市场资讯及洞察
Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)
Key areas in focus
The Tesla earnings release can act as a barometer for both global EV demand and capital-intensive innovation across automation and energy systems.
Vehicle deliveries and margins are likely to be the primary near-term drivers of sentiment. Investors will also be watching updates across adjacent initiatives that may influence longer-term growth expectations.
Autonomy and software (FSD)
Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) is a branded advanced driver-assistance feature sold in some markets and requires active driver supervision; availability and capabilities vary by jurisdiction.
Further rollout and any expansion of autonomy-linked services remain subject to regulatory approvals and continued evolution of the underlying technology.
Energy generation and storage
Solar, Powerwall and Megapack remain a key focus, particularly given the segment’s recent growth contribution.
Robotics (Optimus)
Optimus remains early stage, with no disclosed revenue contribution to date. It may become more relevant to Tesla’s longer-term AI and automation aspirations.
Expectations remain delicately balanced between near-term margin pressure, the impact of demand and interest rate movements, and longer-term product and platform developments.
What happened last quarter?
In Q3 2025 (September quarter), Tesla reported mixed results versus consensus expectations. Revenue and deliveries reached record levels, while earnings and margins remained under pressure amid pricing and cost dynamics.
Tesla said it was navigating a challenging pricing environment while continuing to invest for long-term growth (as referenced in the shareholder communications cited below).
Last earnings key highlights
- Revenue: ~US$28.1 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): ~US$0.50 (non-GAAP, diluted)
- Total GAAP gross margin: ~18.0%;
- Operating margin: ~5.8%
- Free cash flow (FCF): ~US$4.0 billion
- Vehicle deliveries: ~497,099 units, up ~7% year on year (YoY)
How did the market react last time?
Tesla shares were volatile in after-hours trading, with attention focused on margins relative to revenue.
What’s expected this quarter?
As of mid-January 2026, third-party consensus estimates (Bloomberg) indicated continued focus on revenue growth alongside profitability and margin resilience. These are third-party estimates, not company guidance, and can change.
Key consensus reference points include:
- Revenue: market expectations ~US$27 billion to US$28 billion
- EPS: consensus clustered near US$0.55 to US$0.60 (adjusted)
- Deliveries: market estimates ~510,000 to 520,000 vehicles
- Margins: focus on whether automotive gross margin stabilises near recent levels or trends lower
- Capital expenditure (capex): focus on spending discipline and efficiency rather than acceleration
*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.
Key areas markets often focus on include:
- Profit margin trajectory, and whether cost efficiencies are offsetting pricing pressure
- Delivery volumes relative to consensus expectations
- Pricing strategy and evidence of demand elasticity across regions
- Capex and implications for future FCF
- Progress in energy storage and non-automotive revenue streams
- Commentary on AI, autonomy and longer-term investment priorities
Expectations
Market sentiment could be described as cautiously optimistic, with investors weighing revenue momentum against margin concerns.
Price has pulled back into a range following a brief test of recent highs in December. Given the recent range-bound price action, deviations from consensus across key earnings metrics may prompt a larger move in either direction.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±5.5% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected move estimate.
Implied volatility (IV) was about 47.7% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:30 am AEDT on 16 January 2026 (local time of observation).
These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian traders
Tesla’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US growth and technology indices, with potential flow-through to broader risk appetite.
For Australian markets, any read-through is often framed through supply chain sensitivity. Market participants may look to related sectors such as lithium and rare earth producers linked to EV inputs are one potential channel, alongside broader sentiment impacts from Tesla’s innovation commentary.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
热门话题美联储转鸽 资产大幅反弹美联储在最新的货币政策会议上宣布，将连续三次保持利率不变，同时做出对加息立场的软化改动。
美联储货币政策会议：突显降息预期会议指出将考虑任何额外的紧缩程度，并首次承认了过去一年通胀放缓的情况。本周二数据同样显示通胀放缓的情况，美国11月CPI同比增长录得4%如期放缓，11月核心CPI同比增速持平10月的3.1%。
联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上表示，降息显然是讨论的话题，但对于何时开始货币宽松仍为时尚早。这一决定被视为美联储首次明确表态，承认通胀放缓趋势。分析人士指出，联储此次释放的信号表明对通胀好转速度的乐观，为明年降息敞开了大门。消息利好资本市场，道指收涨512.3点，涨幅1.4%，报37090.24点，史上首次收盘突破37000点。标普收涨1.37%，报4707.09点，去年1月12日以来首次收盘涨破4700点，连续两日创去年1月以来新高。纳指收涨1.38%，报14733.96点，刷新去年1月14日以来高位。
实质上在刚刚结束的11月，资产已然开始全线上涨。纳斯达克指数上涨12.17%，标准普尔指数上涨9.42%，ASX 200 上涨 3.78%，黄金上涨2.31%，比特币10.24%。导致11月资产大幅反弹的底层逻辑是：市场提前计价美联储降息。
美国经济前景：软着陆是否板上钉钉？历史数据显示，过去的美联储紧缩周期中，只有25%以软着陆结束。大多数美联储紧缩周期——自 20 世纪 50 年代中期以来的 12 个紧缩周期中有 9 个——都以硬着陆结束。
此外，信贷利差持续缩小，违约率有所上升，投资者对软着陆的信心可能预期过高。过去一年，被称为科技“七巨头”的苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta七家公司股价飙升对全球股市的涨幅起到了关键作用。这些科技公司在2022年经历了盈利预期的下调，但2023年随着对人工智能（AI）的乐观情绪，盈利预期有所恢复。
AI的影响使得科技行业与利率和宏观经济脱钩，在美联储给的加息周期科技股持续狂欢，市场定价更依赖于长期盈利预期。投资可根据宏观经济与市场动态积极调整投资策略，谨慎应对可能的市场波动，从近期资本市场表现来看，软着陆带来的好消息2023年正被充分定价，这使得在软着陆的情况下市场有可能出现超调风险，投资者可以更同时关注与经济相关的行业，如工业和资源来丰富投资组合多样性。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师
热门话题
曾经辉煌的Star赌场，人满满的，但是现在停车场都停不满。本周Star股票价格继续下跌了10%。其股价从疫情前的5澳币，一路下跌到目前的0.46澳币，堪比当时的中概股，感觉会面临破产风险。其最严重的事情，就是在新南威尔士州无限期吊销赌博执照，以及昆士兰州推迟吊销执照。各州都进行了对Star的调查，发现Star不适合持有赌场牌照，并对其进行暂停营业的处罚。一个赌场，不适合持有赌场牌照，这个还是很痛的。
但是对于赌场内部人士，尤其是高管，他们对自家公司还是很信任的。虽然目前没有牌照，但是还是在积极配合中，且已经签署协议，和新州政府签署了新的赌场税率。按照我们了解澳洲政府的特性，一旦确认了税务情况，基本上距离重启计划就不远了。且Star懂事增持了股票，从35000多股增持到90100股。但是股东并不买账，毕竟股票从今年初到现在又下跌了80%，股东在股东大会上一直叹息，感叹好耻辱啊。且高管们就薪酬计划又要闹罢工。但这次股东比较温柔，因为再罢工就彻底凉凉了。所以，尽管股价一直下跌， 但是还是满足了高管们的需求，并对董事会进行了改组。今年Star已经连续两次融资，第一次在2月，第二次在6月，希望能够度过难关。而接下来，董事会表示，还会有进一步的融资。而我个人认为，Star在股价一路走低，估值不断降低的最后，有可能迎来私有化进程。2023年Star目前已经亏损24.4亿澳币。Star目前依旧面临从Tabcorp赌博集团分拆以来的最严峻时刻。其起因是2021年，Star在反洗钱方面出现了重大失误，引发了两项国家调查，四项股东集体诉讼，以及吊销了赌场牌照。
但是，剔除宏观基本面的情况，或者公司的牌照问题，仅从财务角度来看，Star目前的股价是被低估的。从现金流分析，其股价公允值应该在1澳币以上。但是这个公允值在股票市场里仅仅是有一定的参考价值。就好比AMP这个公司，估值股价都低于公司资产规模了，但还是一路下跌。所以，现金流贴现模型仅适用于公司基本面没有问题的背景下。但是从另一角度来看，如果Star恢复营业，那么其股价翻倍的概率很大。且Star虽然今年多次融资，但其债务水平还是比较健康，并且明年预计亏损减少。但是，威胁依旧存在，首先就是高利率背景下融资成本升高，且目前的现金流不足以支撑公司运转，需要不断融资，直到现金流为正。最严重的是，目前Star股东董事会虽然同意了高管们的薪资要求，但已经有几名高管理职，包括集团法律顾问，和资产管理与开发部门主管。新的CEO也有离职打算，在和董事会达成一致意见后，Nick预计将继续留任，并任命Richard作为新的亚太负责人，管理墨尔本，悉尼，布里斯班和澳门赌场，帮助Star稳定局势，但是如果未来6个月无法证明Star有能力获得赌场牌照，那么管理层还会迎来一次洗牌，且悉尼Star将会关闭。而Star的老对手Crown这几年风生水起，背靠Blackstone的私有化，Crown无需再对外公开披露信息，所以可以进行更多的商业运作，并减弱社会影响和违规带来的负面影响。Crown退市后，获得了更多国际资本的青睐。所以，一旦Star股价持续下跌，且现金流不足以支撑其公司运营，而未来6个月又看不到牌照希望，Star有可能跌至20c，最终迎来机构入场，廉价购买股份，完成私有化退市。但是，如果Star度过了这次危机，并且重新获得赌场牌照，对于股价将会有极大提振，未来大概率可以翻倍回升到1澳币上方。机遇与风险共存，我们也无法得知各州对Star最后的决定，只能拭目以待。但是对于想要小资金博一下的投资者来说，目前Star的股价是可以考虑入场的。
免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管
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USD was mildly bid on Monday ahead of a very busy calendar starting with US CPI later today. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a high of 104.26, testing its trendline resistance before paring back to finish the session modestly in the green. DXY continuing to trade in the tight range between its 200-Day MA to the downside and resistance at around 104.25 to the upside.
USD traders have a busy week ahead, along with CPI today, PPI and the FOMC rate announcement are ahead tomorrow. The Japanese Yen dumped after a Bloomberg report citing BoJ sources that said the BoJ sees little need to end negative rates in their December meeting. This saw rates markets rapidly reprice what was a 20% chance of a rate hike, down to just 5%.
This translated to a short squeeze on USDJPY as carry traders flooded back in and saw the pair rally to a high of 146.46. Gold saw another large decline, with XAUUSD dropping almost $30 USD an ounce, breaking through the psychological 2000 level and hitting 3-week lows. XAUUSD now sitting on its 50% Fib retracement support, with the next support lower around the 1950-52 level at the 200-day MA and 61.8 fib level.
Ahead today, the real data starts, headlining will be US CPI where the Y/Y figure is expected to moderate to 3.1% vs 3.2% previous.
热门话题相信很多在澳华人和留学生的第一桶金都是通过代购Chemist Warehouse打折商品赚到的。在上周三传出CW将要与Sigma合并的消息，那么今天我们就来看一看这两家公司合并的细节。上周三市场披露了Chemist Warehouse与Sigma合并完成反向上市的细节，Sigma股票随即停牌并在周五的时候延长了停牌时间。Chemist Warehouse的两位亿万富翁创始人Jack Gance和Mario Verrochi将通过与Sigma Healthcare进行的反向上市继续留在该业务中，并担任其董事会成员。交易完成后，Chemist Warehouse的股东将拥有新合并实体85.75%的股份。创始人甘斯和维洛奇的家族将持有集团49%的股份，他们在集团中的持股价值将超过20亿澳元。作为交易的一部分，这两个家族还将获得7亿澳元的现金。这两位创始人于1995年在维多利亚州创立了这家折扣药店连锁，最初拥有五家药房。Chemist Warehouse的董事Mario Tascone也将继续留在业务中，新实体的市值预计将达到约80亿美元。甘斯说，该家族很期待这笔交易，它将创建垂直整合的医药分销和药房业务。“Chemist Warehouse Group的零售和营销能力与Sigma先进的分销基础设施和物流能力的结合为Chemist Warehouse和Sigma的股东带来了独特的机遇。”Chemist Warehouse的主席Jack Gance和他的兄弟Sam Gance基本上已经不再参与零售的日常经营。上市零售商的主席将由Sigma的现主席Michael Sammells担任，Sigma的首席执行官Vikesh Ramsunder也将继续留任，Chemist Warehouse的首席财务官戴维斯（Mark Davis）将成为新集团的首席财务官。
Ramsunder在加入Sigma之前曾在南非经营类似的企业Clicks Group。在他的领导下，Sigma的市值从6.5亿美元增长到了超过8亿美元。与此同时，Chemist Warehouse去年实现了31亿美元的销售额和3亿美元的利润。通过直接所有权和特许经营伙伴关系，Chemist Warehouse已经成为澳大利亚最大的零售商之一，拥有超过20,000名员工和超过20%的市场份额，颠覆了药房行业。Chemist Warehouse是一家高销量但低利润的企业。其货架上摆满了廉价的香水、维生素和化妆品，而药房则位于店铺的后部。与大多数药店相反，它的店内商品销售额高达70%，余额来自处方药物的配发。这两位创始人一直以来都非常低调，并且尽管创造了一家庞大的企业，但一直无法实现他们的股权及相关财富的变现。持有Sigma的股份将为他们以及家庭成员和特许经营伙伴提供出售的机会。这两家企业将合并成一个整体，但仍将运营两个品牌。作为合并计划的一部分，两家集团启动4亿澳元的股权融资，以帮助为新合并的集团提供流动资金。机构投资者部分由高盛澳洲（Goldman Sachs Australia）管理，预计将于周二完成。Chemist Warehouse的公开上市计划多年来一直被讨论，但从未实现，或许是由于创始人对估值的高期望和股权市场条件的变化。在交易的消息曝光后，Sigma的股票于周三停牌。这家市值81亿美元的公司的股价上次交易时为每股765分。
周五，Sigma在ASX声明中表示，讨论仍在进行中，目前尚不能就这项重大交易向市场发布公告。Sigma是澳大利亚最大的制药批发商之一，旗下拥有独立和特许药房网络，品牌包括Amcal、Guardian、Discount Drug Stores和PharmaSave。它还利用其国家分销网络进行合同物流运营。在过去的四年里，Sigma在其九个分销中心和仓储技术上投资了超过3亿美元，管理着14,000种产品，每年向客户交付超过22亿个单位。Sigma在6月份从EBOS手中赢得一份重要的供应合同，对Sigma而言是一个重要的里程碑，因为它使得该公司能够提高产能利用率并增加利润率，预计每年价值30亿澳元。Sigma过去曾试图与竞争对手和Priceline Pharmacy连锁店的所有者API合并，但后者现在由Wesfarmers拥有。代表独立药房利益的强大的药房协会一直试图阻止超市和其他大型公司进入该行业。药房协会在本周早些时候对这笔交易提出了担忧，表示它对竞争和患者护理构成风险，但在周日拒绝进一步置评。可以肯定的是在Chemist成功上市之后，Sigma的股价将会迎来一波大涨。在Go Markets交易平台上这家公司的代码是SIG.ASX，您可以通过我们适当的杠杆放大您的盈利，或者利用我们灵活的双向交易特质来为您的投资组合进行风险对冲。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neal Shao | GO Markets 分析师
热门话题周五美国非农数据略高于预期，但依然保持在20万增长以下。关键的失业率超预期回落0.2%，前期预测值为3.90%，公布值为3.70%，预示着美国就业形势缓和，对市场的利好还是比较大的。数据公布后，美元指数跌幅继续扩大，基准十年期美债收益率保持升势。这些综合的数据，导致周五的三大股指继续收涨，均保持了周线6连涨。尽管道指早早突破前压去冲击牛市前高，标普和纳指却依然没有坐实突破，目前都处于前浪顶压力位置。12月首周来看三大股指整体的涨幅并不大，所以本周是非常关键的一周。具体的三大股指，特别是标普和纳指能否整体上上冲，实现阶段性的突破。首先是道指已经突破前浪尖，且圣诞临近，没有特别大的利空消息，所以目前来说希望还是很大的。
本周是消息大周，美国最新CPI周二来袭，周三PPI，周四清晨美联储利率决议及鲍威尔新闻发布会都能影响市场走向。CPI预测值从3.2%到3.1%，仅回落0.1%，在目前能源和原材料价格持续回落的前提下有望实现，黄金尽管暴涨暴跌，也没能立在2100以上。核心CPI保持在4%预期，预示着通胀压力并未减轻。美联储利率决议维持现有利率已被计价，关键看鲍威尔如何发言引导市场。周二大量的美国国债将会竞拍，届时可能会吸引一部分的流动资金。周三美国公布PPI数据，前值1.30%，预测值回落到1.10%，实现预期将会一定程度上利好股市。周四美联储利率决议，目前已经被市场计价消化，预计维持现有利率不变。另外澳洲最新失业率也将在周四公布，预测值失业率3.80%略有上升，上涨0.1%，但影响不大。本周四瑞士，挪威，英国，欧洲央行等将会公布利率决议，届时将会对货币对以及美元指数产生较大影响。
板块方面，铀矿，稀土，铜矿和银行板块均涨超1%，今天相关澳股也将受到拉升。能源板块止跌小涨，半导体，高科技和非必消品均有小幅上涨。特斯拉小幅收涨，上周走势趋稳，英伟达和微软也继续稳步上行。C3财报暴跌后迅速暴涨，基本抹平跌幅。AMD尽管周涨超6%，但价格临近前浪顶，本周能否实现突破较为关键。上周四发布最强多模态AI模型Gemini正面对决GPT-4的谷歌母公司Alphabet午盘曾涨近6.6%，收涨5.3%，反弹至11月28日以来高位。
美元周五小幅反弹回到104附近，金价则大幅回落勉强守在2000平台，金价近期暴涨暴跌也在意料之中，不宜冲动操作。恐慌指数继续符合预判稳步走低，弱选择避开本周潜在的剧震止盈前期空单，也没有到加多单的时候。油价出现明显反弹，美油重回71以上。外汇方面美元周五反弹令非美货币走低，澳美跌破0.66，美日在暴跌后迅速回暖冲击145平台，短期技术面还是能够获得支撑的，但中期以继续回落为主。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师