市场资讯及洞察

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2024年美国大选分为五个阶段：各州党内初选（1月-6月）、两党候选人正式提名（7月-8月）、总统辩论（9月-10月）、选民投票（11月-12月）、新任总统就职（2025年1月）。最新的美国民调显示，共和党暂时领先民主党，特朗普支持率47%领先拜登的44%，18-30岁的选民更喜欢特朗普，并且目前七大关键摇摆州均偏向特朗普。今年美国大选特朗普胜率很高，一些特朗普概念股连续上涨，部分股票例如Digital World Acquisition Corp股价在最近一周时间已经从17涨到37美金，超过翻倍。除此之外，受到影响的美国股票还包括，能源和矿业公司：由于特朗普政府对化石燃料的支持和环保法规的放松，石油、天然气和煤炭公司可能受益。国防和军工企业：鉴于特朗普政府增加国防开支的倾向，国防承包商和军工企业可能表现良好。金融服务公司：特朗普政府放松金融监管，可能对银行和其他金融机构有利。制造业和重工业：特朗普承诺振兴美国制造业，特别是钢铁和汽车行业，可能使这些行业的公司受益。建筑和基础设施：特朗普提出的基础设施建设计划可能使相关建筑和工程公司受益。技术公司：特朗普政府对中国技术公司采取的措施可能影响与中国市场有重大业务往来的美国技术公司。医药和生物科技公司：特朗普政府对药品价格和医疗保健政策的态度可能影响这一行业，中长期看医药公司股价会受到压制。贸易敏感股票：受特朗普贸易政策影响较大的公司，特别是在美中贸易战中受影响的公司。包括一些物流公司、包装类公司股价可能会受到冲击。

若特朗普当选，对外重启惩罚性关税的概率很大。特朗普在竞选活动中表示将对墨西哥、加拿大等国采取新的惩罚性关税措施，甚至可能进一步考虑对美国所有进口商品（总计价值约3.9万亿美元）征收10%的“普遍基准关税”。同时，收紧国际援助，对内推动减税、继续建边境墙，限制新增移民。特朗普当下参与总统选举，是美国历史上一个非常传奇的事情。特朗普本人目前官司缠身，在诽谤案件中背叛赔偿8330万美金给被特朗普诬陷为骗子的受害女性。税务上依旧处于被调查的状态，但那位窃取并泄露特朗普纳税记录的男子也受到了处罚，被判五年监禁。对于这样的一位缺点非常明显总统，在意识形态出现严重分裂的美国受到了欢迎，意味着美国国内的经济政策，外交政策等方面亟需变革。美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的任期（2017年至2021年）期间，确实产生了很多对美国居民友好的政绩，涵盖了多个方面。经济上做得贡献很多：实施了大规模的税收改革，降低了公司和个人税率。在任期初期，美国经济快速增长，失业率下降，股市上涨。推动贸易政策重构，包括重新谈判北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA），形成了美墨加协定（USMCA）。外交方面：采取强硬的对华政策，包括对中国商品征收关税，引发美中贸易战，重新确立美国全球的经济地位。促进以色列与若干阿拉伯国家之间的关系正常化（亚伯拉罕协议）。与朝鲜领导人金正恩进行历史性会晤，尽管未能实现具体的无核化协议。移民政策：实施严格的移民政策，包括建造美墨边境墙，遏制偷渡行为。废除了奥巴马时期的“追梦人”计划（DACA），虽后来被法院阻止。在环境政策上，退出了巴黎气候协议，并放宽了一些环保法规。若重新当选，可能会鼓励石油开采，将石油价格打压至更低的水平。

总的来说，特朗普竞选美国总统成功，中美可能重启贸易战。石油价格大概率会下跌，特朗普提到希望将石油价格控制在20美金以内，并无视环保主义。其次，俄乌战争可能很快结束，避险资产价格回落。最重要的是，特朗普将中国视为最大竞争对手，并希望增加美国就业，支持美国制造，提升美国的全球影响力。特朗普据说已经在商讨对中国征收60%的关税，取消中国最惠国待遇。同时，可能会扩大到对所有产品征收关税。恒生指数和中概股在这种背景下会继续疲软，不建议大家抄底。但对于澳币可能长期利好，对于美股也有政策上的支撑。免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

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关心新闻的朋友们应该知道，在巴以打了3个月还没有结束之后，现在阿拉伯阵营里的另一个伊朗支持的民兵组织也门的胡塞武装也开始通过攻击过往红海的商船来给世界施加压力，以要求以色列退兵。而这原本声称只攻击以色列的商场，在短短2周之后，现在已经蔓延到了几乎攻击所有过往的商船，不再局限于国籍和宗教。美英虽然已经派出军舰护航并且也轰炸了胡塞武装的基地，但是毫无疑问，现在胡塞武装使用的不对称策略：用500美元的无人机带着炮弹，去袭击美国或其他国家的商船，而美英如果使用防空导弹，一枚大约就是500万美元。这打了心疼钱，不打呢，如果被落后的民兵武装用500美元的无人机打到美英战舰，那脸上也很难看。

大家不要以为这只是八卦新闻，看看就完事了。我们要知道，连接欧亚之间最重要的海上航线就是从埃及苏伊士运河，途经红海，印度洋，再到中国日本和亚洲的这条线。这条线不但有大量的石油船只，还有从欧洲来的汽车，工业品，奢侈品包包，以及从亚洲过去的纺织品，小商品，以及日本的精密仪器。而如今没有商船敢走苏伊士，红海这条路之后，先别说埃及可能会经济崩溃，原本每天收的过路费没了，所有船只不得不从非洲，绕大半个地球，从南非好望角绕去新加坡，然后去中国和日本。这一来一去时间和费用都大幅增加。

可能各位说，费用增加就增加吧，也没办法啊。如果这放在2，3年前也就算了。但是这如今美国和全球都在努力的控制国内的物价。而这工业品和原材料价格一旦在时间和成本上大幅增加，就会再次面临当年苏伊士运河被卡住一样的连锁反应：整个世界的供应链出现停顿或延迟，从电子芯片，到汽车，从笔记本电脑到手机都会出现价格上涨和出货慢。而对于澳洲这个几乎没有制造业的国家来说，除了农业和工业原材料以外都要靠进口。这红海航道一堵，毫无疑问就意味着澳洲进口产品的成本价格将会上涨。我们知道在计算通胀指数时几个最重要的数据分别来自于：租房成本，建房成本，交通成本，蔬菜瓜果，家用电器，以及娱乐餐饮。如果说澳洲政府自己可以通过控制海外学生和移民数量来间接的控制长期租房成本，那建房所需要的大部分材料目前都需要来自海外，而交通成本里的主要开支汽油和柴油价格澳洲也无法控制，除非放弃燃油税，这个目前看很难。家用电器更加无法控制，唯一的餐饮娱乐里还因为再次增加酒精税而备受民众指责。

所以在计算通货膨胀的主要指标里，红海航线可以影响到的占据了大部分。换句话说，这红海航线每多一天无法通行，就会对澳洲的物价压力增加一分。也意味着澳洲原本的降息时间会推迟一分。而同样受到红海航线影响的欧美国家，也会因为潜在的推迟降息时间而使得其国内股市承受下跌压力。所以，红海危机并不是远在千里之外的八卦新闻。这个危机一天不结束，我们生活在澳洲的朋友们的生活压力就迟一天缓和。当然了，澳洲的股市主要受到来自美国的影响。而美国的股市，则主要取决于一点：2024年，美国是硬着陆，还是软着陆。如果是前者，那就意味着可能经济衰退的时间和程度会比较严重，那股市受到影响的时间也会更久。而如果是后者，则将会意味着美国的经济可能会仅仅经历一个小幅度，短时间的回调和下跌，之后马上会恢复。但是不论是哪一种，我本人都觉得2024年我们投资者都会有一次可以逢低入场的机会。要不然，如果天天涨，你敢追吗？免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) released first quarter of fiscal 2024 financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Thursday. The American healthcare, pharmacy, and retail company reported revenue of $36.707 billion for the quarter, which topped analyst estimate of $34.949 billion. Revenue was up by 10% from the same period a year prior.

Earnings per share reported at $0.66 (down by 43.1% year-over-year) vs. $0.616 per share expected. Walgreens cut its dividend by 48% from the previous quarter to $0.25 per share. Company overview Founded: 31/12/2014 Headquarters: Deerfield, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 331,000 (2023) Industry: Retail, pharmaceuticals Key people: Stefano Pessina (Executive Chairman), Tim Wentworth (CEO) CEO commentary Tim Wentworth commented on the latest results: "WBA delivered fiscal first quarter results in line with overall expectations, reflecting disciplined execution in a challenging consumer backdrop.

We are evaluating all strategic options to drive sustainable long-term shareholder value, focusing on swift actions to right-size costs and increase cash flow, with a balanced approach to capital allocation priorities. Today we are announcing a 48 percent reduction in our quarterly dividend payment, while maintaining a competitive yield. We are proud to be a trusted and independent partner of choice, delivering healthcare to millions of people.

And, we will leverage our local, convenient presence to engage with patients and help payors, providers, and pharma companies also achieve better health outcomes at an affordable cost." Stock reaction The stock was down by over 6% on Thursday after the latest results, trading at $23.84 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/2023. Stock performance 1 month: +19.60% 3 months: +14.72% Year-to-date: -2.07% 1 year: -31.80% Walgreens Boots Alliance stock price targets Barclays: $21 HSBC: $27 JP Morgan: $30 Royal Bank of Canada: $26 Evercore ISI: $21 Truist Financial: $25 Mizuho: $25 Deutsche Bank: $27 Credit Suisse: $30 Morgan Stanley: $27 UBS Group: $35 Loop Capital Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.is the 882nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $22.04 billion. You can trade Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays; please see specifications section on platform for further details.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Global markets enter the second week of the new year in cooldown mode with risk assets taking a hit after the red-hot finish to 2023. The NASDAQ having its worst start to a year since 1999, dropping almost 4% on the week, risk sensitive currencies AUD and NZD following not far behind. FX traders have a slew of CPI reports in the coming week to look forward to, with inflation readings out of Switzerland, Australia, China and the US that have the potential to get FX markets moving.

Charts to Watch Gold – XAUUSD Gold faltered last week as higher yields and a US dollar on tear weighed on the precious metal. Attempts by the bulls to push through and hold the key 2070 level were rebuffed and saw XAUUSD drop to a low of 2025 in Fridays NFP inspired volatile session. This weeks US CPI figure will be a big test of the markets pricing of Fed rate cuts, hotter than expected and gold could take another leg down with that 2070 resistance level capping the upside.

Cooler than expected could see the bulls make another attempt to breach and hold that level as support. AUDUSD AUDUSD didn’t have a great week either, having its biggest weekly drop since November. Decembers surge higher in this pair did look like to far too fast when looking at the AU and US rate differential, AUDUSD also hit a zone of resistance between 0.68 – 0.69 where sellers managed to turn the pair around.

This week’s Aussie, Chinese and US CPI readings all set to causing some volatility in the pair. Key level to watch to the upside is the resistance starting at 0.6800, to the downside the big figure at 0.6700 has lent some short-term support to this pair. US Dollar Index - DXY The US dollar has had a resurgence to start 2024 with DXY pushing through key levels 101 and 102 with ease.

Resistance at 102.57, where upside faltered in December and August ’23, has come into play and a couple of attempts to breach were rejected last week. This level also lines up with the 61.8% Fib level measured from the July lows to October highs and will be the key level to watch coming into the US CPI reading. Full calendar of the week’s economic announcements at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/

Award-winning online broker, GO Markets Pty Ltd (GO Markets), is making it easier to trade the ASX with a new and improved platform launched this week; Shares by GO Markets. With a streamlined application process and an enticing launch offer, Shares by GO Markets offers an enhanced trading experience for Aussie traders. Features of Shares by GO Markets: Available as a web trading platform and a mobile app.

Integrated charts by TradingView; a powerful technical analysis tool for beginners through to experienced investors. Realtime funding; once your funds clear within your Macquarie CMA, you'll be able to trade straight away. Modern interface for intuitive trading on the GO and at home.

Secure App login using biometric security i.g. Face ID or Fingerprint. Easy Portfolio Management; keep track of the status of your holdings anywhere and anytime.

Informative reports and insights; get detailed reports and insight into your financial decisions. Click to Refresh price data (Free). Live streaming data available ($27.50 incl GST per month).

This cost is a pass through cost from the ASX. After market hours order placement. Head of Trading & Operations in Equities, Gheric Gamboa expressed enthusiasm about the new platform, stating that "it marks a significant leap forward in providing our users with advanced trading tools, real-time analytics, and an intuitive interface".

The platform has been built in partnership with Novus Fintech. Viet Hoang, CEO of Novus Fintech, expressed his appreciation for the collaborative effort with GO Markets Securities Pty Ltd (GO Markets Securities). "The combined efforts have resulted in a cutting-edge trading platform catering to everyone from beginners to the more advanced traders." New clients to GO Markets Securities will receive their first 15 trades with ZERO brokerage fees. Trades will then carry a low, flat-rate brokerage fee of $7.70 thereafter.

GO Markets Securities Pty Ltd (ABN 24 653 400 527) is a Corporate Authorised Representative of GO Markets Pty Ltd (ABN 85 081 864 039 | AFSL 254963).

The new trading year kicked off with a dip in equities with Big Tech leading losses in Tuesday’s session, AAPL being the big loser after a downgrade from Barclays citing concern in iPhone demand. Yields and the USD ripped higher, the US Dollar Index having its biggest daily gain since March 2023. Crude oil capped off an interesting session with a pump and dump rollercoaster ride.

Charts To Watch: Apple - AAPL Apple stock fell 3.6% during Tuesdays New York session, it’s worst day since August. The dump came after Barclays downgraded the iPhone maker and lowered its price target on concerns of slowing iPhone sales, particularly in China. This saw the stock price gap down, erasing all of December’s gains and hitting a low of 183.89 before finding some bids and rebounding modestly.

US Dollar Index – DXY DXY surged on the first trading day of 2024, having its biggest up day since March 2023, there was little in the way of newsflow behind the move but more a result of a jump in yields and some oversold technicals that were amplified by a low volume session. DXY retaking the 200-day SMA and 102 handle, hitting a high of 102.22, the next test to the upside being the resistance around 102.57. Crude Oil – USOUSD The most interesting move today was in Crude Oil, initially surging in the APAC session amid growing Middle East tensions, only to dump at the start of the US session with no obvious catalyst.

Some souring of risk sentiment and a stronger USD seemingly the only drivers. USOUSD finishing the session just above 70 USD a barrel, with the major support at 67 the next level to watch to the downside.