市场资讯及洞察
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本来今天想聊聊澳洲央行副行长最近公开谈到的有关澳洲有可能陷入经济低速增长的怪圈的问题,但是想想过去几篇文章都是说澳洲的,自己都觉得有点过于多了。但是很多内容不是我不想说,说国内经济情况,就怕你懂的,说欧美呢,估计大家也没啥兴趣看,说数字货币,也容易被黄标,导致我都不知道说什么好。那想来想去,最近看似比较大的事件就是美国国会关于预算用完,政府停摆的讨论的。
我们都知道,几乎每年来那么一次的停摆,今年又来了。这次停摆的时间再次打破历史记录,到上周末为止,已经超过38天了。没钱发工资、预算批不下来、议会还在吵。看着熟悉吧?因为这已经不是第一次了。过去10年,美国政府停摆过4次,每次都是在最后一刻“凑合”过关。从奥巴马到拜登,再到现在的老川,都一样。
有人说这就是美国政治的一部分,可在投资眼里,这更像是一种系统性疲态——就是那个世界最强信用体的裂缝,越来越多了。而且每次的解决方案都是很不要脸的继续提高债务上限,换句话说就是多印一点美元。
BUT, 就算再无赖,也得按照自己定的规矩来:
美国财政部的数字摆在那儿:
截至2025年10月底,美国的联邦总债务已经突破34.9万亿美元,还在以每秒钟大约4万美元的速度增加。光是2024财年,财政赤字就超过1.7万亿美元。而且更离谱的是,光“还利息”这一项,2025年预计就要花掉1.1万亿美元。什么意思?
就是美国政府借的钱,不是用来搞建设、科研或就业,而是越来越多地在还旧账的利息。这像不像信用卡欠多了,每月只够还最低额?加入一艘航母需要1000亿美元造价(不包括后期维护保养),那每年美国国债需要支付的利息就等于10艘航母的造价。
再看点细的。现在美国政府每收进1块钱税,大概要花掉1块三。财政支出和收入差了三成,完全靠举债撑着。以前大家信美国债是“无风险收益”,现在越来越多的投资机构开始犹豫了。这么每年收100花130,总不是个办法啊,这要是某一天出现点啥问题,是不是之前发美债的都有可能不算了?
那我们老百姓这么想,自然其他国家也会担忧。所以到2024年底,日本和中国这两大美国国债持有人,都在减持美债。日本在过去一年里减少了大概500亿美元持仓,中国更是创下了十年新低,只剩不到7700亿美元。
什么意思?全球主要买家在撤退。买这个美元纸币,太没有安全感了。买了也不是自己的,说查封就查封,说不能用就不能用。这算什么?当甲方还要这么受气。
讲真,这种对美元信用体系开始怀疑的局面在历史上是第一次。美国长期靠发债维持政府运转、靠美元霸权转嫁通胀。可现在,财政失衡、政治对抗、地缘风险……都在削弱那个“美元信仰”。
你想啊,美元强的底层逻辑是什么?是航母和F22,哦不对,说错,重来啊,美元的底层逻辑是什么?是信任。
大家相信美国政府永远能还钱、永远有能力印钱、永远不会倒。可现在连他们自己内部都吵得不可开交,国会关门、债务上限拉扯、甚至连总统都公开说“预算快撑不住”。美元的信任体系开始打折。
这时候你就得想:如果世界对美元信心动摇,那资金往哪跑?
答案其实很简单——黄金。(其实数字货币也起到了部分作用,但是因为过于分散,种类太多,导致资金无法集中)
别看黄金没利息、也不分红,但它有个谁都替代不了的特性:它不是谁欠谁的债。
你拿着美债,信的是美国政府的信用;你拿着黄金,信的是全人类几千年的共识。几千年前的埃及法老都爱这个,肯定没错。
最近几个月黄金的表现也印证了这点。
2024年年底,国际金价突破每盎司2400美元的新高,到了2025年10月,又一次冲上2500美元附近。你说这只是地缘政治?那只是表面。深层原因,是全球在寻找美元之外的安全锚。
咱看印度、土耳其、俄罗斯这些国家央行,去年都在疯狂买金。根据世界黄金协会的数据,2024年各国央行净增持黄金超1000吨,创下历史第二高。
这说明:连各国政府都不太敢再押宝美元。我的看法很简单:
黄金这波不是短线冲动,而是长期趋势在切换。
美元几十年的霸权红利,靠的是全球信任。可当信任开始松动,这个故事的主角可能要换了。除非美国再次把老二老三整服气了,之后各位小弟就会再次对大哥的地位不会质疑了。作为群众,咱们其实不希望看到这一天到来,不论结局谁赢,期间的不可控因素太多,一旦一个不小心,咱们就要见证咱们现代人类最后的辉煌了。
最后,我不建议大家一股脑地“梭哈黄金”,但起码你得让自己有点配置。就像以前老人说的——“仓里没点金,心里没底气。”
那具体咋搞?
你可以分几种方式:
1. 实物金:最笨但最踏实。买金币、金条,放保险箱。但是每次买卖差价几乎等于价格的10%,交易成本极高。
2. 纸黄金/ETF:操作灵活,适合不想拿实物的人。缺点是,手里没有那个沉甸甸的金子,总感觉只是个数字而已。
3. 黄金矿业股:风险高、弹性大,适合激进投资者。这个就看人品了,如果运气好,5倍10倍不是梦,当然,更大的机率是,没挖到,宝马变单车。
从长远来看,我个人倾向于使用自己资金10-30%购买ETF作为“稳健基础”。这不是投机,而是保险。你不指望它天天涨,但万一美元系统出事,它能救你一命。
再说一句现实点的。
现在美国债务增长速度远高于GDP增长。也就是说,他们靠印钱维持系统平衡。通胀虽然被压了一点,但核心通胀还在3%左右,远高于美联储2%的目标。
这意味着:美联储降息空间有限,财政却还要继续借钱。
那结果?
货币越来越多,信用越来越稀。
黄金,就是对冲这种“信用通胀”的最好工具。
有人问:“那美元真的会崩吗?”
麦哥的回答是:不会马上崩,但它会慢慢失去神圣光环。这不,11艘航母还是很厉害的。
历史上没有哪个超级货币能永远称王。英镑用了100多年从巅峰掉下来,美元可能也会经历同样过程。如果大家学过历史应该可以知道,黄金在1971年美元脱钩后,从每盎司35美元涨到现在的2500美元。它没变,是货币的实际价值在变。
所以,简单总结:
美国政府停摆也许能暂时拖过去,债务上限也许能再抬一点,但信任这种东西,一旦开始透支,就很难补回来。你不能指望一个连工资都快发不出的政府,永远当世界的“信用中心”。美元可能还会强一阵子,但我认为黄金这波超级大牛市,才刚刚开始。
各位读者,我不是劝你买金发财,而是提醒你:这个世界的信用体系,正在慢慢换轨。
写完以后,赶紧用上网乘着黑五买一堆没用的垃圾。虽然咱们知道黄金美丽,价格长虹,但是咱日常生活,还是纸币方便啊。
生活还得过,但是咱们脑子不能糊涂。对吧?
免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。
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Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) reported the latest financial results for Q1 on Wednesday, beating analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Company overview Founded: 1998 (via the merger of BankAmerica & NationsBank) Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of branches: 3,900 retail financial centers Number of employees: 217,000 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Brian Moynihan (Chairman and CEO), Anne Finucane (Co-Vice Chairman), Bruce Thompson (Co-Vice Chairman) The results Bank of America reported revenue of $26.391 billion for the first quarter (up by 13% year-over-year) vs. $25.161 billion estimate. EPS reported at $0.94 per share (up by 18% from the same period last year) vs. $0.807 per share expected.
CEO commentary ''Every business segment performed well as we grew client relationships and accounts organically and at a strong pace. Led by 13% year-over-year revenue growth, we delivered our seventh straight quarter of operating leverage. We further strengthened our balance sheet and maintained strong liquidity.
We delivered earnings of $0.94 per share, up 18% over Q1-22, in an economy with modestly slower GDP growth. Our results demonstrate how our company’s decade-long commitment to responsible growth helped to provide stability in changing economic environments,'' CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan said in a statement. Moynihan also touched on the state of the US economy: ''Everything points to a relatively mild recession given the amount of stimulus that was paid to people and the money they have left over.'' ''At the end of the day, we don’t see the activity on the consumer side slowing at a pace that would indicate that, but we would see commercial customers are being more careful.'' ''The fact that unemployment is still 3.5% [indicates] full employment-plus.
And then the wage growth is slowing and tipping over.'' ''So the signs of inflation are tipping down and it’s still there but that translates into relatively good activity so we see a slight recession and we’ll see what happens,'' he concluded. The latest results had little impact on the share price on Tuesday. The stock was up by +0.63% at $30.54 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +6.89% 3 months: -11.47% Year-to-date: -7.73% 1 year: -22.77% Bank of America Corporation price targets Barclays: $39 JP Morgan: $34 Morgan Stanley: $31 Wells Fargo: $45 Goldman Sachs: $35 RBC Capital: $34 Oppenheimer: $44 Odeon Capital: $35.20 Bank of America Corporation is the 38 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $244.45 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Bank of America Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


Major Asian stock indexes are following the lead from Wall St where US stocks finished broadly lower in a choppy, low volume session as economic news disappointed, Fed talking heads remained hawkish and a mixed batch of earnings. The ASX200 and Nikkei down around 0.24% while the Hang Seng down just over 0.5 a % FX Markets Have mostly continued with US dollar strength, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars have both declined against the greenback in the Asian session so far. The Aussie dollar is looking to test the 0.67 level where it found support yesterday, and the Kiwi dollar in similar action looking to also test yesterdays lows at 0.6150.
Both the Aussie and Kiwi suffering from a risk off mood to the markets on the weak economic data released in the US overnight. The JPY is bucking the USD strength trend though with a Hotter than expected CPI figure released today supporting the Yen as well as safe haven flows. core inflation came in at 3.1% vs 3% expected. We also have a BoJ meeting next week, the first for the new governor and one where we may get a hawkish surprise regarding The BoJ policies going forward which seems to be adding to Yen strength. commodities Gold has modestly declined this morning, but holding just above the 2000 USD an ounce level where there has been a real battle between the bulls and the bears the last few days and will be an important level to watch going into tonight's US and European session.


World’s largest company Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) announced the latest financial results after the market closed in the US on Thursday. After disappointing results last quarter, the company bounced back in the fiscal 2023 second quarter ended April 1, 2023, topping revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview • Founded: April 1, 1976 • Headquarters: 1 Apple Park Way, Cupertino, California, United States • Number of employees: 164,000 (2022) • Industry: consumer electronics, software services, online services • Key people: Arthur D.
Levinson (chairman), Tim Cook (CEO), Jeff Williams (COO), Luca Maestri (CFO) The results Apple reported revenue of $94.836 billion for the quarter vs. $92.906 billion expected. Revenues were up down by 3% from the same period last year. EPS reported at $1.52 per share (unchanged year-over-year) vs. $1.429 per share expected.
The company announced a dividend of $0.24 per share. CEO commentary "We are pleased to report an all-time record in Services and a March quarter record for iPhone despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, and to have our installed base of active devices reach an all-time high," Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook said in a letter to investors. "We continue to invest for the long term and lead with our values, including making major progress toward building carbon neutral products and supply chains by 2030," Cook concluded. The stock was down by just shy of 1% at market close on Thursday at $165.77 a share.
Share price rose by around +2% in after-hours following the latest results. Stock performance • 1 month: +0.69% • 3 months: +9.93% • Year-to-date: +27.60% • 1 year: +5.75% Apple price targets • Rosenblatt: $173 • Baird: $180 • B of A Securities: $173 • Deutsche Bank: $170 • Barclays: $149 • JP Morgan: $190 • Wedbush: $205 • Credit Suisse: $188 Apple is the largest company in the world with a market cap of $2.640 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Apple Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) announced first quarter financial results before the market open on Thursday, setting a new quarterly revenue record. Company overview Founded: March 18, 1850 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 77,300 (December 2022) Industry: Banking, financial services Key people: Stephen J. Squeri (Chairman & CEO), Jeffrey C.
Campbell (Executive VP & CFO) The results American Express reported revenue that broke all previous quarterly records at $14.281 billion (up by 16% from the same period last year) vs. $13.981 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.40 per share (down by 12% year-over-year), falling short of analyst estimate of $2.656 per share. CEO commentary ''Our first-quarter results reflect strong growth in Card Member spending and continued high engagement with our premium products, tracking with the full-year 2023 guidance we provided in January, which we are reaffirming today, for revenue growth of 15 percent to 17 percent and earnings per share of $11.00 to $11.40,'' Stephen J.
Squeri, Chairman and CEO of the company said in a press release to investors. ''Revenue grew 22 percent from a year earlier to reach a quarterly record, as Card Member spending rose 16 percent on an FX-adjusted basis. Travel and Entertainment spending was particularly robust, growing 39 percent on an FX-adjusted basis and in March, we saw a record level of reservations booked on our Resy restaurant platform. We also saw an acceleration in spending in our International Card Services segment, which increased 29 percent on an FX-adjusted basis.
Spending on Goods and Services around the globe grew 9 percent on an FX-adjusted basis.'' ''Our customers have been resilient thus far in the face of slower macroeconomic growth, elevated inflation and higher interest rates, with credit performance remaining best-in-class. That said, we’re mindful of the mixed signals in the external environment.'' ''Based on our performance to date and the momentum we see in our business, we remain confident in our ability to achieve our longer-term growth plan aspirations,'' Squeri concluded. The stock was down by around -1% on Thursday at $162.41 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: -0.26% 3 months: +10.54% Year-to-date: +9.87% 1 year: -12.60% American Express price targets SVB Securities: $220 Piper Sandler: $179 BMO Capital: $197 Citigroup: $152 Jefferies: $170 American Express is the 109 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $120.91 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: American Express Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


USD was firmer on Tuesday amid a light news calendar sparse in any key risk events. The US Dollar index again having a choppy session in a tight range with EURUSD weakness giving the Dollar a tailwind, also helping the greenback was ramped up US growth forecasts from Goldman Sachs and the World Bank hitting the wires. EUR was the G10 underperformer to see EURUSD hit lows of 1.0668 before finding support at a Fib level, this following a miss in German Industrial orders and an ECB consumers survey showing a sharp decline in inflation expectations.
Adding to the dovish tone was comments from ECB member Knot (a known hawk) who made some dovish comments declaring “the worst of inflation is behind us”. More ECB talk is scheduled for Wednesday which could add to this narrative. CAD managed to eke out some gains against the Dollar in a whipsawing session, USDCAD seeing a low low of 1.3391, breaching the key support level at 1.34.CAD was initially weighed on by lower oil prices, but an improved growth outlook saw Crude oil rebound with the CAD following suit.
Later today CAD traders will have all eyes on the BoC rate decision where the Central Bank is expected to hold rates at 4.5%, but there is a distinct possibility of a 25bps hike in the wake of the recent beats on GDP and CPI readings. Current market pricing has a 46% chance of a hike priced in, so will be line ball. GBP and JPY were modestly higher against the USD on the session.
JPY pared some of its initial strength by a rise in UST yields widening the UST-JGB differential. GBPUSD traded within a tight range, printing a low of 1.2392 and a high of 1.2458. Weak home building figures and a rising recession fear capping gains on cable as the BoE's aggressive rate hiking campaign appears to be slowing the economy.
AUD was the clear G10 outperformer after the RBA surprised the market again with a 25bps hike to 4.10%, which along with a hawkish RBA statement noting further rate hikes “may be required” seeing AUDUSD hit a high of 0.6685, falling just short of the 200DMA at 0.6692 and holding most of the gains post announcement throughout the session. For AUD watchers today Q1 GDP will be released today at 11:30 AEST, though it could have limited impact given the RBA already opted to hike rates yesterday. Calendar of today’s major risk events:


AUD and NZD, being cyclical currencies (cyclical currencies being ones that are extra sensitive to global risk sentiment) took a big hit in Fridays session, dropping 1.1% and 1.3% respectively against the USD and remain under pressure today. Weak retail sales out of the US on Friday didn’t help risk sentiment, but the rout really started when the USD soared on hawkish comments from Fed governors, (Waller being the most forceful) which saw rate hike odds at the next Fed meeting push significantly higher. Both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars have suffered from a shift in market pricing for continuing rate hikes in the United States and Europe, with Fed Funds futures now showing an 80% chance of another Fed hike in May and flirting with the risk of a 50bp hike from the ECB as both banks Governors continue to talk tough on inflation.
AUDUSD AUDUSD is technically still in an uptrend with an upward sloping trend line still in place, AUD was helped along by stellar employment figures out of Australia last week, though the forcefulness of the rejection at the 0.68 USD resistance zone on Friday does put into question how much legs this short-term uptrend has. Traders looking to enter the AUDUSD need to keep these levels in mind, a break and hold of the major 0.68 resistance could signal a push higher and resumption of the uptrend, a solid break through the short term trend would likely see the AUDUSD test 2023 lows before finding much buying. NZDUSD The Kiwi is showing similar price action to AUDUSD, with its major resistance and an area of a real battle between the Bulls and the Bears just above the psychological 0.63 level, with some short term support around the 0.6170 level.
There was a major rejection of the 0.63 level on Friday, in similar price action to the AUD, this also pushed NZDUSD below its 100 Day SMA (which has now turned on a downward trajectory) and just holding above its support zone. Like the AUD, a break below this support zone could see the Kiwi test the 2023 lows around 0.6080 before seeing buyers come back in, any push above 0.63 is likely to see some pushback and volatility in the NZDUSD pair. AUDNZD Despite higher yields in New Zealand the AUDNZD pair has rallied strongly in recent days, helped along by some small pricing in of a RBA hike next month after the strong jobs report.
The pair has now risen well into the 1.08’s after pushing below its 10-year median of 1.07 earlier in the month, showing that AUDNZD continues to be a good buy under this level. In economic news out of Australia, the RBA Minutes form the last RBA meeting will be released tomorrow, which could give clues as to whether the hold is temporary or not, plus NZ CPI figures will be released on Thursday. Inflation figures have been very important in recent times as indicators of Central Bank actions, so we could see some excitement on this figure.