市场资讯及洞察

WTI Crude oil got off to a flyer on Monday open as news broke of conflict in the Middle East saw a hefty risk premium being priced in fueled by fears of supply disruptions. It seems some of those fears have abated and along with a massive crude inventory build of almost 13mm barrels reported by API on Wednesday, a classic gap fill chart pattern has formed on USOUSD after a steep drop, with USOUSD currently trading at 83.37, down markedly from the conflict spike high of 87.65 in Monday’s session. Geopolitical risk will be very much at the forefront of Oil traders’ minds with an escalation and/or expansion of the current conflict very much having the ability to cause high volatility in oil, we do also have some important technical levels and scheduled economic announcements to watch for the remainder of the week’s trading.

Chart Technicals: Monday’s gap open found resistance at the upward trend line, which up until early October has been a significant support level, to the upside this will be the next technical level to watch, around the 87.225 zone, a retake of this trendline support could then see USOUSD next testing the 23.6 fib level at 88.958 which had also offered support during September. To the downside Fridays low and the nearby 50% fib level at 81.333 will be the first major technical level, a break of this support zone will indicate a possible leg down to the 61.8 fib level around 76.867, which was also a swing low support level back in August. Along with further updates from the Middle East, tonight’s US CPI figure will also be important to watch, a low reading will cheer market participants that are banking on a less aggressive Federal Reserve, this will likely see risk assets rally, and Oil along with them as a less aggressive Fed will take the shackles off the US economy and have oil repricing for a more robust demand.

Global markets head into the new week with one eye on ongoing geopolitical pressures and one eye on US data and comments from Federal Reserve members as we come into the last week before the blackout period ahead of the November 2 FOMC meeting. Along with the geopolitical backdrop there is some key scheduled data this week the traders will be watching with keen interest. These are the markets I’ll be watching especially closely this week.

AUDUSD The Aussie had a tough week as risk sentiment soured somewhat in global markets, and an announcement of Chinese stimulus disappointing the market in its scope. AUDUSD did find good support at the November ’22 lows of 0.6280, a level which has now become key for AUDUSD bulls, a break here has a chart with fresh air until the major 0.62 support level. Aussie watchers this week have a talk by new RBA Governor Bullock and Australian Employment data to look forward to, along with some important data from the US including retail sales and unemployment claims.

Market sentiment will also play a part in the performance of the risk sensitive AUD. Gold Gold benefitted from its safe haven status, strongly rallying all of last week with XAUUSD finishing up around 5% for the week. There was a monster push higher on Friday, with a similar move in the Oil market as traders rushed to exit shorts before the weekend in both markets.

XAUUSD pushed up to its 50% Fib resistance level at 1940 on Friday, today in the APAC session we have seen a modest pullback as presumably some safe haven traders are unwinding longs. Key levels to watch this week will be the 1940 level to the upside, a break and hold here would point to a technical leg higher, to the downside, the 1905 Fib, mid-September lows and upper trend channel support level all pretty much line up and will be an important area of support if XAUUSD is to hold last week’s gains. Oil WTI Crude oil had a choppy and volatile week, pushed and pulled around by conflict in the Middle East and oil storage data.

A gap open higher on Monday retraced during the week until, like Gold, a monster move higher on Friday with no-one wanting to be short going into the weekend and the unknowns of the continued conflict. After recently breaking the medium term trendline that had been in play since July. USOUSD has found this level now become resistance at around the 88.10 USD a barrel level and is shaping to be a key level to the upside.

To the downside the gap fill support level at 83.20 will the support level to watch. Beyond the charts geopolitical events will also play a significant role in Oil price movements this week.

Bitcoin displayed strong momentum yesterday, with a notable increase of over 10% and approaching a 15% gain within the day. Price surged and has breached the previous resistance level at 31,000. This level has historically acted as a significant barrier, causing the price to retreat to around 25,000 after multiple attempts to surpass it.

However, the market's future movements are uncertain due to upcoming events such as the release of unemployment claims reports and a scheduled speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this week. These events are expected to introduce volatility, potentially leading to significant market fluctuations. Since price has surpassed the 31,000 range we will wait and see if it does undergo a support test, the next significant resistance level to watch out for is at 40,000.

Conversely, there is a possibility that the price could face rejection at 31,000, leading to a decline back to the 25,000 support. It's crucial to acknowledge that in the unpredictable realm of financial markets, no movement is guaranteed. This unpredictability underscores the importance of effective risk management strategies.

You may be asking but what’s the sudden surge? What's driving the sudden surge in BTC's value, breaking the market's prolonged stagnation since the collapse of Terra in May and the subsequent crash of the crypto empire FTX? One potential catalyst for this uptrend could be the optimistic market sentiment revolving around the possible approval of spot Bitcoin ETF applications by the U.S.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The promoters of Spot Bitcoin ETF tout it as a game-changer, poised to inject a significant influx of funds into the crypto market. Additionally, it aims to facilitate mainstream adoption and provide easier access for purchasing BTC, thereby broadening the pool of crypto investors.

BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF, known as the iShares Bitcoin Trust, recently made an appearance on a list maintained by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC). According to Nasdaq, DTCC offers post-trade clearance, settlement, information services, and custody. Despite awaiting approval from the U.S. financial regulator, the DTCC has already listed the BlackRock fund under the ticker IBTC.

Finance lawyer Scott Johnsson shared these developments, highlighting that BlackRock has "secured a CUSIP in preparation for a launch" and suggesting that they might be considering seeding it with cash this month, an earlier timeline than anticipated. What is seeding you may ask? Before the launch of an ETF, an initial investment, commonly referred to as "seed capital," is essential.

This pioneering investor typically contributes around $2.5 million, giving this capital to the ETF issuer in exchange for an equivalent value in ETF shares. This process, known as "seeding the ETF," is fundamental for the ETF's inception. Market makers play a crucial role in providing this seed capital to ETF issuers.

By participating in this initial investment, market makers are accorded special privileges. They earn the title of "lead market maker" for that specific security, entitling them to specific benefits such as cash rebates and payments. These privileges are granted in return for the market maker's commitment to maintaining a tightly regulated quoting level for the security in question.

Managing risk is paramount, especially during periods of high market volatility driven by news and reports. Traders should implement a robust risk management plan to safeguard their investments and navigate the market uncertainties successfully. Staying vigilant, being informed about market news, and having a well-thought-out risk management strategy are essential elements for traders aiming to thrive in such dynamic market conditions.

Bitcoin traders had some excitement in the session overnight, with some false news sending price rising over 7% in a few minutes. A tweet from a well-known crypto news website, Cointelegraph, stated that the SEC had approved a Bitcoin Spot ETF from BlackRock. Markets temporarily rallied off the back of this news, until it was quickly squashed by BlackRock who confirmed it was false and their Spot ETF was still under review from the SEC.

Price quickly cleared all the gains, however, BTC is still trading up over 4% for the daily session. Technically, BTC is still trending in the right direction, with price reclaiming a diagonal trendline that was broken a few days ago. Currently sitting at the midpoint of a large range that has been holding firm since March.

If the momentum continues, we could see price moving up towards the next major resistance level around 30k USD. On the bearish side, there appears to be a large Head & Shoulders pattern forming. If we see the price continue to rise and then start falling away before taking out the July highs, there could be a good case for the Head & Shoulders pattern to play out.

Whatever way we see the price move in the following weeks, we could be in for some volatility as the markets appear to be reacting heavily to news events. With a number of US Fed officials speaking this week, we could see some further volatility as the markets try and predict what is in store for the US economy.

热门话题澳大利亚经济近期的关键数据进一步揭示了通货膨胀压力的复杂动态。根据最新公布的澳大利亚统计局（ABS）数据，截至 2023 年 10 月，消费者价格指数（CPI）在过去 12 个月内上涨了4.9%。这一数字虽然略低于市场普遍预期的 5.2%，却仍然反映了通货膨胀在澳大利亚经济中的持续存在。

澳大利亚央行在 12 月 5 日的年度最后一次董事会会议上维持现金利率的决定备受关注。尽管 CPI 的增速略低于预期，但央行董事会需要审慎权衡通胀风险和经济复苏的平衡。这一决定将深刻影响货币政策的走向，进一步引导市场对于未来经济走势的预期。澳洲联储行长：紧缩政策应“谨慎一点”澳大利亚联邦储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克周二发表讲话，对进一步紧缩货币政策提出“谨慎一点”的建议。这一表态引发市场对于下周加息可能性的担忧，市场预期下周加息的概率降至仅 10%。布洛克行长在讲话中指出，当前需要谨慎平衡通胀风险和经济复苏需求，突显了央行在全球不确定环境下的谨慎态度。投资者将密切关注市场反应，特别是货币市场和股市的波动。

澳元前景展望：美元疲软提振汇率自11月初以来，由于美元疲软，澳元按贸易加权计算已经上涨了2.2%。这在一定程度上受到了美联储结束加息预期的影响，将澳元汇率从 US63.2 美分推升至 US66.6 美分。如果这一趋势持续，可能对进口成本形成下行压力。尽管最新的CPI数据略优于预期，但这似乎对澳元的影响有限，分钟图来看该消息对澳元汇率波动影响有限，澳元未来可能延续盘整的走势。值得关注的是，澳联储对抗通胀的决心将限制澳元的下行空间。至于上行空间，需密切留意美元的强弱表现，鉴于当前美元的疲软态势，建议保持关注。

澳大利亚10月CPI数据解读澳大利亚最新公布的10月CPI数据显示，在剔除波动性项目（汽车燃料、水果、蔬菜和假日旅行）后，潜在的价格压力有所缓解。10月份的年涨幅为5.1%，较9月份的5.5%略有下降。

具体来看，10月份年度增长的主要贡献者包括住房（+6.1%）、食品和非酒精饮料（+5.3%）以及交通（+5.9%）。住房年增长率为6.1%，较9月份的7.2%略有降低。新住宅价格上涨4.7%，为自2021年8月以来的最低年度涨幅，建筑材料价格上涨的速度也因供应状况改善而减缓。租金价格在截至10月的12个月内上涨了6.6%，较9月份的7.6%略有减缓。这主要是因为自2023年9月20日起生效的联邦租金援助增加，否则租金将上涨8.3%。同时，由于全球油价上涨，10月份汽车燃料价格较去年同期上涨了8.6%，较9月份的19.7%略有下降。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师

热门话题巴菲特说过，他一生中，遇见过很多的人，从来没有遇到过像查理芒格这样优秀的人。如果没有查理的灵感、智慧和参与，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不可能发展到现在的地位。根据福布斯的数据，截至11月28日，芒格的身家为26亿美元。芒格出生于1924年1月1日，他年轻的时候对投资产生了浓厚的兴趣。他与沃伦·巴菲特相识，两人志同道合，开始共同投资，并于1965年创建了伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司。我们看到这里会发现，投资公司是他41岁的时候才创立的，所以，在金融领域的成功，往往要依赖于时间价值。

芒格的投资原则已经成为公理，著名的言论包括：“复利是世界第八大奇迹。”“永远不要投资你无法理解的企业。”“赚大钱的不是买卖，而是等待。”“没有必要做非凡的事情来获得非凡的结果。”“知道你不知道的事情比聪明更有用。”在查理芒格的帮助下，巴菲特才开始拓展保险、铁路、消费品的版图。因为在芒格看来，那些小而精的公司并不是他们的投资标的，那些做不大。他要的，是像Costo一样，像可口可乐一样，可以在全世界任何国家和地区，做生意的公司。可以把生意做给每一个人的公司。芒格推动了对可乐可乐的10亿美元投资。

Costo股价我们总是会以巴菲特举例，价值投资，但是我们看到，芒格自 1997 年起担任好市多 (Costco) 董事，并一直坚定地表达他对该品牌的热爱。芒格个人拥有 Costco 167,615 股，并在他的慈善基金会阿尔弗雷德·芒格基金会(Alfred C. Munger Foundation) 中持有另外 19,565 股。我们看到上图Costo的股价走势，基本没有回调，一路向上，股价几乎涨了百倍。还没有算分红和其他方式的收益。截至周二收盘，他所持公司股份的总价值超过 1.11 亿美元。芒格 17 岁时进入密歇根大学，计划学习数学，1942 年，在他大二的时候，他加入了陆军航空队，很快就成为了空军。他被派往加州理工学院学习气象学，芒格在 1946 年退伍前申请了哈佛法学院。1948年，他是 335 名学生中 12 名以优异成绩毕业的人之一。他和巴菲特对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资始于 1962 年，当时该公司在马萨诸塞州的纺织厂生产男士西装衬。巴菲特于 1965 年取得了控股权。尽管工厂关闭了，但伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍然作为巴菲特不断壮大的企业集团的企业工具而继续存在。至今，公司股价上涨了数百倍。

在2008-2009年金融危机的时候，他将公司的资金投入到富国银行等暂时遭受重创的股票，并在市场恢复的时候获利颇丰。芒格在投资中国方面比巴菲特更加乐观。例如，在芒格开始购买中国汽车制造商比亚迪公司股票数年后，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司才开始进入，成为该公司的最大股东。查理芒格是一名有天赋的投资实践家。他的投资智慧汇集成一系列原则，构成了完整的投资蓝图。我的成功不是靠智慧，而是源自我的长期专注，芒格自己对自己的评价。对于我们普通投资者来说，查理芒格是一个很好的导师，他从0到亿万富豪，从40多岁开始投资，无不在告诉我们，一切皆有可能，只要我们学会了类似的投资哲学。大家如果感兴趣，可以多购买查理芒格的书籍和自传，相信会受益颇丰。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管