市场资讯及洞察

USD saw weakness in Wednesday’s session with a risk on equity market and only a marginal move higher in yields weighing on the Greenback ahead of today’s key US CPI report. There was little in the way of major US data releases but some hawkish leaning comments late in the session from the Fed’s Williams stemmed losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY) did make another attempt to breach the 102.57 resistance, but for the 5 th time this year was again rejected, this will be a key level to watch over todays CPI report.

EUR moved higher with EURUSD heading into the APAC session at highs of around 1.0970. EUR was supported by comments from the ECB's De Guindos who warned the rapid pace of disinflation seen in 2023 is likely to slow down in 2024 and Schnabel who said it is too early to discuss rate cuts. JPY was the G10 underperformer after Japanese wage data came in much softer than expected, throwing cold water on expectations of the BOJ normalizing rates.

USDJPY following the US10Y-JP10Y rate differential higher and breaching the psychological 145 level. GBP also saw gains vs USD, taking advantage of a weaker USD and a risk-on session in equities. BoE Governor Bailey spoke in the UK session, pushing back on rate cut expectations while stressing the importance of returning inflation to target.

Ahead today the much-awaited US CPI report which will shape market expectations of the Feds next move and should get FX markets moving.

US producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits, Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ), announced Q3 fiscal 2024 financial results before the market opened in the US on Friday. The company reported revenue of $2.471 billion for the quarter, which fell short of $2.538 billion expected. Earnings per share topped analyst estimates at $3.19 per share vs. estimate of $3.014 per share.

Company overview Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Victor, New York, United States Number of employees: 10,700 (2023) Industry: Beverages Key people: Rob Sands (Chairman), Richard Sands (Vice Chairman), Bill Newlands (CEO), Garth Hankinson (CFO) CFO commentary "The continued strong performance of our Beer portfolio in Q3 has given us the confidence to raise our full-year operating income outlook for that Business. In addition, we now expect higher enterprise operating cash flow and free cash flow in Fiscal 2024. We remain committed to our disciplined and balanced approach to deploying that cash with a consistent focus on supporting our investment grade balance sheet, steady cash returns to shareholders through our dividend, opportunistic share repurchases, brewing capacity investments in our Beer Business, and tuck-in M&A to fill portfolio gaps," Garth Hankinson, CFO of Constellation Brands, commented on the latest results.

Stock reactions Shares of Constellation Brands were up by just over 2% after posting the latest results on Friday, trading at $247.53 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +5.58% 3 months: +4.62% Year-to-date: +2.39% 1 year: +15.54% Constellation Brands stock price targets JP Morgan: $301 Jefferies Financial Group: $292 Truist Financial: $260 Barclays: $280 HSBC: $290 Wedbush: $300 Wells Fargo: $285 Goldman Sachs: $305 Deutsche Bank: $243 Royal Bank of Canada: $295 TD Cowen: $300 Morgan Stanley: $305 Constellation Brands Inc. is the 387th largest company in the world with a market cap of $45.46 billion. You can trade Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays; please see specifications section on platform for further details.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Constellation Brands Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Since the start of 2024, the AUDUSD has reversed from the resistance area of 0.6870, a high formed in June and July 2023. The main factor leading to the AUDUSD trading lower is primarily due to the recovery in strength of the DXY. The AUDUSD currently trades along the support area and round number level of 0.67.

On Wednesday this week, the Australian CPI y/y data is expected to be released at 4.5%. While this is still above the RBA’s inflation target level of 2-3%, evidence of a sustained slowdown in inflation from the previous release of 4.9% is likely to signal some comfort to the overall rate path for the RBA. The RBA decided to keep rates on hold at 4.35% during the December meeting, a decision which saw the AUDUSD trade lower briefly.

Further downside on the AUDUSD can be expected if the CPI data is released at or lower than 4.5%, with the Ichimoku cloud and the RSI also indicating bearish sentiment for the AUDUSD. Look for the price to break through the bullish trendline and the price level of 0.6650 as a confirmation of further downside, with the next immediate support level at 0.6535 and the major support level at 0.63

热门话题

本周关键经济数据和巨头财报将直接左右市场走向。在数据方面，非农数据将于周五发布，此外，美国ADP就业人数，美国Markit制造业PMI终值，美国ISM制造业PMI等数据将在非农数据发布之前陆续公布。美联储将召开2024年首次议息会议，市场普遍预计在1月份的会议上将连续第四次维持利率不变，焦点将集中在鲍威尔在发布会上的讲话。在业绩方面，美股财报季节达到高潮，本周美股“七巨头”公司大部分将发布业绩，包括谷歌、微软、苹果、亚马逊和Meta，它们的市值占据标普500指数的近25%。此外，本周还有其他重要企业的财报公布，如辉瑞、AMD、波音、高通和埃克森美孚等。鉴于特斯拉和英特尔上周财报表现不佳导致股价暴跌，本周这些巨头的财报极可能引发市场巨大波动。

以下是本周关键数据公布时间线：周一，美国1月达拉斯联储商业活动指数将公布；飞利浦将在美东时间1月29日公布新季度业绩，超微电脑将在美股当天盘后发布季报。周二，美国FHFA房价指数月率、美国咨商会消费者信心指数等数据将公布；微软、谷歌和美国超微公司最新季度业绩将在美东时间1月30日美股盘后发布。市场分析师预测，由于对人工智能服务的需求与云计算相结合，将推动微软的长期增长趋势。市场普遍预计微软Q2营收将达到610.54亿美元，同比增长15.75%，每股收益将为2.76美元，同比增长25.56%。谷歌Q4预计实现营收852.28亿美元，同比增长12.07%，每股收益为1.6美元，同比增长52.31%。这样高的预期可能使谷歌难以实际达到。目前，谷歌已在人工智能领域引发投资热潮，而将人工智能技术整合到产品中是否能够增强公司的盈利能力成为投资者关注的焦点。此外，即将公布财报的AMD也是另一个爆发点，市场预期AMD四季度营收将达到61.39亿美元，同比增长9.64%；每股收益为0.26美元，同比增长近25倍。周三，美国1月ADP就业人数将公布；波音将在美东时间1月31日发布新季度业绩，高通等公司将在美股盘后公布业绩报告。高通曾预测2024财年第一季度营收将达到91亿美元至99亿美元，这一业绩展望超出分析师预期；CDMA技术部门营收将达到77亿美元至83亿美元；技术授权部门营收将达到13亿美元至15亿美元之间，实现这一预期将相当有难度。

周四将是本周最重要的一天，包括美联储利率决议和鲍威尔新闻发布会，以及苹果、亚马逊和Meta的业绩报告。由于是2024年首次美联储议息会议，市场将密切关注鲍威尔发布会上的每个发言，以了解美联储新一年的政策动向。市场普遍预计，本次议息会议将连续第四次维持利率不变，真正的关注点将在3月份及之后。分析师认为，鲍威尔可能避免给出确切的降息时间表，同时试图抑制市场对3月份政策变化的预期。然而，鲍威尔也不太可能完全排除今年上半年降息的可能性。投资者将特别关注苹果、亚马逊和META的最新季度业绩报告。根据彭博分析师预期，苹果Q1营收为1180.81亿美元，同比增长1%；调整后净利润323.2亿美元，同比增加8%；每股收益为2.11美元。苹果短期增长预计将保持在低至中个位数，主要依赖于服务业务的推动。中国消费者疲软和竞争激烈可能成为短期增长的阻碍。对亚马逊而言，第三方销售数据表现良好，预计第四季度零售收入将上升，经营利润率可能接近或高于指导上限。然而，亚马逊云端运算服务(AWS)收入预期相对黯淡。META则面临市场估计的12.5%至13%的增幅，投资者普遍相信最终可能高于市场预测水平。

周五，经济数据方面，再次迎来每月一次的非农数据发布，经济学家们预计1月非农就业人口将增加16.2万人，失业率将保持在3.7%。根据彭博社调查，继12月份增加21.6万人之后，1月份美国非农就业人数预计将增加约18万人。回顾12月，美国非农就业人数增加21.6万人，预估为增加17.5万人，前值为增加19.9万人。12月平均时薪同比增长4.1%，预估增长3.9%。私营部门非农就业人数增加16.4万人，前一个月为增加13.6万人，预估为增加13万人。此外，美国1月失业率、美国1月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值和美国1月一年期通脹率预期也将在当日公布。在企业方面，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙等公司将在美东时间2月2日美股盘前发布新季度业绩。免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

US telecommunications giant, AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), released its latest financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday. The company reported revenue of $32.022 billion for Q4 2023 vs. $31.457 billion. Revenue was up by 2.2% year-over-year.

Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimate of $0.557 per share at $0.54 per share for the quarter, down by 12.96% year-over-year. Full year revenue reached $122.4 billion, up by 1.4% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1885 Headquarters: Whitacre Tower, Dallas, Texas, United States Number of employees: 160,700 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications, Technology Key people: William Kennard (Chairman), John Stankey (CEO) CEO commentary ''We accomplished exactly what we said we would in 2023, delivering sustainable growth and consistent business performance, resulting in full-year free cash flow of $16.8 billion, ahead of our raised guidance.

As we advance our lead in converged connectivity, we will continue to scale our best-in-class 5G and fiber networks to meet customers’ growing demand for seamless, ubiquitous broadband, and drive durable growth for shareholders,'' John Stankey, CEO of AT&T, said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.97% at the end of trading day on Wednesday at $16.68 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +1.71% 1 month: +0.66% 3 months: +9.87% Year-to-date: -0.54% 1 year: -18.27% AT&T stock price targets Oppenheimer: $21 Wells Fargo & Company: $20 Royal Bank of Canada: $30 Citigroup: $18 Morgan Stanley: $19 Scotiabank: $18.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: 17 Deutsche Bank: $22 Barclays: $17 Moffett Nathanson: $17 HSBC: $19 TD Cowen: $23 Raymond James: $25 Cowen: $25 Credit Suisse Group: $19 AT&T Inc. is the 115th largest company in the world with a market cap of $119.33 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

You can trade AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AT&T Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

热门话题如果说2023年的关键词是加息，那么相比大家已经猜到今天分享的2024年投资关键词就是：降息。更加具体来说，美国的降息是今年投资者关注的重点。降息将直接影响各类风险资产以及美元美债。2023年11月初以来资本市场已经开始投注美联储降息。美联储2023年最后一次利率决议决定将基准利率维持在5.25%-5.50%区间不变。今年八次决议中，美联储进行了四次25个基点的加息，另外四次维持利率不变。同时美国经济基本面状况、财政再融资和美联储政策立场这三大因素都出现了转变：美国制造业PMI转弱，去年四季度GDP增速放缓；美国财政部去年四季度再融资例会下修了四季度融资规模，下调了长期国债的净发行规模；美联储“转鸽”，12月例会确认讨论降息问题，并扩大2024年降息空间。回顾美联储历史上的加息后，都会出现比较急剧的降息，市场提前计价降息也在情理之中。但是我们认为2024年美联储并不会急剧降息。主要原因有两个：对经济影响的担忧和美国今年大选。

在经济层面，与历史上的高通胀引发的加息周期相比，本轮新冠疫情期间大放水后的货币紧缩具有独特性。目前，美国的各项经济数据显示美联储的经济仍然强劲。通过对比美国基准利率与美国实际GDP同比，本轮加息周期临近尾声，经济意外与利率保持一致升势。而观察历史1994年、2000年及2006年，经济均呈现加息后的明显放缓下行趋势。

此外经济仍然有再通胀风险，美国12月CPI数据意外强于预期。经济软着陆且美联储降息情景下，劳动力市场越紧张，再通胀风险越大。美国劳工部数据显示，美国去年12月失业率为3.7%，仅比美联储2022年3月开始加息时高出0.1个百分点。就业市场仍然具有韧性，物价压力仍较高。这次确实可能出现1960年代或1990年代中期或末期的情形：在降息一段时间后，美国经济或面临再通胀风险，进而限制美联储降息幅度，甚至引发美联储重新加息。因此美联储过早或过于激进的降息不具备性价比。利率按兵不动等待后续经济数据验证将是后续市场主线逻辑。和美国相比，其他主要国家的经济增长与通胀降温这两方面的综合情况不如美国，可能会更早转向降息，因此美国利率与他国仍保持息差的情况下，美元将有进一步支撑。美国大选及息差将支撑美元。此外，市场将在3月左右开始消化他们对美国总统大选的预期，届时美国两党的两位候选人应该已经可知。目前，特朗普在共和党中的民调支持率遥遥领先，预计极有可能成为共和党的总统候选人。德意志银行分析师在报告中写道:“在国会选举结果揭晓之前，美国国内持续面临政策不确定性。市场最有可能关注特朗普的外交政策和贸易优先事项，其中包括对进口商品征收10%的全面关税这样的政策，過抑制進口和遏制美元流出美國，來幫助提振美元兌其他貨幣。2024开年以来美元指数不下反上，目前位于103美元附近。2024年，美国长期利率和美元指数可能会在双向波动的前提下温和回落。现阶段，投资者需要谨记，降息并非影响美元唯一因素，此外，市场在去年底对美国降息的提前计价可能过于激进，这也是美元开年反弹的推手之一。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：GO Markets 墨尔本中文部 Cecilia Chen