市场资讯及洞察
Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)
Key areas in focus
Intelligent Cloud (Azure)
Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.
Productivity and Business Processes
Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.
Personal Computing
Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.
Artificial intelligence
Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.
What happened last quarter
Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues.
Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.
Last earnings key highlights:
- Revenue: US$77.7 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted)
- Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
- Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year
- Operating income: US$38.0 billion
How the market reacted last time
Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.
What’s expected this quarter
Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.
Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):
- Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion
- EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted)
- Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency)
- Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable
- Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out
*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.
Expectations
Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.
Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.
Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16th January 2026.
These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian traders
Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.
As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
US software giant, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE), reported Q4 and fiscal year 2023 financial results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: December 1982 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 26,000 (2022) Industry: Software Key people: Shantanu Narayen (Chairman & CEO) The results Revenue reported $5.048 billion for Q4 and reached $5 billion mark for the first time (up by 12% year-over-year) vs. $5.014 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $4.27 per share vs. $4.134 per share expected.
Fiscal year 2023 revenue reached a new record of $19.41 billion – a new record and an increase of 10% year-over-year. EPS reported at $16.07 per share, up by 17% from the year prior. Adobe expects revenue to reach between $5.10 to $5.15 billion in first quarter of fiscal year 2024, which would fall below analyst estimate of $5.16 billion.
CEO commentary ''Adobe drove record revenue of $19.41 billion in FY23 and 17 percent year-over-year EPS growth, with strong momentum across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud. Adobe’s strategy, category leadership, ground-breaking innovation, exceptional talent and global customer base position us well for 2024 and beyond,'' Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe said in a letter to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 1.48% at the end of Tuesday, trading at $624.26 a share.
Share price fell by around 6% in the after-hours trading after the release of the latest results as future guidance fell short of estimates. Stock performance 1 month: +6.44% 3 months: +14.47% Year-to-date: +88.29% 1 year: +86.41% Adobe stock price targets Citigroup: $675 BMO Capital Markets: $690 KGI Securities: $730 Piper Sandler: $650 DA Davidson: $640 Oppenheimer: $660 HSBC: $519 Barclays: $640 Bank of America: $660 Adobe Inc. is the 28th largest company in the world with a market cap of $288.50 billion. You can trade Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
USD continued to run higher in Monday’s session with US yields surging to highs not seen since 2007. Beats in both US manufacturing and employment data along with some hawkish Fed Speak supporting yields. Monday’s risk tone started off upbeat after the US Congress came to an agreement over the weekend to narrowly avoided a government shutdown, however this soured during the session seeing most equities finish in the red and supporting the USD with haven flows.
DXY surged through the psychological 107.00 level its highest print since November 2022 and having its biggest up day since February. EUR fell victim to USD strength despite a similar move higher in Euro Zone bond yields. EURUSD pushing below the key 1.05 support level from highs of 1.0591 earlier in the session.
EU Manufacturing and employment data were both in line with expectations, failing to offer the Euro any extra support. Some hawkish ECB talk from member de Guindos where he dismissed talks of rate cuts also not enough to lift the single currency. Technically EURUSD has no clear support from here until the next big figure at 1.04 though it has entered oversold territory on the daily RSI which may lend some temporary support.
USDJPY rose to highs of 149.90 on the surge in US treasury yields just short of the psychological 150 level where traders seem to be wary of pushing through, cautious of a BoJ intervention. Yen weakness came despite jawboning from the Japanese Finance minister and beats in manufacturing data. Yield differentials still the driving force in USDJPY as carry traders pile in, though with some caution at these levels.
AUS and NZD were sharply lower against the USD with risk sentiment souring as the session progressed, base metals also saw pressure, seeing the AUD underperform. NZD also saw notable underperformance but was not as soft as AUD, AUDNZD falling below the key 1.07 level. A big couple of days ahead for the two Antipodeans with the RBA meeting today and RBNZ tomorrow.
Today’s RBA meeting will be the first under Governor Bullock's stewardship with markets expecting the RBA to keep rates unchanged traders will be more interested in the accompanying statement where they will be eyeing any deviations that supports another hike by year-end. Todays Calendar:
热门话题在2024年伊始，Nvidia，英伟达，这个在2023年让全世界都为之疯狂的科技巨头再次引起了市场的关注。在过去几个月里英伟达不断努力突破每股500美元的股价大关，终于在近期实现。继去年在标准普尔500指数中取得了辉煌后，其股价又创下了新高。如今，Nvidia的市值已超过1.3万亿美元，距离亚马逊——全球市值第四高的公司——仅有2500亿美元的差距。
（Source：Tradingview）这种显著的股价上涨不仅反映了市场对Nvidia的极高期望，也凸显了其在人工智能计算领域芯片的强劲需求。根据彭博社的数据，Nvidia在第三季度的收入增长达到了惊人的206%，预计第四季度将实现232%的增长。这一成绩背后，是Nvidia不断创新和持续领先于市场的技术实力。“Nvidia正处于一个快速增长的大市场中，并在其中占据着主导地位。” Silvant Capital Management的首席投资官迈克尔·桑索特拉这样评价Nvidia的市场表现，并预测2024年将是该公司又一个收益丰厚的年份。在最近与摩根大通分析师的一次采访中，Nvidia的首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯重申了公司首席执行官黄仁勋的观点：在人工智能相关产品需求持续强劲的推动下，Nvidia在2025年的日历年度里有望继续实现增长。这一讲话进一步增强了投资者对Nvidia未来发展的信心。然而，2023年对Nvidia来说并非一帆风顺。拜登政府加强了对中国的芯片出口限制，这对英伟达造成了冲击，因为中国市场占到了其上一财年销售额的21%。面对这一挑战，Nvidia灵活应对，推出了性能较弱的图形芯片版本，旨在维持其在全球市场的竞争力，并承诺将在今年推出适用于数据中心的类似产品。
（Source：Nvidia）本周，Nvidia宣布推出了三款新的台式机图形芯片。这些新芯片包含了增强的人工智能功能，使个人电脑能够更高效地处理AI任务，而无需依赖互联网远程服务。这一举措不仅显示了Nvidia在产品创新方面的实力，也预示着其在个人电脑市场上的进一步扩张。随着Nvidia预计于下月公布收益报告，市场对其2024年的表现充满期待。伴随着其在人工智能、图形处理和数据中心领域的持续创新，Nvidia无疑已成为科技行业的一个闪耀明星，其未来的发展值得投资者和行业观察者密切关注。当然，在科技这个这个市场中，没有人可以常年霸榜，如果不进步迟早被超越，像AMD，Amazon等等的竞争对手们可都在努力想要赶超英伟达。加密货币市场也迎来好消息。美国证券交易委员会（SEC）于周三批准了一系列比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），这一举措预计势必将促进加密货币的增长。SEC快速通过了11个ETF在主要交易所如纽约证券交易所的上市申请。这些ETF允许投资者参与资产价格波动，而无需直接拥有这些资产。
（Source：Utoday）Ryze Labs的投资副总裁Thomas Tang表示，这一决定代表着数字资产领域迈向主流合法性和接受的重要时刻。ETF的推出，尤其是在受监管的框架下，为数字资产领域带来了机构级的信誉。截至2022年底，全球ETF的资产总额达到6.7万亿美元。此次SEC的决定为主流金融机构如富达和贝莱德提供的交易工具打开了大门，同时使投资者能够通过更传统的交易方式参与比特币投资。SEC主席Gary Gensler强调，尽管批准了某些比特币ETP的上市和交易，但SEC并未批准或认可比特币本身，投资者应对比特币及其相关产品的风险保持警惕。北卡罗来纳州共和党众议员、金融服务委员会主席Patrick McHenry对这一决定表示欢迎，认为这将为投资者和市场提供更广泛的接触这一代际技术的机会。虚拟货币面向大众化，也是未来元宇宙雏形的开始，总的来说这将是一个好的开始。科技未来瞬息万变，抓住机会，提早上车，才可以不错过时代给我们的福利。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师
热门话题周二， 澳大利亚统计局公布2023年11月零售季调后销售额361.8亿澳元，同比增长2%，高于预期的1.2%。
消费者在10月减少支出可选消费的支出而留待年末的折扣季购物狂欢。上月10月该数据录得负值，为-0.4%，9月则为1%。环比来看，2023年11月对比去年同月零售销售增长2.2%。环比趋势来看，今年在加息环境下，零售销售的环比增长趋势呈现下行，自2022年8月录得19.4%环比增长后断崖式下跌（澳联储同年5月开启首次加息）。这是由于加息收紧了市场流动性，在通货膨胀与信贷紧缩的大环境下，消费者减少零售支出也在意料之中。
今年年底的黑五购物狂欢自然是本次录得优于预期数据的主要推手。今年各商家线上线下营销活动较往年较早开始布局，物流速度有所提升，以尽全力刺激消费。但是投资者需要降低对于12月零售数据的期待，相关专家表示黑色星期五的销售往往会蚕食周边月份的支出，自 2019 年以来每年经季节性调整后的零售额都会出现下降。即 11 月支出猛增，12 月支出大幅下降。2022 年，11 月支出增长 1.5%，但 12 月支出下降 4.2%。2021 年，11 月份支出增长 6.6%，但次月支出下降 4%。因此预计 12 月的零售额将会下降。另外零售商的反馈似乎也印证该观点。在今年加息的缩进裤腰带消费节奏下，尽管黑色星期五和网络星期一创纪录销售，澳大利亚零售商协会表示部分零售商反馈圣诞节的销售情况不佳，销售额和客流量下降了两位数。12月零售销售数据甚至可能以外低于预期，投资者需提前关注。那么今年消费哪家强？从行业分类来看，家庭用品零售增长 7.5%，其次是百货商店（4.2%）；服装、鞋类和个人配饰零售（2.7%）。黑色星期五销售的成功得益于消费者为应对加息环境下的生活成本压力而寻求折扣。此外，11 月份，食品相关行业均出现上涨，咖啡馆、餐馆和外卖食品服务以及食品零售业均上涨 0.4%。
降息、消费与经济增长零售数据对于判经济现状和前景具有指导作用，因为零售销售直接反映出消费者支出的增减变化。目前市场认为美联储已经停止加息，而澳洲央行通胀控制较其他央行略有落后，此为澳洲后续加息留下一定空间。因此销售数据的支撑之一是宏观环境，而这也与经济紧密相关。如果澳联储软着陆并考虑降息，零售支出可能会因此增加利好经济。反之，如果利率将在更长一段时间居高不下并且通货膨胀反攻，那么生活成本和经商成本仍将居高不下，投资者可转而关注澳元，与美国息差之下澳元将得到支撑。尽管较宏观与投资环境尚不完全清晰，非必需品零售商的股价已在提前计价购物狂欢与降息。S & P/ASX 200 非必需消费品指数上涨，近一年上涨12.78%。
其中Wesfarmers、JB Hi-Fi作为主要零售商近一年涨幅超20%，而 Coles、Harvey Norman、Myer则录得跌幅。投资者可以根据2024年宏观情况与经济数据关注相关股票题材，如果您需要对于澳股更为详尽的了解，欢迎联系GO Markets分析师为您进行一对一市场资讯分析，开启澳股交易之旅。
免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师
US software and hardware manufacturer, Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL), announced results for its fiscal 2024 second quarter after the market close on Monday. Company overview Founded: June 16, 1977 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 164,000 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software, business software, cloud computing, computer hardware, consulting Key people: Larry Ellison (Executive Chairman & CTO), Jeff Henley (Vice Chairman), Safra Catz (CEO) The results Oracle reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates of $12.941 billion (an increase of 5% year-over-year) for the quarter vs. $13.052 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.34 per share, above analyst estimate of $1.327 per share.
CEO commentary "Demand for our Cloud Infrastructure and Generative AI services is increasing at an astronomical rate. As a measure of that demand, Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) climbed to over $65 billion—exceeding annual revenue. Our cloud businesses are now at nearly a $20 billion-dollar annual revenue run rate, and cloud services demand continues to grow at unprecedented levels.
Business is good and getting better," Safra Catz, CEO of the company highlighted the growth of the company in a statement to investors. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.34% at the end of trading on Monday at $115.13 a share. The stock fell in the after-hours trading by around 9% after Oracle missed revenue estimates for the previous quarter.
Stock performance 1 month: 0.86% 3 months: -9.14% Year-to-date: +40.85% 1 year: +41.65% Oracle stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $107 Evercore ISI: $135 BMO Capital Markets: $130 Piper Sandler: $130 Guggenheim: $150 Berenberg Bank: $110 Mizuho: $150 HSBC: $144 JP Morgan: $100 Barclays: $147 UBS Group: $135 Citigroup: $138 Oracle Corporation is the 26th largest company in the world with a market cap of $315.22 billion. You can trade Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
热门话题繁花开局美国道琼斯从100点涨到1000点，用了60年，中国上证从100点涨到1000点，只用了一年。繁花第一集的时间，恰逢1992年前后，美国道琼斯3000点，中国上证1000点。时至今日，美国道琼斯37000点，上涨12倍，中国上证不足3000点，上涨接近3倍。
美国股民的财富，在同样的时间段内，超过中国股民4倍。意味着老美1992年人均GDP 2.5万美金，用一年GDP价值投资美股，不计算复利的情况下，至今是30万美金，虽不富有，但是却能买一套房子。也意味着咱们的股民，1992年人均GDP366USD，用一年GDP价值投资中国A股，同样不计算复利，至今上涨3倍，是8000人民币，公平点的来说，在繁花拍摄的上海，能买0.1平方的房子。2024年刚冒头，就扎心。同样，是躺平。同样，是用1992年的财富。追赶，很难，像极了初中生数学题中的追赶问题。A先跑出去了，速度很快。B在后面追，跑的慢。B在提速，按照10%的速度，A也在提速，按照3%的速度。跑了一段时间后，B的速度降到5%。问何时能追上。进步是同时发生的。我们看到了国产手机，追逐苹果的过程，看到了国产电动车，追逐特斯拉的过程，希望国货能够继续强大，中国企业能够更加强大，GDP上来了，经济发展上来了，我们追逐的速度也会提上来，剩下的交给时间就好。
回到剧情本身，第一集，因为我只看了第一集，后续记得追我的公众号文章，每周三发布：需要天时地利人和，需要国运当前，老法师爷叔说：今天的太阳，晒不到明天的衣服，时间决定一切。这句话很有哲理。看剧的人，一看而过，但我喜欢研究剧里的成功人物，他们的成功，就是社会的缩影和印证。这句话你品一品，就是成功的核心。时间是最重要的。曾经我和中国打工皇帝唐骏聊过天，他2002年获得中国区微软总裁职位，2008年10亿年薪接任新华都总裁。我当时问他，成功需要哪些要素，他想了十几秒，回答我说：天时地利人和。天时是第一位的。后面是水到渠成的。他所讲的，和繁花剧情里爷叔讲的，是一样的道理。唐骏和我说，人要活得精彩，我很羡慕你，因为你很年轻。年轻就拥有一切可能。还是，时间决定一切。如果我们按照美股的投资回报率20%年化，再谈谈时间的重要性（美国纳斯达克2023年涨幅超过50%）。我们在60岁投入10000，过了一年，资金是12000，如果我们在30岁就投入10000，过了30年，资金是237万。让时间成为我们的朋友，时间为我们创造财富。今天的太阳，晒不到明天的衣服。今天永远不晚，明天充满未知。爷叔问胡歌：什么是生意？胡歌回答：生意是一买一卖，将本求利。爷叔问：你有本金吗？你对现在的形势了解么？你对现在的政策了解么？什么是生意？过去的生意，是一买一卖，现在的生意，已经变的更加多元，更加复杂。越复杂的生意，赚的越多。例如比特币，你需要了解区块链，了解芯片，了解显卡，了解算力。第一批赚到钱的，赚到大钱的，都是做IT的程序员。他们研究的，是复杂的事情，所以他们能赚到钱。简单的生意，例如餐厅，利润小，不复杂，所以上市公司里面做餐厅的就少，几千万家餐厅，可能只有几家上市的。那么，大家想赚大钱，中产想再往上面走一走，富豪想让自己的财富传承下去，应该怎么做？找个时间，来和我聊聊，我们这个证券行业，别的不多，就是见的高净值多，投资移民多。和他们直接认识很难，但是我们是很温柔的，欢迎大家来多聊一聊。最后，我在19年底，说澳洲奶茶不是个好生意了。因为喝奶茶的人，就那么多，如果奶茶店一天的客流量少于400，就亏钱。假设每天喝奶茶的人，是1万人，奶茶店数量大于25家，就会有店铺亏钱。再进入，就不合适。当然，我视频里讲的更详细。
投资和做生意一样，不管你是做什么行业的，都要研究这个行业的龙头，就是上市公司。美国的，澳洲的，中国的，你要把上市的这些公司研究透，才能知道自己的公司，自己的职场，应该往哪个方向发展。如果看好一个行业，但不确定，可以找到这个行业的股票，进去一点。比如宠物市场，Chewy，比如加密货币市场Coinbase，比如英特尔。这些股票的走势，就代表了这个行业中最优秀的企业的发展。简单，轻松。手里有票，观察行业公司，像爷叔讲的，了解政策和市场，看明白了，再行动。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管