市场资讯及洞察

热门话题巴以冲突，恒生跌。巴以冲突，究竟谁对谁错？没有人能够定义。有人说巴勒斯坦不应该伤害以色列人民，也有人说，巴勒斯坦已经快被灭国了，再不反抗就消失了。问题始于百年前，但这百年从来没有过真正的公平与和平。英国于1948年8月1日结束在巴勒斯坦的委任统治，联合国提议在巴勒斯坦的土地上建立两个国家，分别是阿拉伯人的国家和犹太人的国家。阿拉伯国家人口72万人，获得43%的土地。而犹太人人口为1万人，获得巴勒斯坦土地面积的57%。这是不平等的开始。联合国的表决最终在1947年11月29日举行，美国与西欧国家，苏联为首的东欧共产阵营，都在表决中投下赞成票，英国作为托管国以弃权表示中立，中国表示中立，伊斯兰国家及阿拉伯国家则反对议案。第二天，5月15日，阿拉伯国家联合发起对以色列的进攻，引发第一次中东战争。1949年战争结束，阿拉伯人丢失了更多的土地控制权，以色列获得更多的领土。随后，历次战争或者以色列推行的包围策略，使得巴勒斯坦的土地越来越少。巴勒斯坦的生存空间逐渐被压缩，且没有对外展示的话语权。所有主流媒体都被以色列控制，包括巴勒斯坦的用水用电等资源，也被牢牢地把控在以色列手里。到2023年，由于以色列占领对巴勒斯坦经济的影响，四分之一的巴勒斯坦人生活在贫困线以下。以色列的人均收入大约是巴勒斯坦领土的 14 至 15 倍。

从2000年以来，巴以冲突导致的资产价格变化，股市大部分是下跌的，例如标普500下跌幅度一周在1-3%左右。石油价格其实是有涨有跌的，下跌的原因是战争影响了贸易和经济，上涨的原因则是石油可能会减产。美元在大部分时间里都是上涨的。而黄金和铜的价格，则有涨有跌，取决于战事升级的情况。所以，综上，局部地区冲突，对股市的影响是最直接的，也是确定性最高的，就是股票价格下跌。其次是对美元的影响。美元具有避险属性，所以大家会更多的购买持有美元，也导致了贸易货币澳元最近的下跌。再之后是黄金，黄金有一定的避险性，但也取决于美元的表现，通常美元强黄金弱，所以在战事比较轻微的时候，黄金反而不会上涨。总结来说，股市在战事期间，大盘普遍下跌，美国下跌幅度最低，不到1%，日本和香港股市受到负面冲突最大，因为美元会大量流出，其次是欧洲股市，因为距离中东离得近。大宗商品方面，石油有涨有跌，短期看不出来，不过30天以后，石油价格大概率上涨，基本涨幅都超过了10%。天然气大部分时间上涨，均值涨幅超过9%，铁矿石价格下跌，因为经济复苏相对减弱，投资减少。下跌比例较大的是钢材和铝的价格，下跌幅度超过4%。黄金在战争冲突刚升级的时候，是大涨的概率比较高，最多的时候上涨超过20%。但是在7天之后，黄金就涨不动了，并且出现下跌的可能性。我们之前提到过一个不得已的策略，就是买涨美国股指，做空恒生指数。其实在历次战争，恒生的表现都是极差的。比如今年3月份，巴以冲突，标普下跌4.6%，恒生下跌6.2%，进入6月，巴以双方经常擦枪走火，美国股市下跌幅度普遍在1.4%左右，恒生下跌在4%-5%左右。6月以来，恒生累计下跌已经超过10%。

历史上，类似事件对资本市场的影响周期大约是63天。股市具体板块中，在上周五，能源领涨，因油价上涨而上涨 2.3%。公用事业上涨 1%，消费必需品上涨 0.8% 等防御性板块也涨幅居前。由于股市距离冲突地区较远，所以个股不会有特别独特的表现，依旧依附于大宗商品和避险属性等特质波动。总的来说，落后就容易挨打。国家强盛是很重要的。我们希望战争早日结束，但千年的矛盾很难短期化解。对于我们华人投资者来说，可以根据时政变化，及时调整我们的投资组合，避免因为地域危机出现亏损。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

Nvidia has been the star of the US markets since the AI hype kicked off late 2022. The trillion-dollar chip manufacturer’s shares have almost tripled in 2023 alone, with the price increasing every month so far this year. In May, Nvidia surprised the markets by posting earnings and revenue figures well above analysts’ expectations.

This sent price rocketing and adding almost $184B USD to the market cap during the following daily session. Nvidia is set to release their Q2 results on Wednesday, so the markets will be watching to see if they have been able to maintain the strong momentum over the past quarter. Markets are estimating earnings of $2.076B and revenue of $11.14B.

Technically, the price has been ranging sideways between $400-$480 since around June 2023. There is a strong support level around $400 that held multiple times in the past few months, so this will be a key level to hold if the earnings on Wednesday are below expectations. If earnings beat expectations, the price could head back north towards the resistance zone at about $470.

Traders will be watching this level to see if there is enough momentum to break through to all- time highs again. With the AI hype cooling off slightly over the past few months, it will be interesting to see how Nvidia performed over the past quarter and if the momentum was sustainable.

In 2022, it was believed that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened three times, in September when the USDJPY was at 145.80, and in October and November when the USDJPY was at the 151.50 and 146.50 price levels respectively. For each of the 3 interventions, the USDJPY reversed strongly by more than 500pips. With the recent steady climb in the USDJPY in August, rising from 138 to the high of 146.50, there have been increasing comments from members of the BoJ and Japanese government regarding the need for an intervention.

The BoJ has avoided interventions, possible for the interim, by announcing increased flexibility on its yield-curve control (YCC). However, the markets viewed the action as insufficient and the stronger DXY continued to take the USDJPY higher. Continued upside on the USDJPY cannot be ruled out, especially if the DXY continues to strengthen significantly.

However, if the USDJPY continues to trade between the 145 and 146.50 price range, the possibility for an intervention from the BoJ increases. For an impactful intervention, the scale and timing of the decision would not be scheduled. A signal would be based on price volatility, in this case, if the USDJPY breaks through the bullish Ichimoku cloud and down from the 145-round number support level, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

A reversal of 500 pips, similar to previous interventions, could see the USDJPY retest the trendline, along the 140 price level, with interim support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 141.60 price level.

USDJPY briefly pushed above 145 in today’s session before a sharp pullback, with traders wary of recent jawboning from Japanese officials regarding the “one sided” trade in the Yen may be setting the Japanese MoF up for another round on FX intervention that we saw late in 2022. Some sharp moves in the Yen in the last day have had traders speculating the MoF may have already intervened on a small scale but there was no official confirmation of intervention, MoF officials said they have no comment on the matter, but “they are mindful of the one-sided moves”. Looking at a close up of last years price action in the USDJPY may give traders a clue as to what to expect, with minor interventions seeing USDJPY spike lower, only to rise again until a major intervention or surprise policy change sustains a move lower in the cross rate.

This is a fairly predictable scenario from my experience with JPY interventions over the years. Any USDJPY traders would be wise to be familiar with the price action from these previous intervention efforts.

The USD/CAD pair experienced a relatively uneventful session after Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to keep interest rates on hold. However, what caught the attention of traders was the hawkish tone in the central bank's language. Similar to many central banks globally, the BoC is cautious about raising rates further until they thoroughly assess the inflation landscape.

Still, they've left the door open for potential rate hikes in the future. Surprisingly, this hawkish stance from the BoC didn't have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar against the US. The strength of the US dollar remained dominant, keeping the USD/CAD pair relatively flat during the session.

Currently, the pair finds itself at a crucial resistance level, which it has unsuccessfully attempted to breach three times since April. The BoC's hawkish language appears to have halted the pair's upward momentum, preventing a breakout, but wasn’t enough to push the pair south. Since mid-July, the USD/CAD pair has experienced an impressive 4% surge, driven by a resilient US dollar and the US Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation.

However, from the technical view, a slightly bearish divergence is forming on the daily RSI, indicating the move might be running out of steam and a potential correction could be on the cards. In this high inflation environment, the pair's direction will likely hinge on crucial upcoming data releases in the weeks ahead. In addition to the technical setups, traders should keep a close watch on the fundamentals to help navigate potential shifts in direction.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has closed its fourth consecutive day in the red, reaching levels last seen in early May 2023. Despite the recent decline, the DXY is coming into support around the 100 level, which has proven to be a resilient bounce point multiple times. However, each bounce appears to be getting smaller, which might indicate growing downward pressure.

This support level adds an interesting dynamic to the market as traders watch for potential price reaction. Todays US CPI print may hold the key to determining the DXY's future trajectory. If the CPI data is reported higher than expected, it could potentially fuel speculation of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

In such a scenario, we might see the DXY experiencing a short-term rebound, as higher interest rates tend to attract investors seeking stronger returns. On the other hand, if the CPI data comes in lower than expected, market participants might interpret it as a sign that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its current pause in interest rate hikes during their upcoming FOMC meetings. If that occurs, it could potentially exert downward pressure on the US Dollar.

A more accommodative monetary policy stance may reduce the attractiveness of the USD to investors seeking higher yields, leading to a potential decline in its value against other currencies and potentially sending the DXY below 100 for the first time since early 2022. US CPI will be released at 08:30 EDT, YoY is expected to come in at 3.1%, with MoM expected at 0.3%