市场资讯及洞察

瑞士国家银行基准利率

数据来源：瑞士国家银行（SNB）（官方基准利率数据库2000.01–2025.09）

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瑞士国家银行（Swiss National Bank，简称SNB，中文称瑞士央行）于2025年9月25日对外公布了货币政策评估会议决定，宣布维持政策利率于0.00%水平，这标志着自2024年3月以来连续六次降息后宽松周期的结束。值得注意的是，瑞士央行在2025年10月23日迈出了历史性的一步，首次公布货币政策会议纪要，突破了长期以来作为全球主要央行中最不透明机构之一的形象。该纪要详细记录了9月23-24日货币政策评估会议期间管理委员会及专家团队对金融市场、货币指标、国际环境和瑞士经济状况的深入讨论过程。根据公布的官方文件，政策利率维持在0%不变，银行在瑞士央行持有的活期存款将按政策利率在一定门槛内获得利息，超过门槛的存款折扣维持在0.25个百分点。瑞士央行表示将继续密切监测形势，必要时调整货币政策以确保价格稳定，并确认"仍然愿意在必要时积极参与外汇市场"。

瑞士国家银行在2025年9月发布的条件性通胀预期

数据来源：瑞士国家银行（SNB）

从瑞士央行公布的条件性通胀预期表格可见，瑞士央行对通胀轨迹的展望呈现温和回升态势。其2025年9月的预期显示，2025年全年平均通胀率为0.2%，2026年为0.5%，2027年为0.7%。从季度数据来看，通胀率从2025年第三季度的0.2%逐步上升至2028年第四季度的0.8%，整个预期时间范围内通胀始终保持在瑞士央行2%价格稳定目标的范围内。值得注意的是，相比6月的预期，9月预期在中期展望上基本保持不变，仅在2028年第四季度略有上调至0.8%。

瑞士国家银行在2025年9月条件性通胀预期图表

数据来源：瑞士联邦统计局（SFSO）；瑞士国家银行（SNB）

上图展示了瑞士央行在2025年9月条件性通胀预期的自2022年以来至2028年中期左右的轨迹，清晰呈现了瑞士通胀从2022年高点回落至当前低位的历史路径。蓝色线条显示实际通胀率从2022年峰值3.5%附近持续下降，于2025年初短暂进入负值区间，随后在2025年中期重返正值。红色线条代表基于0%政策利率假设的9月预期，橙色线条为6月预期。两条预期线高度重合，均显示通胀在过去已经历的时间段内从高位回落至低位，这反映了瑞士经济已经观察到的通胀趋势。

瑞士国家银行公布的2025年9月实际通胀率

数据来源：瑞士联邦统计局（SFSO）

从瑞士联邦统计局（SFSO）提供的实际观察通胀数据表格可以看到，通胀率在2022年达到2.8%的年度峰值后持续回落。2023年全年通胀率为2.1%，2024年进一步降至1.1%。进入2025年后，通胀呈现更为显著的下行趋势，第一季度降至0.4%，第二季度进一步跌至0.0%的零通胀水平。根据瑞士央行官方声明，通胀从5月的-0.1%回升至8月的0.2%，这一变化主要归因于旅游业和进口商品价格的变动。各种核心通胀指标显示基础通胀水平几乎未变。 

瑞士央行在2025年9月25日新闻发布会管理委员会介绍性讲话中，详细阐述了经济增长状况。官方文件指出，瑞士第二季度经济增长疲弱，在第一季度强劲增长后GDP仅增长0.5%。上半年的重大波动主要归因于制药行业，该行业因提前向美国交付产品而在第一季度增加值大幅上升，第二季度则出现相应的反向运动。近几个月失业率的数据显示出上升趋势。

关于经济状况，官方声明表示："由于美国关税大幅提高，瑞士的经济前景已经恶化。关税可能特别抑制出口和投资。机械和钟表行业的企业受到的影响尤为严重。"瑞士央行对2025年全年GDP增长率的预期为1%至1.5%，对2026年的增长率预期略低于1%。

根据首次公布的瑞士央行货币政策会议纪要，管理委员会认为当前的货币政策已经具有扩张性效果，且过去数个季度降息的完整影响尚未完全显现。在通胀压力疲弱和经济前景略微恶化的背景下，扩张性的货币政策正在支持未来几个季度的通胀回升，并为经济增长提供支撑。瑞士央行的货币政策框架建立在价格稳定定义、中期通胀预期和政策利率工具三大支柱之上。瑞士央行将价格稳定界定为消费者价格指数年度涨幅低于2%的区间，而当前的条件性通胀预期在整个预期时间范围内均处于这一区间。

瑞士央行声明指出："瑞士的经济前景仍然不确定。主要风险是美国贸易政策和全球经济发展。"根据公开信息，美国在2025年8月对瑞士商品实施了关税措施，但制药产品暂时获得豁免。官方文件显示，迄今为止对其他行业特别是服务业的影响有限。

综合而言，基于瑞士央行发布的货币政策评估文件、瑞士联邦统计局的统计数据和管理委员会声明，当前瑞士央行的货币政策利率维持在0%水平，活期存款利率政策保持不变，并表示将继续监测经济和通胀状况。这一政策立场反映了在低通胀环境与经济增长疲弱之间寻求平衡的策略考量。

相关官方文件和详细数据请参考:

瑞士国家银行官方网站：https://www.snb.ch/en

瑞士国家银行数据门户：https://data.snb.ch/en

瑞士联邦统计局官方网站：https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home.html

免责声明: 本文内容仅为一般性建议（General Advice），未考虑任何个人的具体投资目标、财务状况或特定需求，不构成个人财务建议（Personal Advice）、投资建议、税务建议、法律建议或任何金融产品推荐等。本文陈述的所有信息均基于瑞士国家银行（SNB）及瑞士联邦统计局（SFSO）等公开渠道已发布的历史数据和官方声明，不包含任何对未来市场走向、经济表现、投资回报或政策变化的预测、预判或前瞻性陈述，过往表现和历史数据不代表未来结果。所有投资均涉及风险，包括可能损失全部本金，外汇、差价合约（CFD）、衍生品等杠杆类产品具有高风险特性，可能导致快速且重大的损失，据统计大部分散户投资者账户在交易CFD时出现亏损，市场价格可能因各种因素剧烈波动。本文引用的信息来源于公开渠道，虽已尽力确保准确性，但不对信息的完全准确性、完整性、及时性或适用性作出任何明示或暗示的保证，信息可能存在延迟、需要更正，或因市场和政策环境快速变化而不再适用于当前情况。在做出任何投资或财务决策前，您应当仔细考虑自身的财务状况、投资目标和风险承受能力，进行适当性评估以确保相关产品或策略符合您的需求，并咨询持有澳大利亚金融服务牌照（AFSL）的财务顾问、税务专业人士或法律顾问，同时了解并遵守您所在司法管辖区的相关法律法规。本文提及的任何第三方机构、产品或服务不构成推荐或认可，相关商标、名称归其合法所有者。在法律允许的最大范围内，作者及相关方对因使用、依赖或无法使用本文信息而导致的任何直接、间接、附带、特殊或后果性损失不承担任何责任。投资有风险，决策需谨慎。

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Pine Script是TradingView提供的专属编程语言，旨在帮助交易者创建自定义指标和策略，进行回测和实时分析。作为一种轻量级但功能强大的语言，Pine Script 使用户能够在TradingView平台上实现个性化的技术分析工具。要在TradingView上使用Pine Script，首先需要在图表界面打开“Pine 编辑器”。在编辑器中，用户可以编写脚本并将其应用于图表。脚本可以是指标（如移动平均线、RSI 等）或策略（用于回测交易信号）。

官方文档提供了详细的函数和示例，帮助用户理解和应用各种功能。此外，TradingView拥有一个活跃的社区，用户可以在“公共库”中浏览和使用他人分享的脚本。通过搜索功能，可以找到各种类型的指标和策略，满足不同的交易需求。许多脚本是开源的，用户可以查看其源代码，学习他人的编程思路，并根据自己的需要进行修改和优化。介绍完 Pine Script 的基础功能后，接下来我们将动手实战，编写第一个简单的均线技术指标，并将其应用到K线图中。

indicator("MA #1",overlay=true)short = 20long = 120shortMA = ta.ema(close, short)longMA = ta.ema(close, long)plot(shortMA, color = color.blue)plot(longMA, color = color.orange)这段Pine Script脚本实现了在TradingView的主图（也就是 K 线图）上绘制两条不同周期的指数移动平均线（EMA）。它的作用是帮助交易者观察市场的短期与长期趋势，是很多技术分析中常见的基础工具。首先，脚本通过indicator("MA #1", overlay=true)定义了指标的基本信息。其中"MA #1"是该指标在图表上显示的名称，而overlay=true表示该指标将直接绘制在价格图上，而不是在单独的副图中显示。接下来，脚本定义了两个变量short=20和long=120，分别代表短期和长期均线的周期。周期指的是计算均线时所参考的历史K线数量，比如在日线图中，20就代表20个交易日。之后，使用ta.ema(close, short)和ta.ema(close, long)计算出这两个周期的EMA值，分别赋值给shortMA 和longMA。EMA是一种常用的平滑移动平均方式，相较于简单移动平均（SMA），它对最新的数据更敏感，因此在趋势判断上更及时。最后，通过plot(shortMA, color=color.blue) 和 plot(longMA, color=color.orange) 将两条 EMA 线绘制到图表上，分别使用蓝色和橙色加以区分。这样，交易者在图表中就可以直观地看到短期与长期的价格趋势，有助于进行技术分析、识别趋势方向或寻找潜在的买卖点。

整体而言，这段代码是非常适合初学者的 Pine Script 示例，简洁清晰，同时具备实用性，为后续扩展更多交易逻辑（如信号提示、策略测试等）打下良好基础。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。

联系方式：

墨尔本 03 8658 0603

悉尼    02 9188 0418

中国地区(中文）  400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903

作者：

Michael Miao | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

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亚洲

‍北京时间早间7时，韩国将公布三季度GDP初值，市场预计经济增速或继续温和修复。与此同时，深圳成为今日全球科技与产业创新的焦点：2025世界数字城市大会、深圳国际全触与显示展、广东国际机器人及智能装备发展大会及2025金融街论坛年会同时开幕，议题涵盖智慧城市、制造业升级与数字金融生态，体现中国在新质生产力领域的持续布局。

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‍欧洲

‍欧股开盘前，瑞士制药巨头诺华制药将发布季度业绩报告。德国经济和能源部长莱歇将在16:30发表讲话，欧洲央行将于17:00发布CPI预期及贷款调查报告，随后管委Panetta讲话。投资者普遍关注欧央行对通胀路径及信贷环境的最新判断。

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‍美国

‍隔夜美股再度全线走强。标普500指数收涨1.23%至6875.16点，道琼斯指数涨0.71%至47544.59点，纳斯达克综合指数涨1.86%，报23637.46点，创历史新高。科技与半导体板块表现突出，纳指科技指数涨超2.3%，半导体指数涨超2.7%。分析人士指出，AI主题回暖及企业盈利超预期成为推动主要股指连续三日创新高的主因。

美股盘前，PayPal、联合健康、NextEra Energy、UPS及康宁公司等将陆续发布业绩报告；盘后，Booking、艺电（EA）、Visa与希捷科技接力亮相。与此同时，英伟达年度GTC大会时间待定，CEO黄仁勋预计将公布最新AI战略，市场期待公司在生成式人工智能与高性能计算领域的新突破。

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‍企业与贸易

‍据知情人士透露，亚马逊将启动公司历史上最大规模裁员，预计削减约3万个企业部门岗位，占企业员工总数近10%。此次调整涉及云计算等核心业务，反映出科技巨头在AI投资与成本控制之间的重新平衡。市场人士认为，亚马逊此举虽短期内承压，但或为公司在AI时代的组织结构调整铺路。在国际贸易方面，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆表示，美国高层官员已同意延长两国在贸易、安全及移民问题上的谈判期限，双方官员将继续推进对话，美国暂不加征额外关税。这一进展有助于缓解市场对北美供应链不确定性的担忧。A股今日盘后，沪电股份、巨人网络、生益电子、生益科技、阳光电源、中兴通讯、兆易创新等多家公司将披露三季报，电子与新能源板块有望成为市场焦点。

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‍能源与大宗商品

‍伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜收涨66美元，报每吨11029美元，首次收于1.1万美元上方，连续三日累计涨幅达3.05%。分析人士指出，新能源与基础设施需求持续强劲，支撑铜价创下历史新高。

北美方面，加拿大股指下跌0.6%至30167点，美元兑加元持稳于1.40。安大略地区领导人批评美国在钢铁贸易问题上“欺诈加拿大”，并指出汽车产业在双边贸易中的地位正逐步下降。

值得关注的是，美国能源部与芯片巨头AMD宣布建立总额10亿美元的超级计算机与人工智能合作项目，计划建造两台新一代超级计算机，用于核能研究、癌症治疗、国防及药物开发。能源部长Chris Wright表示，该项目将“超级推动”聚变能、国防与高端科学研究的进展。

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‍免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。

联系方式：

墨尔本 03 8658 0603

悉尼    02 9188 0418

中国地区(中文）  400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903

作者：

Michael Miao | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

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President Trump and President Xi have scheduled talks for later this week in South Korea, marking their first face-to-face meeting since Trump's return to office. After two weeks of heightened tension, a preliminary framework was established that effectively takes the threatened 100% tariffs off the table.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterised the framework agreement as being "very successful." This diplomatic progress has created some optimism across markets that the world's two largest economies can avoid the deeper trade conflict that was threatening to destabilise supply chains and accelerate inflation.

Copper Tests Key Resistance

Following a dramatic Q3 that saw prices surge to a record high of $5.81 in July, before plummeting to $4.37 by early August, copper has been steadily recovering as supply fundamentals reassert themselves. 

Since breaking through $5.00 in early October, prices have continued to gain strength, rising to $5.11 on October 9. Today's gap higher on trade talk optimism pushed prices back to this key technical level that has proven resistant since March. 

A confirmed breakout above $5.24 could open the door to $5.50 and potentially higher, making copper worth watching closely this week as both supply constraints and improving US-China trade relations provide potential tailwinds.

Fed Rate Decision This Week

The Federal Reserve will meet this Wednesday for the October 28-29 policy meeting, with a quarter-point rate cut seemingly fully priced in by markets. Market pricing indicates a 100% probability of an October cut and an 88% chance of another reduction in December. 

The key moment will come after the meeting during Fed Chair Powell's press conference — particularly on what he has to say about future rate policy and how the Fed views the balance of risks between inflation and employment.

Market Insights

‍Watch the latest video from Mike Smith for the week ahead in markets.

Key economic events

‍Stay up to date with the key economic events for the week.

相信你一定被最近网络上关于中国调整美国大豆采购的新闻所吸引过。有人认为，中国在大豆问题上通过贸易策略掌握了主动权；也有人觉得，美国作为全球经济强国，其产业体系足够分散，不会因单一农产品受到太大影响。而今年中国减少美国大豆采购以来，巴西的出口迅速增长，也引起了市场的关注。究竟为何中美之间会因为一颗小小的豆子而牵动如此复杂的局面？时间要拨回到20多年前。

我们知道，在农产品中，大豆具有较高的经济价值，不仅是粮食作物，同时也是榨油及饲料的重要原材料。约25年前，中国加入世界贸易组织，美国在农产品开放方面提出了一系列条件，其中就包括大豆进口市场的放开。对中国而言，加入世贸组织带来了巨大的机遇与市场，因此贸易开放是当时的重要战略选择。但也正因为如此，中国农业市场随后经历了一段价格波动与结构调整期。

随着市场开放，美国企业通过期货市场的价格操作与市场预期传播，推高了大豆价格，导致部分油企在高价采购后因价格下跌而承受损失。部分中小企业因此面临经营压力，而外资企业趁机进入市场，收购优质农业资产。这一系列市场行为使中国认识到提升自主调控能力的重要性。此后，中国在粮食储备和战略布局上逐步完善体系，以应对全球市场的波动。

在此背景下，中国积极寻求第三方大豆供应来源，包括推动南美国家在港口、运输及农业技术等方面的合作与建设。这种合作不仅带动了当地经济发展，也为中国建立了更加稳定的进口渠道。今年南美地区气候良好，巴西大豆产量充足，两国之间的贸易往来更加频繁。

另一方面，美国大豆产业并未因此陷入长期困境。约有10%左右的农户使用期货工具对冲价格风险，约八到九成生产商则通过农业保险保障收益。由于期货市场的杠杆较高、风险较大，多数农户更倾向于稳妥的方式，并享受联邦层面的政策支持。保险公司则利用期货市场的空头头寸来进行风险管理。

总体来看，中国通过长期储备、供应链多元化以及金融风险管理手段，在国际农产品市场中增强了稳定性与抗风险能力。美国农业则凭借成熟的金融体系与保险机制维持了生产韧性。未来，中美在农产品领域的竞争与合作仍将并存，而大豆贸易正是这一全球化博弈的缩影。

免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。

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You have just identified a breakout above $50 resistance that historically wins 65% of the time — with a degree of confidence, you decide to take the trade.

Minutes later, the market starts to stall. Volume fades, price begins to hesitate, and eventually, your stop loss is hit, leaving you to wonder why your “65% setup” didn’t work.

The root cause of what happened is not your setup, but rather the fact that you assume that the probability of a specific trade outcome stays constant after entry.

This assumption locks you into a “static probability trap.” 

There is a tendency to treat probability as frozen in time after entering a trade, when in practice it shifts continuously throughout the life of a trade as new evidence enters the market.

Even if this new evidence may not be particularly dramatic, it can still have profound implications for the likelihood of a continuation of current sentiment and price action.

Unconditional Probability: Your Pre-trade State.

What you can rely on as part of your pre-entry decision-making is unconditional probability. 

This is your measured historical performance of a setup under similar conditions. It is your expected win rate and previous evidence of hitting a take-profit level.

The pre-trade belief that “This pattern works 60% of the time” is a backward-looking statement, and although based on some evidence, it shapes your belief about how this type of setup behaves on average.

However, as soon as you enter, the truth is that you are no longer dealing with a statistical average, but with this specific trade, unfolding before your eyes in this market environment, right now.

Conditional Probability: After You Enter

Once in the trade, your question becomes “Given what’s happening now with current price movement, volume, time, and volatility,  what’s the probability of success?”

This live review of your pre-trade expectation is the conditional probability — your new probability estimate conditioned on the actual market response that is unfolding.

Each new candle, volume shift, or volatility change is new information, irrespective of the underlying cause, and information changes probability. 

You are looking to see if:

• Trading volume is confirming or rejecting your entry expectations.
• If “time in the trade” supports further price moves in your favour or decay in market enthusiasm, evidenced in a drop in momentum.
• There are volatility changes that may be indicative of market sentiment accelerating or rejecting the initial move.

This is all about you recognising that some of these changes may result in adverse price moves. Having timely interventions that aim to protect capital and not donate much of your profit back to the market. 

Emotional Resistance to Conditional Probability Thinking

As with many trading situations, there is a psychological component of decision-making that can get in the way. 

Emotional “demons” that may influence this may briefly include the following: 

1. Anchoring: “I have done my analysis — it should work.”
2. Sunk-Cost Bias: “I’m already in, I might as well wait and see what happens next.”
3. Ego: Some may view that exiting means admitting they were wrong.
4. Lack of knowledge: “I don’t know how to update probabilities or take appropriate actions.” 
5. FOMO (fear of missing out): “What if I exit and then runs in my favour?”

These biases keep traders fixed at entry from mental, emotional, and statistical perspectives. 

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Updating Probability in Real Time

When you boil it all down into absolute core principles, three critical factors dominate the “in the trade” probability landscape after trade entry.

1. Trading Volume — Conviction or Rejection

Volume is the purest signal of conviction. It shows the strength behind the move and how much belief the market has in your trade direction. 

• High volume in your direction = strong confirmation; probability rises.
• Fading or below-average volume = weak conviction; probability erodes.
• High volume against you = rejection; probability collapses.

You can think of volume as your real-time market feedback gauge. It is the purest real-time evidence, in combination with price, of what other traders are thinking.

When price and volume disagree, this is a signal that the odds may (or already have) changed.

2. Time Elapsed — Pattern Decay

Every trade setup has a shelf life. A breakout that has not moved after a few candles can become statistically weaker than one that fired almost immediately. 

The potential scenarios are:

• Quick follow-through: expected behaviour; your entry probability is likely to be intact.
• Extended stagnation: increasing probability decay due to trades losing confidence in the trade direction
• Delayed reversal: final evidence of pattern failure.

Each candle that passes without confirmation can be viewed as a ‘vote’ against your trade from the market. 

This dissuades further trading interest in your desired direction, as opposed to when a market is enthused and buying seems to create ever-increasing interest as those who are fearful of missing out jump on board.  

3. Volatility Regime — The Environment Shift

Volatility defines your market environment, and this environment can change fast. 

• Volatility expansion in your favour confirms momentum; the probability of desirable and expected outcomes increases.
• Volatility expansion against you suggests a potential structural shift in the market, resulting in a fast drop in probability.
• Volatility contraction suggests market consolidation or exhaustion. This may be seen as a flattening of price action and a move from strongly directional to a more neutral price move. 

Volatility regime shifts are a potential market indication that “the game when you entered is no longer the same.”

Putting It All into Practice: Your End-of-Candle Review

Managing conditional probability doesn’t mean reacting to every tick. It is formalising a systemised reassessment at defined intervals, often doing an “End-of-Candle Review”, on your chosen trading timeframe as a start point.

At the close of each bar on your trading timeframe, you need to pause and ask the following key questions:

1. Has price behaved as expected?
   
   • Yes → maintain or increase confidence.
   • No → reduce exposure or prepare to exit.
2. Is volume confirming or fading?
   
   • Rising with direction → edge intact.
   • Falling or reversing → edge weakening.
3. Is volatility expanding or contracting?
   
   • Expanding in your favour → stay the course.
   • Contracting or reversing → reassess.
4. Has too much time passed without progress?
   
   • Yes → probability decay in play; consider exiting or scaling out.
5. What’s the appropriate action?
   
   • Hold, reduce, tighten, or exit — but always act in alignment with the evidence.

This simple routine keeps your decision-making informed by data, adaptable to market change, and unemotional.

None of the above is particularly ‘rocket science,’ but as with most things in your trading, it will require some work at the front end. 

Measure the “what if” scenario against previous trades and comparatively measure your old way versus your new system over time to allow for confirmation of this as an approach, but also to allow refinement based on evidence.

Final thoughts

The probability of a trading outcome in a single trade is never static. It evolves with every candle, every shift in volume, and every minute of market time as new information is released.

It does require a mindset shift. As traders, we need to move from the standard “It’s a 65% setup, so I’ll hold.” To an approach that adopts the approach of “It was a 65% setup on entry, but what is the market evidence suggesting now?” 

You are reacting to evolving information, and effective probability management becomes something beyond having one good trade (or avoiding a bad one) that compounds small improvement over hundreds of trades into measurable performance.