4.593 per share estimate.

EPS grew by 486.36% year-over-year. Full year revenue increased by 126% to $60.9 billion. Company overview Founded: 1993 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 26,196 (2023) Industry: Computer hardware, computer software, cloud computing, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, GPUs Graphics cards Consumer electronics Video games Key people: Jensen Huang (President and CEO) CEO commentary "Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point.

Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations, " Jensen Huang, CEO of the US company said in a press release to shareholders. " Our Data Center platform is powered by increasingly diverse drivers — demand for data processing, training and inference from large cloud-service providers and GPU-specialized ones, as well as from enterprise software and consumer internet companies. Vertical industries — led by auto, financial services and healthcare — are now at a multibillion-dollar level," Huang concluded. Stock reaction Shares were down by 2.85% at the end of trading on Wednesday as investors were waiting for the latest earnings results.

The stock rose by over 5% in after-hours trading. One to watch at the open on Thursday. Stock performance 5 day: -8.99% 1 month: +9.60% 3 months: +38.05% Year-to-date: +35.80% 1 year: +224.05% NVIDIA stock price targets Rosenblatt: $1,100 Cantor Fitzgerald: $775 Piper Sandler Companies: $850 Loop Capital: $1,200 Wedbush: $800 Oppenheimer: $850 Wells Fargo & Company: $840 Susquehanna: $850 UBS Group: $850 Mizuho: $825 Morgan Stanley: $750 The Goldman Sachs Group: $800 Raymond James: $700 Tigress Financial: $790 KeyCorp: $740 DA Davidson: $410 NVIDIA Corporation is the 6 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $1.660 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap, Macrotrends

The much awaited NVDA Q4 earnings didn’t disappoint with the tech giant knocking it out of the park, handily beating analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines. For the quarter, Nvidia reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.16 on revenue of $22.1 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of $4.60 on revenue of $20.4 billion.

For context the same period last quarter Nvidia reported EPS of $0.88 on $6.1 billion, a huge jump which saw NVDA stock surge over 7% after hours, touching the all-time highs set earlier in February. Gold rallied for the fifth straight session despite hawkish leaning FOMC minutes which saw a dip in XAUUSD to test the 2020 support level before rebounding. AUD and NZD were modestly up against the USD, with NZD outperforming its Aussie peer, sending AUDNZD below 1.06 and testing the 2024 lows, this despite Aussie Q4 wage price data coming in hotter than expected, rising to 4.2% against an expected 4.1%.

Some pricing in of a RBNZ hike next week seemingly the driver of NZD strength in this cross.

Chinese electric vehicle company Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) announced Q4 and 2023 fully-year results before the US market opened on Monday to kick off a new trading week. Li Auto achieved revenue of $5.878 billion (up by 136.4% from Q4 2022) vs. $5.599 billion expected. EPS was reported at $0.594 per share in Q4, above estimate of $0.446 per share.

Full-year revenue reached $17.44 billion in 2023. The company delivered 376,030 cars, an increase of 182.2% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 19,396 (2022) Industry: Automotive Key people: Li Xiang (Chairman and CEO), Yanan Shen (President), Tie Li (CFO) CEO commentary Li Xiang said this in a statement to investors after the company announced better-than-expected results: "Undeterred by the fiercely competitive NEV market in 2023, Li Auto achieved an outstanding performance with its three Li L series models.

Full-year deliveries grew by 182.2%, reaching 376,030 vehicles, making us the best-selling brand among NEVs priced above RMB300,000 in China. In December, we released the OTA version 5.0 for Li L series. With comprehensive enhancement in autonomous driving and smart space, we bring even more exceptional experience to family users.

With our significantly increasing scale, continued research and development advancement, and consistently improving operating efficiency throughout the year, 2023 marks our best financial performance yet, setting a solid foundation for Li Auto’s growth to diversify its product matrix and cater to a broader range of user needs in 2024." Stock reaction The latest results not only had a positive impact on Li Auto stock but on the whole EV market in general. Li Auto shares surged by over 18% on Monday, trading at $41.34 a share – the highest level since 20/11/23. Here is how other EV stocks performed on Monday.

Stock performance 5 day: +27.35% 1 month: +44.89% 3 months: +1.47% Year-to-date: +7.65% 1 year: +72.93% Li Auto stock price targets Deutsche Bank: $41 Bank of America: $60 Barclays: $48 HSBC: $43 Morgan Stanley: $40 Li Auto Inc. is the 465 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $41.18 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".

GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.

Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Li Auto Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap