市场资讯及洞察
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特朗普的伊朗战争，最终大概率不会以“大获全胜”作为结束标志，而真正决定这场冲突何时收场的，是特朗普还能承受多大的政治、经济与舆论压力。问题在于，伊朗显然比他更能忍痛。也正因如此，特朗普即便选择撤出，也一定会把这一切包装成一场胜利；而伊朗必然会确保外界不会轻易相信这种说法。这正是特朗普如今最深的困境：他可以宣布结束，却未必有能力定义结束。
如果特朗普在动手之前更认真评估过后果，他本可以为今天的局面做更多准备。首先，他原本应该提前补充美国战略石油储备。俄乌战争之后，美国战略石油储备已明显下降，却始终没有得到有效回补。一旦中东战火扩大，油气供应受到冲击，能源价格飙升几乎是必然结果。相比在危机爆发后被动补救，事先做好准备的成本显然低得多。
其次是提前争取海湾阿拉伯国家的支持，至少让这些关键地区盟友在政治和能源层面与美国保持协调。然而问题在于，特朗普自己始终没有清晰、稳定、可执行的战争目标。没有人愿意为一场目标模糊、边界不清、结果难料的战争站台。结果就是，他不仅没有换来坚定支持，反而面对一个日益焦躁、愤怒、充满不安的海湾地区。
第三，他也没有为美国公众做好心理准备。任何一场针对伊朗的冲突，都不可能只是一次轻描淡写的军事打击。它天然带有升级风险，可能拖长，可能外溢，也可能反噬全球能源市场和美国自身经济。可特朗普并没有为美国社会讲清楚这些代价，更没有为一场可能持续更久的对抗建立政治耐受度。于是，当战争真正进入消耗阶段时，他将发现自己并没有足够的国内空间去承受它。
而这恰恰是当前局势最危险的地方。即便伊朗遭受重创，也不意味着它失去了继续施压的能力。它仍然可以威胁海湾航运，恐吓油轮远离关键海域，也依然有能力扰乱地区能源生产。只要霍尔木兹海峡的通行安全无法被彻底保证，全球能源市场就始终处在阴影之下。除非美国愿意付出占领伊朗的代价，否则特朗普根本无法真正消除这种风险。更何况，伊朗的无人机与非对称作战体系本就高度分散，不可能靠几轮空袭就被连根拔起。
同样，特朗普也没有能力决定伊朗未来由谁统治。政权更迭从来不是外部军事打击就能轻易塑造的结果。阿富汗和伊拉克早已证明，美国可以摧毁一套政权机器，却很难按自己的意志重建一个稳定、听话、亲美的新秩序。即便哈梅内伊体系被削弱，继任者也未必更温和，反而很可能更强硬、更封闭、更敌视美国。在这种背景下，特朗普想逼出停火、迫使伊朗让步，甚至幻想所谓“无条件投降”，都显得愈发不现实。
于是，他手里其实只剩下两个高风险选项。
一个是通过突击行动夺取伊朗剩余的高浓缩铀库存。若行动成功，特朗普也许能获得一个勉强体面的退场台阶，并借此宣称自己“摧毁了伊朗核威胁”。对于一个极度在意自己形象、又急于摆脱“临阵退缩”标签的总统来说，这种闪电式战果的诱惑无疑巨大。但问题在于，这种行动的失败成本也极其高昂。历史上，吉米·卡特营救伊朗人质失败，几乎直接埋葬了他的总统生涯。特朗普已经反复高调宣称自己“摧毁了伊朗核计划”，一旦现实打脸，他恐怕承受不起这样的政治后果。
另一个选项是占领或切断伊朗关键石油出口节点，例如哈尔克岛，从源头上打击伊朗财政命脉。这听上去像是一种更具压迫力的战略手段，但实际风险甚至更大。因为这不再是一次短促、有限、可控的打击，而意味着更深程度的军事卷入、更长时间的兵力部署，以及更高概率的地面消耗。这不仅会进一步推高石油危机，也可能把美国直接拖入一场它原本并不想真正承受的长期冲突。从回报来看，这几乎是一次极其鲁莽的豪赌。
现实是，美国国内对这种战争的耐受度，远没有特朗普想象得那么高。今天的美国社会，对海外战争的容忍度早已不复昔日。公众不愿接受长期消耗，更无法容忍不断上升的油价、市场动荡，人员伤亡。也就是说，特朗普最可能的结局，不是彻底取胜，而是在代价迅速上升之后选择退场。
抛开这些问题，伊朗在这次冲突中向世界证明了一件事：真正能够保障自身安全的，不是克制，而是核武器。过去几年，伊朗已经多次遭受以色列与美国主导的军事打击。对于这个政权而言，如果不想在未来几个月或几年内再次陷入同样境地，那么最有说服力的自保逻辑，就是尽快提升核威慑能力。即使外部情报与打击能力再强，也未必能彻底摧毁伊朗的核潜力；相反，这场战争反而会把“拥核求生”的逻辑推得更加牢固。更危险的是，其他国家也会从中得出类似结论：在一个越来越不稳定的世界里，真正能防止外部打击的，也许不是国际规则，而是足够强的威慑能力。
而特朗普最难修复的损失，并不只是油价、战损或地区局势，而是美国信誉的进一步流失。世界会记住的，不只是这场战争本身，更是美国政府在尚有其他选项时，依然主动选择动武的方式。战争本应是穷尽外交、威慑、谈判与制裁之后的最后手段，但特朗普给外界留下的印象，却更像是沉迷于展示“杀伤力”和强硬姿态。这样的选择，也许能制造一时的震慑，却会长期侵蚀美国作为理性领导者的可信度。
所以，特朗普真正面对的，不是一场能否赢下的战争，而是一场他很可能无法体面收场的战争。他可以宣布胜利，却无法保证世界买账；他可以选择撤出，却无法阻止伊朗在未来继续抬高原油价格；他可以暂时压低战火，却无法消除这场冲突在核扩散、能源安全与全球信任层面留下的长期阴影。从这个意义上说，特朗普不是在掌控战争或是向世界证明我依旧是那个老大哥，而是变成了世界动荡开始的催化剂。
American online streaming service company, Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), released its latest financial results for Q4 of 2023 after the market closed on Tuesday. Netflix reported revenue of $8.833 billion for the quarter (up by 12.5% year-over-year) vs. $8.723 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $2.11 per share, falling short of Wall Street estimate of $2.219 per share.
The company added 13.1 million new paid subscribers in Q4 2023 vs. 8.97 million subscribers expected – the largest Q4 subscriber growth ever. Total number of paid subscribers has now reached 260.8 million – a new record. It looks like company’s crackdown on password sharing is paying off.
Company overview Founded: 1997 Headquarters: Los Gatos, California, United States Number of employees: 12,800 (2022) Industry: Media, Entertainment Key people: Reed Hastings (executive chairman), Ted Sarandos (co-CEO), Greg Peters (co-CEO) Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.33% at the end of trading day before the latest results were announced at $492.19 a share. The stock rose by around 7% in after-hours trading as Wall Street digested company’s performance in Q4 2023. Stock performance 5 day: +2.28% 1 month: +0.20% 3 months: +18.96% Year-to-date: +1.09% 1 year: +35.28% Netflix stock price targets Benchmark: $425 UBS Group: $560 Piper Sandler: $475 KeyCorp: 545 Bank of America: $585 Oppenheimer: $600 Citigroup: $500 BMO Capital Markets: $566 The Goldman Sachs Group: $500 DZ Bank: $495 Wedbush: $525 Morgan Stanley: $550 Netflix Inc. is the 49th largest company in the world with a market cap of $215.42 billion.
You can trade Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Netflix Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) reported Q4 2023 and full year financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday to kick off another week of earnings. US pharmaceutical and consumer goods company reported revenue of $21.395 billion for the last quarter of 2023, beating analyst estimate of $21.022 billion. Revenue grew by 7.3% vs. the same quarter in 2022.
Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $2.29 per share vs. $2.281 per share expected. EPS was up by 11.7% year-over-year. The company achieved revenue of $85.159 billion in 2023 – up 6.5% vs. 2022.
EPS reached $5.20 per share – down by 15.3% from 2022. Company overview Founded: 1886 Headquarters: Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States Number of employees: 130,000 (2023) Industry: Pharmaceutical, Medical Technology Key people: Joaquin Duato (Chairman & CEO) CEO commentary "Johnson & Johnson’s full year 2023 results reflect the breadth and competitiveness of our business and our relentless focus on delivering for patients. We have entered 2024 from a position of strength, and I am confident in our ability to lead the next wave of health innovation," Joaquin Duato, CEO of Johnson & Johnson said in a statement.
Stock reaction Shares of Johnson & Johnson were down by around 1% during Tuesday’s session after the latest results were announced, trading at $160.02 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -0.38% 1 month: +2.41% 3 months: +5.74% Year-to-date: +2.02% 1 year: -4.99% Johnson & Johnson stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $215 Raymond James: $175 Wells Fargo & Company: $163 UBS Group: $180 Royal Bank of Canada: $178 Morgan Stanley: $171 Barclays: $162 HSBC: $175 Atlantic Securities: $170 Credit Suisse Group: $175 Stifel Nicolaus: $175 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $180 Citigroup: $185 Guggenheim: $161 Johnson & Johnson is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $384.14 billion. You can trade Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Johnson & Johnson, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) released the latest financial results for the last quarter of 2023 and the full year on Tuesday. The New York based financial firm reported revenue of $11.318 billion for the quarter vs. $10.797 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $5.48 per share vs. $3.617 per share expected.
Total revenue reached $46.25 billion in 2023. Full-year EPS reported at $22.87 per share. Company overview Founded: 1869 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 48,500 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Lloyd Blankfein (Senior Chairman), David M.
Solomon (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, commented on the latest results: "This was a year of execution for Goldman Sachs. With everything we achieved in 2023 coupled with our clear and simplified strategy, we have a much stronger platform for 2024. Our strategic objectives underscore our relentless commitment to serve our clients with excellence, further strengthen our leading client franchise and continue to deliver for shareholders." Stock reaction Shares of Goldman Sachs were up by 0.71% at the end of trading day on Tuesday, trading at $380.45 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -2.77% 1 month: +0.45% 3 months: +20.26% Year-to-date: -1.99% 1 year: +1.10% Goldmans Sachs stock price targets BMO Capital Markets: $357 JP Morgan: $421 UBS Group: $440 Barclays: $493 Morgan Stanley: $333 Oppenheimer: $468 JPM Securities: $440 Citigroup: $380 HSBC: $403 Credit Suisse: $410 Wells Fargo: $390 Bank of America: $425 Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. is the 109th largest company in the world with a market cap of $123.38 billion. You can trade Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Goldmans Sachs Group Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
USD was flat in Monday’s session with DXY trading in a tight range from 103.110-103. 370 amid a light economic calendar ahead of the major risk events from Tuesday onwards. DXY still capped to the upside by the 50% Fib level resistance as traders look to be waiting for rate decisions from the BoJ, BoC and ECB before taking a USD view. AUD, and NZD were the G10 underperformers.
AUDUSD trading just above 0.6600 early in the APAC session before reversing course and retracing all of Friday’s gains. NZDUSD breaking support at 0.6084 to set new 2024 lows. AUD and NZD weighed on by a broad-based selling in the Chinese market.
JPY was flat against the USD ahead of today’s BoJ policy meeting. Comments from Japanese PM Kishida requesting firms provide larger pay rises this year supporting the Yen somewhat. The BoJ isn’t expected to make any changes to current easy money policy but any mention of a timeline for rate normalisation would be Yen positive.
USDJPY still trading in a tight range, just holding the key level of 148 coming into the BoJ announcement.
The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) released Q4 and 2023 full-year earnings results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday. The US financial services company reported revenue of $4.459 billion, falling slightly short of analyst estimate of $4.494 billion. Revenue was down by 19% vs.
Q4 of 2022. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $0.68 per share (down by 36% year-over-year) vs. $0.638 per share expected. Full year revenue reached $18.837 billion, down by 9% vs. 2022.
Full year EPS reported at $3.13, down by 20% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Westlake, Texas, United States Number of employees: 35,300 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Charles R. Schwab (co-chairman), Walter W.
Bettinger (co-chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Walter W. Bettinger, CEO of Charles Schwab, commented on the latest results: "Over the course of 2023, our commitment to clients was unwavering. Through an uneven environment with shifting views on the trajectory of the U.S. economy, persistent geopolitical unrest, and a temporary disruption within the regional banking sector, our "no trade-offs" value proposition continued to resonate with investors.
Clients entrusted us with $306 billion in core net new assets during the year, including over $43 billion in December alone. This ongoing success with clients helped push total client assets to a record $8.52 trillion at year-end. Additionally, we welcomed 977 thousand new-to-firm retail households as well as 315 advisors-in-transition to Schwab.
In total, we added 3.8 million new brokerage accounts to increase our total client base to 34.8 million accounts." "As we move forward with our key initiatives, we remain as confident as ever in our "Through Clients’ Eyes" strategy. Our client focus has guided our culture and operating priorities for five decades and we believe it keeps us best positioned to sustain long-term profitable growth into the future," Betting added. Stock reaction Shares of Charles Schwab were down by 1.34% at the end of trading day on Wednesday at $63.45 a share – the lowest level since 7/12/2023.
Stock performance 5 day: -3.60% 1 month: -5.47% 3 months: +22.40% Year-to-date: -7.78% 1 year: -22.03% The Charles Schwab Corporation stock price targets Citigroup: $70 Raymond James: $78 TD Cowen: $77 Goldman Sachs: $71 UBS Group: $82 JP Morgan: $85 JMP Securities: $77 Barclays: $57 Morgan Stanley: $64 Deutsche Bank: $69 Jefferies Financial Group; $62 Piper Sandler: $75 Bank of America: $53 Credit Suisse: $67.50 The Charles Schwab Corporation is the 120th largest company in the world with a market cap of $115.64 billion. You can trade The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Charles Schwab Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
热门话题
特斯拉股价连遭市场重锤，年初至今仅一个月左右跌幅达到惊人的30%，投资者是该抄底还是离场呢？
在最新公布的财报季，特斯拉是“科技七巨头”中唯一2023年第四季度的业绩不及市场预期的，表现显著不及美股大盘。今天我们的核心观点是比较明确的，我们长期仍看好特斯拉这只股票，同时中短期特斯拉的不利因素也会结合技术面给大家做一个分析，帮助大家更好的理解。特斯拉股价短期不利因素首先，特斯拉股价跌破200美元主要原因之一是四季度盈利下降。这主要受到经济环境不佳的影响，处于加息后的缓冲期，市场需求低迷。同时，来自中国新能源车企的激烈竞争也对特斯拉构成了压力。目前新能源车的赛道思路比较明确：拼价格。这个带来一个什么问题呢？从现实的财报来看，价格竞争策略导致了利润的侵蚀，而且降价并不能显著提升营业收入。另外从预期看，此前资本的关注点集中在新能源汽车上，导致对特斯拉股价寄予较高期望，而现实中新能源车利润率可能反不如传统车企。其他的短期负面新闻，比如马斯克550亿美元薪酬方案被美国法官驳回，SAP移除特斯拉作为供应商等，都是非常短期的影响。核心的股价下降还是来自于车这个业务大板块的盈利问题。特斯拉：不止是车企可能这样听下来咱们特斯拉的持有者会觉得很负面，但是不要急。我们为什么说市场上仍然有很多人包括我们长期坚定看好特斯拉。大家先回答一个问题，特斯拉是车企吗？肯定大部分人会说是，包括我们看财报上也全是关注新能源车部分的数据。但我们认为特斯拉并非仅仅是一家车企，而是有望在长期内整合和落地人工智能科技的公司。目前资本新风口就是AI人工智能，而其实马斯克几年前就早已展示过他对AI的布局与野心，他表示长远来看人们会将特斯拉视为一家AI公司，而不是单纯的汽车或者新能源企业。AI版图当中，比如特斯拉基于AI运算架构的完全自动驾驶系统FSD，Optimus人形机器人都在未来有望进一步实现其AI版图的商业化和变现。
特斯拉股价技术面分析特斯拉自从财报公布后股价持续下跌一个月，前平台支撑194附近已经跌破，目前成为反弹阻力位置，区间下部强支撑位在遥远的152平台，但周级别技术面已经出现止跌现象，加上又有2021年5月的182平台作为短线支撑，若本周守住182平台，2月有望走出一波小反弹。
