市场资讯及洞察
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本来今天想聊聊澳洲央行副行长最近公开谈到的有关澳洲有可能陷入经济低速增长的怪圈的问题,但是想想过去几篇文章都是说澳洲的,自己都觉得有点过于多了。但是很多内容不是我不想说,说国内经济情况,就怕你懂的,说欧美呢,估计大家也没啥兴趣看,说数字货币,也容易被黄标,导致我都不知道说什么好。那想来想去,最近看似比较大的事件就是美国国会关于预算用完,政府停摆的讨论的。
我们都知道,几乎每年来那么一次的停摆,今年又来了。这次停摆的时间再次打破历史记录,到上周末为止,已经超过38天了。没钱发工资、预算批不下来、议会还在吵。看着熟悉吧?因为这已经不是第一次了。过去10年,美国政府停摆过4次,每次都是在最后一刻“凑合”过关。从奥巴马到拜登,再到现在的老川,都一样。
有人说这就是美国政治的一部分,可在投资眼里,这更像是一种系统性疲态——就是那个世界最强信用体的裂缝,越来越多了。而且每次的解决方案都是很不要脸的继续提高债务上限,换句话说就是多印一点美元。
BUT, 就算再无赖,也得按照自己定的规矩来:
美国财政部的数字摆在那儿:
截至2025年10月底,美国的联邦总债务已经突破34.9万亿美元,还在以每秒钟大约4万美元的速度增加。光是2024财年,财政赤字就超过1.7万亿美元。而且更离谱的是,光“还利息”这一项,2025年预计就要花掉1.1万亿美元。什么意思?
就是美国政府借的钱,不是用来搞建设、科研或就业,而是越来越多地在还旧账的利息。这像不像信用卡欠多了,每月只够还最低额?加入一艘航母需要1000亿美元造价(不包括后期维护保养),那每年美国国债需要支付的利息就等于10艘航母的造价。
再看点细的。现在美国政府每收进1块钱税,大概要花掉1块三。财政支出和收入差了三成,完全靠举债撑着。以前大家信美国债是“无风险收益”,现在越来越多的投资机构开始犹豫了。这么每年收100花130,总不是个办法啊,这要是某一天出现点啥问题,是不是之前发美债的都有可能不算了?
那我们老百姓这么想,自然其他国家也会担忧。所以到2024年底,日本和中国这两大美国国债持有人,都在减持美债。日本在过去一年里减少了大概500亿美元持仓,中国更是创下了十年新低,只剩不到7700亿美元。
什么意思?全球主要买家在撤退。买这个美元纸币,太没有安全感了。买了也不是自己的,说查封就查封,说不能用就不能用。这算什么?当甲方还要这么受气。
讲真,这种对美元信用体系开始怀疑的局面在历史上是第一次。美国长期靠发债维持政府运转、靠美元霸权转嫁通胀。可现在,财政失衡、政治对抗、地缘风险……都在削弱那个“美元信仰”。
你想啊,美元强的底层逻辑是什么?是航母和F22,哦不对,说错,重来啊,美元的底层逻辑是什么?是信任。
大家相信美国政府永远能还钱、永远有能力印钱、永远不会倒。可现在连他们自己内部都吵得不可开交,国会关门、债务上限拉扯、甚至连总统都公开说“预算快撑不住”。美元的信任体系开始打折。
这时候你就得想:如果世界对美元信心动摇,那资金往哪跑?
答案其实很简单——黄金。(其实数字货币也起到了部分作用,但是因为过于分散,种类太多,导致资金无法集中)
别看黄金没利息、也不分红,但它有个谁都替代不了的特性:它不是谁欠谁的债。
你拿着美债,信的是美国政府的信用;你拿着黄金,信的是全人类几千年的共识。几千年前的埃及法老都爱这个,肯定没错。
最近几个月黄金的表现也印证了这点。
2024年年底,国际金价突破每盎司2400美元的新高,到了2025年10月,又一次冲上2500美元附近。你说这只是地缘政治?那只是表面。深层原因,是全球在寻找美元之外的安全锚。
咱看印度、土耳其、俄罗斯这些国家央行,去年都在疯狂买金。根据世界黄金协会的数据,2024年各国央行净增持黄金超1000吨,创下历史第二高。
这说明:连各国政府都不太敢再押宝美元。我的看法很简单:
黄金这波不是短线冲动,而是长期趋势在切换。
美元几十年的霸权红利,靠的是全球信任。可当信任开始松动,这个故事的主角可能要换了。除非美国再次把老二老三整服气了,之后各位小弟就会再次对大哥的地位不会质疑了。作为群众,咱们其实不希望看到这一天到来,不论结局谁赢,期间的不可控因素太多,一旦一个不小心,咱们就要见证咱们现代人类最后的辉煌了。
最后,我不建议大家一股脑地“梭哈黄金”,但起码你得让自己有点配置。就像以前老人说的——“仓里没点金,心里没底气。”
那具体咋搞?
你可以分几种方式:
1. 实物金:最笨但最踏实。买金币、金条,放保险箱。但是每次买卖差价几乎等于价格的10%,交易成本极高。
2. 纸黄金/ETF:操作灵活,适合不想拿实物的人。缺点是,手里没有那个沉甸甸的金子,总感觉只是个数字而已。
3. 黄金矿业股:风险高、弹性大,适合激进投资者。这个就看人品了,如果运气好,5倍10倍不是梦,当然,更大的机率是,没挖到,宝马变单车。
从长远来看,我个人倾向于使用自己资金10-30%购买ETF作为“稳健基础”。这不是投机,而是保险。你不指望它天天涨,但万一美元系统出事,它能救你一命。
再说一句现实点的。
现在美国债务增长速度远高于GDP增长。也就是说,他们靠印钱维持系统平衡。通胀虽然被压了一点,但核心通胀还在3%左右,远高于美联储2%的目标。
这意味着:美联储降息空间有限,财政却还要继续借钱。
那结果?
货币越来越多,信用越来越稀。
黄金,就是对冲这种“信用通胀”的最好工具。
有人问:“那美元真的会崩吗?”
麦哥的回答是:不会马上崩,但它会慢慢失去神圣光环。这不,11艘航母还是很厉害的。
历史上没有哪个超级货币能永远称王。英镑用了100多年从巅峰掉下来,美元可能也会经历同样过程。如果大家学过历史应该可以知道,黄金在1971年美元脱钩后,从每盎司35美元涨到现在的2500美元。它没变,是货币的实际价值在变。
所以,简单总结:
美国政府停摆也许能暂时拖过去,债务上限也许能再抬一点,但信任这种东西,一旦开始透支,就很难补回来。你不能指望一个连工资都快发不出的政府,永远当世界的“信用中心”。美元可能还会强一阵子,但我认为黄金这波超级大牛市,才刚刚开始。
各位读者,我不是劝你买金发财,而是提醒你:这个世界的信用体系,正在慢慢换轨。
写完以后,赶紧用上网乘着黑五买一堆没用的垃圾。虽然咱们知道黄金美丽,价格长虹,但是咱日常生活,还是纸币方便啊。
生活还得过,但是咱们脑子不能糊涂。对吧?
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American electric vehicle Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) reported the latest financial results for Q1 after the market close in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: June 2009 Headquarters: Irvine, California, United States Number of employees: 14,122 (December 2022) Industry: automotive, energy storage Key people: R. J.
Scaringe (CEO) The results The company reported revenue that fell slightly short of analyst estimates at $661 million (up from $95 million from Q1 2022) vs. $664.396 million expected. Loss per share reported at -$1.25 per share, which was less than -$1.622 loss per share expected. Rivian reiterated that it is on track to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023, which would represent a 100% increase from last year.
Company commentary "In the first quarter of 2023, we produced 9,395 and delivered 7,946 vehicles. This progress was despite our commercial van production line being down for a significant portion of the quarter as we introduced our Enduro motor and LFP technology into the commercial van production process," company said in a letter to shareholders. "We expect to continue to see a variance between production and delivery volumes as we ramp our production facility." "Operating and financial results during the first quarter of 2023 were in-line with our expectations and as a result, we are reaffirming our previously disclosed 2023 guidance of 50,000 total units of production, $(4,300) million in Adjusted EBITDA, and $2,000 million in capital expenditures." "We want to thank our employees, customers, suppliers, partners, communities, and shareholders for their continued support of our vision." The latest results and comments from the company had a positive impact on the share price. The stock was up by around +4% on Wednesday at $14.44 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +1.94% 3 months: -27.96% Year-to-date: -21.51% 1 year: -29.78% Rivian price targets Evercore ISI: $25 Cantor Fitzgerald: $27 Canaccord Genuity: $40 JP Morgan: $23 A. Davidson: $16 Rivian is the 1181 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $13.53 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Rivian Automotive Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


The Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting today was supposed to be a done deal of another hold in rates, with futures markets pricing in an over 90% chance of that being the outcome. The RBA however, showing their determination to get an inflation rate still well outside their target band instead delivered a 25bp hike after last months pause, surprising the market and seeing a dramatic reaction in the Aussie dollar (pump) and equity markets. (dump) AUDUSD and ASX200 reaction: Adding to this was what was see as a hawkish statement accompanying the decision, helping to cement the original moves which look now to have some legs, likely seeing the AUDUSD break the 0.67 level this session. *RBA RAISES CASH RATE TARGET 25 BASIS POINTS TO 3.85% *RBA: SOME FURTHER TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY MAY BE REQUIRED *RBA SAYS RATE RISE TO HELP ANCHOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS


Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) announced third quarter fiscal 2023 before the opening bell in the US on Friday. World’s largest consumer goods company beat both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 101,000 (2021) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S.
Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $20.1 billion vs. $19.28 billion expected. EPS reported at $1.37 per share vs. analyst estimate of $1.323 per share.
CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 in what continues to be a very difficult cost and operating environment,'' Jon Moeller, CEO of Procter & Gamble said about the latest results in a press release. ''Our team’s strong execution of our strategies and our progress through three quarters enable us to raise our fiscal year outlook for sales growth and cash return to shareowners and maintain our guidance range for EPS growth despite continued cost and foreign exchange headwinds. We remain committed to our integrated strategies of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization structure. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum, and we’re confident they remain the right strategies to deliver balanced growth and value creation going forward,'' he concluded.
The latest results had a positive impact on the stock on Friday. Share price was up by around 3%, trading at around $156.44 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +6.58% 3 months: +9.38% Year-to-date: +3.18% 1 year: -3.02% Procter & Gamble price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $147 Berenberg Bank: $141 Evercore ISI: $160 Wells Fargo: $162 CFRA: $152 Procter & Gamble Company is the 20 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $369.12 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


Natural Gas price action has had an amazing two years, with the usually pretty boring commodity showing extreme volatility pushing it to all time highs before a dramatic collapse seeing it back where it started in 2020. Like all the energy complex, Oil being a good example, the start of the Covid panic saw wild price fluctuations as traders came to terms with lockdowns and the related slowdowns, followed by unprecedented Central Bank stimulus. But the real push higher in Natural Gas came at the start of the war in Ukraine and the loss of Russian Gas for European suppliers, with fears of a cold winter with a much constrained supply of gas seeing the price spike to all-time highs.
But instead of a long cold gas starved winter the northern hemisphere experienced higher-than-average temperatures which meant the gas supply crunch wasn’t as dire as feared which sent liquefied natural gas prices tumbling to pre covid levels from a record all-time high. With Natural gas back to historical support levels there is a technical and fundamental case for a move higher in the near future. From a technical perspective, on a daily chart we can see that Natural Gas has found strong support since February around the 2.09 level, an historic level it found support at before the pandemic as well, we can also wee a rounding bottom pattern forming on a daily chart, this is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns in technical analysis.
According to a recent interview with Bloomberg by Yukio Kani, the chairman and CEO of Jera Co which is the worlds largest buyer of LNG, he is expecting a price spike again in natural gas this year due to Chinese re-opening demand, unusually war Northern Hemisphere weather increasing energy demand for cooling purposes and increased import capacity in Europe and China. Certainly, a market worth watching going forward!


US technology giant Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) released the latest financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, after the market closed in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: April 4, 1975 Headquarters: Washington, United States Number of employees: 221,000 (2022) Industry: Information technology Key people: Satya Nadella (executive chairman and CEO), Brad Smith (vice chairman and president), Bill Gates (technical adviser) The results Microsoft reported revenue that beat analyst estimates at $52.857 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. $51.019 billion. Earnings per share also topped expectations at $2.45 per share (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $2.239 per share estimate.
Company commentary Satya Nadella, chairman and CEO of Microsoft commented on the rise of AI and highlighted company’s focus on the software: ''The world's most advanced AI models are coming together with the world's most universal user interface - natural language - to create a new era of computing.'' ''Across the Microsoft Cloud, we are the platform of choice to help customers get the most value out of their digital spend and innovate for this next generation of AI.'' Amy Hood, executive vice president and CFO highlighted Microsoft Cloud’s revenue for the quarter which increased year-over-year: ''Focused execution by our sales teams and partners in this dynamic environment resulted in Microsoft Cloud revenue of $28.5 billion, up 22% (up 25% in constant currency) year-over-year.'' Share of Microsoft were down by -2.25% on Tuesday at $275.33 before the results were announced. The stock rose by around +4% in the after-hours trading as results beat estimates. Stock performance 1 month: +0.07% 3 months: +13.79% Year-to-date: +14.84% 1 year: +1.92% Microsoft price targets Bank of America: $320 Citigroup: $332 Jefferies: $325 Goldman Sachs: $325 Cowen & Co.: $300 Microsoft Corporation is the 3 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $2.050 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Microsoft Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


US food giant The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) reported Q1 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The company topped both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Company overview • Founded: July 2, 2015 • Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States • Number of employees: 37,000 (2022) • Industry: Food • Key people: Alex Behring (Chairman), John Cahill (Vice chairman), Miguel Patricio (CEO), Paulo Basilio (CFO) The results Kraft Heinz reported revenue of $6.489 billion vs. $6.394 billion expected.
Revenues were up by 7.3% year-over-year. EPS reported at $0.68 per share (up by 7.9% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $0.597 per share. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share.
CEO commentary "We delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2023, with net sales growth across both our North America and International zones that continues to be fueled by Foodservice, Emerging Markets, and U.S. Retail GROW platforms," Kraft Heinz CEO, Miguel Patricio said in a press release. "I am very proud of the entire Kraft Heinz team as we continue to deliver on what we can control by unlocking efficiencies and reinvesting in our brands and capabilities. Our team's continued focus on executing against the strategy is coming to fruition, but it's not time to declare victory just yet.
We remain committed to advancing our business transformation, and we are confident we have the right strategy in place to win with customers and consumers, and to deliver profitable growth and create value for our stockholders," Patricio concluded. The latest results had a positive impact on the stock. Shares were up by over +4% at $40.95 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: +5.28% 3 months: +1.33% Year-to-date: +0.91% 1 year: -5.17% Kraft Heinz price targets JP Morgan: $44 Mizuho Securities: $50 Berenberg Bank: $39 BNP Paribas: $39 Goldman Sachs: $43 The Kraft Heinz Company is the 318 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $50.46 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Kraft Heinz Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Macrotrends