市场资讯及洞察

After the BOJ's action yesterday, the ramp-up of earnings season, treasury auctions, and a flurry of data over the next few days—including U.S. jobs data—market attention will briefly focus on the U.S. interest rate decision this evening. Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed members will conclude their two-day meeting today and release the latest rate decision to a waiting financial world. The rate decision itself is unlikely to hold any surprises, with virtually no chance of any movement from the 5.5% rate from last month.

What will be watched with interest, of course, is the accompanying policy statement. Each syllable will be picked apart for any clues about future direction. Perhaps even more influential will be the subsequent press conference held by the Fed Chairman.

There is no doubt that inflation remains too high, and the economy, although showing signs of strain, remains—some would suggest—surprisingly robust. The latest GDP and jobs data attest to this and thus provides the FOMC with the opportunity to remain relatively hawkish about rates staying high for a "prolonged period." Markets have priced in no action to lower the rates until well into 2024. In terms of market response, both in equities and the USD, as well as near 16-year-high treasury yields, Jerome Powell will continue to walk the proverbial tightrope.

He will strive to not appear overly hawkish while continuing the narrative of sustained high rates. We suspect that little change will be telegraphed in both the written and spoken word from the Fed tonight. This is probably the preferred scenario for market sentiment.

However, be under no illusion: any deviation from this expectation is likely to result in significant market moves. Consider your risk approach for today, not only with this possibility in mind but also the plethora of other information that the market will be bombarded with over the coming days.

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) released its latest financial results before the opening bell in the US on Tuesday, beating analyst estimates for the third quarter. Company overview Founded: February 6, 1978 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 471,600 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Ted Decker (President & CEO), Craig Menear (Chairman) The results The US retailer reported revenue of $37.71 billion (down by 3% year-over-year) for Q3 vs. $37.591 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.81 per share (down by 10.14% year-over-year), above $3.755 per share estimate.

CEO commentary "Our quarterly performance was in line with our expectations," Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot said in a press release to investors. "Similar to the second quarter, we saw continued customer engagement with smaller projects, and experienced pressure in certain big-ticket, discretionary categories. We remain very excited about our strategic initiatives and are committed to investing in the business to deliver the best interconnected shopping experience, capture wallet share with the Pro, and grow our store footprint. In addition, our associates did an outstanding job delivering value and service for our customers throughout the quarter and I would like to thank them for their dedication and hard work," Decker added.

Shares of Home Depot rose by over 6% on Tuesday after the latest earnings results. The stock was trading at $307.06 a share – the highest level since 25/9/2023. Stock performance 1 month: +3.58% 3 months: -7.71% Year-to-date: -2.95% 1 year: -1.73% Home Depot price targets Stifel: $306 RBC Capital: $303 Truist Securities: $341 HSBC: $365 Jefferies: $384 Morgan Stanley: $350 Wedbush: $350 Wells Fargo: $360 Barclays: $333 JP Morgan: $335 Goldman Sachs: $350 Home Depot Inc. is the 26th largest company in the world with a market cap of $307 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

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USD rallied strongly in Thursday’s session after a quiet start following dismal demand for US 30 year-treasuries at a scheduled bond auction, seeing yields surge and taking the USD with them. The push higher was later given an extra boost by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish statements during a panel organized by the IMF. In a scheduled panel chat the FOMC head said that “policymakers are not confident that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the 2.0% target in a sustained manner.” That was enough to see the USD bulls take charge with DXY up 0.4% for the day, while yields also spiked, this saw some volatility in USD cross pairs and gold we’ll look at the highlights in the charts below.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDJPY pulled back last week after the BoJ tweak to their YCC saw Japanese bond yields rise, giving the Yen a boost. However, as has been the case with this pair in the last 12 months the uptrend quickly resumed, with USDJPY breaking back above the key 151 level and heading towards its 2022 and 2023 high of 151.72. At these levels there is always the threat of a BoJ currency intervention, so traders will need to keep an ear out for any jawboning from BoJ members telegraphing such a move.

If the BoJ steps aside a test of the upper trend line at 154 could be a possibility. If they do step in we could see a decline to a 146 handle and lower trendline before finding any technical support. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has reversed lower this week after the upward momentum failed at the key 2010 resistance level.

Risk premium priced into gold also started to unwind after gaza conflict haven flows pushed the price rapidly higher from early October. Thursday session did see a modest bounce, despite a rampant USD which could give the bulls some hope, however the 23.6 Fib level, which acted as short-term support on the way down now seems to have switched to resistance. This will be the level on the upside to watch (1963.78), the next resistance from a technical point of view will be the 2010 level.

To the downside the 38.2 Fib at 1934.79, which also matches up with the 200 day SMA looks to be the first real support level.

AUDUSD dropped in Tuesday’s session with AUD being weighed on post-RBA decision, as the less hawkish RBA guidance outweighed the widely anticipated 25bps hike to 4.35%. Though the market reaction was a little curious given the small changes to the accompanying statement hardly made it dovish. The RBA changed its forward guidance to say "whether further tightening of monetary policy is required...will depend upon the data" from the previous “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required".

The push lower was also exacerbated by based weakness in the commodity space after a miss in Chinese trade data. Looking at the chart for trading opportunities we can see AUDUSD is trading in a defined range with major resistance at the 0.6500 level and major support at 0.6300 which opens up range trading opportunities with defined stop losses above or below these key levels, another key level is 0.6400 being the mid-price of the range and a level that price has chopped around recently. I think we are likely to see a bit more weakness in AUD on the back of the RBA and risk premiums coming out of gold and oil putting pressure on those commodities.

USDJPY continues to drift higher above the key 150 level into past intervention territory after the dip last week after the BoJ tweaked their YCC to extend the band, allowing Japanese yields to move higher and giving support the Yen. The drop in US yields over the past week and the modest gains in Japanese yields has seen the US 10-year / Japanese 10-year rate differential fall steeply, this rate differential has been a key driver of the USDJPY rate. However, as seen on the chart below USDJPY is remaining stubbornly high despite this, with a decent gap opening up between the rate differential and USDJPY rate.

Whether this gap “fills” i.e. a drop in USDJPY to reflect this rate differential is the question, going from the recent past it would look likely unless we see another leg higher in US yields. For Yen traders the October BoJ SOO released on Thursday will be the next decent data point to keep an eye on.

AUDUSD AUD saw gains to come within a whisker of the key 0.64 level, after hawkish leaning commentary from RBA Assistant Governor Kohler, who noted the decline in inflation is more gradual than previously thought. The Aussie also helped by a weaker USD and improved risk sentiment. The 0.64 level will be key in the near term as the mid-point of AUDUSD 3-month trading range is likely to act as resistance and support and will dictate which side of the range AUDUSD will be testing next.

USDJPY USDJPY rose to fresh peaks of 151.92 before a sharp move lower in the cross was observed without any clear catalyst which of course generated suspicions of intervention, especially given the move happened around 10am EDT, where intervention has occurred before. Also adding to the intervention narrative was comments from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki during the Asian session where he spoke of “undesirable moves in the FX market”. USDJPY fell sharply from 151.92 to 151.19 but did retrace back to 151.70 after the dust settled, if this was a BoJ intervention it seems the 152 level may be the line in the sand and one to watch closely for Yen traders.

XAUUSD Gold rallied on Monday, recouping around half of Fridays losses after finding support at its the Oct lows to highs 38.2 fib retracement level which also matches up with the 200-day SMA. A weaker USD and falling yields also giving gold a boost along with residual safe haven demand.

Last week’s action in the FX markets was shaped by a pushback by the Fed chair Jerome Powell and assorted other Fed members on markets pricing in a less hawkish Fed going forward. What was seen as a dovish FOMC and a big miss in NFP the week before saw traders piling back into risk assets with traders hoping for a less aggressive Fed, it seemed pushback from Powell and company was inevitable, and pushback we got with a slew of hawkish comments from the Fed chair and his colleagues. USDOLLAR Last week’s fluctuations in the USD highlighted the influence of yields as the US Dollar index tracked the US 10-year yield almost tick for tick.

Key inflation figures from the US this week will test the Feds recent hawkish narrative with US CPI figures out on Tuesday and PPI out on Thursday. The US dollar index did stage a comeback last week, whether that comeback continues this week will be shaped by these figures one would expect. GBPUSD In the UK the recent hold in rates by the BoE has traders feeling that their rate hiking cycle is done and dusted with market pricing favouring another hold at the BoE December meeting with only a 9% chance priced in of a hike.

Sterling traders this week will be watching employment data out on Tuesday, UK CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. It would take some big beats to move the needle on rate hike expectations, but with limited data left after this week before the banks next meeting, these readings will take on extra importance. GBPUSD has been trading in an upward sloping channel since late September, the levels to watch over these announcements will be support at the lower band around 1.2170 and resistance at the top band around 1.2470.

AUDUSD The Aussie took a beating last week after what was widely seen as a dovish rate hike out of the RBA on Tuesday, AUDUSD had been testing major resistance at 0.6500 before reversing course and crashing down to 0.6340 by the end of the week. AUDUSD is now in the lower half of its 3-month range and finding some support but Chinese industrial production and Australian wage data on Wednesday along with Australian employment data Thursday could see the key support level at 0.63 is in play if these figures miss expectations. Full calendar of major news releases below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/