市场资讯及洞察
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特朗普的伊朗战争，最终大概率不会以“大获全胜”作为结束标志，而真正决定这场冲突何时收场的，是特朗普还能承受多大的政治、经济与舆论压力。问题在于，伊朗显然比他更能忍痛。也正因如此，特朗普即便选择撤出，也一定会把这一切包装成一场胜利；而伊朗必然会确保外界不会轻易相信这种说法。这正是特朗普如今最深的困境：他可以宣布结束，却未必有能力定义结束。
如果特朗普在动手之前更认真评估过后果，他本可以为今天的局面做更多准备。首先，他原本应该提前补充美国战略石油储备。俄乌战争之后，美国战略石油储备已明显下降，却始终没有得到有效回补。一旦中东战火扩大，油气供应受到冲击，能源价格飙升几乎是必然结果。相比在危机爆发后被动补救，事先做好准备的成本显然低得多。
其次是提前争取海湾阿拉伯国家的支持，至少让这些关键地区盟友在政治和能源层面与美国保持协调。然而问题在于，特朗普自己始终没有清晰、稳定、可执行的战争目标。没有人愿意为一场目标模糊、边界不清、结果难料的战争站台。结果就是，他不仅没有换来坚定支持，反而面对一个日益焦躁、愤怒、充满不安的海湾地区。
第三，他也没有为美国公众做好心理准备。任何一场针对伊朗的冲突，都不可能只是一次轻描淡写的军事打击。它天然带有升级风险，可能拖长，可能外溢，也可能反噬全球能源市场和美国自身经济。可特朗普并没有为美国社会讲清楚这些代价，更没有为一场可能持续更久的对抗建立政治耐受度。于是，当战争真正进入消耗阶段时，他将发现自己并没有足够的国内空间去承受它。
而这恰恰是当前局势最危险的地方。即便伊朗遭受重创，也不意味着它失去了继续施压的能力。它仍然可以威胁海湾航运，恐吓油轮远离关键海域，也依然有能力扰乱地区能源生产。只要霍尔木兹海峡的通行安全无法被彻底保证，全球能源市场就始终处在阴影之下。除非美国愿意付出占领伊朗的代价，否则特朗普根本无法真正消除这种风险。更何况，伊朗的无人机与非对称作战体系本就高度分散，不可能靠几轮空袭就被连根拔起。
同样，特朗普也没有能力决定伊朗未来由谁统治。政权更迭从来不是外部军事打击就能轻易塑造的结果。阿富汗和伊拉克早已证明，美国可以摧毁一套政权机器，却很难按自己的意志重建一个稳定、听话、亲美的新秩序。即便哈梅内伊体系被削弱，继任者也未必更温和，反而很可能更强硬、更封闭、更敌视美国。在这种背景下，特朗普想逼出停火、迫使伊朗让步，甚至幻想所谓“无条件投降”，都显得愈发不现实。
于是，他手里其实只剩下两个高风险选项。
一个是通过突击行动夺取伊朗剩余的高浓缩铀库存。若行动成功，特朗普也许能获得一个勉强体面的退场台阶，并借此宣称自己“摧毁了伊朗核威胁”。对于一个极度在意自己形象、又急于摆脱“临阵退缩”标签的总统来说，这种闪电式战果的诱惑无疑巨大。但问题在于，这种行动的失败成本也极其高昂。历史上，吉米·卡特营救伊朗人质失败，几乎直接埋葬了他的总统生涯。特朗普已经反复高调宣称自己“摧毁了伊朗核计划”，一旦现实打脸，他恐怕承受不起这样的政治后果。
另一个选项是占领或切断伊朗关键石油出口节点，例如哈尔克岛，从源头上打击伊朗财政命脉。这听上去像是一种更具压迫力的战略手段，但实际风险甚至更大。因为这不再是一次短促、有限、可控的打击，而意味着更深程度的军事卷入、更长时间的兵力部署，以及更高概率的地面消耗。这不仅会进一步推高石油危机，也可能把美国直接拖入一场它原本并不想真正承受的长期冲突。从回报来看，这几乎是一次极其鲁莽的豪赌。
现实是，美国国内对这种战争的耐受度，远没有特朗普想象得那么高。今天的美国社会，对海外战争的容忍度早已不复昔日。公众不愿接受长期消耗，更无法容忍不断上升的油价、市场动荡，人员伤亡。也就是说，特朗普最可能的结局，不是彻底取胜，而是在代价迅速上升之后选择退场。
抛开这些问题，伊朗在这次冲突中向世界证明了一件事：真正能够保障自身安全的，不是克制，而是核武器。过去几年，伊朗已经多次遭受以色列与美国主导的军事打击。对于这个政权而言，如果不想在未来几个月或几年内再次陷入同样境地，那么最有说服力的自保逻辑，就是尽快提升核威慑能力。即使外部情报与打击能力再强，也未必能彻底摧毁伊朗的核潜力；相反，这场战争反而会把“拥核求生”的逻辑推得更加牢固。更危险的是，其他国家也会从中得出类似结论：在一个越来越不稳定的世界里，真正能防止外部打击的，也许不是国际规则，而是足够强的威慑能力。
而特朗普最难修复的损失，并不只是油价、战损或地区局势，而是美国信誉的进一步流失。世界会记住的，不只是这场战争本身，更是美国政府在尚有其他选项时，依然主动选择动武的方式。战争本应是穷尽外交、威慑、谈判与制裁之后的最后手段，但特朗普给外界留下的印象，却更像是沉迷于展示“杀伤力”和强硬姿态。这样的选择，也许能制造一时的震慑，却会长期侵蚀美国作为理性领导者的可信度。
所以，特朗普真正面对的，不是一场能否赢下的战争，而是一场他很可能无法体面收场的战争。他可以宣布胜利，却无法保证世界买账；他可以选择撤出，却无法阻止伊朗在未来继续抬高原油价格；他可以暂时压低战火，却无法消除这场冲突在核扩散、能源安全与全球信任层面留下的长期阴影。从这个意义上说，特朗普不是在掌控战争或是向世界证明我依旧是那个老大哥，而是变成了世界动荡开始的催化剂。
US financial services company, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), announced Q4 2023 and full year financial results before the US open on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $12.896 billion for the previous quarter, narrowly beating analyst estimate of $12.773 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of Wall Street expectations at $0.85 vs. $1.074 per share expected.
The company achieved revenue for $54.1 billion in 2023. EPS reached $5.18 per share. Company overview Founded: 1935 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 80,257 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: James P.
Gorman (Executive Chairman), Ted Pick (CEO), Andy Saperstein (Co-President), Dan Simkowitz (Co-President), Sharon Yeshaya (CFO) CEO commentary "In 2023, the Firm reported a solid ROTCE* against a mixed market backdrop and a number of headwinds. We begin 2024 with a clear and consistent business strategy and a unified leadership team. We are focused on achieving our long-term financial goals and continuing to deliver for shareholders," CEO of Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, commented on the results in a statement to shareholders. *Return on tangible equity Stock reaction The stock was down by over 4% after the announcement of the latest results.
Shares were trading at $85.80 a share – the lowest level in over a month. Stock performance 5 day: -7.92% 1 month: -5.13% 3 months: +9.36% Year-to-date: -7.67% 1 year: -6.07% Morgan Stanley stock price targets HSBC: $96 JP Morgan: $94 UBS Group: $95 Bank of America: $100 Barclays: $116 Royal Bank of Canada: $85 Goldman Sachs: $100 Societe Generale: $80 BNP Paribas: $85 Oppenheimer: $103 Evercore: $97 Morgan Stanley is the 88th largest company in the world with a market cap of $141.14 billion. You can trade Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Morgan Stanley, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Since reaching a local bottom in October of last year, XAUUSD has experienced a strong uptrend of over 13%. Closing its third consecutive positive session, Gold is inching closer to its all-time high, now sitting just above $2,050 USD per ounce. From a technical standpoint, Gold is following a well-defined rising channel that has been predominantly respected since November 2023.
As the price approaches the midpoint of this channel, there is a possibility, especially on lower time frames, that this point may act as temporary resistance. This is a crucial level to monitor closely. Image: GOLD Chart The recent positive momentum in XAUUSD is closely tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The enduring conflict between Gaza and Israel, coupled with the initiation of a new US-led conflict in Yemen against the Houthis, has contributed to the precious metal's strength. The current economic landscape in the United States, along with projections for rate cuts in 2024, also is playing a pivotal role in Gold's recent performance. In response to US inflation climbing from nearly 0% to a peak of 9.10% in July 2022, the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times.
The rates have surged from 0.25% to the current 5.50%. Image: CPI and Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Chart Data suggests the possibility of multiple rate cuts in 2024, with some anticipating cuts as early as the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME data, market expectations indicate a projection of six rate cuts for 2024, culminating in an effective rate of approximately 3.50-3.75% by year-end.
Image: CME FedWatch Historically, the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like Gold tends to rise when interest rates decrease, contributing to the recent upward trajectory of Gold prices. Gold traders will be closely monitoring the evolving tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This scrutiny aims to draw insights into the potential timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their subsequent impact on Gold's market dynamics.
A hotter than expected CPI reading out of the UK along with a beat in US retail sales saw global markets turn risk off as rates markets hawkishly re-priced chances of cuts coming from Central Banks. The unwinding of priced in Fed cuts saw a spike in treasury yields and the USD bid, with DXY hitting a high of 103.69 after the December US retail sales report came in hotter than expected. DXY finding resistance at the July-October 50% Fib level before paring gains.
GBP saw decent gains vs the USD and EUR after a beat in the December UK CPI reading where the Y/Y figure came in at 4% vs an expected 3.8%. GBPUSD fell just short of breaching the 1.2700 level, hitting a high of 1.2696 as UK rates markets priced in a lower amount of 2024 rate cuts. JPY was weak throughout the session with losses accelerating after the US retail sales report.
USDJPY taking out the big figure at 148 rising in lockstep the US-JP yield differential. On current momentum the psychological 150 level is possibly coming into play, and with it, BoJ intervention speculation. AUDUSD extended January’s losses on the sour risk sentiment and mixed Chinese figures on Wednesday.
The Aussie holding below 0.6600 and dropping to Decembers lows at 0.6520 before finding some support. AUD traders have todays key December employment report to look forward to, after a bumper November reading this one will be watched closely.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) announced Q4 2023 financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Friday. The US bank reported revenue that fell short of estimates of $23.5 billion vs. $23.703 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported well below analyst expectations at $0.35 per share vs. $0.533 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1998 (via the merger of BankAmerica & NationsBank), 1956 (as BankAmerica), 1784 (as its predecessor, the Massachusetts Bank, through the merger with FleetBoston in 1999) Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 217,000 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Brian Moynihan (Chairman and CEO), Anne Finucane (Co-Vice chairman), Bruce Thompson (Co-Vice chairman) CEO commentary "We reported solid fourth quarter and full-year results as all our businesses achieved strong organic growth, with record client activity and digital engagement. This activity led to good loan demand and growth in deposits in the quarter and full-year net income of $26.5 billion. Our expense discipline allowed us to continue investing in growth initiatives.
Strong capital and liquidity levels position us well to continue to deliver responsible growth in 2024," CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan said in a press release. Stock reaction The stock was down by just over 1% on Friday at $32.77 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -5.68% 1 month: -3.35% 3 months: +21.36% Year-to-date: -3.55% 1 year: -7.82% Bank of America stock price targets Barclays: $43 Odean Capital Group: $37.94 Goldman Sachs: $33 Oppenheimer: $51 BMO Capital Markets: $40 Jefferies Financial Group: $28 Evercore ISI: $33 Morgan Stanley: $32 Piper Sandler: $27.50 Royal Bank of Canada: $35 HSBC: $35 Wells Fargo: $40 Citigroup: $33 UBS Group: $36 JP Morgan: $34 Bank of America Corp. is the 39th largest company in the world with a market cap of $256.76 billion.
You can trade Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays. Please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Bank of America Corp., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, MarketBeat
热门话题
周三，澳大利亚股市飙升至历史新高，ASX 200 指数当日收盘上涨 1.1%，达到 7680.7 点，比2021 年 8 月创下的上一收盘纪录 7628.9 高出 51.8 点。盘中新高一度触及7682.3。
而澳元对美元不到2小时内暴跌0.6%，累计跌39.4个基点，最低0.65592。
澳洲物价超预期放缓促使澳元短线下跌的主要原因是澳洲通胀超预期放缓至近两年低点4.1%。其实通胀这个话题我们已经聊了2023年一整年了。大家知道澳联储多次的加息就是为了打压物价，抵抗通货膨胀。所以目前的通胀数据超预期放缓对于大家来说应该是个好消息。这代表澳联储今年不仅没有加息的空间，很可能还会开始降息。这对于有房贷压力，以及2023年生活成本增加的大家来说绝对是比较振奋人心的。澳洲下半年可能降息目前市场认为澳联储今年不太可能进一步加息，但是第一次降息也不会太早发生，因为现在通胀下降的速度是达标了，但是澳联储定下的通胀区间是2-3%，目前4.1%的物价水平还是略高了一些。降息可能至少在今年下半年9月份之后开始，到2024年底前，可以期待一下会有两次降息。
GO Markets投资机会解析在2024年降息的大背景下，首先利好的就是股票市场，投资者可以交易我们今天提到的澳股指数，也可以优先关注对利率敏感的公用事业和房地产板块。当然，我们也可以选择交易澳元货币对，目前影响澳元的因素除了今天我们提到 的澳洲不加息，还需要考虑到美国以及中国的经济政策情况。但是可以明确的是，澳元将在区间内运行，因此多空双方都有投资机会。这里可以优先关注澳美及澳日货币对。
US financial services giant, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), reported the latest financial results for Q4 2023 before the market open in the US on Friday. JP Morgan reported revenue of $38.574 billion for the quarter, falling short of Wall Street estimate of $39.73 billion. Revenue was up by 11.65% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.04 per share for Q4 (down by 14.84% vs. Q4 2022), also below analyst estimate of $3.349 per share. Company overview Founded: 2000 Headquarters: New York City, United States Number of employees: 308,669 (2023) Industry: Financial services Key people: Jamie Dimon (Chairman & CEO), Daniel E.
Pinto (President & COO) CEO commentary "We ended the year with a solid quarter, producing net income of $9.3 billion, or $12.1 billion excluding the FDIC special assessment and discretionary securities losses. Our record results in 2023 reflect over-earning on both NII and credit, but we remain confident in our ability to continue to deliver very healthy returns even after they normalize. Our balance sheet remained extremely strong, with a CET1 ratio of 15.0%, a staggering $514 billion of total loss-absorbing capacity and $1.4 trillion in cash and marketable securities.
We continue to believe that the recent series of regulatory and legislative proposals, including Basel III endgame, could cause serious harm to consumers, businesses, and markets. We hope that regulators will make the necessary adjustments so the rules promote a strong financial system without causing undue consequences for end users," CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon commented on the latest results. Dimon also made comments on the state of the US economy and global challenges: "The U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and markets currently expect a soft landing.
It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also an ongoing need for increased spending due to the green economy, the restructuring of global supply chains, higher military spending and rising healthcare costs. This may lead inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than markets expect.
On top of this, there are a number of downside risks to watch. Quantitative tightening is draining over $900 billion of liquidity from the system annually, and we have never seen a full cycle of tightening. And the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have the potential to disrupt energy and food markets, migration, and military and economic relationships, in addition to their dreadful human cost.
These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious. While we hope for the best, the past year demonstrated why we must be prepared for any environment." Stock reaction The stock ended Friday down by 0.73% at $169.05 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -1.87% 1 month: +2.31% 3 months: +14.22% Year-to-date: -0.62% 1 year: +18.21% JP Morgan Chase & Co. stock price targets Deutsche Bank: $190 Bank of America: $188 Barclays: $212 Oppenheimer: $243 Morgan Stanley: $191 Piper Sandler: $170 BMO Capital Markets: $171 Jefferies Financial Group: $169 Evercore ISI: $167 Royal Bank of Canada: $158 HSBC: $159 Credit Suisse: $170 JP Morgan Chase & Co. is the 13th largest company in the world with a market cap of $488.72 billion.
You can trade JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: JP Morgan Chase & Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap