市场资讯及洞察

EURUSD is once again at an interesting technical level coming into key US data this week. After holding firm in a rising channel for most of 2023, price fell away in early September. This coincided with the price also falling below the 200 SMA which also acted as support multiple times in 2023 so far.

After bouncing nicely on the first horizontal support zone, we saw this level fail last week. A couple of days of positive trading sees price back up at this key zone, where we will be waiting to see if that horizontal support flips to resistance to bounce price back south and continue the downward trend. With the US interest rate decision out on Wednesday, we could be in for some volatility on this pair.

The market is currently predicting a 99% change of a continued pause, keeping rates at 5.5%. Any deviation from this is likely to cause some big movements in the USD, and this pair. With mixed inflation data out lately and oil prices soaring, this will be an important decision for the US Fed.

If the 1% probability occurs and the Fed hikes rate, this will likely see strength form in the dollar. With price currently at some key technical levels going into big economic data, it could be an interesting trading period for EURUSD this week.

EURUSD is heading into today’s knife-edge ECB rate decision lacking any real direction after Wednesdays CPI inspired choppy performance. Markets are split on today’s ECB rate decision with money markets pricing around a 65% chance of a 25bps rate hike, but a slight majority of economists polled by Bloomberg expecting a hold. Against this backdrop traders seem to be taking a wait and see approach with EURUSD unchanged, trading in a tight range in Thursdays APAC session and so far in EU session.

This will change at 12:15pm GMT as the ECB announces its rate decision, with a split market there will be almost certain volatility in EURUSD whichever way the ECB goes, with markets pricing in a 65% chance of a hike the risk on balance does seem skewed to the downside for EURUSD. A lot will also depend on the guidance released with the rate decision and the press conference 30 minutes after. No hike and a statement anything less than ultra hawkish will likely see a sharp drop in EURUSD initially, possibly testing the June and September lows support zone just under 1.07.

This will be a key area to watch after the initial reaction. A Hike of 25bp will likely see an initial pop in EURUSD, but attention will then turn to the statement. The ECB is expected to stick with the data dependent narrative as to its future moves, but it will be hints of possible further hikes (hawkish) or hints that they may be at the peak (dovish) which will likely drive the Euro once the initial reaction is done.

Even if we get the 25bp hike today money markets are pricing in 23bp of hikes this year already, this should cap any sustained rise in the Euro after a likely initial spike higher unless the statement hints strongly of more to come, which against a backdrop of a slowing EU economy seems unlikely. The key level to watch to the upside is the psychological 1.08 level, which would also bring EURUSD up to its trendline resistance and would see hard going for further gains unless at a technical perspective. The ECB rate decision will be released at 12:15 GMT with the presser at 12:45 GMT.

WTI Crude oil got off to a flyer on Monday open as news broke of conflict in the Middle East saw a hefty risk premium being priced in fueled by fears of supply disruptions. It seems some of those fears have abated and along with a massive crude inventory build of almost 13mm barrels reported by API on Wednesday, a classic gap fill chart pattern has formed on USOUSD after a steep drop, with USOUSD currently trading at 83.37, down markedly from the conflict spike high of 87.65 in Monday’s session. Geopolitical risk will be very much at the forefront of Oil traders’ minds with an escalation and/or expansion of the current conflict very much having the ability to cause high volatility in oil, we do also have some important technical levels and scheduled economic announcements to watch for the remainder of the week’s trading.

Chart Technicals: Monday’s gap open found resistance at the upward trend line, which up until early October has been a significant support level, to the upside this will be the next technical level to watch, around the 87.225 zone, a retake of this trendline support could then see USOUSD next testing the 23.6 fib level at 88.958 which had also offered support during September. To the downside Fridays low and the nearby 50% fib level at 81.333 will be the first major technical level, a break of this support zone will indicate a possible leg down to the 61.8 fib level around 76.867, which was also a swing low support level back in August. Along with further updates from the Middle East, tonight’s US CPI figure will also be important to watch, a low reading will cheer market participants that are banking on a less aggressive Federal Reserve, this will likely see risk assets rally, and Oil along with them as a less aggressive Fed will take the shackles off the US economy and have oil repricing for a more robust demand.

Global markets head into the new week with one eye on ongoing geopolitical pressures and one eye on US data and comments from Federal Reserve members as we come into the last week before the blackout period ahead of the November 2 FOMC meeting. Along with the geopolitical backdrop there is some key scheduled data this week the traders will be watching with keen interest. These are the markets I’ll be watching especially closely this week.

AUDUSD The Aussie had a tough week as risk sentiment soured somewhat in global markets, and an announcement of Chinese stimulus disappointing the market in its scope. AUDUSD did find good support at the November ’22 lows of 0.6280, a level which has now become key for AUDUSD bulls, a break here has a chart with fresh air until the major 0.62 support level. Aussie watchers this week have a talk by new RBA Governor Bullock and Australian Employment data to look forward to, along with some important data from the US including retail sales and unemployment claims.

Market sentiment will also play a part in the performance of the risk sensitive AUD. Gold Gold benefitted from its safe haven status, strongly rallying all of last week with XAUUSD finishing up around 5% for the week. There was a monster push higher on Friday, with a similar move in the Oil market as traders rushed to exit shorts before the weekend in both markets.

XAUUSD pushed up to its 50% Fib resistance level at 1940 on Friday, today in the APAC session we have seen a modest pullback as presumably some safe haven traders are unwinding longs. Key levels to watch this week will be the 1940 level to the upside, a break and hold here would point to a technical leg higher, to the downside, the 1905 Fib, mid-September lows and upper trend channel support level all pretty much line up and will be an important area of support if XAUUSD is to hold last week’s gains. Oil WTI Crude oil had a choppy and volatile week, pushed and pulled around by conflict in the Middle East and oil storage data.

A gap open higher on Monday retraced during the week until, like Gold, a monster move higher on Friday with no-one wanting to be short going into the weekend and the unknowns of the continued conflict. After recently breaking the medium term trendline that had been in play since July. USOUSD has found this level now become resistance at around the 88.10 USD a barrel level and is shaping to be a key level to the upside.

To the downside the gap fill support level at 83.20 will the support level to watch. Beyond the charts geopolitical events will also play a significant role in Oil price movements this week.

Bitcoin traders had some excitement in the session overnight, with some false news sending price rising over 7% in a few minutes. A tweet from a well-known crypto news website, Cointelegraph, stated that the SEC had approved a Bitcoin Spot ETF from BlackRock. Markets temporarily rallied off the back of this news, until it was quickly squashed by BlackRock who confirmed it was false and their Spot ETF was still under review from the SEC.

Price quickly cleared all the gains, however, BTC is still trading up over 4% for the daily session. Technically, BTC is still trending in the right direction, with price reclaiming a diagonal trendline that was broken a few days ago. Currently sitting at the midpoint of a large range that has been holding firm since March.

If the momentum continues, we could see price moving up towards the next major resistance level around 30k USD. On the bearish side, there appears to be a large Head & Shoulders pattern forming. If we see the price continue to rise and then start falling away before taking out the July highs, there could be a good case for the Head & Shoulders pattern to play out.

Whatever way we see the price move in the following weeks, we could be in for some volatility as the markets appear to be reacting heavily to news events. With a number of US Fed officials speaking this week, we could see some further volatility as the markets try and predict what is in store for the US economy.

热门话题澳大利亚经济近期的关键数据进一步揭示了通货膨胀压力的复杂动态。根据最新公布的澳大利亚统计局（ABS）数据，截至 2023 年 10 月，消费者价格指数（CPI）在过去 12 个月内上涨了4.9%。这一数字虽然略低于市场普遍预期的 5.2%，却仍然反映了通货膨胀在澳大利亚经济中的持续存在。

澳大利亚央行在 12 月 5 日的年度最后一次董事会会议上维持现金利率的决定备受关注。尽管 CPI 的增速略低于预期，但央行董事会需要审慎权衡通胀风险和经济复苏的平衡。这一决定将深刻影响货币政策的走向，进一步引导市场对于未来经济走势的预期。澳洲联储行长：紧缩政策应“谨慎一点”澳大利亚联邦储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克周二发表讲话，对进一步紧缩货币政策提出“谨慎一点”的建议。这一表态引发市场对于下周加息可能性的担忧，市场预期下周加息的概率降至仅 10%。布洛克行长在讲话中指出，当前需要谨慎平衡通胀风险和经济复苏需求，突显了央行在全球不确定环境下的谨慎态度。投资者将密切关注市场反应，特别是货币市场和股市的波动。

澳元前景展望：美元疲软提振汇率自11月初以来，由于美元疲软，澳元按贸易加权计算已经上涨了2.2%。这在一定程度上受到了美联储结束加息预期的影响，将澳元汇率从 US63.2 美分推升至 US66.6 美分。如果这一趋势持续，可能对进口成本形成下行压力。尽管最新的CPI数据略优于预期，但这似乎对澳元的影响有限，分钟图来看该消息对澳元汇率波动影响有限，澳元未来可能延续盘整的走势。值得关注的是，澳联储对抗通胀的决心将限制澳元的下行空间。至于上行空间，需密切留意美元的强弱表现，鉴于当前美元的疲软态势，建议保持关注。

澳大利亚10月CPI数据解读澳大利亚最新公布的10月CPI数据显示，在剔除波动性项目（汽车燃料、水果、蔬菜和假日旅行）后，潜在的价格压力有所缓解。10月份的年涨幅为5.1%，较9月份的5.5%略有下降。

具体来看，10月份年度增长的主要贡献者包括住房（+6.1%）、食品和非酒精饮料（+5.3%）以及交通（+5.9%）。住房年增长率为6.1%，较9月份的7.2%略有降低。新住宅价格上涨4.7%，为自2021年8月以来的最低年度涨幅，建筑材料价格上涨的速度也因供应状况改善而减缓。租金价格在截至10月的12个月内上涨了6.6%，较9月份的7.6%略有减缓。这主要是因为自2023年9月20日起生效的联邦租金援助增加，否则租金将上涨8.3%。同时，由于全球油价上涨，10月份汽车燃料价格较去年同期上涨了8.6%，较9月份的19.7%略有下降。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师