市场资讯及洞察
Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)
Key areas in focus
The Tesla earnings release can act as a barometer for both global EV demand and capital-intensive innovation across automation and energy systems.
Vehicle deliveries and margins are likely to be the primary near-term drivers of sentiment. Investors will also be watching updates across adjacent initiatives that may influence longer-term growth expectations.
Autonomy and software (FSD)
Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) is a branded advanced driver-assistance feature sold in some markets and requires active driver supervision; availability and capabilities vary by jurisdiction.
Further rollout and any expansion of autonomy-linked services remain subject to regulatory approvals and continued evolution of the underlying technology.
Energy generation and storage
Solar, Powerwall and Megapack remain a key focus, particularly given the segment’s recent growth contribution.
Robotics (Optimus)
Optimus remains early stage, with no disclosed revenue contribution to date. It may become more relevant to Tesla’s longer-term AI and automation aspirations.
Expectations remain delicately balanced between near-term margin pressure, the impact of demand and interest rate movements, and longer-term product and platform developments.
What happened last quarter?
In Q3 2025 (September quarter), Tesla reported mixed results versus consensus expectations. Revenue and deliveries reached record levels, while earnings and margins remained under pressure amid pricing and cost dynamics.
Tesla said it was navigating a challenging pricing environment while continuing to invest for long-term growth (as referenced in the shareholder communications cited below).
Last earnings key highlights
- Revenue: ~US$28.1 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): ~US$0.50 (non-GAAP, diluted)
- Total GAAP gross margin: ~18.0%;
- Operating margin: ~5.8%
- Free cash flow (FCF): ~US$4.0 billion
- Vehicle deliveries: ~497,099 units, up ~7% year on year (YoY)
How did the market react last time?
Tesla shares were volatile in after-hours trading, with attention focused on margins relative to revenue.
What’s expected this quarter?
As of mid-January 2026, third-party consensus estimates (Bloomberg) indicated continued focus on revenue growth alongside profitability and margin resilience. These are third-party estimates, not company guidance, and can change.
Key consensus reference points include:
- Revenue: market expectations ~US$27 billion to US$28 billion
- EPS: consensus clustered near US$0.55 to US$0.60 (adjusted)
- Deliveries: market estimates ~510,000 to 520,000 vehicles
- Margins: focus on whether automotive gross margin stabilises near recent levels or trends lower
- Capital expenditure (capex): focus on spending discipline and efficiency rather than acceleration
*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.
Key areas markets often focus on include:
- Profit margin trajectory, and whether cost efficiencies are offsetting pricing pressure
- Delivery volumes relative to consensus expectations
- Pricing strategy and evidence of demand elasticity across regions
- Capex and implications for future FCF
- Progress in energy storage and non-automotive revenue streams
- Commentary on AI, autonomy and longer-term investment priorities
Expectations
Market sentiment could be described as cautiously optimistic, with investors weighing revenue momentum against margin concerns.
Price has pulled back into a range following a brief test of recent highs in December. Given the recent range-bound price action, deviations from consensus across key earnings metrics may prompt a larger move in either direction.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±5.5% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected move estimate.
Implied volatility (IV) was about 47.7% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:30 am AEDT on 16 January 2026 (local time of observation).
These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian traders
Tesla’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US growth and technology indices, with potential flow-through to broader risk appetite.
For Australian markets, any read-through is often framed through supply chain sensitivity. Market participants may look to related sectors such as lithium and rare earth producers linked to EV inputs are one potential channel, alongside broader sentiment impacts from Tesla’s innovation commentary.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
热门话题AMD的MI300终于来了，准备硬刚英伟达的H100芯片。让大家期待已久的两强争霸终于在AI时代开启，20年前的红绿争霸可谓是打的如火如荼，双方大战几百回合，互有胜负，也都把彼此层逼上过绝路。但是因为H100等芯片的出现，彻底引爆了AI浪潮，看上去开始逐渐的拉开竞争者AMD一条街。当然，AMD的“苏妈”肯定坐不住了，直接宣布2024年会发布MI300芯片。战斗，即将开始，就有种军用科技（Militech）大战荒版（Arasaka）的既视感。
（Source：Cyberpunk 2077）在周三，在加利福尼亚州圣何塞的一场名为“推进人工智能”的活动中，AMD发布了Instinct MI300X和Instinct MI300A两款产品。这些产品标志着世界上首个数据中心级的APU（加速处理单元）的问世，目的是为了抓住日益增长的生成式人工智能和高性能计算领域的机遇。MI300系列产品是AMD运用前沿的生产技术，结合了创新的“3.5D”封装技术，打造出的多芯片组合。这些产品据称在执行各类人工智能任务时，其性能超越了竞争对手英伟达。尽管AMD尚未公布这些采用新型硅材料制成产品的定价，但它们已经开始向广泛的OEM合作伙伴批量发货。
（Source：AMD）Instinct MI300是AMD推出的一款革命性设计的数据中心级APU，它集成了13个不同的芯片组，其中包括多个采用3D堆栈技术的组件。这款APU结合了24个Zen 4 CPU核心、一个基于CDNA 3架构的图形引擎，以及总共八堆的HBM3内存，创造出一个极具实力的芯片。它拥有惊人的1530亿晶体管数量，是AMD生产线上最大的芯片之一。在性能方面，AMD宣称其Instinct MI300X GPU在AI推理任务上的性能比Nvidia的H100 GPU高出1.6倍，并在训练任务上提供类似的性能。这使得Instinct MI300X成为一个高性能的替代选项，与英伟达的GPU产品竞争。更为引人注目的是，这款加速器拥有的HBM3内存容量是英伟达GPU的两倍多，达到每片192GB，使得MI300X平台可以在系统中支持的大型语言模型（LLM）数量是英伟达H100 HGX的两倍，同时运行更大的模型。
（Source：AMD）另一个型号，AMD Instinct MI300A，基于与MI300X相同的设计理念，但在其设计中混合了CPU核心，并减少了一些GPU核心。AMD声称，这款芯片在特定工作负载上的性能可达英伟达H100 GPU的4倍，并且其性能每瓦特是两倍。在设计方面，MI300X展示了AMD在基于芯片组的设计方法上的最高成就。它将八个12Hi堆栈的HBM3内存与八个3D堆栈的5nm CDNA 3 GPU芯片组（称为XCD）结合起来，这些芯片组位于四个底层的6nm I/O芯片之上，并通过AMD成熟的混合键合技术相连。
（Source：AMD）长期以来，行业一直期待出现一款能与Nvidia竞争的产品，以创造市场竞争。MI300X在技术规格上实现了这一目标。尽管在现实世界中，针对AI应用的性能可能会稍显不足，但如先前所述，这可能并不是关键问题。重要的是市场对GPU的需求日益增长，而AMD通过提供新的选项，将增加市场供应，以满足目前相当巨大的需求。AMD的成功在很大程度上归功于其芯片的软件支持，在之前的产品系列中，基本上每更新一次驱动，性能就会有不俗的上升。这一点在AI领域尤为重要，因为软件端能够充分激发AI芯片的潜力，也可能导致其性能下降。AMD依靠其基于开源ROCm的AI软件堆栈和生态系统，这大大促进了用户从Nvidia的CUDA平台向AMD架构的转移和代码优化。在最近的活动中，社区成员特别强调了这种开源方法是AMD与竞争对手的关键区别。AMD与Hugging Face的合作使得超过62,000个AI模型能够在MI300上“即插即用”。虽然目前还没有具体的基准测试来展示这些模型在MI300上的表现（比如针对GPU和无线通信织物的优化情况），但在一个倾向于“即插即用”解决方案的市场中，这可能并不是主要关注点。OpenAI也宣布将在其标准Triton发行版中支持MI300。AMD新发布的ROCm V6软件进一步强化了这一优势，它包含了Flash Attention、减少到8位的数值精度和集体通信等新特性。ROCm V6不仅支持MI300，还将扩展到Ryzen客户端平台。结合MI300的ROCm 6能够提供高达8倍的性能提升。此外，AMD还发布了适用于Ryzen PC的AI软件，这款软件能够使用ONNX量化并部署预训练模型。AMD还宣布了一款新的Ryzen 8040芯片，该芯片预计将在明年发布，增强对即将到来的AI应用的支持。这些举措共同展现了AMD在AI硬件和软件领域的深度整合和创新。
（Source：AMD）对AMD最近的各种官宣，无论是吃瓜群众，还是消费者，投资者或者合作伙伴都抱有很高的期待。尽管大家期望看到MLPerf的测试结果来进一步证明其新产品的性能，但从市场来看，似乎并不太关注这些具体数据。客户和合作伙伴们已经开始排队购买AMD的新GPU，并且积极参与构建所需的开源生态系统，这表明了市场对AMD新产品的兴趣和支持。对于新的AMD AI芯片的发布，也变相造成了英伟达股价的一些压力，周三英伟达股价有些许下跌，目前为455。而AMD股价也在近期未能破位125有一些回调。不过还是很期待AI端能给AMD无论是公司发展，还是股价提供更多动力。
（Source：Tradingview）然而，对于AMD声称其MI300X是世界上最快的AI平台的说法，大家还是有一些怀疑的。要实现与Nvidia平台相同级别的软件和模型优化，需要一个活跃的社区的共同努力，并且这个过程可能需要数年时间来完成。简单来说，虽然AMD的硬件可能具有潜力，但要充分发挥这种潜力，还需时间和人力物力，社区等等的支持。总的来说，AMD的最新动向展示了其在AI领域的雄心及其逐渐增强的市场地位，但在达到行业领先地位方面，仍还有很长的路要走。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) released Q3 financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The US retail giant beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the previous quarter, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: June 24, 1902 Headquarters: Target Plaza Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Brian Cornell (Chairman & CEO) The results Target reported revenue of $25.398 billion for Q3 (down by 4.2% from the same period in 2022) vs. $25.285 billion estimate, according to TradingView.
EPS reported at $2.10 per share (up by 35.9% year-over-year), exceeding analyst estimate of $1.474 per share. CEO commentary "In the third quarter, our team continued to successfully navigate our business through a very challenging external environment. While third quarter sales were consistent with our expectations, earnings per share came in far ahead of our forecast.
This profit performance benefited from our team's commitment to efficiency and disciplined inventory management, and I'd like to thank them for their tireless efforts. Looking ahead, we're continuing to make investments throughout our business -- in our assortment, our team and the services we offer -- to provide the newness, affordability and convenience our guests want during the holiday season and beyond," company CEO, Brian Cornell commented on the latest results and future plans. The stock was up by over 16% after posting better-than-expected results.
Shares were trading at around $129.55 – the highest level since 18/8/2023. Stock performance 1 month: +17.13% 3 months: +0.26% Year-to-date: -13.39% 1 year: -16.97% Target price targets Jefferies: $135 Telsey Advisory Group: $145 Tigress Financial: $180 Evercore ISI Group: $130 B of A Securities: $135 Truist Securities: $116 Stifel: $130 HSBC: $140 Morgan Stanley: $140 Target Corporation is the 270th largest company in the world with a market cap of $59.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) released its latest financial results before the opening bell in the US on Tuesday, beating analyst estimates for the third quarter. Company overview Founded: February 6, 1978 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 471,600 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Ted Decker (President & CEO), Craig Menear (Chairman) The results The US retailer reported revenue of $37.71 billion (down by 3% year-over-year) for Q3 vs. $37.591 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.81 per share (down by 10.14% year-over-year), above $3.755 per share estimate.
CEO commentary "Our quarterly performance was in line with our expectations," Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot said in a press release to investors. "Similar to the second quarter, we saw continued customer engagement with smaller projects, and experienced pressure in certain big-ticket, discretionary categories. We remain very excited about our strategic initiatives and are committed to investing in the business to deliver the best interconnected shopping experience, capture wallet share with the Pro, and grow our store footprint. In addition, our associates did an outstanding job delivering value and service for our customers throughout the quarter and I would like to thank them for their dedication and hard work," Decker added.
Shares of Home Depot rose by over 6% on Tuesday after the latest earnings results. The stock was trading at $307.06 a share – the highest level since 25/9/2023. Stock performance 1 month: +3.58% 3 months: -7.71% Year-to-date: -2.95% 1 year: -1.73% Home Depot price targets Stifel: $306 RBC Capital: $303 Truist Securities: $341 HSBC: $365 Jefferies: $384 Morgan Stanley: $350 Wedbush: $350 Wells Fargo: $360 Barclays: $333 JP Morgan: $335 Goldman Sachs: $350 Home Depot Inc. is the 26th largest company in the world with a market cap of $307 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Home Depot Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Benzinga, Stock Analysis
USD rallied strongly in Thursday’s session after a quiet start following dismal demand for US 30 year-treasuries at a scheduled bond auction, seeing yields surge and taking the USD with them. The push higher was later given an extra boost by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish statements during a panel organized by the IMF. In a scheduled panel chat the FOMC head said that “policymakers are not confident that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the 2.0% target in a sustained manner.” That was enough to see the USD bulls take charge with DXY up 0.4% for the day, while yields also spiked, this saw some volatility in USD cross pairs and gold we’ll look at the highlights in the charts below.
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDJPY pulled back last week after the BoJ tweak to their YCC saw Japanese bond yields rise, giving the Yen a boost. However, as has been the case with this pair in the last 12 months the uptrend quickly resumed, with USDJPY breaking back above the key 151 level and heading towards its 2022 and 2023 high of 151.72. At these levels there is always the threat of a BoJ currency intervention, so traders will need to keep an ear out for any jawboning from BoJ members telegraphing such a move.
If the BoJ steps aside a test of the upper trend line at 154 could be a possibility. If they do step in we could see a decline to a 146 handle and lower trendline before finding any technical support. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has reversed lower this week after the upward momentum failed at the key 2010 resistance level.
Risk premium priced into gold also started to unwind after gaza conflict haven flows pushed the price rapidly higher from early October. Thursday session did see a modest bounce, despite a rampant USD which could give the bulls some hope, however the 23.6 Fib level, which acted as short-term support on the way down now seems to have switched to resistance. This will be the level on the upside to watch (1963.78), the next resistance from a technical point of view will be the 2010 level.
To the downside the 38.2 Fib at 1934.79, which also matches up with the 200 day SMA looks to be the first real support level.
AUDUSD dropped in Tuesday’s session with AUD being weighed on post-RBA decision, as the less hawkish RBA guidance outweighed the widely anticipated 25bps hike to 4.35%. Though the market reaction was a little curious given the small changes to the accompanying statement hardly made it dovish. The RBA changed its forward guidance to say "whether further tightening of monetary policy is required...will depend upon the data" from the previous “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required".
The push lower was also exacerbated by based weakness in the commodity space after a miss in Chinese trade data. Looking at the chart for trading opportunities we can see AUDUSD is trading in a defined range with major resistance at the 0.6500 level and major support at 0.6300 which opens up range trading opportunities with defined stop losses above or below these key levels, another key level is 0.6400 being the mid-price of the range and a level that price has chopped around recently. I think we are likely to see a bit more weakness in AUD on the back of the RBA and risk premiums coming out of gold and oil putting pressure on those commodities.
USDJPY continues to drift higher above the key 150 level into past intervention territory after the dip last week after the BoJ tweaked their YCC to extend the band, allowing Japanese yields to move higher and giving support the Yen. The drop in US yields over the past week and the modest gains in Japanese yields has seen the US 10-year / Japanese 10-year rate differential fall steeply, this rate differential has been a key driver of the USDJPY rate. However, as seen on the chart below USDJPY is remaining stubbornly high despite this, with a decent gap opening up between the rate differential and USDJPY rate.
Whether this gap “fills” i.e. a drop in USDJPY to reflect this rate differential is the question, going from the recent past it would look likely unless we see another leg higher in US yields. For Yen traders the October BoJ SOO released on Thursday will be the next decent data point to keep an eye on.
AUDUSD AUD saw gains to come within a whisker of the key 0.64 level, after hawkish leaning commentary from RBA Assistant Governor Kohler, who noted the decline in inflation is more gradual than previously thought. The Aussie also helped by a weaker USD and improved risk sentiment. The 0.64 level will be key in the near term as the mid-point of AUDUSD 3-month trading range is likely to act as resistance and support and will dictate which side of the range AUDUSD will be testing next.
USDJPY USDJPY rose to fresh peaks of 151.92 before a sharp move lower in the cross was observed without any clear catalyst which of course generated suspicions of intervention, especially given the move happened around 10am EDT, where intervention has occurred before. Also adding to the intervention narrative was comments from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki during the Asian session where he spoke of “undesirable moves in the FX market”. USDJPY fell sharply from 151.92 to 151.19 but did retrace back to 151.70 after the dust settled, if this was a BoJ intervention it seems the 152 level may be the line in the sand and one to watch closely for Yen traders.
XAUUSD Gold rallied on Monday, recouping around half of Fridays losses after finding support at its the Oct lows to highs 38.2 fib retracement level which also matches up with the 200-day SMA. A weaker USD and falling yields also giving gold a boost along with residual safe haven demand.